[Bitcointalk modern theme]

When, last April 1st, theymos made his proverbial April Fool's, I was intrigued by the new colour.

Of course, the light green was horrible, but it made me realise that the form has its own forum identity from being on the same SMF interface, basically from the Satoshi era.
This is a plus, as it gives this forum a distinctive appearance that makes the forum immediately recognisable. It gives you a sort of pride to write in the exact same forum where Satoshi, Hal, and all the other legends were writing.

There is also a negative twist in this.  
Often, it happens to me to write in public or semi-public spaces. I like to write in my spare time, and I cannot always write in a secluded position, being sure no one would peek over my shoulder.
So I thought the light green was a good choice if we wanted to write on the forum in disguise.
As I am playing with AI, I decided to code a new skin for the forum.

What I wanted to have:

• A modern look for the forum
• The usual light/dark/autosetting schemes
• The possibility to customise the appearance of the forum, at least the main and accent colour

So I started playing with Claude, and in a couple of hours, I made significant progress.
After an extensive debug session with a few friendly users, I can release the first public code.
Consider this still in beta status.

You can install the script from here: bitcointalk modern theme
You can find the code here
As the code is frequently updated, I won't paste it here, but I am providing the link to the code that feeds the scripts.

You need to install a script manager depending on your preferred Browsing interface:

Chrome: Tampermonkey
Firefox: Greasemonkey, Tampermonkey, or Violentmonkey
Safari: Tampermonkey or Userscripts
Microsoft Edge: Tampermonkey
Opera: Tampermonkey or Violentmonkey
Maxthon: Violentmonkey
AdGuard: (no additional software required)

I personally use Tampermonkey.

More information, and additional suggestions for mobile users can be found here

	Light theme (Pearl Scheme - default)	Dark Theme	Light theme (Cream Scheme)
	Message composing panel	Themes customisation panel.

I just added a new mobile version for older phones, which might struggle with the styles. If pages are slow loading and scrolling using the theme on your mobile, just activate the mobile mode via a toggle in the settings panel. This strips some aesthetics details and extra load on the theme, allowing a smoother experience on less powerful devices with the core of the theme.

This is more of a self-paced project, rather than something built for distribution, so feel free to use it under. MIT licence, to copy, improve and share!

Feedback is more than welcome!

Babo CODE certification: code is safe.

Install from here: Bitcointalk modern theme
You can find the code here

Following the Bitcoin pizza shenanigans, I noted that laszlo was online earlier today.
Is that possible?

The profile had a password reset and woke up after a long time:



Checking bpip.org, the informations are pretty confusing:



If the account has changed owner, I think it should be flagged, as the risk of scams could be material.

Anyome has more insight on what it is happening?

[Table of Contents]

The Tangem Wallet has an innovative and unique approach to the most challenging aspect of owning Bitcoin, managing a private seed.
Tangem decided to package an industry-grade secure cold wallet into a credit card form factor, delegating the management of the seed phrase to the companion app, whose backup is mandated to the physical card itself without the user being able to know the phrase in the first place.
This unique approach removes the weaker element, the human being, from the chain of control of the seed, both simplifying the usage of Bitcoin and elevating the security standard.

Note that the Tangem wallet is capable of handling many different cryptocurrencies, but in this review, I will focus only on Bitcoin, without exploring the many features available for the shitcoins. I will focus only on the seedless option, as it is the most innovative one, just understand that a "classic" seed option is present, but in this case, the mechanism would be much more like a conventional Hardware wallet.

Of course, I am a big supporter of self-custody and private seed management. See for example my thread:

Securing Your Seed Phrase with Washers

Finally, of course, I didn't get any funding or any provision from Tangem Wallet or anyone else. This review is only the product of my commitment to this forum. I found an interesting concept and wanted to share it with you guys.



Table of Contents

1. Foreword: what is a cold wallet?
2. Physical Design
3. Setup Process
4. Everyday use
5. Disaster Recovery
6. A word about shitcoins
7. Who can benefit from Tangem the most?
8. Pros and Cons - Expanded
9. Final Remarks


1. Foreword: what is a cold wallet?

A cold wallet is a wallet architecture that allows the seed not to be in an online device ever. The signing of the transactions happens entirely offline. The online part only asks for the offline part, through a secure connection, the signing of the transaction, and broadcasts it, once the offline part has returned the cryptographic signature. In this process, the seed is never exposed online.


Source

There are a few main types of cold wallets, every one has its own specific pros and cons

Type	Pros	Cons
Hardware Wallet	Very secure (private keys never exposed) Easy to use with UI/UX Widely supported by wallets & dApps Portable and durable	Costs money (typically $50–$200) Can be lost or damaged Needs backups of seed phrase
Paper Wallet	Totally offline and immune to online hacks Free to generate No hardware dependency	Easy to lose, tear, or destroy Inconvenient to use for transactions Not beginner-friendly (can be misused)
Air-gapped Computer	Ultimate security (fully isolated from the internet) Flexible (can run custom offline wallet software) Can store many wallets securely	Expensive to set up Requires technical expertise Not portable Complex transaction signing process

Tangem tries to solve the trade-off between the hardware wallet and the paper wallet.

Type	Pros	Cons
Tangem Wallet	Totally offline and immune to online hacks         Free to generate Easy to use with UI/UX Can store many wallets securely	Costs money (typically $100) Can be lost or damaged, but has backups. Needs backups of seed phrase

2. Physical Design

	Tangem Box	Opening the box, you see a brief instruction sheet.
	The Tangem Card is then revealed.	I choose the 3 black card setup.

The Tangem card's design is minimalist, featuring a slim profile with dimensions comparable to the one of a credit card, only barely thicker for durability. It's made from a high-quality plastic material that feels premium to the touch. The card's front typically displays the Tangem logo, and the back includes the card's serial number, NFC symbol, and some essential legal information. A variety of designs are available. I chose the black design which features a totally black, anonymous card, that make the card less obviously relatable to cryptoproducts if found in the wild.

	The Tangem Card is a nicely embossed Logo	The other two cards are completely black
	The Back of the main card has only some drawing, the other two are completely black.	The cards are almost thick as a normal credit card.

The card is nearly indestructible, can be submerged, and is not damaged by X-rays (can safely be scanned at airports) or extreme temperatures. The card is also water-resistant, and dust-resistant, and can operate in extreme temperatures, making it suitable for various environments. The cards have been certified with an IP69K certification.

This durability adds another layer of practicality for users who might want to take a cold wallet with them, without worrying too much about the environment that might be in contact with the device.  
In case of faulty cards, Tangem provides a 25-year product Replacement Warranty.

The wallet interacts primarily with NFC technology, which supports a tap-to-use mechanism. This feature makes it user-friendly and inherently secure since the card must be near a device for any transaction, reducing the risk of unauthorized access. The absence of a screen, while a security concern for some, contributes to the wallet's sleek design and portability, encouraging users to carry their assets with them as easily as they would cash or cards.

This air-gapped operation greatly reduces the risk of attacks from malware or from hacking, as the wallet never exposes sensitive information.
Tangem uses secure cryptographic protocols for each communication: every data transfer between the wallet and the smartphone is cryptographically secure. In case of loss or theft, private keys are inaccessible thanks to physical and software isolation in the design of the workflow. This elevated protection level makes Tangem a viable solution for everyone who wants to have a secure, yet practical solution to store their digital wealth.


