[Superbet]

I just opened a topic about how 14 out of 16 teams in the Romanian league have a casino as main sponsors, #rdluffy showed me that is nothing I should be amazed, as Brazil tops that, and then #Hispo said something that made me google

I wonder if the European Union would eventually step into the level of advertisement casinos are reaching in these leagues,

Well, get your tinfoil hat ready for what I hit:

Romanian sports betting group Superbet, founded in 2008 and still controlled by entrepreneur Sacha Dragic, with Blackstone investment fund as a strategic investor, announced the appointment of Hans-Holger Albrecht, an experienced executive who served as Deezer CEO during 2015-2021, as Chairman of the Board of Directors.

Hans-Holger Albrecht is the brother of the European Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen

Now, Romanian casino powered by Blackstone hiring the brother of the EU commissioner as second in charge man was not on my bingo list!

Do you think gambling companies will get to have enough money, powerful connections to manage what even the tobacco industry failed at, complete domination of advertising in every sport that no country would find a majority in their parliament to even issue a draft law against it?
So, forget the oil/weapons/pharma cartels, what do you think of gambling companies starting in the EU, the same type of lobby the US is known for?
This is an unrestricted tinfoil topic, I'm not going to argue against even the wildest theories!

Yeah, what do you think?
I got tired of reading and ignoring 100 topics where people just quote the first post and rewrite the same garbage about how gambling is bad, how it's about family life, if you should gamble, how you shouldn't gamble, how it's actually good to gamble,  like come on, how about we get a topic where people can have a discussion using at least 2% brain power outside super saiyan mode.

Hint: those are the 16 jerseys of the 16 teams in the Romanian First League that is going to start!

Thoughts?

[FALSE]

Starting from the topic here I saw a lot of comments, a lot of opinions, but I don't know how magically almost everyone missed the point about those true differences
So let's go and create a bit of an info topic about it

Assumptions
1) Bookies are about sports, prediction markets are about other events
FALSE

Bookies can have politics
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
and .......Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest
https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets/nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest/11973705

Polymarket has also sports
https://polymarket.com/sports/live

2) Bookies are centralized entities, polymarket is decentralized
Quite false

Yeah, all sports bookies are centralized, but Polymarket is run by a US company, running on a centralized platform, and it has people in charge of results, which might end in situations like this https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-720742-20250326
So no, Polymarket is quasi-decentralized, more in branding than reality!

2) Predictions market run on blockchain, they use only crypto are non-custodial
FALSE

While Polymarket only uses crypto, Predictit uses only fiat and Kalshi simply accepts crypto as deposits.
Neither Kalshi nor Predictit have any blockchain running!

Now, back to the main differences in actual play

• With sports bookies, you bet against the odds the bookie gives you, it's either a yes or no on that bet.
  With a prediction market, you bet against other users, it's a market, so you buy options at one price and your bet is essentially on people trading against you, without digging deeper and making it easier to understand, buy cheap, sell at a higher price!
  
• There is a slight resemblence in this and cashing-out, meanign that if you bought "yes" at 4 cents and now it's 8 cents it would be quite the same as cashing out on a bet you took at 6x when your team is leading by 2-0 and the odds have dropped to 1.5 or something. But that's as much as it can go!
  
• Another difference in the style of gambling/trading is that you can set your bets, you can't have a waiting bet if, for example, in Botafogo vs Plameira you think Botafogo is too low at 3.5 and you would want to place it only at 5x, you can't do that with a sport bookie, but in a markt exchange you can place your bid wall at 20 cents per dollar, it might never get filled but it's an option you have.
  
• Another major difference, you will not have parlays on a prediction market, so no combining two bets, unlike with a sports bookie.
  
• Unlike bookies, with most predictions, market settlements are being made according to sources, which poses a real problem, like this bet:
  https://polymarket.com/event/fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july
  Good luck reaching a result that will be accepted by everyone!

