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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Here comes the Satoshi drama on: March 02, 2017, 11:17:47 AM
Craig Wright patents, Canadian fugitives, Gambling, bitcoin.

SYDNEY/SINGAPORE - The man who last year made global headlines by claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of bitcoin, is working with a fugitive online gambling entrepreneur to file scores of patents relating to the digital currency and its underlying technology, blockchain.

Craig Wright, the Australian computer scientist who made the Satoshi claim, has the backing of Calvin Ayre, a wealthy Canadian entrepreneur, according to people close to Wright and documents reviewed by Reuters. Ayre has been indicted in the United States on charges of running online gambling operations that are illegal in many U.S. states – an accusation he rejects.

Wright’s expertise combined with Ayre’s support make a potentially formidable force in shaping the future of bitcoin and blockchain, the ledger technology that underlies digital currencies. Wright and his associates have lodged more than 70 patent applications in Britain and have plans to file many more, according to documents and emails reviewed by Reuters and sources with knowledge of Wright’s business. The patents range from the storage of medical documents to WiFi security, and reflect Wright's deep knowledge of how bitcoin and blockchain work.

Their total compares with 63 blockchain-related patents filed globally last year and 27 so far this year by multinationals from credit card companies to chipmakers, according to Thomson Innovation.

Neither Wright nor Ayre would comment for this story on their business relationship, details of which are revealed here for the first time, or their goals. But their interest in bitcoin and blockchain highlights two key trends.

First, an increasing number of entrepreneurs believe blockchain, which can circumvent the need for big financial intermediaries, will challenge traditional payment systems. Various banks are investing large sums to explore how blockchain could revolutionise payment systems and cut costs. Bitcoin involves sending payments directly, securely and potentially anonymously between two people's digital wallets, whereas all mainstream transactions, including those using intermediaries like Paypal and credit card lenders, run through banks and usually require named accounts and verification.

Second, blockchain has the potential to defy authorities trying to enforce borders and national regulations – and it already does so in areas such as online gambling. In internet chatrooms some online gamblers say that using bitcoin enables them to disguise their identity and transactions.

The confidentiality conveyed by the currency is one source of its popularity. Bitcoin hit a record high this week, partly because of speculation that the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund is set to receive U.S. regulatory approval. After a sharp rise this year, the cryptocurrency reached more than $1,200 per bitcoin.

Ayre said last year that he saw a “growing convergence” of bitcoin and online gambling, according to the website Documents reviewed by Reuters show Wright’s links to online gambling go back decades and that bitcoin grew out of code originally developed with gambling in mind. Early bitcoin code, seen by Reuters and analysed by a computer coding consultant with no ties to Wright or any blockchain-related project, contains unimplemented functions related to poker.

Wright’s vision for bitcoin, though, goes much further than gambling, according to his research papers and interview transcripts. It remains unclear whether he is Satoshi Nakamoto or not, and even whether Satoshi is one person or a group of people. But some of the documents, including two folders of computer code for early versions of bitcoin, support Wright’s claims that he was closely involved in the development of the cryptocurrency before it became public in 2009.

Whatever Wright's original role, he has suggested bitcoin could have widespread applications. In a paper from November 2015, also reviewed by Reuters, he wrote: “The bitcoin blockchain can be scaled up to replace all existing payment system networks to become the world's single global economic infrastructure.”

The paper is unpublished, but it gives an insight into the global scope of his plans for the technology. While it's far from clear the two will be successful in their patent applications, bitcoin and patent experts say Wright's project represents the single largest filing of bitcoin-related intellectual property they've seen. "It's certainly bullish," said Justin Hill, a patents expert with law firm Olswang. "With the ambition comes the risk."
2  Economy / Economics / Macro Thread on: January 26, 2017, 03:28:31 PM
Plenty of big macro stuff in the air that will impact Bitcoin, from Trump presidency to Euro wobbles to all things China. Thought this could be a thread to encompass that.

Something that comes to mind is the Trump administration beginning to talk the dollar down. That could, and should, lead to a reaction from China specifically. As part of what is looking increasingly like a trade war scenario, the Chinese may opt to violently devalue the Yuan. They would need to keep a lower Yuan to remain competitive with other export driven Asian countries.

