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1  Economy / Economics / Programmable currency is not fungible currency. y/n? on: April 26, 2015, 07:30:47 PM
Being able to differentiate behavior of coin A to another coin B ("coin"  being a unit of any so-called programmable currency such as bitcoin, but this proposition is not bitcoin-specific), in a persistent way, means coins A and B have different utility, are no longer functionally interchangeable, and therefore are worth different things to different users.  This breaks fungibility.

Alternatively, if programming is not persistent across transactions, it has no memory (apart from the most rudimentary unique identity, such as a serial number) and thus is not "programmable" but "able to be tracked by something else".  This makes the coin no different than any current electronic payment system where external, programmable scaffolding (in the form of off-ledger memory and logic) is used to track, route, and generally superimpose conditional behavior onto the currency.  

Are fungible currency and programmable currency mutually exclusive concepts?  
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Archaeology time: Was there ever an [ANN] thread for NBL (Nibble)? on: December 13, 2014, 08:19:54 AM
The forum search brings up nothing.  I am trying to find the original ANN threads for some really old shitcoins that are miraculously still traded for some research on coin proliferation and i get bupkis on Nibble.  Anyone know where the original post was ..uhh.. posted?
3  Economy / Service Discussion / Getting a bank account at JapanNet Bank (Mt. Gox's bank) on: December 05, 2013, 11:32:44 PM
Has anyone tried this?  Does it make life easier when trying to get non-BTC funds withdrawn from Gox? 

4  Economy / Service Discussion / Mt Gox frequently not matching orders at market price - anyone know why? on: December 05, 2013, 11:05:14 PM
So I am toying around with Mt Gox doing some playtrading since I can't seem to actually get their customer service to ever process my AML verification so I can move my money out of that dump*.

More than 10 times in the past few days I have observed Mt.Gox posting a "Last" transaction value that was well over ask prices, or under Bid prices I have set on booked orders.

I thought it was just a fluke for a while, but I am starting to wonder if there must be a better explanation.

To make sure this is not my imagination I booked two small orders and gave them a minute to be fully processed and posted 'open,' and then watched the last trade price ticker fluctuate down toward their prices. 

Just as I am expecting to see the orders filled, suddenly a "last" transaction is shown well below my bid prices, and my orders stayed unfilled:



the "last" price would then bounce up above my bid prices again.  Is someone actually buying well below market price and if so, how?   

* fiat friction is a serious problem with Mt Gox, and  I suspect it plays a major role in Gox's high exchange rates, and by extension to Bitcoin's valuation in general due to Gox's size and influence in the market.
5  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin is rising in value for no good reason at all on: November 23, 2013, 06:38:49 AM
It is rising as fast as it is only because transacting in it is terribly disincentivized (which is the complete opposite of what it claims). 
You can't spend it easily, and you can't change it back into fiat easily. Once people who bought in figure this out, what else is there to do but hold it?
And this kicks off the recursive bubble process:

People don't want to spend it because they'll lose out on market gains.  When I say 'spend' i am also referring to buying fiat with it, not just goods.

No spending = supply bottleneck #1, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

Not only do people not want to spend it, it is exceedingly difficult do when you do. I am not talking a handful of token "look at me hop on the bitcoin fadwagon, gibe me free press coverage nao thx" pizzas and subway sandwiches and VPN accounts here, i am talking real consumer economy-driving spending. 

And wait till mom and pop average figure out how hard it is (if not impossible) to get any hard cash funds out of any exchange (i am looking at you, Mt.Gox, with your 7 day email response times), particularly US$, and most acutely when they *need* it back for holiday shopping. Cue flood of evening news hit piece stories on the long faced sad sacks and bag holders who are astonished to find that they can't buy their family Christmas presents because their bitcoin 'bonanza' is useless as a means of practical day to day commerce.

I suspect that up to half of the apparent "popularity" of Bitcoin the past 4 weeks or so, is entirely due to the friction of moving funds in - and especially out -  of Bitcoin.   