Finally, do traditional bookies have something like this?
Yes, they have, it's called an exchange, offered by bookies like Betfair or Matchbook, which run quite on the same principle as a prediction market!


I hope I covered the main differences with this, if I missed something, reply and I will add it!

[$45 million]

If I get no takers after this, I give up!  

People hated :
- the idea of betting on war (not my topic)
- betting on the return of Christ because of morality
- taking a bet on the 2028 election cause it's too early

Then, how about the weather?
Does anyone have a problem with betting on the weather?  

And yeah ladies and gentlemen, the volume the continous betting on NYC temperature has a volume of $45 million, 38 for Chicago, and 20 mills for Denver, at which point I am willing to bet with any non-American that 9 out 10 will need 5 tries to point it on amap with a radious of 100 miles!

So, to put things into perspective, Americans are betting on the daily weather in 3 cities, the daily GDP of Salvador!

Any takers?

A few months ago, I had a lenghty private discussion after a series of my posts arguing how Martingale was stupid and how no matter what variation of it you try, you will end up losing, now with other variation poping up, which would involve only betting on favorites with a fixed term loss and a bit of extra flavor to it (you will see it down the line)

Now, since the football season is over and I wouldn't have the patience for one round per week, no way I'm doing as in this one, or god no my other experiment, I'm playing it with my favorite sport, horse racing.


So the rules of the experiment are pretty easy
- Bet only on under 6/4 or 2.5 favorites for UK and Ireland (sorry USA, no way I'm going to lose nights over this), no bet if two are under 6/4
- Bets are on SP rates, as per skybet rates
- Initial bet is $1, next bet must cover that till 5 consecutive losses
- After 5 consecutive losses, the bet is doubled till your winnings cover the first chain of losses
So you lose 1+2+4+8+16 (total 31), you double the bet to $2 and you must win 16 times, if not, double again!
- Stop loss for the experiment is $1000, or $1000 in profit (this is a private deal  ), it needs 6 days of consecutive losses for a wipe-out!


Now, obvious questions before the first day
- Loss or profit? 
- How long do you think it will take to reach either?
- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

[gambling]

Admit it, you read the title and you thought, look at Stompix, legendary member and he opens a topic about religion in the Gambling section!

Well, surprise, it's about gambling!
So if you're too soft to bet on ww3 or nukes going on, you can bet on the second coming of Jesus!
After we had the option on betting on the next pope, why not on Jesus or the Rapture?

https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1750043484804

Now, since we talk about the actual gambling stuff
- 2.8% for 6 months, this is around 5.6% income, comparable to interest rates, worthy?
- Do you consider it a safe bet? Or are there risks? 
- I'm a bit puzzled about thot it's sovled:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

I mean, what if he lands on X-mas but he is acknowledged only by January 3rd for example

Anyhow, $617,283 Vol, 97.3 cents for 100 for No, any takers?

This is probably the most interesting all on gambling I've ever seen! I guess everyone remembers topics about self-exclusion and how those don't work and how casinos don't want to enforce that, now here is a twist in that.

https://sbceurasia.com/en/2025/06/06/romania-to-reform-gambling-self-exclusion-

Among other articles, this one paragraph in the proposal catches the eye:

Players who provide proof of having completed the self-exclusion formalities are entitled to have the amounts played during the self-exclusion refunded within 48 hours at the latest, based on a request submitted to the operator, at any of the points of operation or online.

So basically it forces casinos to enforce self-exclusions, otherwise guess what every gambler with a brain cell is going to do — exclude themselves, then enter a casino, bet $10,000, if they win they take the profits, if they lose they file a complaint and they will get their money back as the casino broke the law by allowing them to play.

There is also a second proposal on a cap on gambling that would cap player deposits at 10 percent of their reported monthly earnings. Don’t know how this would be enforced with physical casinos, but online it would be quite easy.

Yup, no reason to think you've seen it wrong, we actually have bookies taking odds on the next president election!!!
And if you can't think of a name right off the bat, don't worry... you do have a lot of choices, and when I say a lot, it is a LOT!

