Lately the forum is full of speculators using the word 'pump' as a verb in the incorrect way. The word is often used with Bitcoin itself as the subject of the sentence rather than the predicate.

Example: "Bitcoin will pump past $10,000" (wrong)

In this sentence, Bitcoin is apparently pumping itself, which is impossible. This is not the correct usage of the verb. Nowhere in the dictionary will you find the word used this way.

In financial markets, the verb pump is often used in the context of a 'pump and dump'. In this case, pumping is a fraudulent act performed by a malevolent entity. Is this what you guys mean? Even if so, the way you are using the word is still wrong. You have to specify that subject I.E. WHO is doing the pumping.

Example: "Bulls will pump Bitcoin past $10,000" (correct)

Things don't pump themselves. Something ELSE has to do the pumping.

On that other hand, as I suspect, you may be using the word pump as a synonym for the word 'rise'. These words are not really synonyms. So if your intent is to say that bitcoin will rise, you should simply use the word rise.

Example: "Bitcoin will rise past $10,000" (correct)

In spirit of the other 'bitcoin will never reach' threads...

This could be interpreted one of two ways...

Sorry for giving false hope to the bulls. This thread is for the bears.

After crossing under $5000 bears will make a thread that it'll never go back over $5,000.

The last part isn't my prediction, I'm just reserving the thread.

So you've accumulated a massive bitcoin investing fortune, but you are going to die soon and haven't been able to enjoy it. You have no children. How can you pass on your bitcoins to future self? First you need to figure out how to target a message and have it noticed by the future self. Then you need to figure out how to securely transmit the key in a way that nobody else but your future self will be able to use. Or you need to entice your future self to download a bitcoin wallet - then somehow have the current wallet detect that the new you has created a bitcoin wallet and send the bitcoins there. Come on bitcoin. Want to talk about programmable money and the money of the future? Let's see you do this and then I'll be impressed. It would be funny if I could put this in a JIRA ticket as a bug.

[Jump to exhibit D for the punchline]

I know everything is off by 1 year, but bear with me here...

Jump to exhibit D for the punchline

Exhibit A

Guys I have some bad news for short term speculators. I just got back from the future in my time machine and I managed to take a screenshot of 'wisdom.

Exhibit B

Here is a bullish and a bearish possibility moving forward, though I am no longer placing bets on the downside as it is too risky at this point, even if that case were to materialize.

Exhibit C

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

Exhibit D

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

In summary, first I predicted that we would go further down in a EW wave into a multi year sideways trend in the 200-300 area before going back up to a new ATH, which nobody expected and thought I was super bearish for. Then I predicted we were in an even larger EW wave and the next bubble, bubble 3, would be wave 5 and go to 20,000 before starting ABC. Wave 5 is shown as weaker than Wave 1 or 3, as it is supposed to be, and matches with what we just saw where we had a really slow controlled rally instead of the spikes we are used to.
 I also gave multiple reasons for a drop which we weren't really having back then but are having now.

sry for the bear thread



hodl

(read the whole story before commenting)

So you've been looking at the chart for a while and you're pretty sure a drop is in the cards. However, you're pretty confident that the drop wont be that bad because bitcoin is bigger, has grown, is much more mature, is the future, and wall street is eyeing it, etc. So, come the day the drop begins: Here's how it will go down.

You're going to be looking for a slow drop with lots of bounces at key levels with high volume. It's not going to happen the way you expected. There is going to be less volume than you expected, or the seller is going to be more aggressive than you expected, or the exchanges will be failing. There's going to be lots of fresh FUD too. It's going to go down a lot harder or longer than you expected. Perhaps it even passes the obvious 8K level and goes down to 5.5K or below. Maybe it wont. Either way, you are going to PANIC.

You are going to look at the chart, and think: 'Oh my god, look at all that black space below the chart that isn't filled in, we've broken this curve, is THAT where we're going?? When is this going to stop? What if it doesn't? What is guaranteeing that someone is really going to stop it? What if 10,000,000 coins are left to be dumped?' Everything you think you knew about bitcoin will fall apart. Your confidence will be shot. At this point you're frantically counting the money you have left and just want to get out. You offer a god a sacrifice if he allows just one little bounce for you to get out or make your last trade and keeps the exchanges open for your withdrawal.

You start making some shitty trades. Maybe you make one good trade with a 10% gain. That's it. Then you buy and then immediately sell for a 2% gain, no gain, or even a loss.  Finally you sell somewhere within 10% of the bottom, and then immediately it bounces. The bounce is huge.

It bounces 20-50% in the first 15 minutes. It bounces so hard and fast you never have a chance to get in. You pray to the aforementioned god for any kind of aftershock for you to get back in. The god is sitting there confused now. The aftershock either doesn't happen or you miss it. You never get in. You sit there full fiat as it goes up and up and up. You're thinking 'No idiots! What are you doing? How can you buy at such a ridiculous price? Dont you know bitcoin is dead now? Didnt you just see it die???'. Soon it's back up all the way within the vicinity of ATH, and you're still full fiat. Your last hope is resistance from ATH levels.

