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Let me start by saying I'm a big supporter of Bitcoin. I like everything about it. I love the technology, how it's an alternative to fiat, etc. However, as a supporter, I've grown more and more dubious of its founding.
Even more recently, I've started to see more reason to fear how governments could use this technology in ways currently unforeseen. For example, let's just say governments convince the public of Bitcoin's merits as a replacement for cash, and decide to do away with cash. Let's say they institute their own crypto. The Fed, governments and the public moved towards a system similar to Bitcoin for cash-like exchanges. Maybe we even kept our non-cash, bank-related transactions as they are - digital. What becomes extinct under this scenario? Non-gov't sanctioned cryptos and cash.
To me this presents a very large problem and the problem is in regards to interest rates. As you may know, the ECB recently announced a negative interest rate policy. To many this seems straight-up confusing. So, you're charging people to save? Basically, yes.
The one defense against this is - cash. What do I mean? Well, cash can be put in your pocket or under your mattress and in a sense save your money (because the alternative is you losing money by putting it in a bank). You can't do this with digital cash stored in a bank under this scenario. Of course, one could argue that independent cryptocurrencies (as they currently are) would also be protection. But, I think my issue with that is, governments at large could ban them. Yes, whether we want to admit this or not, this is possible.
So, for example, the US gov't (and gov'ts like it) could create their own crypto, ban all "free" cryptos", do away with cash and institute negative interest rates - sucking out all monetary wealth to pay for it's ever-growing debt.
I'm probably reading too much into this, but this scares the crap out of me... please calm me down...
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OK. So, I would like to set up a forecast model for Bitcoin price. I have ideas on what independent variables impact the price, but I'd like to ask a crowd just in cast I'm missing something.
The model would like this:
Bitcoin's price (today or tomorrow) is a function of X1, X2, X3... Xn.
So, please chime in with the following what is your thought on an independent variable (X1) that impacts Bitcoin's price? Does the variable impact today's price, tomorrow's or both? Finally, and most importantly is the variable quantifiable and what is the source of the data? Why?
I'll give an example - X1 is Bitcoin's available supply. The available supply impacts today's and tomorrow's price. The available supply is quantifiable and the data source could be obtained from blockchain. Quantity supplied impacts price (or exchange rate) - basic econ 101.
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If you could have profit some days and lose by the amount Bitcoin loses on other days, would that be sufficient?
In other words, some days you may have swings of 25%+ with your altcoin portfolio, others you may have losses, but if you could consistently (9/10) beat Bitcoin loss/gain (with your altcoin portfolio) would that be enough?
Curious on opinions...
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Using data from coinmarketcap, I've created a model which can be used to predict which coins to invest in (for a daily price gain).
Thus far, the model appears to work relatively well. Yet, it has glitches. I should also point out the model isn't used to forecast which coins are "best". It's simply based on factors that lead to daily price change.
I will plan to post here and see if my model is working or not.
3/5/14
Today's top 5 will be:
1. Quibit
2. Olympic coin
3. Peseta coin
4. Ultra coin
5. Riecoin
Today's biggest losers will be:
1. Union coin
2. Megacoin
3. Quark
4. Protoshares
5. Astrocoin
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You can take a listen here: http://13inlet.com/You can also download the song for free (or pay what you want) at the site above. Tips are appreciated, of course. 
Lyrics:
Our world looks different now, with wealth destroyed by doubt
There’s no value in your account
Seven wisemen stand behind, what’s become a shadowed lie
Their open spigot’s pouring from the sky
And I know, it’ll grow
There’s no stopping the printing, it’ll go on tonight
The computer’s getting tired with all the bonds their buying
We can save
And keep it safe
Sound money
It can be...
This cryptocurrency
Our world may be better now, with roots grown underground
See the gold shoots starting to sprout?
Did the faceless give mankind, a way to take back their rights?
A form of money, that can’t unwind?
We know, it’ll grow
There’s no stopping the momentum, it’ll go on tonight
The people have a choice, as the stars align
We can save
And keep it safe
Sound money
In a public key
This crytocurrency.
Money should be free. It should be....
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Hi all, I'm trying to create a model for cryptocurrency prices. I'd like to use "daily" data, to simply things. My conceptual idea is to look across some set of time (time-series) and across coins (cross-sectional), so I'd use panel data. Let's break it down, for each coin there's a...
Supply - this is pretty straight forward. I don't have this data in daily units (so a good data source would help here - got one?), but I know it's possible to obtain. Each coin has a supply out today, and each has a total supply (future). From this info, I can proxy supply. Right now, I know this info is available at http://coinmarketcap.com/ but unfortunately, the site does not store historical data. I need the data history. Demand - this data isn't as straight forward, nor available. I have a few thoughts on proxies for this though. One thought is to use volume data (also available on crypto mkt cap). Another is to use "search" data (be it google, twitter, etc.). Perhaps a combination of each. Problem with the search data is: although I'm very confident it exists, I don't know where to obtain something like that. All I'd need is daily aggregates on search for each currency. The goal, of course, will be to use the supply and demand to create a intrinsic price model for each cryptocurrency. Perhaps, even forcasting these. From that, one could then pick winners and losers via investment. Assistance on any of the above is appreciated. I'd be happy to update the thread as I move forward. |
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Hi,
I'm looking for historical data for alt coins. I simply want a daily supply, the daily price average, and the total supply (it will ever have). I plan to run regressions. I think supply is a huge determinant on price.
