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1  Economy / Economics / Technical and fundamental analysis of the new upward trend in Bitcoin market on: April 24, 2018, 01:59:14 PM
So, the bull market is back and we are all very optimistic again.
Here I will try to do a bit of a trend analysis.
Let me just mention that most of the graphs were not made by me, but rather collected from other sources.

First of all, the question is whether we are in a bull run, bull trap, or a period with a double bottom.

1st, a bull trap
Let's take a look at this graph:


A bull trap would require one of the followin two things:
1. A nonsignificant price move or a move with low volume.
If you look at where I have put a purple line, it is where the upward trend started. If we consider it is a run from 6.838 USD to 9.310 USD, which makes 27%, I would not say it is insignificant, especially if we take a look at the rise of the volume.

2. A trap inside a trend shape.
If we look at Bitcoin price chart it doesn't say much, but maybe a market capitalization chart (blue line) can help here. We shouldn't really look at market cap, but it is only mathematics (total number of coins multiplied with price), and since it makes it easier to notice certain movements, then why not? Look at around 19th of March. There was an obvious bull trap. An uphill movement that stopped abruptly, after which a previous downward trend continued. This time the line broke the previous bull trap resistance point, and with large volume. Also, there was something similar to a short-term W double bottom shape forming (black and red circles), but the upper resistance has been broken here to.

2nd, a double bottom
Some people say we had could see a new bottom around June by looking at the charts from the previous years.
I totally agree with them that we should look at the previous charts. If anything is obvious with Bitcoin, it is that previous movements are repeating themselves.
Look at this graph:

The bottoms are repeating themselves with 2 months difference between them.

But look at the first graph again (Bitcoin graph from point 1).
We actually had a bottom after 5th of February. Then we had a top on 5th of March and straight downfall from there. We haven't reached a previous bottom, but we did find ourselves around there, and when? Around 5th of April. Hence 2 months difference. This is why I think we already had our double bottom and can expect the upward trend to continue from here.

Enough of techical analysis, let's go to fundamental.
Take a look at this interesting article, with which I totally agree by the way:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/bitcoin-ethereum-other-cryptocurrency-five-positive-factors-for-2018.html

1. Point 1 - problem with high fees and scalability will be solved with Lightning network. Maybe. I don't trade Bitcoin, so I cannot verify this, but with SegWit adoption Bitcoin transactions  already became really cheap: https://blockchain.info/tx/92785a57f6e9e9eb9d37a00e6e8be7f888376f65fa2b8f868db261cbf6cca7b0
That is move of 450 millions for 1.09$.
I borrowed this fact from stompix, thank you stompix.

2. & 3. Legitimate ICO's and regulation. Should we talk about regulation again? There is so much FUD over regulation and I will only repeat that the regulation is a good thing, especially as crypto world is really most of all lacking security. Regulation shouldn't be mistaken for prohibition.
Bolt Brownie has a nice topic about fighting the FUD with dividing news to actually bad and positive... Everything else is just noise.

Also most of the weak projects got shut down during the downward trend.

Regulation opens up space for point 5. and we could have already seen some news in this field too:

"Earlier this month, CCN reported that some of the largest institutional investors in the finance market including $8 billionaire George Soros, Rockefeller family’s venture capital fund VenRock, and the Rothschild have entered the cryptocurrency market.

The majority of investors were skeptical towards these investors entering the market when it has experienced one of the worst corrections in its history. But, historically, investors like Soros have tended to invest large sums of money in markets that are significantly down from their all-time highs, taking advantage of the downward trend."


Taken from this article: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-breaks-8000-for-first-time-since-march-real-momentum/

If we think about the fact that those people are so highly infulential that some of the conspiracty theoreticists consider them a part of the secret group controling the world by controlling the world's finances, then it should be enough to notice an obvious importance of this news.

Point 5. paves the way for point 4 - adoption. I really think that with regulation, funding and improved scalability we will see more and more traders accepting Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies as well).

Let's go further. There are other interesting theories around, for example I borrowed this one from jaysabi.