3. Setup Process

The setup process for Tangem is quite straightforward. Upon receiving your cards, you download the Tangem app, available for both iOS and Android devices, which guides you through creating a new wallet or importing one. The Tangem App firstly checks the authenticity of both the Secure Elements and the firmware in the Card. Once this has been verified, the App authorizes the Secure Elements to generate the user’s private keys securely within the card's Secure Element.
The secure element is compliant with the EAL6+ security certifications and is developed in collaboration with Samsung Semiconductors. The chip supports multiple cryptographic operations, ensuring that even if the card were to be physically compromised, the data within remains secure.

The user can generate your seed phrase in three ways:

• Seedless: You let TRNG - True Random Number Generator included in the secure element to generate the seed. The seed is generated and stays within the Secure Element and never leaves it. The Seed never gets online. With this configuration, Tangem is a cold wallet.
• Traditional Seed: You use the App to generate the seed and you import the seed in the Tangem Card. The Tangem is actually a Hot Wallet.
• Import your Existing Seed Phrase in the Tangem Card. Tangem
  has to be considered a Hot Wallet, as you need to input the seed in a mobile phone that is probably connected to the internet, it will be later connected to it.

Once you have chosen your preferred method,  the app prompts you to tap your card on your phone.  

	First screen of the Setup Process	A brief introduction to the wallet
	Overview of the meain features ...	... and its security model

Repeating this operation for all the cards in your possession allows you to have a backup for your cards, in case you lose one.

		/td]
	First screen of the Setup Process	A brief introduction to the wallet
	Overview of the meain features ...	... and its security model

I highly recommend a seedless solution only if you order more than one card, otherwise, your funds would be locked in the tangem wallet in case you lose your cards, as in this scheme, the card is the only means you can actually move the funds.
As an alternative, you can opt to create a traditional seed phrase, but this is not mandatory, adding to the wallet's appeal for those who might be overwhelmed by the responsibility of managing such phrases. This more common solution is exposed to the pros and cons of seed management you should already know.  
As the microchip, the Tangem firmware is not open source, and it has been audited by a third-party company. The firmware is not updatable and is permanently written in the Tangem Chip.
The App on the other hand is open source and gets regular updates.

	You need to create an access Code	FaceID integration
	Select the token of your interest	Your functioning wallet (I already received some funds)

The setup process is very easy and straightforward: during the process, I made some errors, primarily removing the cards too soon or exposing the wrong card: the app recognized the problem, and guided me toward the solution and the correct setup.

4. Everyday use

User interface, as you can see, has been designed with a simple and accessible design and language, this makes Tangem wallet particularly suited for experienced users and beginners as well, being particularly clear and tutoring about the choices and steps to be made.

If you want to spend money from your Tangem wallet, just prepare your transaction on the app, then Tap the card.
 The app constructs the raw transaction The card and app exchange data; the app sends the unsigned transaction, and the card’s secure element signs it with your private key.

The signed TX is sent back to the app, which immediately broadcasts the signed TX to the network.
The transaction is signed without the seed never leaving your card!

Of course, this simplicity came at a cost, For crypto newcomers, Tangem significantly reduces the learning curve associated with managing private keys and seed phrases. The app's interface is designed to guide users through transactions with clear, step-by-step instructions. However, for advanced users, there might be a trade-off; the simplicity might lack some of the customization or detailed control options found in other wallets. For example, while sending a transaction, I wasn’t able to set up a fee in Satoshi that wasn’t round: either 1 or 2 Satoshi, not 1.1. While not particularly compelling, this is only an example of a feature that is almost standard in any major wallet.


5. Disaster Recovery

What happens if you lose a card?

If you lose one of the cards in your Tangem Wallet set, the impact depends on which and how many cards you still possess, as well as whether you set up a seed phrase during activation:

1. Tangem Wallet Structure and Redundancy
    

• Tangem Wallets are sold as sets of 2 or 3 physical cards, each of which contains an identical copy of your private key generated during the initial setup process. This redundancy ensures that losing a single card does not immediately lock you out of your funds.
• During the initial activation, you decide how many cards to include in your backup (typically 2 or 3 cards, each with a copy of your seed depending on the number of cards you bought). Keeping these cards in separate, secure locations is crucial to prevent total loss.

 
2. Losing a Single Card
    

• Access Remains Intact: As long as you still have at least one of the remaining cards from that set, you can continue to access and manage your funds exactly as before. The lost card by itself cannot be used to drain your assets, because any transaction still requires scanning one of the remaining genuine cards plus your PIN.
• No In-Place Replacement: You cannot “add” a brand-new card to an already-activated wallet. In other words, once a set is initialized, its private key is cloned only on those cards you originally chose. If you want to restore full redundancy (e.g., return from 2 cards back to 3), you must purchase a new Tangem set and transfer your funds to that fresh wallet.
• Security Considerations: If you suspect the lost card has fallen into malicious hands, it’s wise to move your entire balance from the old wallet into a newly created one (with new cards). That way, even if someone somehow obtains the lost card, they cannot use it to access your assets.

3. Losing All Cards in a Wallet Set

• Without a Seed Phrase (Tangem 1.0 or no seed setup): If your Tangem Wallet was never linked to a seed-phrase backup and all cards are lost or stolen, the private key is gone forever. There is no way to recover access, and your funds become irretrievable.  
• With a Seed Phrase (Tangem 2.0 or Tangem Ring): If, during setup, you opted to generate a BIP-39 seed phrase, you can use that phrase to restore the same wallet (and its private key) on another Tangem-compatible device. In that scenario, losing every physical card does not doom your funds—simply create a fresh Tangem Wallet (or use a software wallet that accepts the same seed), enter the exact 24-word phrase, and you regain full control.  

4. Access Code Protections

• Each Tangem card requires a PIN (access code) before it will sign any transaction. Even if someone finds your lost card, they can’t immediately move your funds without guessing the PIN. After multiple failed attempts, the card enforces delays to prevent brute-forcing.  
• If you forget your own access code, you can reset it only if another card from the same wallet set is available. At least two cards are needed to reconfigure or recover an access code.  

5. Lost Phone vs. Lost Card

• Your smartphone is merely an interface; it does not store your private keys. If you lose your phone, your funds remain safe—just install the Tangem app on a new NFC-enabled handset and scan your remaining card(s) as before.
  
• Conversely, losing all cards equates to losing the private key itself (unless you have the seed).

Source: Tangem Blog


What happens if someone finds your card?

If someone finds a Tangem card, here’s what they can do with it:

1. View the public address and check balances

• By tapping the found card on any Tangem-compatible app, an attacker can read its public address (since the card holds both private and public key pairs). Knowing this address, they can look up your balance and transaction history on the blockchain or in any wallet explorer.
  In other words, they learn exactly how much crypto is stored “behind” that card, but they still don’t have the private key.

2. Cannot extract the private key or seed phrase from the card

• Tangem cards store private keys inside a secure element; those keys can’t be exported or copied out under any circumstances. Even Tangem engineers cannot extract them. Because of this, an attacker cannot clone your wallet or recover your seed phrase solely from having the physical card.

3. Cannot move funds without the access code (PIN)

• Every Tangem card requires the user to enter an access code (PIN) before it will sign any transaction. Without the correct PIN, the card simply won’t authorize outgoing payments.
  
