Hi guys.
I always thought the price of bitcoin was increasing exponentially since the beginning(not counting volatility and other kind of cycles). And it would make sense because, the positive growth rate of bitcoins is decreasing with time.
But...the truth it is that the growth rate of the value of bitcoin(in dollars) is somewhat steadily decreasing if you look at long term trend.
Actually, the peaks in the growth rate of the price are getting lower and lower.
Maybe the trend does not matter because maybe in the future the trend would be other one, but the truth is that at the beginning of bitcoin, the growth rate of the price of bitcoin was very high, and so do the supply of bitcoin! For that to make sense, the demand would need to be very very strong. At the same time, bitcoin is very popular now but the last boom was relatively weak if you look at the relative change (growth rate) of its price compared to booms in the past.
The theory says that the data is an anomaly (or there are unknown extra factors at play?), and it's true that in some year, the price behavior was very weird, as if bitcoin was starting to stagnate in value.
But, overall, it seems to me that the data says that the growth rate of the price is stabilizing. Which is weird because the growth rate of the quantity of bitcoin is much lower than the past and bitcoin is popular like hell and people should actually get eager to buy.
I wanted to hear some thoughts on this issue. Personally, I take the data with lots of salt, but even so, i think it does not make much sense the behavior that i just described.(Again: with the growth rate of supply of bitcoins being much lower than the past, price change is far from maximum. That maximum was actually when the growth rate of the supply was very high!)