According to a recent article on CNBC, Tom Lee is attributing the current price weakness to selling by American consumers and crypto exchanges to satisfy tax liabilities. At least this is an interesting theory, but keep in mind he's only speculating like everyone else.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/wall-streets-tom-lee-predicts-massive-outflow-from-cryptocurrencies-ahead-of-tax-day.html

Key (speculative) points from Lee:

    U.S. households likely owe $25 billion in capital gains taxes for their cryptocurrency holdings
    Additional selling pressure by crypto exchanges sitting on over a billion dollars in profit denominated in btc/eth and are converting to USD to satisfy tax obligations
    tax-related selling represents a massive outflow from crypto to USD and historical estimates are each $1 of USD outflow is $20-$25 impact on crypto market value
    Expects btc to find footing after April 17
    Expects btc to reach $20,000 by mid-year and $25,000 by year-end


This run is also over and supported by some facts.

Then you have signals like this one:

https://www.ccn.com/cryptocurrency-market-will-get-much-bigger-former-jpmorgan-banker/

Are you still afraid of those big institutions that could prevent a crypto revolution from happening? Maybe it is an isolated case, but if a person that "used to work" for such an important part of the system speaks like this about the cryptocurrency market right after he became free to speak....

Next one.
People were very discouraged by the 75% fall of the market.
Take a look at this fellow:

Should I say more?

Let's go further. People make an argument that it is not the same to fall 75% with a small market or big market. Might be true. But then let's just take absolute values into account, let's take a look where we were just one year ago:

At the moment of the lowest dip, Bitcoin was at around 6.800 USD. Altcoins were similarly ahead of past times.


What about the rest of the market?

Take a look at the global chart:

I think it looks fairly similar to that of Bitcoin.

We also have an (expected) announcement on more exchanges accepting fiat money, starting with Binance:
https://dailyhodl.com/2018/04/19/binance-announces-fiat-to-crypto-trading-pairs-in-a-move-that-could-shift-reliance-away-from-bitcoin/
This will obviously shift more attention towards Bitcoin. Most of the altcoins followed Bitcoin since everything was converted to Bitcoin, more or less.

What is the most negative thing about Bitcoin that can hurt it if compared to some other projects? The one it was created to fight against in the first place - centralization.
https://www.ccn.com/the-dangerous-threat-of-centralization-that-exists-in-the-blockchain-ecosystem/

A small % of the society holds most of the coins, just like with fiat money, it is easy for speculators to influence the price etc. It's not that other projects don't have similar problems. Look at the new story about master nodes. While the idea is great, it will only provide those with lots of money with more money (in order to earn you have to already hold an almost impossibly significant amount of coins/tokens).





2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / ICO & Airdrop regulation & KYC identity protection - recommendations on: April 18, 2018, 11:35:21 AM
Hi everybody, I already posted a part of this in some form on another topic, but I actually think this idea is not bad and deserves a topic of its own (self-praise at its worst, khm khm).

As we all know, ICO's are a great way of introducing new projects and getting relevant funds. Another well-known type of distribution is an airdrop. Airdrop can be an additional way of distribution coexisting with ICO (technically ICO is a funding process, and actual distribution is actually an airdrop, however, when talking about "airdrops" we usually mean - free distribution) or a sole way of initial distribution.

The other thing we also probably all know is that it is "normal" for a market gaining a lot of interest to attract scammers as well.
This is a well-known fact for regulated markets as well, so it's not a miracle that it is existing in unregulated markets (in a more threatening way, I might add).

Hence the market needs to be regulated. Here is where most of the newbies make a first of mistakes and initiate FUD reactions to bombastic news one-liners, mixing "regulation" with "prohibition".

Regulation is a good thing - those that don't get that by now should start, from this or some other moment, the sooner the better.
Let's move on.

One regulation that came into force very recently is a so-called Know-your-customer, or more poluarly - KYC.
However, in a current state of things, I consider KYC to be hazardous, really a weapon for various information scoopers.

The intent of KYC is good, however, usually, you need to send your data (with your real name, address, a copy of identity card or passport etc) through for KYC approval in order to apply for an ICO or to apply for an airdrop... generally - you need a KYC approval to get yourself whitelisted.