• If someone tries random PINs, the card enforces an increasing delay after each incorrect attempt—after six wrong tries, it adds a one-second delay per subsequent guess (capping at 45 seconds). This makes brute-forcing the PIN practically impossible.
• Even if they somehow guessed the PIN, they’d only be able to sign transactions on that single card. If you had already moved funds off that wallet (e.g., after noticing the card was lost), there wouldn’t be anything left to steal.

4. Could attempt to reset the card—but only if they know the access code

• If an attacker somehow already knows your PIN (e.g., found written down elsewhere), they could use the card to reset it back to factory settings. That wipes out any seed-phrase link and private key, essentially destroying the wallet—but it still does not send funds anywhere.

5. No risk of “silent” key extraction or malware hacks

• Tangem’s secure element is designed so that the private key never leaves the chip. Even a sophisticated “man-in-the-middle” on the NFC interface can’t siphon the key—everything happens inside the chip itself.

Without knowing the PIN, resetting is impossible: the “Forgot your code?” flow itself requires scanning one of the other backup cards in your set.
In short, they cannot hack the card remotely; they must physically enter the correct PIN to sign a transaction.


6. A word about shitcoins

Tangem supports an extensive list of cryptocurrencies, which is continuously expanding. This includes not only mainstream cryptocurrencies but also less common tokens, which are managed through token lists within the app. This broad support is facilitated by the wallet's ability to interact with various blockchain networks directly, ensuring that even as new tokens are launched, Tangem can potentially support them with updates to its software.

One of the standout features is the wallet's integration with decentralized apps (DApps) and DeFi protocols via WalletConnect, a protocol that allows secure communication between wallets and DApps. This integration means users can engage in staking, yield farming, or even play blockchain-based games without needing to expose their private keys.

Users are also allowed to Swap, or Trade, tokens directly inside the Tangem Wallet. Fees are not cheap, but the convenience of having direct conversion between any token is definitely a plus for less experienced users.


7. Who can benefit from Tangem the most?

• Travelers: The tangem form factor makes it ideal for travelers who wish to carry their crypto securely without the bulk of traditional hardware wallets.
• New Crypto Users: Tangem's user-friendly setup and operation make it a go-to for those just entering the crypto space.
• Multi-Currency Holders: those with a diverse portfolio appreciate Tangem's support for a wide array of cryptocurrencies.

8. Pros and Cons - Expanded

Pros:

• Mobility: The card form factor and NFC technology make it one of the most mobile-friendly hardware wallets.
• Security: With no known security breaches and high-level certification, it offers robust protection for digital assets.
• Multi-Card Safety: having a seedless wallet avoids the technicalities of seed management and custody. All is delegated to the card's physical backup. Backup and phone constitute a dual-part system almost unbreakable.

Cons:

• App Dependency:All operations are managed via the app, which could become a single point of failure if not managed correctly. This is not a pure cold card, meant to be unattended for years.
• IF YOU LOSE ACCESS TO ALL YOUR CARDS, YOUR FUNDS ARE GONE. As you have to take care of a backup of your seed in a traditional setup, you have to be careful of your cards in a seedless setup. Backing up a card is by the way easier as the card is not sufficient to spend your coins
• Physical Deterioration: even if the cards are very well built, are not prone to physical damage and the warranty of the Tangem is 25+ YEARS, they contain electronic components that could be prone to failure. It’s better to periodically check the integrity of the cards (maybe at a multiyear-length interval).
• COST of Disposal: In case you want to move your coins to a new Hardware wallet, your only option is to move the funds. There are privacy and economic considerations. Moving funds exposes your funds to on-chain analysis, which is a privacy-endangering situation. Also moving funds requires paying some fees, which is of course not desirable. If you had a seed, you could move Wallet simply by importing the seed in the Tangem.

9. Final Remarks

Tangem Wallet stands out in the crowded space of cryptocurrency hardware wallets by offering a unique blend of security, simplicity, and style. It's particularly appealing to those who value ease of use alongside high-level security, making it one of the best options for everyday users who want to manage their cryptocurrency safely without the complexity of traditional hardware wallets.

However, for users requiring more granular control over their transactions or those heavily involved in the NFT ecosystem, other solutions might be more suitable. Despite these limitations, Tangem continues to evolve, with updates to its app and support for new cryptocurrencies, showing a commitment to staying relevant in a rapidly changing crypto landscape.

In summary, Tangem Wallet isn't just a tool but an innovative solution aimed at cryptocurrency security, that can be both sophisticated and user-friendly, challenging the industry to rethink how we secure our digital wealth.

Today, sending my first merits, I noticed I have a negative stash of merits:



I couldn't send more once I depleted the five merits from my personal allocation.
Is anyone else experiencing the same issue?

[Tether]

21 Capital is a newly formed Bitcoin-focused investment company founded and backed by Tether, Cantor Fitzgerald, and SoftBank Group. Jack Mallers will serve as CEO



More information and a detailed description of the process that will lead to the creation of 21 Capital can be found in the official statement by Cantor:

Tether, SoftBank Group, and Jack Mallers Launch Twenty One, a Bitcoin-native Company, Through a Business Combination With Cantor Equity Partners

The funding structure of 21 Capital is structured as follows:

• Tether up about $1.6 billion in Bitcoin
• SoftBank  about $0.9 billion in Bitcoin
• Bitfinex about $0.6 billion in Bitcoin​
• Cantor Equity Partner about $0.2  billion in Equity
• Cantor Equity Partner about $0.585  billion in pledged investments
  
  • 385 Millions Senior Secured convertible Notes
  • 200 Millions Equity PIPE

With a planned public listing via a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) and over 42,000 BTC (worth roughly $3.6 billion) committed at launch, 21 Capital would immediately rank third among the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin.

Initially, the corporate valuation would be pegged at the treasury valuation. This represent a solid discount if compared to Strategy, which trades at 2x the value.



21 Capital aims to emulate and even rival the success of Strategy, formerly known as “MicroStrategy”) by accumulating Bitcoin as a primary treasury.

KPI will be similar to the one tracked by Strategy
21 Capital will have some advantage over Strategy:



At the moment 21 Capital is still incorporated in Cantor Equity Partner.
Nice trading over the last sessions:



I have to discover more.

A New Era: Measuring Success in Bitcoin
Twenty One is built to accumulate Bitcoin and grow ownership per share, not just track it.
As part of its launch, Twenty One will introduce two key performance metrics, to reflect its Bitcoin-denominated capital structure and Bitcoin-focused mindset.

• Bitcoin Per Share (BPS): Amount of Bitcoin each fully-diluted share represents, reflecting shareholder ownership in Bitcoin rather than fiat earnings per share
• Bitcoin Return Rate (BRR): Rate at which BPS grows over time, denominating the company's performance in Bitcoin

Strategy has almost the same KPI: the meaning of this is that the key success metrics will be Bitcoin denominated. Once again, the target of the investment is increasing the number of satoshis per shares, offering a positive Bitcoin Yield, something that is already a market practice in Hedge Funds investing in Bitcoin.

