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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1838686.0

PS, I am still buying AQUA, PM me.

  These are my Trend Analysis of Bitcoin & Altcoins,and I will try to update everyday.
  THX

Bitcoin:

Orders of bidding and asking are in big volume, and amount of price variation is small. Moving sideways too long leads Bitcoin price to decline. And it’s bad for the bulls to move sideways for a long period. Firstly, buyers will become fewer during this sideways. Secondly, the covers and the profit-takings will sell in great amounts. Finally, new mined coins will not become less at the same time.

High volume is a requirement of bull market. Bitcoin wouldn’t go up without heavy volume. The pressure is not high at $660, but very high at $830.

I call upon us not to consume in Bitcoin, although this seems to be a paradox. This is because those shops will not hold Bitcoin that accept Bitcoin with the help of Bitpay, Coinbase and Bifubao. They may convert all their Bitcoin into legal tender. With a view to so low turnover rate, those wave of selling will crash the Bitcoin market.

So tough sideways!

However, good news may break out at some time and lead price skyrocket suddenly. Thus going short just for current pretty profits is essentially irrational.
 
Why do we participate in Bitcoin market? Because the fundamental value of Bitcoin from its principle has not yet been achieved.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 4.58, down 1%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.03, down 0.1%.

Litecoin price drops down from a cliff this afternoon. No speculation fund still stay in the market, so could you big investors stop your toss and torn? The price will go down and down under your torn.

Ripple has come to death, and it drops down rapidly in a low volume.

DOGE and Darkcoin are still struggling at low level.

It’s a surprise that altcoins bear market comes at this time. I thought April was its worst time.

If Bitcoin goes on moving sideways for a period, altcoins bear market will last for some time and altcoins price will go down exponentially.

Scrypt mining machine factories, with some brave exceptions, resist cutting their prices. Machines that overstock will go into the trash just like what has happened in the garment industry. Whoever sell them out and take back principal now can have the opportunity to make next generation Scrypt machines infuture. Those fail to do so will lose all while Litecoin price goes down and even new chips will go into the trash.

No need to talk about the bottom of bear market. I just say I will buy LTC at $5, and if Bitcoin move sideways for 3 months, is there anybody who can tell me where the bottom is?

In general holding Bitcoin is better than mining Bitcoin. Mining machine makers hold biotin too. Why not miners?

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/analyse/trendanalysis

Bitcoin:

I am pessimistic about Bitcoin trend in mid period.

But my pessimism is not on trend aptitude but time. It’s no use only having a strong support. The key is that incremental fund could not resist the pressure of new mining pools, so it’s hard to successively rise.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 4.63, down 8%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.03, down 6.8%.

Driven by Litecoin, altcoins go down fully. Altcoin Indices now are only half of those 3 months ago.

Today a force is played that big investors crash LTC market, push price high and then sell LTC to make money. No new incremental fund is added to market, and none will buy high, so it’s not a good idea to toss and turn restlessly.

Don’t ask me why I forecast LTC will go down to $5, and I have foreseen it wouldl rise to $160. I just say these words from my brains. However, the key is just to dare to think, and only this can you make money. Those buy LTC at $16 are locked in, and so are those buy at $8. But I will buy at $5, so I am not locked in now.

None of LTC big investors ask me for advice, and they are just playing their own games. As an outsider, I am glad to watch.

I have placed my buying orders on IFC at 0.00008, and I will keep my promise to buy a billion IFC.

Hardbit HB01 Bitcoin Hardware Wallet

    Hardbit Bitcoin hardware wallet is a good choice for mid-high amount Bitcoin holder as a safety storage and payment solution.

    The latest version of HB01 enables backup file importation. This means 1 Hardbit can manage multiple wallets even from different holders.

Physically ensures safety

    No matter how fancy software wallets are, they can't avoid the threat of hackers from internet. If not computer expert, playing with paper wallet,brain wallet is risky of losing Bitcoin by bad-playing.

    Hardbit thoroughly shields your Bitcoins from internet thanks to independant hardware and QR-code only commincation. Hackers have no way to deal with you Bitcoins. It physically ensures Bitcoin safety.

Multiple protections

    Hardbit provides backup function, so that even if the hardware wallet is broken or lost, you Bitcoins are still safe.

    Hardbit provide password portection, so that even your hardware wallet is lost, your Bitcoins won't be stolen.

Single task device, safe and stable

    Most Bitcoiners install Bitcoin wallets in daily-used computers or smartphones. which tends to crash because of high working load. Non-experts will have very high risk of losing their Bitcoin while fixing these crashes.

    Hardbit only has one task-- Bitcoin wallet, so it's working load is very light, this guarantees the stability and therefore safety.