Not to say that you should check a project before sending your data, but usually that requires time, both in the sense of one you don't have and in the sense of a simple technicality - almost everybody can write a decent looking project, a front page, with nothing but thin air to support it; it is obvious that people need time to see through it and determine it is a scam.

Hence I recommend the following regulation approach:
1. Announce the need for KYC approval at the beginning of the campaign.
2. Request KYC at the end of the campaign.

That way everything will be transparent (1.) and people will have extra time to check the validity of the project before submitting their data (2.).
I actually think this should be added to the regulation case.

Feel free to recommend other regulations within this topic as well, not just for KYC.
3  Economy / Economics / Blockchain and the world of the future (Star Trek society, anybody?) on: March 20, 2018, 03:05:32 PM
I believe we all caught at least a glimpse of some of the episodes of the popular series Star Trek. You haven't? Then what are you waiting for?
Kidding aside, all of us that actually watched it have surely noticed the fact that the so-called Federation, originating from Earth, comes from a society that has solved all the poverty issues, there are no wars, you can basically achieve your goals by just pursuing them etc......

Star Trek always took it for granted and never showed us how they got there. Probably because they would not have a valid explanation. It's called utopia, but is it really something left just to be desired for (or despised, depending on how much one's soul has traveled down the dark path).

We are now living in a new era, 52 years after the first episode of the popular series. In the meantime, new economic theories and many practical trials and mistakes have occurred. We have seen a fall of the socialism, a nice idea with a historic example of a bad implementation, a rise of the capitalism, fortification of democracy, rise of the internet, electronic money, .dot com bubble, big world cash flow of 2008.... The heck, we have even seen a Star Trek series without the "First command" Smiley

And although politicians and most influential economists (usually those with the strongest political connections, not the ones with the greatest ideas) keep repeating the same old stuff, playing that old same "divide and rule" game made in ancient Rome, there is indeed a plethora of new ideas available. Not to mention that besides econometry now we also have system dynamics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics that can be used to test strategies on models as closest as possible to the real thing.

In this topic, we discussed how Blockchain could help decentralization and what would be the real social benefits: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2863445.0, some interesting thoughts were shared there, although I had wished more people would have joined the discussion.

Now I would like to start a new topic where we could share our ideas and strategies on how to use blockchain in correlation with economic theories and make strategies that could lead us towards a better society, however far in the future it might seem.

Some of the more popular theories that are trying to pave a road to the better future:
Basic income https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income;
Liquid democracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delegative_democracy;
Proposals for politicians: limiting the number of terms, working with just a minimum salary with possible bonuses based on the results etc.
There was a theory that, now when I search for it, seems to have been just an interface for a scam with selling product...... but the ideas were interesting - all people in the world would receive an equal amount of money, jobs that nobody would otherwise do (waste treatment, cleaning) would be done by everybody for one year after finishing school etc......
I found this, but I think it's not the same: Equal money capitalism https://emcapitalism.quora.com/;
Land value tax - an example of theory to improve the efficiency of current fiscal tools: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax.

Please feel free to comment, add your examples, and even make strategies if you feel up to it.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / A little terminology advice on "regulation" FUD on: March 13, 2018, 12:39:54 PM
Good day to you all good people,

I noticed that each time when a word "regulation" & stem "crypto" appear in the media together, a FUD starts to spread all over the crypto community.
While that sometimes purely amuses me, as I like behavioral sciences and I like to observe the behavior of the masses, this is actually very harmful to the crypto society and I simply cannot believe that the majority of the people still haven't gotten on top of this.

I can agree that the word "regulation" seems threatening as we all know what was the purpose of invention of Blockchain and Bitcoin - to fight against the current way the money is being created and distributed, and this basically means fighting the banking system, so each time a "regulation" comes up most of the people assume the worst - the Governments and bankers have finally found a way to stop it for (their) good.

However, there is quite a difference between:
a) regulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation;
b) prohibition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibition_(disambiguation).