Also, the set of instruments by 21 Capital to attain this result will be similar to Strategy's one:

Twenty One and CEP have also entered into subscription agreements with investors to raise, at closing, $585 million of total additional capital consisting of (i) $385 million through convertible senior secured notes and (ii) $200 million through a common equity PIPE financing (the "PIPE Offerings", and together with the Business Combination, the "Proposed Transactions"). The net proceeds from the PIPE Offerings, which will close contemporaneously with the Business Combination, will be used to purchase additional Bitcoin and for general corporate purposes.  

21 Capital will use a combination of debt and equity instruments to finance the buying of bitcoin. The press release covers only the initial offerings, but I have no reason to doubt that the recipe will be repeated frequently, as Strategy has done after their initial purchase.

• Debt: Convertible Senior Secured Notes.
  Convertible Senior Secured Notes are a type of debt instrument, combining features of debt and equity securities.
  
  • Convertible
    Convertible notes can be exchanged (converted) into a specified number of shares of the issuer's common stock, a predetermined price or conversion rate. Investors have the option, to convert their debt into equity, usually when the company's stock price rises above a certain level. When it happens, the capital returned to investors exceeds the one they subscribe to the notes.  Convertibility gives investors potential participation in the company's growth through equity.
  • Senior
    "Senior" means these notes rank higher than subordinated debt or equity in the company's capital structure. If the company faces bankruptcy or liquidation, senior debt holders have a higher priority for repayment compared to junior (subordinated) creditors (Shareholders have an even lower priority). Seniority reduces investor risk, thus reducing the issuer's debt cost.
  • Secured
    Secured notes are backed by collateral or specific assets of the issuing company. In case of default, investors holding secured notes have claims against these pledged assets, which increases their chances of recovering their investment. In this case, the notes are secured by the Bitcoin resulting from the buy with the proceeds. Again, together with Seniority, this reduces the risk of the debt for the investor and the cost for the issuer.
    
    

• Equity: PIPE Offerings
  A PIPE Offering (Private Investment in Public Equity) is a financing arrangement in which institutional investors (accredited investors, banks, or hedge funds) directly purchase shares from a publicly traded company at a negotiated price.
  In essence, these are private placements: the shares are sold privately without initial public offering registration or wide public marketing to raise capital quickly with less regulation than traditional public offerings.
  

I am travelling as it it holiday in Italy.
I will have little or no time in the coming days to write this article, but this is too important not to be tracked. I will write this on my mobile. Trying to organise all the material. This will be a different animal from my "research first",  write later long forms.
Keep the OP under review, as it will be constantly updated.

[Custody]

During the last MIT Bitcoin Expo, sponsored by the Human Rights Foundations, Thadeus Drja, one of the coauthors of the first Bitcoin Lightning Network Whitepaper, gave a compelling talk.

The title of the talk was: "Here Comes the Hornet’s Nest: Can Bitcoin Resist Nation State?", in a clear reference to the penultimate post by Satoshi here on the Bitcointalk forum.




Dryja claims that now, more than ten years later, those “wasps” (governments and financial institutions) are finally coming on Bitcoin, attempting to influence, control or even stifle it.

Dryja formulates a provocative concept, something that can be rebranded as Dryja Theorem:  "Bitcoin is pointless if it operates only with government approval" whose corollary is, netting both propositions: "Bitcoin is valuable to the extent that it functions while illegal.".




The real utility of Bitcoin is its resistance to censorship and institutional control, not simply its scarcity . The famous “21 million Bitcoins” aren't worht anything if you need government approval to operate protocol rules.


From this concept derive some very compelling consequences:

• Custody
  Bitcoins held with third parties (exchanges, ETFs, custodians) “count for nothing”, as governments can easily confiscate, similar to US Executive Order 6102 in 1933, when private gold was seized.
  Dryja likens that historical event to a “proto-rug pull”: the government confiscated private gold, returned dollars at an arbitrary rate, and then quickly devalued the dollar against the confiscated gold.
• Nodes
  Bitcoin only makes sense if the decentralised network nodes are individually managed. Nodes in the cloud or on centralised platforms are irrelevant to freedom and resistance to censorship.

Dryja argues that Bitcoin's real revolutionary feature is not so much its scarcity or economic model as its ability to be used and stored privately and in secret. If this characteristic is compromised (e.g., by storing Bitcoin en masse on regulated ETFs or exchanges), Bitcoin loses all its advantage over gold or fiat money.

Dryja believes that Bitcoin is currently not being used as it was originally intended:

• Empty Mempool: this means that Bitcoin is little used as a real medium of exchange.
• Dominance of custodial services: millions of Bitcoins are held at centralised and regulated intermediaries.
• Little personal interest of users in directly managing their own private keys or full nodes.

Dryja defines this situation as dangerous and negative because it makes Bitcoin vulnerable to state control.


I was deeply shocked by this speech, as it contrasts a lot with what I thought, above all on ETF and the path to acceptance. At the same time, I believe there are valid counterarguments to his very valid thoughts.

What is your take?

I highly recommend listening to the above video, it's only 24 minutes long, before posting a reply!

Links and references:

• MIT Bitcoin Expo
• Thadeus Drja on X
• MIT Bitcoin Club on X

Today I published my monthly roundup of the Italian Board.
The post is this one:

[Meta] Andamento sezione italiana - RECAP MARZO

I usually QUOTE and EDIT the previous month's Message, saving various drafts before posting.

This month, I am an old chap. I didn't realise I pressed EDIT, so I modified last month's post.

When I finally pressed POST, I then deleted last month's review.

I managed to recover a version of last month's post with the LOYCE.CLUB Search Tool for unedited/deleted posts (search per post, per user or per topic) by @LoyceV

@Tryninja provides a similar service.

I want to reinstate the full BBC Code Version.
Is this version archived somewhere?

Maybe some WYSIWYG editor exists for BBCode, but I doubt I can get all the Tables correctly, complete with links.

Definitely, I am not an AI.

[What you don't get applying to get a post merited:]

I have been an active member of this community since 2018.
I think I gave a lot, and of course, I have also received a lot. But over the last weeks it was the first time I have been properly annoyed by one member of this community (Well, there was a previous case, but this is another story).

My telegram handle is not public, but someone was smart enough to contact me over Telegram by finding my handle.

I received a call from an unknown contact.

Then a chat appeared:

	Tanya Called	Tanya became Alvy. Of course he is a smart guy
	The guy was quite pushy	Continued

Now he is blocked, and my Telegram handle was changed to make it less easily guessable.
I understand this is part of the game, but it made me feel unwell, as as I clearly state on my merit thread:

What you don't get applying to get a post merited:

• The certainty of a merit for your submission.
• The timely assessment of the quality of your merit submission.
• The right to discuss my meriting choices. My meriting habits aren't under scrutiny here.

Let alone ringing my phone and harassing me with a merit request.


I will continue to do my best to help this community. I just wanted to share this with this unknown user.

