Don't! As an accumulator, I am always bearish on price. Even as I ride on the back of a dirty bull.

Here is some food for thought;
Let us assume for a second that luc knows what he's talking about with this "Historical wave-III". I will also use the count where $1200 was the wave-I top of this cycle.
Simple math and some chart measurements sheds some light on what I am getting at here. Basically, wave 3's are generally much longer (in time... Price too, but that's not my point here) than wave 1's. Below, a chart showing some measurements and some notes.



Markets repeat, for the most part, fractals on different scales. The chart below shows the smaller degree waves in the chart above just to show that it holds fairly consistently.
 


So all I am saying is that prices higher than many here can imagine, can be achievable over the next 2-3 years. People scoff at speculations of 5 digit and especially 6 digit prices, but a log scale chart shows how it is reasonable and clearly possible as adoption moves Bitcoin from niche to mainstream. Wave-III is the place where that happens, and wave-III may have just really got started.

Here are some other arguments that tend to agree with luc's channel.

A monthly chart shows where we'd be if we had a monthly candle similar to the November 2013 candle. 480% rise in a month. Well, a 480% rise here puts us at $20k. In just a single month. Definitely doable.



1900 days at the current trajectory puts us around 100k. That assumes no fomo takes us into acceleration channels at near-vertical angles... for 1200 more days.



One last item to note. In the third chart, the monthly one, notice that the volume hasn't even begun to pick up yet compared to the end of 2013. There is a long way to go, and this ain't fomo yet.

We are live!

Introducing http://www.bit-sim.trade/.

To play:
start in whatever currency you'd like to start in. (Hint: if you think it's going down before up, start in USD!) Your first trade will be the buy after that. This is an all in/all out game, there is no tapering in/out. Account value is king, and PL for tiebreakers.  Try to work your way to the top!



Bug report:
A bug when repeatedly hitting the trade button will cause you to end up with 0 BTC, 0 USD and a -100% PL.      ETA for a fix, 11-9-2016 FIXED!

Since this sub-forum is lacking substance these last few weeks in the new threads dept., I decided to start this thread as a log of Elliott wave counts, as they progress, and reject as they are invalidated. I will only post charts of counts, including possible outcomes and targets should the count mentioned come to fruition. Targets will be found using only Fibonacci relationships to price action.

Note:This is NOT a prediction thread. I do not give advice on trading.


In most cases, for fairness sake, I will post at least one Bullish count and one Bearish count using the same period of time. These counts will be equally plausible, and equally valid, but not necessarily equally likely.  I will try to post updates Daily at a minimum, and more frequently during active times. Sometimes, I will put multiple counts on the same chart. In these instances, I will color code the counts so that it's easy to identify what is what. I will at times, use an indicator or two on my charts (to be announced later) which I will go into detail on how they can be used to help determine where we are in a count.

This thread can be used as a sort of learning tool for those who would like to learn Elliott Wave Theory. Ask me questions or post your own counts if you'd like, but please keep off-topic chat out as I will remove useless material as I see fit.

Elliott Wave Theory (I will use "EW" from here on out) should not be used as a trading system by itself for reasons I will explain throughout this thread. Always, and I mean ALWAYS use other indicators/methods together with EW to get a solid read of the market. FYI, I have about 100 charts for Bitcoin. Everything from 5 minute to weekly. Then I have Bearish and Bullish counts. I have probably 40 charts with different various indicators, some custom and some with default settings. So don't be afraid to have charts

Some basic psychology behind the waves can be found here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=672187.msg8767634#msg8767634 EW is based on this psychology and the effects it has on you, the trader. Bitcoin is no different than any other financial market in the world in that the gain and loss of wealth whether it be Fiat or BTC affects the emotions of traders new and seasoned alike. EW is a glimps into the collective market psychology.

Divergences talked about in this thread such as Bullish divergence and Bearish divergence, and how to effectively use them can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=672187.msg8960947#msg8960947

To start off, I will stir the pot a little with this Bearish one


Or this one

This one remains valid until 683.26 is PASSED.

...and for those that don't know what smoothie is talking about with that inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S)  


This is the legend for the degree labelings I use. They are top to bottom, larger to smaller. However, I tend to only use 3-4 degrees in any given chart and those are usually Upper case Roman numerals, digits, and lower case Roman numerals. Sometimes I have a need to use more and I will add parenthesis.
Upper case is greater than digits. Digits are greater than lower case. Brackets are greater than parenthesis. Parenthesis are grater than non-enclosed labels. The character takes precedence over enclosure type.

Technical Analysis (TA) is NOT about prediction. TA is about probabilities. It is about the Analysis of price data.
The use of price data to determine the next probable move is not a new development. It has been used for many, many years. Said price data is used to calculate the indicators used by many technical analysts. These indicators don't predict the future, they indicate changing trends well before there is enough data to draw what most of you like to call arbitrary lines. They indicate momentum, force and strength in a trend. As these indicators change, they tell the next probable outcome. You know what? They can even give two (or more) possible outcomes.