Is there a source of this data?
Thank you.
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I'm tired of hearing attacks on Bitcoin because there's nothing "behind" it. Ideologues across separate aisles (like Schiff and Krugman) fail to understand this. So, I figured a thread to discuss this in more depth may be considered apt. To me... Money can, and has been defined, as a claim on human labor.
Let's break this down into two sections. First, Gold....For the Shiffs of the world - why is gold valued at all? The typical first answer is it's scarce. OK. But, so is Bitcoin. The second answer typically is there's a demand for it. There's also a demand for a digital currency with low transaction costs. A third answer is it's a product that is mined and is tangible. Bitcoin is "created". It's value is in part derived from cryptology and mining. That act, in and of itself, presents the labor involved and it's inherent value. This, here, the cryptology is always left out when discussing Bitcoin as money. Admittedly, however, the one area that really separates Bitcoin from gold is tangibility (and usefulness there-within). You can't necessarily touch Bitcoin. But, arguing that there's no value to Bitcoin because you can't necessarily touch it is similar to arguing against the value of the internet, social media, or... numbers in any monetary account because you can't touch them. That brings us to dollars (or fiat)....The Krugman's of the world believe the dollar (fiat) has value mainly because of it's reserve status and store of value. Reserve status is obviously something that can change over time, so there's no need to debate that aspect. It's important to point out that the Krugman's of the world, most likely, would not offer scarcity as the triumphant characteristic of money (as they vouch for increases in the money supply). Instead, as Krugman has stated in his blog, he probably would vouch for the Fed itself (or central banks) and it's role in controlling the value of the dollar. The irony is, of course, that Krugman's of the world are arguing that The Fed is providing stability (through human labor, or in his mind, their intellect)... yet, Bitcoin as a claim on human labor (via cryptology, mining) is not as functional. So, at the end of the day, the argument for dollar superiority as a form of money comes down to store of value. And the thought is, it's stored value well, which is laughable considering the Fed has done this... http://pmc.do.am/720px-Components_of_US_Money_supply.svg.png...to the US money supply since the 1970s. The truth is, the dollar has acted as a horrid store of value. I mean, look at Bitcoin's price. That is a reflection of how poor the dollar is as a store of value. ******************************************************* After all of the above, I don't see how one can deny that Bitcoin has the main feature of money. It's a claim on human labor. Now, if we want to get into text book definitions,... I'd argue... 1. Unit of account - Bitcoin = dollar > Gold (not divisible) 2. Store of value - Gold (more tested) > Bitcoin > dollar (dollar has not remained stable) 3. Medium of exchange - Dollar > Bitcoin (could surpass dollar with time) > Gold (difficult to use for transactions) Thoughts? |
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It may seem evident to some, but it's clear that it's not evident to many who have an interest in Bitcoin, so it's worth asserting:
The value of Bitcoin is undoubtedly impacted severely by Fed (and other Central Banks) policy.
This fact was obviously shown again today, as the Fed decided to lower QE from $85 to $75 BLN a month. Bitcoin's value in dollars is certainly impacted by QE because QE expands the money supply of dollars. Nevertheless, prices are also driven by expectations. The fact that the Fed actually did lower QE, albeit slightly, shows an increase in faith in the underlying economy. This, of course, is bad for Bitcoin's exchange rate relative to the dollar because it strengthens the dollar against Bitcoin.
This is why you see Bitcoin hovering below $600.
I still believe Bitcoin will rise back again because there are fundamental problems with the US (and global) economy that are being glossed over with current economic indicators and Fed policy. For example, the Fed claims it will actively alter interest rates once the unemployment rate falls well below 6.5%. Yet, the unemployment rate is skewed by the horrid labor force participation rate. The Fed knows this. Which is why they said today that they won't do this until it falls "well below" 6.5%. In a sense, they ensured that they won't raise rates in the near term. I believe the Fed will either decide to raise QE again in 2014, if the economy shows any sort of slowing, or may actually go through with a full taper. If they do, the value of Bitcoin will plummet. However, the reason I still believe in Bitcoin, is because I don't think the Fed is capable of stepping aside without dramatic consequences to economic growth. When these consequences play out, Bitcoin's value will skyrocket.
I don't like losing value in my Bitcoin, but I think it's good to know why it's happening. Just keep in mind - the value fluctuations are not all demand-driven. Often, supply (Bitcoins/relative to Domestic currency) will be a greater factor.
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Hi,
I'm looking for a united source of Money Supply for all or most alt coins. For example, Bitcoin has about 12 million coins in circulation (current) and will have 21 million (future). I'd like this info for all Alt Coins.
From my perspective, scarcity drives price. That's why I want to know.
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I'm curious - Is there a list of alt coin (money) supplies that exists? For example, Bitcoin has 12 million coins in circulation and will have 21 million total. I'm looking to for this info for all alt coins.
Thanks!
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