Anyone think this is likely?

The impact on bitcoin should be to increase the price significantly. Would also increase capital flow out of China and perhaps lead to more capital controls and subsequent PBOC fud.
3  Economy / Speculation / The plunge isn't about bitcoin on: January 06, 2017, 04:01:50 AM
It's about the Yuan.

The strengthening of the CNH / CNY (some of the biggest moves for years) seems to have been a catalyst that coincided with the run up to ATH's.

Interest for overnight Yuan borrowing has hit over 105%.

Seems the PBOC was attacking the Yuan shorters and this flows into bitcoin (which seems to rise each time the Yuan devalues).

Dangerous game and much bigger than bitcoin.
4  Economy / Economics / Safe haven on: December 25, 2016, 11:16:48 PM
Been a definite change in the msm narrative as this last spike occurred, many of these outlets are now labelling bitcoin as the new global safe haven. I don't trust a thing they say, however their headlines do start to inform a public perspective.

The evolution from worthless > ponzi > drug dealer toy > chinese manipulation > global safe haven, is interesting.

Lets say we see significant sovereign deterioration and accelerating inflation. Putting the blocksize debate aside, is it possible bitcoin finds critical mass as a haven before becoming an all inclusive currency? I say this because if SHTF and bitcoins market cap grows exponentially it would then be under pressure to provide transaction capability for those looking to exit fiat.

edit: this may be a better phrasing of the question (from another thread)

We all want more merchant adoption but what leads to more of it and more consumer interest? Seems to be in places where SHTF, right? As has been mentioned frequently, Average Joe in the west doesn't have too many incentives to use bitcoin. His cash / card work perfectly well and the fees / minor dramas with paypal or ebay etc are mostly just inconveniences. He also only really hears about bitcoin during pumps, dumps or crimes / hacks.

Yet we look around the world and see where interest in bitcoin is surging: countries with hyperinflation, bans on cash or crippling remittance fees. This suggests that bitcoin will catch on when it offers protection from something. From this I've been thinking that bitcoin will become a safe haven before merchant / consumer adoption picks up. I've always considered bitcoin a crisis asset & hodling was always my plan but I assumed we needed Amazon or someone to accept it to reach critical mass. Maybe not?
5  Economy / Economics / "Remember: Nothing has changed because it wasn't ever meant to be changed" on: February 09, 2016, 08:34:25 AM
Ran across an article today from CIPRAS PRESS editor John Cunningham entitled "The Global Credit Bomb = Central Banking Terrorism"

It is from linkedin so I won't link to it, but search author / title and get it on there that way.

The title of this thread is a statement used throughout the piece. Written in January it makes a series of points and near term predictions that have been pretty good.

Before that, the premise is that Global Debt is a problem. Despite the DotCom and GFC, credit growth has never stopped accelerating because that is the only way to maintain this financial system. Outstanding global credit growth (in USD, Yen and Euro but NOT INCLUDING China) went from around $27 trillion (DotCom bust) to $77 trillion (GFC) to around $102 trillion now.

Nothing has changed.

Sovereign Debt is taxpayer debt, and a whole lot of it was transferred from the private sector (banks) to the public sector (governments) via bailouts in 2008.

Now onto the predictions of January 13:


- Debt problem will surface in equities first. S & P to drop from 1940 to 1820, then bounce back to 1940. Then in Feb, collapse below 1820
- Tech bubble to implode in 2016
- 2s10s US Treasuries to go to yielding 107bps, the 07/08 lows


- Negative rates to be announced
- Yen to go from 122 to 115
- At 115 it shows a correlation between Yen and S&P


- Deutsche Bank will hit January 2009 lows
- Watch Deutsche Bank CDS: at 440-450 level it signals a banking crisis


- Govt will set a rate and get a rate
- Media will say all is OK
- Yuan will devalue to 6.8 by end of 2016


- Will stabilise at $30
- Watch Chesapeake and other frackers; bankruptcies ahead.

6  Economy / Speculation / Same topic different year on: February 10, 2015, 03:33:43 AM
Two comments from a 2011 thread on the deflating of the bitcoin $32 bubble that sum up the bear v bull argument.

Bear: "To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all. Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon."