Also yes, you can bet on:
- James Lebron
- Taylor Swift
- Hulk Hogan  

If that list is too long, the only ones under 20 odds right now are
- JD Vance at 3.75
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom at 10
- Pete Buttigieg at 12 and Josh Shapiro at 16
And no, you can't bet on Trump!

[A man has stolen $10,000 from his girlfriend]

Yup, $6. So why would this be a story? How could we ramp it up to make it clickbaitish?

Let's first change the currency, exchange the $6 to naira, but then forget about it and leave the sum in dollars.
The new title becomes:
A man has stolen $10,000 from his girlfriend — now this is title worthy.

Let's add the man has also won, from 10k naira to 100 million, so let's again forget about the currency and make it 100 MILLION USD! And spice it up with the girlfriend suing him!
New title:
Man steals $10k from girlfriend, wins $100 million, girlfriend sues him!

Since it's all made up, let's not care about where it happened it's either Nigeria in 2021 or Uganda in 2025

But since it's a fake story anyhow, let's spice it up let's add a picture from 2019 about a guy that won a parlay with his own money and little drama whatsoever.

So, what did the story turn out to be, much like a Radio Yerevan joke:

Q: Is it true that Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov from Moscow won a car in a lottery?
A: In principle yes, but it wasn't Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov, but Aleksander Aleksandrovich Aleksandrov; he is not from Moscow but from Odessa;
It was not a car, but a bicycle; he didn't win it — it was stolen from him.

Moral of the story?
Stop believing every post on Twitter or Facebook. Ignoring the fact that every bitcoiner should live by the principle of "don't trust, verify," these are gambling stories, and you could trust a gambler about this as much as a fisherman and his stories about the 20-meter 100 tons carp he just failed to catch.

This bet on Formula 1 



In case you're wondering if it's not already a done deal, no, Piastri has 5 wins, so he needs another two for the bet to be won.
Worth it? (Big /S)

[you]

Starting from this topic here and not waiting to pollute that discussion with a different approach
Turning $0.03 to $171,591.95 on BetFury.com

Ignoring what the winner thinks and his style of play, what do you feel after seeing something like this, and what would be your choice?

A) Try your luck a few times on that exact same game?
B) Make a mental note to avoid that game since it paid a ton, so it won't pay again
C) Look for other games with huge possible multipliers and spend a few pennies on them
D) Look for a game and decide to play more than usual because maybe today is the day?
E) Nothing, cause it's Saturday and you feel like being lazy is the best

Feel free to choose more than one 

From the start, no it didn't happen to me  , that's not why I am asking.

So, have you ever found yourself in a situation where, after getting profits month after month on a specific sport the bookie decided to limit you to something like $10 or $5 per bet while still allowing you to bet and deposit/withdraw? This does not take into consideration limits applied right after a deposit or after receiving bonuses, like most of the scandals in the reputation board, leave those out of this topic.

This is only addressed to people who have constantly won over long periods of time, that are in net profits, and have been slapped with a limit.

And full disclosure, I'm on a 4-figure profit over quite a few years with one of my horse racing bookie, I was just wondering if I finally cross the 5 digits mark, would they start looking over? 

So, here I am watching racing and the next course bet is on and here are the odds:



It's a class 6 event, so weak horses, I would never touch such a race but look at the name of the favorite!!!
Just because you're into crypto, would you take a shot at a horse named Cryptos Dream?
Something like a sign or whatever?

Last week I was binge-watching Breaking Bad and saw a horse named Tuco Salamanca racing, took twice a gamble on him and it ended with one win and one loss, nothing much, just pennies- but I felt like it was a funny bet!

So, do you put bets on things that look funny to you, like a 1.69 or 6.9 bet or when the name of the player is something funny or maybe he has the same family name as your or anything else, a bet in which you don't analyze anything other than the name?