A new blog post appeared on Jameson Lopp

Against Allowing Quantum Recovery of Bitcoin


In this article, Jameson Lopp addresses the potential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin's security. Jameson outlines scenarios where quantum computers could potentially exploit Bitcoin's current cryptographic vulnerabilities to access funds, especially those in addresses with exposed public keys.
Lopp argues that permitting such quantum-based recovery would lead to wealth redistribution favouring entities with early access to quantum technology, undermining Bitcoin's principles of decentralisation and property rights.
He proposes some measures, such as implementing quantum-resistant cryptographic schemes, something that is relatively trivial, but above all, potentially rendering vulnerable funds (such as Patoshi funds), unspendable, to preserve the network's integrity and trust:

In Summary
While the moral quandary of violating any of Bitcoin's inviolable properties can make this a very complex issue to discuss, the game theory and incentives between burning vulnerable coins versus allowing them to be claimed by entities with quantum supremacy are a much simpler issue.
I, for one, am not interested in rewarding quantum capable entities by inflating the circulating money supply just because some people lost their keys long ago and some laggards are not upgrading their bitcoin wallet's security.
We can hope that this scenario never comes to pass, but hope is not a strategy.
The game is afoot!

The position is not new: I first heard of it in his talk at the "Future of Bitcoin Conference 2024," a video that is, by the way, linked in the above blogpost.



I highly recommend viewing this video before reading the blog post.

This proposal leaves me with mixed feelings.

What is your position on this proposal?

Hello,
I am absolutely not a technical person, but I stumbled in this slide from River:





276,000 changes in line of codes seems a very high number to me.

According to ChatGPT:

The Bitcoin protocol consists of several components, mainly the Bitcoin Core client, which is the reference implementation. As of recent updates, Bitcoin Core has around 600,000 to 700,000 lines of code, depending on the version.

This means that in 2024 almost 40% of the code changed.
This seems a lot to me, is this information reliable? How can I verify this?

Like the Meme,
Oh shit, here we go again.


When everything is finally going on the right way, the news about a shitcoin casino makes the round:

SOURCES CONFIRM BYBIT FACING SECURITY INCIDENT: ZACHXBT

Marked dumped  lot, more on the Shitcoins:



1 billion have already left the exchange.



Hacker Already market Sold 200M and then another 200M

Other funds are sliced over many other addresses.


Apparently the Hacker got control of a Cold wallet and hacked the logic to send funds to an address, while displaying another address in the UX.

	ByBit first Statement	Ben Zhou FirstStatement

Update:
Bybit reassures the FUNDS are SAFU.



No news of Bitcoin being lost right now.

Tehter ha annunciato diaver comprato il 5.01% di azioni Juventus sul mercato.

Juventus, entra un nuovo socio: è la stablecoin Tether con il 5,01%

Tether, la società che emette Usdt la stablecoin più usata al mondo, ha acquistato una quota del 5,01% delle azioni con diritto di voto (più qualcuna senza diritto di voto) di Juventus Football Club. Il maggiore azionista di Tether è Giancarlo Devasini, nato a Torino, mentre il ceo è il ligure Paolo Ardoino. Entrambi sono juventini. Il titolo Juventus ha chiuso in rialzo dell’1,6% a 2,531 euro.

Vorrei discutere con voi cosa significhi questo investimento, solo in ottica bitcoin.
Cerchiamo di non scadere, in trivialismo calcistico.
Mi fido di voi, quindi non metto il thread in self-moderated.

I wish the whole forum a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!





As the festive season wraps us in its warmth and cheer, I want to take a moment to wish each of you a Merry Christmas!
May your holiday season be filled with joy, love, and moments that become treasured memories.
This year has been a journey, and it's been incredible to share it with such a vibrant, supportive, and inspiring community.
ETFs, the Halving and the latest ATH, have been an incredible feat for this year.

Thank you all for your contributions, your passion, and the spirit that makes this community so unique.

Time is precious, even more than our beloved Satoshis. I hope you can spend some time in harmony with your loved ones.

Merry Christmas to all the forum members.
Remember to spend time with loved ones.
Time is the ultimate scarce resource, even scarcer than bitcoins.
If you lose a satoshi, you can earn it back.
If you lose a second with a loved one, this is gone forever!

Merry Christmas!

Looking ahead to the New Year, I wish you all nothing but success, good health, and happiness.
May 2025 bring new opportunities, exciting challenges, and countless reasons to celebrate!
I bet this community will thrive in the next year. We stand on the shoulders of giants, but we are alive and kicking!

Here's to a wonderful Christmas and a brilliant year ahead!

Happy Holidays and Felices Fiestas to all our Local communities!

عطلة سعيدة
Selamat Liburan!
Felices Fiestas!
節日快樂
Sretni Praznici!
Schöne Feiertage!
://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=120.0]Kαλές Γιoρτές]://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=120.0]Kαλές Γιoρτές[/url]
חג שמח!
://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=13.0]Joyeuses Fêtes!]://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=13.0]Joyeuses Fêtes![/url]
छुट्टियों की शुभकामनाएं!
Buone Feste!
楽しい休暇をお過ごしください
Prettige Feestdagen!
Happy Holidays!
즐거운 휴일 보내세요!
Maligayang Kapistahan
Wesołych Świąt!
Boas Festas!
Cчacтливoгo Poждecтвa!
Sărbători fericite
God Jul!
Iyi Bayramlar.
چھٹیاں مبارک ہوں
সুখী/শুভ ছুটির দিন

Thanks to every one of you, from theymos down to the last Newbie who just joined, for making this community so incredible!

[1. Definition of a Strategic Reserve]

Lately, the idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) has surfaced in many news reports. The idea that the US could use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve has proven fundamental to propelling the price of bitcoin through the 100K barrier.

In this thread, I will explain what a Strategic Reserve is and how a Bitcoin Reserve is relevant.

1. Definition of a Strategic Reserve
2. The current proposal: B.I.T.C.O.I.N. Act
3. Implementation details: how could it be done
4. Price expectations from a BSR launch
5. Other implementations around the world
6. Opinions and thoughts from other stakeholders
7. Market expectations
8. Links and documents


1. Definition of a Strategic Reserve

A strategic reserve is a stockpile of critical resources set aside by a government, large institution, or other entity for use in exceptional circumstances — such as emergencies, severe supply disruptions, wars, or periods of extreme market volatility.
Unlike regular inventories that cycle through daily usage, strategic reserves are intentionally maintained as a buffer against uncertainty, ensuring stability and security in times of crisis.

Strategic reserves have a few characteristics that are unique and make them different from standard storage:

• Long-Term Storage: strategic reserves are typically stored for extended periods and released only when severe disruptions occur.
• Critical Nature of Resources: The commodities or assets involved are essential to national security, economic stability, or societal well-being.
• Controlled Access: governments or top-level governing bodies usually oversee the maintenance, release, and replenishment of these reserves, guided by well-defined protocols.

For example, the United States currently has two principal strategic reserves.

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): after the oil crisis in the '70s, the US government decided to create a stockpile of oil administered by the US Department of Energy to be used both to protect the US economy against extreme market price fluctuations or as a reserve to provide power to the domestic industrial activities in case of a supply chain problem, or war. Currently, the SPR has more than 390 barrels of oils (the maximum allowed capacity of the reserve is more than 700 million barrels) held in 4 salt caves along the Gulf of Mexico for a valuation of about more than 27 billion USD, with the WTI trading at around 75$ per barrel.
• Gold Reserve : The US has the largest gold reserve in the world, with about 8,133.5 metric tons, totalling almost 700 billion USD in value. Nearly 65% of those reserves are held at the United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox.
  The Federal Government owns the gold. The government has issued "Gold Certificates" to the Federal Reserve Banks for a total amount of $11 billion. These certificate serves The Federal Reserve Banks as a small portion of collateral for the Federal Reserve Notes. The Federal Reserve doesn't own gold.