Bull: "If you can only think on short time scales, you are going to eventually get screwed in the long term. At least with bitcoin, the fluctuations are due solely to participants in the market, rather than the institutions who actually control the monetary systems across the world. Over time, stability will come. Stop asking from bitcoin what it can't give you right now. The client is still in 0.4 beta. If you want true stability, invest your money in actual bitcoin businesses rather than on casino games like bitcoinica."

Not much has changed. But while past performance is no guarantee of future success, it'd be remiss not to entertain the thought of bitcoin eventually going on another run. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the future ecosystem. It may be an oft mentioned meme but when the fruits of this injection come to bear we should be seeing another bull run.
7  Economy / Economics / The USD Bull Market on: January 27, 2015, 10:11:12 AM
The USD has been on a bull run after the ending of QE. Money has flowed out of emerging markets and into the US, having a deflationary effect. With all the Grexit dramas happening in Europe, it is highly likely that the flow will continue (whether Greece leaves or not) as $ will flow to 'safety'.

I've always thought the USD bull has contributed to outflow from bitcoin (at least in a small part) and I worry it will continue.

But now, with looming legitimization (regulation), US exchanges and the possibility that sovereign defaults are at least on the medium term radar, what are the odds that btc will be seen as a 'safe', alternate asset class and benefit from the resulting inflow?

8  Economy / Speculation / Are we reaching a tipping point? on: September 11, 2014, 02:16:42 PM
Just had a quick browse of the Bank of England report.

Top of the report states of Bitcoin:

"the distributed ledger underlying their payment systems is a significant innovation."

The trickle is turning into a flow. PayPay, IBM etc.

It is almost impossible to deny that the future of payments lies in using a decentralised ledger ala the bitcoin protocol.

Even Apple's introduction of NFC is positive as it normalises the use of mobile devices as payment systems.

Even though the price does not reflect it, bitcoin has made massive progress in 2014.

9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Reggie Middleton on Ebay, bitcoin and cannibalising their own cash flow on: August 26, 2014, 07:22:50 PM
Here's Reggie giving a short rundown on what Ebay is doing and why they should stop tiptoeing around bitcoin.

Great analysis again.
10  Economy / Speculation / Citi report on bitcoin on: August 26, 2014, 07:10:21 PM
Just read the coindesk article re: citi report on bitcoin saying the effect of mining & increased retail adoption is depressing the price.

My possibly naive takeaway from this is that on the retail adoption side this is a necessary evil. upon acceptance a company may initially sell straight away into the market be ause they are basically testing the waters, but as their btc sales stabilise they will (lseeing the successful example of overstock) begin to hold a percentage in btc. this will equal less supply and will encourage b2b usage in the medium term even though it has a price dampening impact initially.

its part of the reason for the stagnating price but will also be part of the reason that it eventually takes off again.

id guess its a 12 month lag between accepting, holding and then paying suppliers in btc.
11  Economy / Speculation / what will be the catalyst? on: August 16, 2014, 06:34:47 AM
we're trending down. good news has lately been greeted with a price drop. i would have thought the ebay / paypal / braintree acceptance would have been a good kickstart but it has been lost in the bear despair.

So what will be the catalyst for a rise?

Circle going 'public'?
Regs being less restrictive and formalised?
Ebay taking bitcoin on themselves?

Some kind of news will come that will turn the tide, lets play out the scenarios and flesh it out.
12  Economy / Speculation / Rate of retail adoption causing falls? on: August 14, 2014, 03:06:28 AM
Tweeted by Max Keiser: @maxkeiser: Rate of retail adoption for Bitcoin is faster than banking system is collapsing, so price of BTC is falling until next major bank failure.

Im aware of the retailers converting to fiat theory but how does MK's reasoning tie in?
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Pitbull on: July 20, 2014, 05:27:40 PM
Saw this in BusinessWeek so thought id post it.

Apologies if its been up before. It's about Pitbull the rapper and his businesses. This bit is about him discussing if there is an opportunity in bitcoin. It is indicative that bitcoin is filtering down but also highlights the hurdles btc faces in overcoming the entrenched societal beliefs in regards to gold, banking.