Trump announced that he is considering making Bitcoin legal tender

Ahead of the imminent tariff war, Trump just came out of the blue and posted this on Twitter (x)


https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1902818394946277485

Price is already up 11% at $98,500 as I type, we will hit 100k in no time but is the new ATH around the corner?

Hi,

I urgently need 22800000 pMerit to cover my poker losses.
Will pay up 25% interest per hour starting now.

Adress:
1pm3r1tFYtH3m0S69dgnPKR69

To be deleted at the end of the day!

[-5]

Yesterday I was reading a topic about applying Martingale in sports (don't do it!!!) and then while I was looking at the races this happened- a weird coincidence, but again the real life example of why such tactics are really bad.

So, start of the horse racing in the UK, plenty of favorites, let's say you started with $5 and you would have played martingale. (bad idea!!)

14:15 Market Rasen, Loch Frisa 1.9, beaten 13 lengths,...things happen,right?  -5
14:30 Hereford, Alexandra Larose 2.0, twice a winner, let's put $10 everyone betting on it odds going down, faded completely in the race
14:45 Market Rasen, Youdecide (IRE), clear 1.7 favorite, so that makes a $28 bet seriously they can't lose 3 times in a row...beaten by 9:1 horse,

Hmm, three times, this is weird, next race..

15:00 Hereford, 1.44 favorite from top yard, it has to be,you have to bet $110 but it's bulletproof...ends 4th 
15:15 Market Rasen, 1.9 favorite CD winner, $176 down on it,horse drops rider
15:32 Hereford, 1.6 favorite, again last time winner, let's be real the favorites can't lose 6 times in a row, we need $560, but he will win! Ends second!
15:50 Market Rasen, Nobody's Perfect, 1.9 favorite, it's the 7th horse!!!!!, $995 down!!!  Ends up last!

Come on, 7 times, it can't go on like this, can it? New racetrack starts it must change things

16:20 Kempton , Greydreambeliever , it has the dream and believe in the name, it must be the one, 1.6 odds, you need to put down $3120...and he will lose 
16:55 Kempton, Shamefull, 1.73 favorite, he will be the one right? $7,917 on him, ends 2nd.
17:00 Market Rasen, Uptown Dandy, 1.6 favorite, it's the 10 bet, $23,266 , ends 4th.

Finally
17:17 Hereford, Jimbo Sports at 1.9 wins!!!!
Your bet had to be 44,032, you had already lost $35,220 so you needed 80k in bankroll but success!
You have won 5$!


This is why I advise everyone, stay away from Martingale!
And stay away from events when you think that just because something unusual has happened 5 times in a row, it will stop happening! It might happened 10 times.

I had a previous topic about early cahs-out and a list of pros and cons from it but at that point what I probably missed doing was actually giving an example, now as the things that you expect less do eventually happen, just a few minutes ago I made a small mistake.  

I was bored as hell, one of the racetracks had a delay because of a jockey injury, I didn't especially like any of the horses that were racing, so I said, I'm just going to randomly pick one and be done with it. So I have chosen a somewhat favorite at the 15:45 at Sedgefield, and then did a fat finger mistake without realizing it, so instead of $5 without knowing I put $55, I can't even remember when was the last time I made such a mistake if ever.

So I was watching the race, the favorite was in front but he was carrying his head around very weirdly and nothing about his race despite leading was convincing, I said this is my only bet today, fuck it, I don't want to lose and I'm not going to start searching for another one on such a boring day, so let me cash out while he was still leading, and to my surprise when I tapped the cash-out option, it was 55, not 5 and I was still being able to get $23 in profit.

Immediately pressed the button and then watched the race, watched as this unfolded:
From 2.25 favorite at the moment of the cahs-out, he was only 1.4 and then...


https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2025-03-20/sedgefield/848838/visit-the-new-betvickerscom-website-handicap-hurdle

In case anyone misses this, the initial bet would have been lost as the horse was caught and passed in the last furlong.

This is my 9th early cash-out on horse racing this year (according to the dashboard) none! of the bets would have won in the final.