If you want, you can rebuy 1/3 of the coins you sold, but this is not acceptable. So you become a hardcore permabear and join a bear club with Proudhon and roach. Every day you remind the forum of how bitcoin is a ponzi scam and is going to die at any minute.

With crypto you have these huge 100% daily swings on massive volume on things with a market caps of $1bn - 300bn. The volume is so high you can move in and out of multimillion dollar positions instantly without slippage. You can make hundreds of thousands of dollars per minute daytrading because can take a multimillion dollar position one minute at 1.5 and sell it the next minute at 2.0 and all the liquidity is there to do this. Will there ever be anything else like this? I cant think of any other trading opportunities with the volume to support anything this volatile. I know there is forex but you have to take massive leverage in order to make meaningful trades which means your risk is also 50 times higher than trading crypto - that is not the same thing. I want to move off of crypto exchanges because being there is so risky but I dont know what else I'll trade.

Based on the slow ramp up of the beginning of the rally with the strong support at $5500 and the subsequent meteoric rise, I chose a bottom of $5500. Based on previous rallies and crashes, the always goes within 50% of the past ATH - that would put the target at $1800 - which happens to the be the FIRST place there was a strong support during the rally. However, that seems extremely low and unobtainable at this point. Now there are bulls who claim this thing cant go below $12K or whatever again - that sounds equally ridiculous. What is your target?

My $5500 bottom might not be reached for several weeks or months. If I was to put a short term bottom for the current movement going on right now it might be more like $8000 but who knows.


As you can see from this chart, even my target of $5500 seems way too high. And I dont even have 2011 on here.

I've always had insomnia and been a late riser but Bitcoin took it to the next level. Now if I don't have work or have to get up for anything, my sleep always drifts to something like 8AM-4PM. If I do have to get up at ,say, 10AM, then I'll probably still only get to sleep by 5AM. How is yours?

There's beed a lot of FUD and fun trading opportunities whenever something regarding the underlying bitcoin protocol occurs. We can always count on a nice bounce to trade or rescue us whenever this happens - because, well, nothing was really wrong. But what if it happened for real: Bitcoin stopped working compeltely and wasn't coming back up, or someone cracked EC and all the keys were compromised, etc. What would the trading chart look like? How fast would it go down? Would be there be any bounces? Where would the final bottom be? Draw a chart. Even if you made a good trade would the exchanges even let you withdraw fiat? Would they even be operating?

The top was 3500. Todays bottom was 1155. Thats a drop of 67%. Regular btc only dropped 45%. Now gbtc is back to 1990. You could have done pretty well trading. I wonder if you can leverage those too.

Today if you played the trade exactly right you could have increased your coins a whopping 20%. As of now fiat is up 15% for the day. But, meanwhile, dogecoin rallied 100% the other day and ripple is up 50% today and 400% this month. You could have made much more coin trading these instead of fiat. Nevertheless, I dont see anyone screaming about dogecoin nor about ripple. Just fiat and its pathetic 15% movement. What is the obsession with fiat?

I just saw the price ticker go from 16731 to 16721. What happened? Who is selling? I can smell something. What is the big news behind this movement? Did the SEC halt bitcoin? Please link me. There has to be a fundamental for this crash. Is this it? Do I sell now? Is bitcoin dying? PRICES ARENT SUPPOSED TO MOVE.

Crypto is now worth $600 billion. However, the majority of fiat transfer is still handled by a handful of small companies including Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp. Do you think whenever the bubble pops and everyone is withdrawing, the liquidity will hold? Or will there be huge delays, or will we have another mtgox even? I want so badly to wait and trade the bottom of a crash but I'm not sure if I trust the exchanges and the time to withdrawal may be now while everything is uppity.

Another question: Is tether going to collapse?

I read some article over a year ago when the price was still below $1,000 stating that Bitcoin was using more electricity than a major city and that it was becoming an energy crisis. Now with prices 2,000% higher than when this article was written, there is incentive for 20 times more miners. Does this mean Bitcoin is using as much energy as 20 major cities and that it is becoming a serious energy drain? How will this be sustained? What about if we rally even more? There will probably need to be a shift away from POW I guess.

Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

I am in the USA. I have some questions. I've been hesitant to sell any more bitcoins because it might push me into a higher tax brackets. However, with my altcoin trading, it may be irrelevant, depending on the answers to these questions:

1. If I trade an altcoin for bitcoin and make a profit in bitcoins, but never touch the US dollar (Sell) by the end of the tax year, are the profits taxed or not?
2. If I am taxed on the altcoin profits, and the the bitcoins that I traded with were a long term hold, are the altcoin profits taxed as a short term hold or a long term hold?
3. If I am taxed on the altcoin profits, what price basis is the tax - is it the price of bitcoin at the time that I closed the trades?

4. If bitcoin forks into bitcoin cash, etc, but I dont sell, am I taxed?
5. If I am taxed on the fork, and the the bitcoins that I had held were a long term hold, is the fork taxed as a short term hold or a long term hold?
6. If I am taxed on the fork, what price basis is the tax - is it the price of bitcoin at the time of the fork?

Thanks

My account 'TERA' has been stolen. For proof I can email you from the original email account that the account was registered to. Thanks.