The US government has many other Strategic Reserves, including natural gas, grains, food, and cheese (it used to have raisins reserves until 2015).


2. The current proposal: B.I.T.C.O.I.N. Act

Cynthia Lummis, a Republican senator from Wyoming, introduced the idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in July. She has advocated for the US government to consider Bitcoin as part of its long-term strategic reserves. In the US Senate, she named the bill B.I.T.C.O.I.N. (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide) Act.

July 31, 2024
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Following her announcement of a historic proposal to supercharge the US dollar and pay down the national debt by establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, today US Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (B.I.T.C.O.I.N.) Act in the US Senate.
"As families across Wyoming struggle to keep up with soaring inflation rates and our national debt reaches new and unprecedented heights, it is time for us to take bold steps to create a brighter future for generations to come by creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve," said Lummis. "Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier."
The B.I.T.C.O.I.N. Act establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve to serve as an additional store of value to bolster America's balance sheet and ensure the transparent management of Bitcoin holdings of the Federal Government. Specifically, the legislation would:

• Establish a decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults operated by the United States Department of Treasury with statutory requirements ensuring the highest level of physical and cybersecurity for the nation's Bitcoin holdings.
• Implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time to acquire a total stake of approximately 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, mirroring the size and scope of gold reserves held by the United States.
• Be paid for by diversifying existing funds within the Federal Reserve System and Treasury Department.
• Affirm self-custody rights of private Bitcoin holders and emphasize that the strategic Bitcoin reserve shall not infringe upon individual financial freedoms.

Source

Her proposals and public statements outline a vision in which the US treats Bitcoin similarly to other strategic assets — such as gold — in its treasury holdings, which is getting an equal share of the world reserves of Bitcoin and gold under the US government control.

After the Trump election, the idea gained traction:



The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would be enacted via a taxpayer-neutral operation, enabling the government to acquire 1 million bitcoins, hodling it for at least 20 years:

• The reserve would be funded by marking the Fed's gold certificates to market value and selling them.
• The government would use the surplus to buy bitcoin without using taxpayer money.
• The Department of Justice would transfer the 208,000 bitcoins from the Silk Road case to the SBR.
• The government will buy 200,000 bitcoins annually for four consecutive years.
• The minimum hodling period would be of 20 years.

The "new" idea concerns repricing the Federal Reserve Certificates at mark-to-market valuations: the certificates were issued at a statutory gold price of $42.22/oz in 1973 and could now be valued at over $2,600/oz.



The gains obtained by this adjustment would enable spending without creating new debt, resulting in a neutral move regarding taxpayers' money.


3. Implementation Details: how could it be done

There are a few ways to transfer bitcoin to the Strategic Reserve:

• Transfer bitcoins seized to the Treasury Department. The Department of Justice owns 208,000 bitcoins seized from the Silk Road trial. The bulk of the SBR could be instated by transferring those coins to the FED.
• Open Market Purchases: the government would buy the bitcoin in the market, presumedly via a partnership with Coinbase. This would be the fastest way of obtaining bitcoins, yet the less efficient. For sure, the slippage (i.e. the price movement caused by the buying pressure) in this would be the highest.
• Strategic Partnership with US Miners: this would be an ingenuous way of doing so. The government could buy the bitcoins mined in the US at an average price. This would benefit the miners with a stable price and the government limiting the market impact. The government could also collect taxes from mining firms directly in BTC and offer these subjects grants to tilt their electricity balance toward carbon neutrality via renewable energy sources or even facilitate ERCOT-style agreements with local grids (ERCOT: "Electric Reliability Council of Texas") agreement between the energy companies and miners to switch off miners during peak energy demand from the electric grids. This perfectly aligns with Donald Trump's vision of the industry.
  
  :
  
  Creating this kind of partnership with the private sector would benefit both the parties involved and the industry as a whole.

4. Price Expectations from a BSR launch

The launch of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would have an enormous impact on market price.
This would happen through different mechanisms:

• Direct market impact: the buys would impact the market, directly affecting sellers. This could be somewhat mitigated through sophisticated buying strategies, as we have seen, but would dramatically change market microstructure anyway.
• Indirect Market Impact: the launch of the first BSR would have very strong signalling toward other sovereign authorities, opening the race for the second BSR announcement. There will be a flywheel spinning, attracting other National Bank toward buying bitcoin, like today, there is a race to buy gold.
• Model-induced Buying: the opening of BSR-induced buying is necessary to propel Bitcoin in the next phase of growth, something that is necessary for all the bullish models around (be it Stock to Flow, Power Law or S-Curve approach) to see their prediction come true. As long as those models are not "negated," the framework is bullish.

Having said that, assessing the precise impact of a BSR is quite tricky, but of course, the effect would be gargantuan.

A couple of predictions:

	Novogratz: 500K	Adam Back: Millions

As a ballpark, we could estimate the US buying impact based on what happened with the ETF launch. If the ETF propelled the price from 40K in January 2024 to 100K in December 2024 with 30 Billion in inflows, then 1 million bitcoins, or 100B inflows from the launch of the US SBR, could propel the market from 100K to 300K. This would account only for the first factor, leaving out the impact from factors 2 (Indirect Buying) and 3 (Model Induced Buying).


5. Other implementations are all around the world

Several countries have either established or are considering the creation of strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Amongst the established Bitcoin Reserves:

• El Salvador: In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender. Since then, the government has accumulated approximately 5,940 bitcoins, valued at around $582 million as of November 2024. They perform both open market purchases (they are buying one bitcoin per day since) and mining operations.
• Bhutan: The Kingdom of Bhutan has been mining Bitcoin using its hydroelectric resources since 2019. More info can be read here: Bhutan Built A Bitcoin Mine On The Site Of Its Failed 'Education City'.
  As of November 2024, Bhutan holds about 12,211 bitcoins worth over $1 billion.
  Contrary to other nations, Bhutan has been quite active in the market, regularly selling the bitcoin they mined.

Some other nations have proposed to instate a domestic SBR:

• Brazil: In November 2024, Eros Biondini, a Brazilian Congressman, proposed a bill to create a Sovereign Strategic Reserve of Bitcoins (RESBit). The proposal involved buying bitcoin up to 5% of Brazil's international reserves. The initiative seeks to reduce the fluctuation of Brazilian real estate in order to protect the economy and develop resilience.
• Poland: Presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen has advocated for the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, along with implementing crypto-friendly regulations to attract investment and increase financial flexibility.
  
• Russia: Anton Tkachev has proposed accumulating cryptocurrencies in the state treasury, viewing digital assets as potential alternatives to the US dollar in international transactions and tackling the sanctions. Russia has been a heavy gold buyer during the last few years.
  Russian Lawmaker Proposes Creating Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Report
• Czech Republic: The Czeck Central Bank is looking to convert 5% of their FX reserves into bitcoin.
  
• United States
  
  • Texas: Texas House introduces bill to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
• 

These make clear that the idea of an SRB is not a pure US-centric invention but rather a sensible proposal that could reshape the future of a diverse range of countries.
Apparently, there is more to come, and it is not difficult to believe what Prince Filip of Serbia, Jan3 Chief Strategy Officer, is reporting:



Other states, according to bitcointreasuries.net, have some stash of bitcoin. Still, these do not constitute Bitcoin Strategic Reserves, as they are only seized bitcoins, often sold or temporarily held by the government, waiting to be sold on the market.


