I'm here to bring you some patterns I've found after studying some bubbles that occurred in our history. The one I will present you is the NASDAQ .com bubble that happened in 2000
Please, keep in mind that I'm not trying to FUD or make bitcoin look bad. I want to see what people think of it.
Okay, so first lets talk about what happened in the bull run of the .com bubble: A lot of young folks were quitting their jobs to become "traders", we saw a lot of people getting millionaires, people saying that the .com was the future of the economy and it was a new technology that would change the world (and it did), it was impossible to crash because it was the future of the market. By the end of the crash, everybody was simply broke and only a few made money. But, the most important is that everyone made money in that market. You didn't have to have any special skills of trading or investing, you just had to put your money in there and then all of a sudden you were rich.
And what happened to bitcoin in the previous bull run? People quit their jobs, people got rich, everybody said it was impossible for it to crash because bitcoin and crypto are the future of the economy and whoever is saying it is (or was) a bubble didn't study crypto enough, it's a new technology and will change the future, etc., etc. <--- and those things you can actually see clearly, just go to any youtuber who was brave enough to make a video calling the bubble right in November or December and you can still see the comments. But only a few people lost their money until now. And, once again, everybody "made" money in the bull market of bitcoin.
come on guys, a market is not a place that any kid can make a lot of money and become rich. It's not a place where your barber who spends 12 hours a day working, and "invest" for half hour a week can make money that easy.
So let's take a look at the charts. They are both log scale, weekly time frame, with exponential moving averages of 21 and 55 weeks.
NASDAQ:
https://imgur.com/a/EaTVhbsBITCOIN:
https://imgur.com/a/N1ZucODI'm sorry, but I wasn't able to post the image directly.
They are practically the same. Do not tell me "you can't compare bitcoin with .com bubble, hur dur", because the movements in both cases are almost equal. Look at the MA
In order for this "bubble" to be complete, we must have a shake off of the vast majority of people that are in the market right now. It's the sad truth. The barber that bought bitcoin in 17k usd (and please, I have nothing against barbers, it's just an example) didn't quit yet because he still have 4k from the 10k he invested. He would have to see his money vanish from 10k to 1k or less to quit. The same that happened in the .com bubble, the dude that quit his job to invest was in permanent denial after losing 25k from the 50k he made. "Okay, I still have half of what I made, it's still pretty good", until it finally became zero and he was forced to go back to work and become a normie again.
If I am right in all I've said, bitcoin will hit 1300 usd before another major bull run by 2020
What are your thoughts? The only thing that keeps me optimistic about bitcoin is the fact that the economy is about to enter a credit crisis and the stocks are about to crash once again.
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