After discussing a few of Pitbull’s investments—a restaurant chain called Miami Subs Grill that’s undergoing storefront renovations and a water filtration system called EcoloBlue that Pitbull believes will be a “game changer”—the rapper moves down to “Meetings” and says, “Let’s do Bitcoin.”

STORY: Summertime, When the Hitmaking Is Easy
Zigel slides over a stack of articles about Bitcoin and mentions a possible sitdown with Merlin Kauffman, who runs a $7.5 million Bitcoin investment fund focused on the hardware that runs the currency. Pitbull flips through the pages quickly, not displaying much interest. In public, Pitbull is rarely seen without an enormous pair of aviator-style sunglasses, but he’s left them off for this meeting. His exposed eyes are ocean-colored, surrounded by little-girl lashes. Freckles dot his nose. There’s a Twitter (TWTR) joke that compares a picture of Pitbull to Lord Voldemort, and while uncharitable, there’s something to it, with that crowded, leonine smile and menacing cannonball-like head.
“I still want to know, what exactly is Bitcoin?” Pitbull says. “How real is it? Is it going to be adopted and be disruptive?”
“The people who are going to adopt it are young,” Zigel replies. “If it’s something they decide they want to do, it’s going to be a force to be reckoned with.”
“What makes this real money?”
Zigel, looking unsure, glances quickly at the articles Pitbull has shoved back toward him. “It’s very speculative right now,” he says. “There’s nothing that’s holding it together.”
Pitbull is dubious. “No gold, no nothing?”
“No banks behind it, no.”
“Are they having problems with the streets?”
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Thanking Banking on: July 12, 2014, 08:41:01 AM
A big thank you to the big banks, the Too Big To Fail, the Too Big To Jail, the corrupt, the cronyism, the political shielding, the ineffective regulation, TARP, QE, negative IR"S, the naked shorting, the insider trading, the robosigning, the grifters, the con men, each and every last one of you.


Because you were the catalyst for bitcoin.

Bitcoin was born because of you and the environment you created allowed it to flourish. Your excesses and failures allowed the technology to get a footing. The population was ripe for the picking without really knowing it.


15  Economy / Economics / Browns Bottom - US Version on: June 29, 2014, 12:42:14 AM
The US Marshalls have just provided history with their Brown's Bottom moment, with the sale of 30k bitcoin.

We'll look back at this in a few years and laugh - how stupid were they to sell those bitcoin at such a low price.

16  Economy / Economics / ECB introduces Negative deposit rates for commercial banks - good for bitcoin? on: June 05, 2014, 12:55:40 PM
Just announced a minus 0.10 deposit rate for commercial banks as a 'incentive' for them to invest.

Hard to do QE with such variance between member countries.
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / What will happen when Lawsky announces his regulation of bitcoin? on: June 04, 2014, 02:20:57 AM
It is supposed to be handed down by end of Q2.

Whether you agree or disagree with the idea of regulation, his announcement will have a major impact on bitcoin in the US.

Let's hear predictions for the days and weeks following the announcement.

I'll say it is going to see the establishment of regulated & licensed exchanges in the US, more acceptances by retailers and the official intro of Wall St.

It will not please everyone though, and anonymising agents like Dark Market, tumblers etc etc will see a spike in interest.

Pretty generalised view Smiley)
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Peter Schiff comes round to bitcoin - EuroPac now use bitpay / btc for PM's on: May 21, 2014, 03:16:42 PM
Serial bitcoin sprayer Peter Schiff has, commendably, done a 180 and now accepts bitcoin as payment for PM's.

This is a fine example of someone formerly so staunchly opposed to bitcoin / blockchain tech accepting crypto's merits

Interesting to note in the blog post how CC fees and slowness of transfer were part of the reasoning..
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Which tech company will be next to incorporate btc? on: May 01, 2014, 09:27:14 AM
Ok, so in light of Barry Silbert's tweet

"What bitcoin skeptics fail to appreciate is that senior decision makers at many major consumer tech companies are all trying incorporate BTC"

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to which company will be first?
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Specific Address Wallet? on: March 27, 2014, 12:14:27 AM
Was hoping to get an answer from the technically minded on here.

Is it possible to create a wallet, or address, that can only send btc to specific, nominated addresses?

I thought this may be possible by using a smart contract and would like to hear if it is possible.
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