Arepo was correct when he said the supply/demand can overtake TA. It means that a market can remain in overbought conditions and still rise further as well as it can remain in oversold conditions and continue to drop. This goes back to the old saying, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent". It doesn't mean it's not a good time to take profits. At that point, the risk to reward goes out the window.

TA is NOT a perfect science, it is subjective, and the quality of the analysis is based on how well the analyst understands the data. Elliott Wave Theory is a perfect example of this. If I gave the same chart to 10 people who could count waves, likely they would come up with 10 different counts that are all valid at the time, however, many times it's one move that validates/invalidates a count. So until that move happens, your count can be correct. Same goes for triangles. There are a very specific set of rules for triangles. As long as those rules are adhered to, the lines can be redrawn indefinitely until it is invalidated.

Those who say Bitcoin is not like a Stock, Bond, Financial market, Tulips... etc. YOU ARE WRONG. Elliott Wave Theory is driven by the gain and loss of value of anything, and the psychological effect it has on you (the trader). The waves are actually explained with the effect behind each wave and why those waves happen the way they do.

There is a better explanation of the psychology, but I can't find it right now. I will update this when I do!

lucif does a splendid job at analysis. He may not always be right, but no one will ever be. He analyzes the data, like a scientist. He gives a hypothesis, like a scientist. If it's wrong, it's back to the drawing board. The point is, it's free (so get over it), it's his opinion (so get over it)!

This thread was inspired by those who hate on technical analysts, and TA in general.  Thanks!
I will add to this post as I think of other things.

Take a look at this scam waiting to happen! Now, I don't want to see any of you complaining of getting scammed

They offer an 800Gh/s rig that uses... wait for it...GPU's. A single box containing what I can only guess to be ~670 AMD HD7990's (I don't know where they put'em in that tiny case.  

Q; Is your hardware based on a custom ASIC chip?
A; No, the hardware is comprised of AMD GPU stream processors on VLIW-5 architecture

Linky: https://www.cpcelectronics.co.uk/acatalog/cpc-products.html

More discussion on this here. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=132017.0

[Getting Started:]

SierraChart is an advanced price charting software which offers real-time price updating, studies, and draw-on-chart capability.
The current charting options available to the Litecoin community leave a LOT to be desired. Now, Litecoiners can have the same charting and indicators that Bitcoiners have enjoyed for over a year and a half.
That is why I wrote this easy to use feed which imports the BTC-e.com market data into Sierrachart.

Getting Started:

• Download and install Sierrachart. (Latest version available here- http://www.sierrachart.com/index.php?l=doc/download.php#download)
• Download the latest feed. (here- BTCeChartFeed_win_binaries )
• Start the feed
• Run Sierrachart software
• Once loaded, click on File->New/Open Historical chart then select LTC_BTC.csv and/or LTC_USD.csv

Once set up, you should have a chart similar to this:



You can then customize your chart with Studies (Indicators, oscillators, Averages) and chart settings.

Nice howto for running Sierrachart on linux is here.

Download the latest source here: http://sourceforge.net/projects/btcechartfeed/files/BTCeChartFeed%20Source/
Download the latest win binaries here: http://sourceforge.net/projects/btcechartfeed/files/BTCeChartFeed_win_binaries/BTCe_Datafeed-v0.1.2_win_Binaries.zip/download

ToDo:
-Support for additional currency pairs in a future release
-Add market depth

Changelog:

• 22-12-2012 New version [v0.1.1] released (fixed the bug)
• 1-3-2013 Minor changes to console format [v0.1.2] released

Anyone else making a killing off this buy high sell low bot?

This thing is pretty sweet...For us, not him!  

First I placed a 100BTC pile at each end of the spread $7.0325<->$7.18.
Then replenish each as it goes.
??
Profit

I've moved about 700BTC in the last hour or two using this bot. Now the spread is starting to close in. Seems others are catching it too now.

[PS2 Games:]

-PRICE DROP-
In light of the higher exchange rate, I have lowered the prices of remaining items.



I am now selling the last of my mining GPU's. The pics are from August, but properly represent the actual items up for sale. All prices include *shipping/insurance, are flat rate, and fully independent of exchange rate. I will negotiate if exchange rate increases...a LOT.

First on the block I have 2x Sapphire 5830 Extremes: [SOLD]

^{[Image removed]}

Next I have 3x 5770's. Two are ASUS with >2.5yrs warranty remaining. The other is an XFX, and has a lifetime warranty.



-All graphics cards come with all originally supplied accessories-


Swiftech MCW60 Universal VGA waterblock. Fits ALL modern GPU's




PS2 Games:
Bloody Roar 3
Dave Mira BMX XXX
Ghost Recon
Gran Turismo 3
Gran Turismo 4
GTA III
GTA San Andreas
IHRA Drag Racing 2
Major League Baseball 2K3
Need for Speed Underground
The Sims Bustin' out
The Urbz Sims in the city
Tiger Woods 2005
Tony Hawk's pro skater 3
Tony Hawk's Underground

Prices:
5830..........35 BTC SOLD
5770..........25 BTC 20 BTC
MCW60......10 BTC 8 BTC
PS2 Games...5 BTC 4BTC


Again. Even if exchange rates plummet, these prices are the price I charge. I am willing to adjust for moderate increases in exchange rates.