Please notice how in the title of this news article you have a word "regulate" and then "legalize" deliberately put in the parenthesizes to explain that the regulation means quite the opposite from prohibition in this case (and most of the cases):
https://www.ccn.com/thailand-law-regulate-legalize-cryptocurrency-ico-markets-coming-april/

Finally, it doesn't make any sense to cry over:
a) poor security of crypto trading and
b) regulation
at the same time.

Best regards
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Only stopping FUD will make you rich on: March 09, 2018, 11:42:00 AM
So, I open my usual client to check the prices and I notice that Bitcoin has gone 10% down. Then I open my usual news tracker and notice the Binance hack and by following up conclude that was the reason for the fall.

So - one of the biggest exchanges get hacked so people decide to go to exchanges and sell their Bitcoins and altcoins? So, to security risk, people react by connecting to the compromised servers and they are doing that because they are afraid they could lose money?

Grin

I am sorry, but I am missing the logic there.

It's not trivial to mention that hack has been dealt with within a few hours, as usual.....

People continue to surprise me by reacting to even the most insignificant news out there that "seem" big (Facebook forbidding crypto ads news for example) without thinking it through and doing some research.

This benefits only the very experienced daily traders who know how to time the market and set their tools right (like stop loss or trailing loss for example) in order to exploit the situation by selling at the support and buying at resistance price levels. On the other hand, this is of non-benefit whatsoever to holders (although in a long run, if they have their nerves straightened out - they don't care) and especially of non-benefit to those people selling, who will probably react badly again by buying at a high price and thus risking it all.

Instead of reacting to FUD, try to think it through - this user for example, with her/his topic, can help you a lot in deciding what is important and what is not: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2865338.0.

Chill it down!

6  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / PayPal prosposed a patent to improve transaction times on: March 06, 2018, 08:26:27 AM
I stumbled upon a very interesting news this morning:
https://www.ccn.com/paypal-files-patent-improve-cryptocurrency-transaction-times/

“In many transaction situations, a 10 minute wait time will be too long for payers and/or payees, and those payers and/or payees will instead choose to perform the transaction using traditional payment methods rather than virtual currency. Issues like this have slowed the adoption of virtual currencies despite their advantages.”

"Under PayPal’s proposal, the system would automatically create multiple secondary wallets for its users — wallets whose private keys could be aggregated and transferred to match any desired payment amount. This, the patent argues, would “practically eliminate” confirmation times."

I am not sure how exactly and if this would work. Opinions?
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / eBITCOIN (eBTC) merchant gateway on: February 16, 2018, 07:29:43 AM
Good morning to everybody.

Do you remember the eBTC (Bitcoin on Ethereum network) airdrop? The one that was followed by the invasion of "e" coins which basically overflowed the airdrop network and promoted many pump and dump coins? Original eBTC also had an error in the contracted and it all resulted in main dev leaving and almost everybody putting the eBTC project into the "scam" category.

Negativies aside, first thing I noticed back then is that the community kept being very active and development team kept being persistent in securing all the keys they needed for keeping the development alive. I have constantly been keeping my eye on the project and since then eBTC team successfully re-structured, went through a coin swap and changed a name of the platform to eBITCOIN (while still keeping the eBTC acronym).

Recently they made a very interesting announcement - they developed and launched eBitcoin's Merchant Gateway, plugins for eCommerce Solutions, Fiat-to-eBitcoin option & Paypal payout option. Besides eBitcoin & Bitcoin it also accepts Ethereum, Litecoin, and other top 50 altcoins…

It offers a simple HTML-based "Buy Now" buttons that can be used on any website, as well as the implementation of WordPress and a simple Rest API.

Since the crypto world is basically screaming for developments like this one - those are indeed some "breaking news" coming from this platform that now has the solution that I think none of the top 20 coins have yet.

Read the full story here: http://bit.ly/eBtcGateway
https://merchant.eBitcoin.org
Ecosystem: https://www.ebitcoin.org/our-ecosystem/

What do you think about it?
8  Economy / Trading Discussion / A strategy for "surviving" in times of crisis on: February 07, 2018, 02:51:29 PM
If you are a crypto newbie start from point 1. If you already invested money into cryptos then start from point 2.