6. Opinions and Thoughts from Other Stakeholders

• J. Powell
  

  	Bitcoin is a competitor with gold, not the US dollar	Fed's Powell says Bitcoin is just like gold, except it's digital

  The declaration that Bitcoin competes with gold as the store of value asset of choice sent the bitcoin price skyrocketing on Wednesday, Dec 6th, when Bitcoin finally broke the USD 100,000 price level for the first time.
  
  
• Micheal Saylor first spoke about a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at the Cantor Conference.
  
  
  
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supported an alternative strategic reserve plan to acquire 5 million bitcoin.
  
  
• Ro Khanna, a Democratic House Representative from California, was also supportive of the creation of a Bitcoin Reserve:

  "We want to make sure that we have the openness to having bitcoin as part of the Federal Reserve and as a reserve asset because of its potential for appreciation and because of its potential to allow America to set the financial standards."

  
  
• Bill Dudley rejected the idea of an SBR as its implementation would be highly impractical and risky.
  According to Dudley, adopting an SBR would only inflate the bitcoin price without a clear benefit to the US, which would be invested in a highly volatile, illiquid asset.
  Dudley also stated that the B.I.T.C.O.I.N. Act also needs a clear exit strategy.
  Source
  
  
• Bitcoin Policy Institute: Digital Gold Evaluating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States
  
  This essay from the Bitcoin Policy Institute is the best review of the BSR concept so far. It's a recommended read.
  
  
• Eric Trump: told that BSR is going to happen as Donald Trump takes office.
  
  
  
• Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) says that "Primary use case for Bitcoin seems to be a store of value aka digital gold."
  
  
  
• Deutsche Bank calls for Bitcoin Inclusion in Federeal Reserve Bank Assets by 2030:
  

  	Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Future of Central Bank Reserves by 2030	Gold's reign, Bitcoin's rise: The future of central bank reserves by 2030

  
  

7. Market Expectation

How probable is the creation of an SBR?
There is a pool on Polymarket that places the probability of Trump going on with the proposal in the first 100 days at 29%:



The probability of this measure lies in the first 100 days, and the President can leverage this as a National Security Matter. This could mean he could issue an Executive Order to immediately instate the SBR as an alternative to the standard approval path through Congress.


8. Links and documents

Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Gold Holdings
United States Bullion Depository
Bitcoin Treasuries


This post is eligible for my project:

Help me translate my best posts in your Local Board

I am a firm believer in the utility of local boards.
I am lucky enough to be able to express myself in at least a couple of languages, but I know this is not the case for everyone.
Many users post only on the local boards for various reasons, such as language or cultural barriers, lack of interest, or other reasons.
I personally know many very good users (mainly from the Italian sections, for obvious reasons) who don't post in the international sections.

All those users are missing a lot of good content posted on the international (English) section or other boards.

If you think you can help here, visit the thread!

I am not particularly young, and I have fond memories of ICQ, but damn, these social links in profile page are useless:



ICQ, AIM, MSN, and YIM have all been dead for a long time.
I challenge you out there, having had a profile on those (I think there is a profile of mine on every one of those, but AIM).

We could change these profiles with the following:

• Telegram
• X
• Keet
• Nostr

In a rough order of importance

The list could even be customisable by the user.

This would significantly improve the chance of getting the right profile for forum users without risking falling for scammers squatting their username handles on other social media.

The fix should be pretty straightforward.
Those fields would be optional, meaning to be filled only by users who would like to have their identities tied to such a social network. Nothing would be compulsory, of course.

Actually the proposal is not new, as many other have aldready requested it:
[proposal] Update Profile > Social Networks ICQ/AIM/MSN/YIM
Add a Telegram contact method.
Can the mod add GetGems Messenger to Forum Profile Information?
Profile information
The profile page should be changed. No one uses ICQ, AIM, MSN or YIM.]
Adding Telegram on the profile page
Suggestion to change the obsolete social media from account info
Why do we still have options for MSN, YIM etc?

I want to search for data in OP_Returns.

I want to look for text in OP_Return data and see in which transaction is a text like "Chancellor" or "fillippone" or any other text in the OP_Return data.

I know some websites were allowing that, like preturnio.com or blockchair.com or others, but for various reasons (offline, API only), I haven't been able to get use of them.


I have a Windows-based Bitcoin node as well (my Raspberry node is currently offline).
Is there any step-by-step guide for this?

Thanks!

Are there limitations for a newbie account to post in archival?
I have a “brand new” account for testing purposes, and I am trying to use it on an archived thread, but it cannot post.
He can post elsewhere, but not in archival, in this thread, specifically.

A controversial long-form appeared on Bitcoin Magazine:


OPINION
BITCOIN HODLERS NEED TO PULL THEIR WEIGHT TOO

A call for a fee for hodling Bitcoin, to balance the fact that the mining security budget is currently paid only by people transacting, not people simply hodling.

It goes on:

From the start, the bitcoin ethos is that those who use the network must work at it. Having ownership or stake confers no special privileges. Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake.

Unfortunately, HODLers are not working. HODLers are expecting that others will be compensating miners so that the HODLers’ stake will maintain its value. In today’s design and perhaps inadvertently, HODLers are not living up to the bitcoin ethos.

This proposal is so wrong in so many ways I don't even know where to start.

I will just post a quote I heard in Milano a long time ago, in a bitcoin meet-up with Saifedean Ammous:

“The most subversive thing you can to with bitcoin is saving” ❤

This proposal is so wrong: it messes with protocol in so many wrong ways:

• Economic incentives
• Privacy Incentives
• Operational Risks
• Changing the protocol hinders the "store of value" proposal, which would be hindered by a change in the monetary properties of bitcoin.

Bitcoin protocols work just fine. Meeting with such a stupid proposal can wreck things in many unforeseen ways.
The sole idea of drying out the "dormant "address sounds like a communist quantitative easing on Bitcoin. We already have an ECB

Clearly, an April's fools on a wrong date.

[The Bitcoin Power Law Theory,]

Everything you wanted to know about The Bitcoin Power Law Theory, but were afraid to ask!
OP post on Bitcointalk.org: The BTC Scaling Law

During the last few weeks, I have been increasingly involved in studying a new model by an astrophysics professor turned neuroscientist, which describes bitcoin according to Power Laws.

Giovanni Santostasi, aka  BTCdragosfera described a model where he explains why Power Laws governing price and other Bitcoin metrics (such as Active addresses and hash rate) are not a random fact but actually the symptoms of something else, namely Bitcoin being "not a common asset but more similar to natural phenomena ruled by universal Power Laws due to recursive, infinite feedback loops fundamental to the system".
Bitcoin is more similar to a city and an organism than a financial asset.

Santostasi first posted his mumblings on Reddit more than 5 years ago:



This post went almost unnoticed: Giovanni set it aside a little bit, focusing on other things, namely his new venture on Neurosciences, but kept working on the idea and finally published the following paper:



The Bitcoin Power Law Theory

If you prefer the video format, hear a video Summary of the Theory:



The material is not very well organized, so I will try to explain the ideas better in this thread.

The Power Law is only the first part of his full BTC model, where it also models a range for bitcoin price and a bubble indicator to detect excessive price movements:



Yes, of course, you have already seen that Rainbow Graph, and actually Trolololo chart is a Power Law chart.