[so long as they can withdraw winnings made with their own funds, no matter how much or how little they have played.]

I am seriously getting tired of the same things being said over and over by some people, and some are really but really annoying

The most annoying one of all is the thing about the ToS, too many gullible people think that if a casino writes something in their ToS then that's it it's the law of the universe, well, surprise, it's not like that. In the EU/UK we have these: Unfair contract terms diretcive which basically says that it doesn't matter than in your Terms and Conditions you write that you don't offer any kind of compensation or refunds for the price of a product, that's not fair and any EU judge will rule against that company   

So sticking to gambling did you know that:

- A licensed operator should not allow you to gamble or allow you to deposit before they ask for identity verification and at that stage they should provide the customer with a full list of the verification they might ask you and once you agree to that they will not have the right to seek additional information?

Before permitting a customer to deposit funds, licensees should inform customers what types of identity documents or other information the licensee may need the customer to provide, the circumstances in which such information might be required, and the form and manner in which such information should be provided.

https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/licensees-and-businesses/lccp/condition/17-1-1-customer-identity-verification
- A licensed casino can't ask for further verification before a withdrawal if that verification wasn't mentioned at the stage at which the user has deposited or cleared verification;

Our rules say that a gambling business can't ask you to prove your age and identity as a condition of withdrawing your money if they could have asked you at an earlier point.

- Casinos must display the balance and the bonus differently at any stage in your account balance:

The deposit balance and bonus balance must always be displayed separately in a clear and prominent manner.

But here comes the bomb:

Operators must allow players to withdraw funds from their deposit balance, even if they are allocated to a bonus including when a bonus is pending or active in the account. Operators are free to require players to meet wagering requirements for bonus winnings so long as they can withdraw winnings made with their own funds, no matter how much or how little they have played.

TLDR or simplified version
A casino can say in the ToS you have to sacrifice your firstborn child before you can ask for a withdrawal, but that doesn't make it legal. 

Thoughts?

LE:
Solved.

[Satoshi must be proud of the situation, I'm sure he is clapping with both hands this milestone as the greatest achievement he could dream of!]

In 1976 president Jimmy Crater put his family business in a blind trust, in order to avoid conflict of interest while being president, in 2025 president Trump has launched two meme coins for his family taking full advantage of his position and not having a care in the world.

This is why they wanted Gray Gensler out, not because he was anti-crypto as Gary was actually a true bitcoin maxi, a dying breed even here, during all his reign he was pro-Bitcoin and antishitcoins, he went exactly after the exchanges that would list crap like $melania and $trump without a sweat, a coin with %80 locked and just %10 distributed to the public with a single page than in its disclaimer says stuff like:

Trump Memes are intended to function as an expression of support for, and engagement with, the ideals and beliefs embodied by the symbol "$TRUMP" and the associated artwork, and are not intended to be, or to be the subject of, an investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type. GetTrumpMemes.com is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign or any political office or governmental agency. CIC Digital LLC, an affiliate of The Trump Organization, and Fight Fight Fight LLC collectively own 80% of the Trump Cards, subject to a 3-year unlocking schedule. CIC Digital LLC and Celebration Cards LLC, the owners of Fight Fight Fight LLC, will receive trading revenue derived from trading activities of Trump Meme Cards

And now, they are free to do whatever they like, they have put a shitcoinlover and a pump and dump lover in charge of the SEC that is on the payroll of all the exchanges that are fleecing users buying this crap and everything is better for crypto right?

Satoshi must be proud of the situation, I'm sure he is clapping with both hands this milestone as the greatest achievement he could dream of!

But if you still think that's not a big deal, let me tell you how this will go from now:







This is Trump advisor, pumping a tiktok coin, selling then all his coins because it was going down and then he says he is sorry  /end

And because the guy in charge of the SEC that was going after guys like these and was asking for laws to punish those that would shill shitcoins and exchanges that would list such obvious scams is now gone, here you have, much freedom, such token, wow reality!
Enjoy decentralization lawlessness!