1. Invest only the amount you can afford to lose without even sweating about it.
2. Wait for the rise of the value of your investment around 2x and then pull out the amount of your initial investment. This way it's like you never invested and you still have a profit, and a portfolio.
3. When you receive some extra profit put that aside too - open yourself a little "crisis fund".
4. When the crisis happens, look for the prices of travel to the tropical country you always wanted to visit.
5. Activate your "crisis fund".
6. Take your family on a vacation and enjoy the sunshine while everybody else is panicking.
7. Return from the vacation and irregularly check your portfolio to enjoy the rise in value.
8. Repeat steps 3-8.
9  Economy / Economics / Centralization vs. decentralization in society and the role of the blockchain on: February 01, 2018, 03:23:39 PM
Ever since Shawn Fanning and Sean Parker had swept away the world with their service Napster, popularising the peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing protocol, they showed us the true power of decentralization. They caught the music industry totally unprepared (luckily for the movie industry, they had more time to prepare as the most of home internet connections at those days were not broadband and not fast enough for easy downloading of movies) and it suffered huge losses.

The big downside of this was that many artists and those rare non-greedy managers suffered along the big players too. However, if better prepared, they could have utilized this technology for their own benefit. Also, the artists could have found a formula to better realize their talent and hard work. Who could have known though, right?

This phenomenon showed a way for more future decentralized technologies and one of them is blockchain. The idea of blockchain came from a totally different story. Many people were growing dissatisfied with the current financial system, the way money is created, controlled, and also allocated.

We know that creation is a problem - if there is only a bunch of people that can control the supply of money - it can be misused in many ways. Doing business with the likes of credit rating agencies they can create opportunities for no one else them themselves, even in the form national crisis.

The allocation is also a problem. It's not just that fiscal politics are unfortunately mainly used just as tools for political bargain and marketing, but the fact that the allocation doesn't work very well with human nature in general. A good example would be hunger in Africa. It's not just that the world currently has enough food to feed everybody, it is also that those countries with the image of being poor are having it too (it's only being very poorly distributed). Robin Hood cannot always save the day.

Blockchain utilises a ledger technology to offer something similar to a peer-to-peer protocol, in a way that there is no central node needed for the communication of the clients/peers. It is a pure decentralization in the technological sense. In the commercial sense - yeah, whales are the problem.

I found this great text about how blockchain can benefit  various niches of society through decentralization and not just through a new way of distributing money https://futurism.com/sponsored-how-centralization-paralyzing-society/.

The main role in this transformation should be played by the system of smart contracts. This self-regulatory system offers a way to avoid human error in judgment, and by that, I primarily mean bribery and corruption. It also offers a way to avoid the need for the middleman.

Does anybody remember a legendary movie Metropolis, made by Fritz Lang, which tried to explain to us why the middleman is important? In that sense - a middleman from this movie was an economist, a manager functioning as a bridge between the working class and the government, and we could have considered them being really needed. But the manager can get greedy, and anyone else in that chain can get greedy too. Hence the elimination of the middleman and strict but honest rules for the end parties can make up a much better system.  An artist could get a greater share for his work, a person buying his first real estate could get a job done without a dozen of agents functioning as intermediaries, with the constant fear of what if some of them are corrupted etc. etc.

Talking about politics, it is also interesting to note how they like to sell centralization as decentralization. Remember communism? The idea was not bad, but the problem was that all the decisions were made centrally and everything, starting from money, was collected centrally. Hence the idea was ruined by the mechanism in the process - it beat its purpose.

Do you know how the voting system in your country works like? I can tell you how it works in mine. You have (too many) autonomous districts. They call it a decentralization. Imagine yourself founding a new political party. In order for someone to be able to vote for you, you would have to register a bunch of people and have them active in each of this autonomous districts, otherwise, people from districts you left out wouldn't be able to vote for you. You literally have to have a small army. Those are the rules. There are only two political parties in the country who have enough money and support to pull this off. They call it a decentralization. But it is actually a decentralization used as an instrument for harder centralization.

This is making changes nearly impossible, or at least very slow. Thus centralization is indeed paralyzing the society.

This topic is open for discussions.