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.
6  Other / Beginners & Help / Transaction speed when mining activity starts to level off and other downsides on: November 18, 2013, 07:44:11 PM
So I think it is clear that for Bitcoin to become established past this initial hype phase, it needs to be capable of replacing ordinary fiat-based transaction functionality. 

My understanding is that mining is also the means by which transactions are recorded in the blockchain, so mining and transactions are inextricably linked.

So, already it takes quite a long time to confirm a transaction, not to mention the problems that arise with the natural scarcity of BTC (Coinbase) which seems to be an argument against it becoming a practical means of replacing fiat anytime soon. But isn't this the narrative that is driving up the adoption and acquisition of BTC right now (and for the forseeable future), particularly by non-techies?  They hear "It's not a bubble, it's a foundation for replacing money-as-we-know-it!" and this comforts them that they are not buying into a gold crash 2.0 or tulip mania 2.0 or the housing bubble or magical beanstalk futures etc.  But it seems to me that once there is no practical way to mine BTC any more, the considerable cost of running a mining operation will clearly be a bad investment for anyone who is not doing it as a hobby (and it's already well priced out of hobby range at this point), so real, grown-up business decision factors will be at play.   And if mining cannot keep up with the scaling of transaction processing nor satisfy the need for Visa-like instant transactions, causing them to slow down even further relative to the increased adoption of the currency, who will use BTC?   It only takes a few bad stories to tilt the media toward "Today, yet another early Bitcoin adopter, $RETAILER, has just announced they are no longer accepting Bitcoin!!!1!!1one"   

Hunch:   The biggest long term investors in BTC, for better or worse, will be the major credit card companies, who will use their massive existing data center infrastructure to take over the transaction processing burden from the hobby miners in order to ramp up and collect transaction processing fees.   

Also... What happens on Black Friday when Joe Sixpack BTC investor, who was only persuaded after a lot of cajoling by his kid/coworker/news story to give Bitcoin a try and dumped $5000 from his 401k or savings account into it, attempts to pay with (or just simply convert into fiat) some of his newly inflated BTC to do Christmas shopping... and finds out that actually using it is a *lot* harder than it was made out to be by his Bitcoin-evangelist friend?  I have a feeling that Nov 27,28,29 will be a very interesting test of the average person's confidence in Bitcoin for this reason.  Yes I know the USA isn't the only bitcoin participant, but a *lot* of countries celebrate Christmas now, or are affected in some way by the sales cycle it creates.  The news media loves this kind of "poor average joe" themed hit piece, because there's a huge audience of frustrated haters brewing, those who missed out on the last 6 months and are tired of hearing about how that one guy down the street made $20,000 on his $500 investment.
7  Other / Beginners & Help / MT.Gox time lapse video as it breaks through US $600/1BTC on: November 18, 2013, 07:03:32 PM
Made another of these Gox order book time lapse vids to help me better get a natural feel for the behavior of the BTC/Dollar relationship as it reaches and passes headline-grabbing milestones.  This follows a similar vid made when it passed $500, though I compressed the timeframe a lot more (30 to one instead of 10 to one), which makes it more fun to watch.  Grin

made mostly for my own enjoyment as to help me learn about both Bitcoin as well as how to use YT, but i hope other folks find these informative as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWWWE96X4Qw
8  Other / Beginners & Help / MT Gox live 10 hour time lapse video of the $500 price level break on: November 17, 2013, 07:14:49 PM
Hi all,  just wanted to let you know there's a video on YT up that shows the MtGox order book over a 10 hour period from a couple hours before and a couple hours after the 500 USD mark was passed.   I realize that Gox isn't the end all be all of BTC exchanges, but I thought it was useful to see how the buy/sell patterns behaved during the break in video form, it gives you a different feel for it than the ticker graph alone.

Also, my first YT upload ever. yay for me.

http://youtu.be/nmfX09BSuZk
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