I accept BTC or MtGox code ONLY!
*Shipping within ConUS and Can!

Hopefully more to come!
Thanks for reading! =)

Edit:
I'm going to get more pics up as soon as I locate my camera.

So, I stopped CGminer this evening, and when I relaunched CG, Avast AV is telling me it has a rootkit! 
Then it blocks it! So I tried to re-extract from the zip, and Avast pops in and blocks it before unpacking the files!
I don't know if this is cause for alarm, or if the Avast people have some bad info!?!

This is the first occurrence, and does it with all versions 1.5.1-present. (These are the only ones I have, so I don't know about older versions!)

[insurance extra, Con US only!]

I'ma thinking it's time for me to retire from mining!  
I have a few GPUs that I'll have no need for anymore!

**First up, I have an XFX 5770, a few months old, voltage adjustment, clocks to 1000Mhz on stock volts, and runs decently cool (72°)! It's the one with the egg cooler
**Next, we have a pair of ASUS 5770s. 36 days young, voltage adjustment, Both clock to 1000Mhz @ 1250mv (stock for these cards!?!) mid-upper 60°'s

**Finally, I have a pair of <1 week old 5830 extremes! Both clock to 1000Mhz @ stock volts (no voltage adjustment available). These run very cool (53-54° on air)

All GPUs come with all accessories that originally came with them, and the original box!

**Almost forgot! I also have 3 1x-1x PCIe extenders, with the back cut out on the female end! .8 BTC ea.

Looking to get the BTC equivalent of $80USD ea. for the 5770s (shipped), and the BTC equivalent of $125 USD ea. for the 5830s (Sold Locally)
insurance extra, Con US only! Maybe Canada!
I may be willing to cut a deal for multiple cards!


I have no problem using an escrow service such as clearcoin, as long as any applicable fees are covered by the buyer!
I don't sell a lot of things online, to build Rep. I have no HW status, I have a few ebay feedback (all 100%), and I have 2Tx on EOCF (link in sig) for 100% positive iTrader feedback. So, as you see, I don't have a lot of Rep., but all 100% for what I do have.


I'll get some pics up tomorrow after work! It's just too late to get out the camera right now!  

Some pics!  

I have been seeing many many people asking "How do I OC farther than CCC will allow?" So I will do this, so I don't have to keep typing it out!
To overclock beyond CCC limits, Download MSI Afterburner here: http://event.msi.com/vga/afterburner/download.htm

To use (properly) Install to your desired location. For simplicity, I will use C:\programs\MSI Afterburner. Yours may be different!
-Launch MSI Afterburner, then immediately close it!
-Navigate to the install directory, and locate MSIAfterburner.cfg (In my case for this guide, it will be C:\programs\MSI Afterburner\MSIAfterburner.cfg), and open in notepad.
-Change these values
     -"Enable Unofficial Overclocking" to 1 (Omitted on newer versions/combined with the EULA)
     -"Unofficial Overclocking Mode"   to 2
     -Then copy and paste the line below to "Unofficial Overclocking EULA"
I confirm that I am aware of unofficial overclocking limitations and fully understand that MSI will not provide me any support on it
-save and exit
-Re-launch MSI Afterburner Enjoy!

Some helpful notes:
-This works on MOST if not ALL GPUs! You need not have an MSI GPU for this to work!
-Go to settings and set a custom fan curve
-If applicable, unlock voltage control and monitoring
-Save OC settings to a profile
-DO NOT CHECK THE "Apply Overclock at system start-up" BOX
-To set a low memory speed, you may need to lower the slider all the way down, hit apply, exit MSI AB, re-launch, and you should be able to lower farther. Repeat if necessary!

To run multiple GPUs
In the settings, there is a check box for "Synchronize settings for similar graphics processors"! Check that, then set your clocks/fan as you would for a single GPU! There is a monitoring screen to the right that will show: GPU1 usage, GPU2 usage, GPU3 usage etc. This monitoring window also shows temp, voltage (on some GPUs), fan speed, clock speeds, amongst others. You can also go into the settings and choose what you see in the monitoring window. The most necessary info would be % usage, temp, fan speed, but you could use any combination of parameters!

For individual clocking of multiple GPUs, you would leave the "Synchronize" box un-checked, then you can go into settings, at the top there is a selection bar. Select which GPU you want to alter, click OK!

Hi all! I'm new around here! (as you can probably tell by my post count). I've been doing this for two days now. In the first 24hrs, I had 1 stale, and in the last 10 or so hours I've had 30. Is this normal? My overall stale percentage is only .33, but I was just wondering. Does it have something to do with pool volume? It seems to me, that during "peak" hours is when it's at it's worst.
I've read in another post somewhere that a .33% stale rating is near perfect, and above .40% is getting high.