10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Dividing the airdrop and ICO announcement into forum sections - discussion on: January 25, 2018, 01:37:09 PM
What do you think, now that also NEP5 ICO's and announcements are coming, more ERC20 are to be expected, Waves coins as well, probably some other platforms too....
would it make sense to divide the section "announcements" into ICO section, airdrops section, bounties, with subdivision to NEP, ERC, separate projects, other?

I know this forum is called "Bitcoin"talk, but maybe the time has come to get some order into the "altcoins" section mess?
Maybe Ethereum has earned it's own subforum by now.....

I apologize to the Bitcointalk moderators if it is not up to me to pose this kind of a question.
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Ripple solutions for fast and low cost payments vs. other tokens/coins on: January 25, 2018, 01:04:21 PM
Ripple is offering solutions for fast and low cost payments - xCurrent, xRapid, xVia. Latest news are that xRapid is being tested by two banks. Probably their test report, if positive, should increase support for this platform.

What is the current situation with other platforms and their similar solutions? Any ERC20 on Ethereum platform, Iota, NEP5 on NEO, others?
I haven't been able to fast track the current situation.

Since this is very important for large scale adoption of cryptocurrencies, this thread is also open for discussions.
12  Local / Hrvatski (Croatian) / Huobi Pro on: January 18, 2018, 09:08:32 AM
Je li netko probao Huobi Pro exchange? Je li to čemu?
Inače, daju neki Data token kao nagradu za registraciju pa sam se ubacio gore. Stranica se čini OK.
Evo i linka: https://www.huobi.pro/
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Ripple vs. Stellar on: January 05, 2018, 11:48:56 AM
I haven't found any topics discussing the corellation between Ripple and Stellar so I decided to open one.

Both of these coins are highly on the rise. Ripple is now sitting and number 2 right below Bitcoin. Stellar on the other hand is number 9.

They have similar technology and both seem to be fighting strongly for the approval of the financial sector although there are some fundamental differences in that vein.

From my experience, when there are two strong player in the new field fighting for the same thing - and that is to become an industry standard, only one will prevail (Netscape vs Internet Explorer, Intel vs. IBM, Blu-ray vs HD DVD....). Sometimes the other will remain with much smaller share of market, and sometimes it will go bankrupt, seize to exist, or be taken over by somebody else. In other instances some other players would join and they would share the market in equal way. Since this is the fight over what will be used as the future of all digital payments, and now we are talking about what will be supported/adopted by banks, I seriously doubt the latter will happen, at least in mid-term.

What are your opinions?
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / ERC20 wallet - custom token limit on: December 09, 2017, 08:17:29 AM
Does anyone know if there is a limit on number of custom tokens that you can create in an ERC20 paper wallet?
15  Local / Off-topic (Hrvatski) / Telegram - pridruživanje protokola izvršnom programu on: November 08, 2017, 07:44:42 AM
Da li postoji jednostavan način za pridružiti Telegram protokol nekom izvršnom programu (tipa add-on, Telegram web ili vanjska aplikacija) kako bi se Telegram link automatski otvarao klikom na poveznicu unutar, recimo linka na ovom forumu?

Do sada sam instalirao add-on i imam pristup putem Telegram web-a, ali niti jedno niti drugo ne mogu natjerati da automatski otvaraju poveznice kao na Android telefonu već moram ili tražiti adresu (što najčešće završi neuspješno) ili se prebaciti na telefon.
16  Local / Altcoins (Hrvatski) / Metamask on: November 02, 2017, 01:52:00 PM
Pozdrav, da li je netko od vas koristio Metamask.
Meni se čini da radi jako elegantno sa svim sajtovima na koje se konektira.
Ono što nisam uspio shvatiti, međutim, jest gdje on sprema privatne ključeve? Naime, ako se unese account/privatni ključ u njega, on to uredno zapamti i na njihovoj stranici piše da sprema "u browser". Međutim, nigdje ih nisam pronašao, a nisam pronašao niti opciju "forget key". Ukoliko je nešto "u browseru", nije li to onda pretvorilo "cold" u "hot" wallet koji je prilično nesigurniji?

Pozz
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