The innovation of Santostasi's article is that Bitcoin is considered a financial system that behaves like a natural system according to well-defined laws. These laws are Power Laws. In this sense, the article is not a "model" about Bitcoin but a coherent "Bitcoin theory."

According to Santostasi:

In modern science, the term "theory" refers to scientific theories, a well-confirmed type of explanation of nature, made in a way consistent with the scientific method, and fulfilling the criteria required by modern science. Such theories are described in such a way that scientific tests should be able to provide empirical support for it, or empirical contradiction ("falsify") of it. Scientific theories are the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge,[1] in contrast to more common uses of the word "theory" that imply that something is unproven or speculative (which in formal terms is better characterized by the word hypothesis).[2]
(This is from Wikipedia - Ed.)

<...>
It is a full theory because it explains the entire behaviour of Bitcoin. It has several points and explains the interaction of all the on-chain parameters,

it even explains why the bubble exists and why we have a bottom. He makes predictions that make the theory falsifiable.

In science, a model is a representation of an idea, an object or even a process or a system that is used to describe and explain phenomena that cannot be experienced directly. Models are central to what scientists do, both in their research as well as when communicating their explanations.

A model is very similar to a hypothesis, so it is an initial mathematical formula or algorithm to try to replicate some of the behaviour of the subject studied.

A theory is the ultimate way to understand a phenomenon: it is complete in the sense that it tries to explain all the observed behaviour.
In this case, how the on-chain parameters work, how the adoption is growing (via a virus-like mechanism), and how the adoption affects the price (via Metcalfe law).


How the price brings in more miners, how the hash rate is related to price, how the Difficulty Adjustment kicks in and creates an inhibitory loop that creates stability for the system, and so on and on

People do not comprehend it yet: it tells us everything we need to know about Bitcoin, and there is a corollary that even explains the bubbles and their relevance. It can be improved and made better, but it is coherent and complete: it is really a big deal.

(I made some little readjustments to make the sentences more readable)

Introduction: What is a Power Law?

According to Wikipedia:

In statistics, a Power Law is a functional relationship between two quantities, where a relative change in one quantity results in a relative change in the other quantity proportional to a power of the change, independent of the initial size of those quantities: one quantity varies as a power of another.

Power Laws can be written in the following form:

Y=10^B*(x+S)^A

or:

log(y)=A*log(x+S)+B

A lot of natural, sociological, mathematical, physical, and psychological phenomena follow Power Laws.

The Power Law has a few important features.

• Scale invariance: Power Laws remain valid when the involved variables change the order of magnitude.
• Lack of well-defined average value: Power Laws have a median but lack a mean value.
• Universality: Power Laws with the same exponent produce similar dynamics.

The first property is that a Power Law drawn in a log-log chart, or a chart where both axes are on a logarithmic scale, is a straight line with slope A, B intercept, and S as a shift parameter.

Please note that a straight line in a log-log plot is necessary, but there is insufficient evidence for Power Laws. Determining a Power Law existence only because there is a straight line fitted in a log-log chart is an unsatisfactory approach to the statistical method.

	bitcoin price plotted against time	A graph you might have already seen Log bitcoin price, plotted against time
	Now both axis are Log, and a linear relationship appears	The previous graph slightly reworked

Please note that those 4 graphs represent the exact same data. The blue line is the same as the red one.
The only difference is visual, and this is best captured by the red line in the log-log chart, which appears to describe the Bitcoin prices.
In reality, the explanatory power is the same in all the graphs, but the linear scale "undervalues" the errors in the first steps of the graph and "overvalues" the errors in the last steps, as the prices have increased four orders of magnitude.

The log-log chart evenly "decompresses" the chart's price and time dimension, and the best-fit function appears to be a straight line.

I made those graphs myself to check the reality of the claimed properties of the log-log chart.

If you want to understand better what Power laws are and why they are so ubiquitous in science, please have a look at the following links:

	Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations	Why do Power Laws Work so Widely? | Episode 2207 | Closer To Truth

Giovanni Santostasi already published an article answering a few questions and correcting misconceptions about PLT (Power Law Theory):

Common Misconceptions and Fallacies Regarding the Bitcoin Theory of Bitcoin

This is a rendition of the "bitcoin clock" using the Power Laws: the beautiful spiral well represents the soundness of the theory.





Bitcoin Price is not the only variable that has a governing Power Law; addresses and hash rate are also governed by similar laws.



This adds beauty to the model, as we can find a "cross" relationship.
 
There is a beautiful YouTube video about the relationship between these quantities:



Addresses and Prices are tied via a Power Law with something resembling the Metcalfe Law.
HashPower and Price are linked via a Power Law that strongly supports price via Mining Hardware cost.


The major point of this model is that scarcity is not considered anywhere in the model. The PLT doesn't consider S2F relevant for price determination.
Of course, the author soon entered into a disagreement with PlanB:



In this article Giovanni explain why Scarcity doesn't play a role in price determination:

Scarcity is not what Drives Bitcoin Price

<...>
Here 2 models, the power law model that has zero assumption on scarcity, just based on the observation the price is going up in a predictable manner. Scarcity it is not part of the model at all. The other, S2F where scarcity is the main driver, in fact, it assumes scarcity increases with time. The power law (with no assumption on scarcity) leads to “hurry up and get some BTC now”. As you can see S2F instead says you can get in at any time and still make the same amount of gains, no matter if you joined 10 year ago (for the same amount of 4 years HODLING time) or 10 years from now (again for the same HODLING time). Both investors will make a 10x return over this time. While you notice for the Power Law model it is important to join as soon as possible. So do you see how people use of the scarcity argument leads to illogical conclusions that are not supported by facts?

If you want to deep dive in this, there is a video here:
Why BTC stock-to-flow model based on scarcity is worse than wrong, it is complete nonsense.


Santostasi is not done yet. Firstly he's trying to organise the knowledge scattered over a few articles and X posts.
The first output will be a scientific paper, possibly peer-reviewed, and a more educational book detailing his theory.


Resources:

• Giovanni Santostasi Twitter Account
• The Bitcoin Power Law Theory
• YOUTUBE: The Bitcoin Power Law Theory
• Wikipedia: Power Law
• The Physics of Bitcoin
• Common Misconceptions and Fallacies Regarding the Bitcoin Theory of Bitcoin
• BTC Trolololo model revisited (still valid today) is really a Power Law in disguise
• Bitcoin long term power law Chart
• Bitcoin long term power law Chart - GLASSNODE
• Power-law price models of bitcoin
• Bitcoin’s power-law really debunked?
• The science behind $1,000,000 bitcoin with Giovanni Santostasi
• Episode 45 with Giovani. Power Laws

Il prossimo 11 maggio, si terrà a Brescia la prima conferenza BITCOIN ONLY in Italia.

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Il panel di speakers è ancora in fase di definizione, ma si annuncia di assoluto rilievo, soprattutto per una conferenza in Italia.



Il costo dei biglietti non è esagerato, si potrebbe tranquillamente decidere di andare.

Se vedete un vecchietto aggirarsi con le mani dietro la schiena, potreste provare a salutarmi con una frase in codice.

Aggiornerò il thread con maggiori dettagli, quando saranno disponibili.