Dedicated product, portable and econormical

    Many Bitcoiners buy a computer that act as a hardware wallet. This do improves safety, but the investment is not small and it's not portable because of big size. If an emergent transaction is needed, they have to drive home.

    Hardbit is a hardware specially designed for Bitcoin wallet, it rules out a lot of computer hardwares that are not useful for Bitcoin, so it is small and price-friendly. It can be carried all the time, and transaction can be done at anytime.

Handy operations, more potentials

    A Bitcoin transaction operated on Hardbit only needs 3 steps: scan the payment request, input password, show your transaction QR to receiver. This is not complex compared to software wallets on smartphone, and is more convienent compared to software wallets on computers.

   Because Hardbit can work offline, so it can act like bank cards for payment in shops. It enables immediate confirmation because double spending is avoided by changing the transaction broadcaster  from payer to payee.


http://www.hardbit.cn/index.php/product

GMT20140704 9:10 Trend Analysis of Democurrency

 

Bitcoin:

 

Bitcoin goes on moving sideways.

 

It seems that wave theory is not useful. It’s better not to utterly depend on this technical analysis.

 

It has moved sideways for 4 days. And it will go on moving sideways for 3 days.

 

The trading volume becomes slight. But orders of bidding and asking are large. So trend aptitude will be small. Let’s waiting for Big investors’ actions.

 

These days are the key and a mile stone to trend market in future.

 

If it goes down, a shape of double head will be formed. It will move sideways for at least one month at $580-$660. And it is difficult to confirm when it can go up to above $700.

 

If it goes on rising, it will move as what I have said.

 

Now Bitcoin is like the early period of starting a atomic bomb. It will expose if there is a single more nuclear fission leading to more fissions. But It will have to restart if without that single fission.

 

History is dependent to the minority. So is Bitcoin trend.

 

Altcoin:

 

Altcoin Index 1 is 5.03, up 0.5%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.18, up 1.5%.

 

LTC still goes down. But LTC market cap is $200 million, and it’s 1.5 time of that of all other altcoins. New coins valued $250,000 every day are mined so it will go down. My anticipation is $5.

 

DOGE and Darkcoin rebound today.

 

XPM has increased greatly in these days. This is a counter reaction to the Doge dive because XPM will never be attacked by script miners. It’s trading volume is only $50000, and some body can easily push price up.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/1006-gmt20140704-9-10-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

It has moved sideways for 3 days. According to wave theory Bitcoin price will go up to $700, then decline to $660.

There are 60 bid in the FBI Bitcoin auction. If every bid order has 3000 coins, then the volume of buying orders is 180,000 coins. This volume could support new mining pool production in 50 days. So Bitcoin price can go up to $830, and a platform will be formed there.

I hope that new incremental fund come after price going up to $830.

The wallet number of Bitcoin in blockchain.info is issued today, and it has been increasing evenly since last December and now it is 2,000,000. But Bitcoin price still does not rise. Quantity will finally turn into quality. When user wallet number increases to a critical value, then Bitcoin is not enough to be divided, and price will rise.

Divide 13,000,000 by 2,000,000, and you get 6.5. So the average Bitcoin per wallet is 6.5 coins, worth $4000. The average value per wallet is also $4000 before September in last year. The average Bitcoin per wallet is 10 coins in this May, worth $4000. But the average value per wallet is $18300 in last later September. So the average value per wallet can evaluate the Bitcoin market trend. Now it is lowest, so it can rise continuously.

Please keep in mind that although Bitcoin price had risen 10 times since April in last year, the daily trading volume did not increase. The fact that Bitcoin users are becoming more and trading volume is not rising proves two things. The bad one is that the using of Bitcoin is not increasing with the number of Bitcoin-accepted shops. The other is that new users buy and hold Bitcoin and this is beneficial to Bitcoin trend.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 5, down 1.3%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.13, up 1.6%.

LTC rebounds in last night but declines then. Anyone who has 1,000,000 LTC contact me and I have a good idea to save it.

In my opinion LTC will go down to $5, and I will notify you if Big investors follow me.

DOGE and Darkcoin will dive quickly. They have different reasons. DOGE is dangerous because LTC mining machines have been invented and somebody has major computing power. But Darkcoin market hype has come to an end and Darkcoin returns to its original value.

PPC has increased greatly in these days. There is no opportunity because the locked chips in PPC are very heavy. If you want to buy a unique coin, it will be PMC, because its algorithm is different to HASH. Its price has increased by 20% in these days.

I will not recommend buying altcoins before Bitcoin creating a new high.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/998-gmt20140703-12-23-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

It has moved sideways for 3 days. According to wave theory Bitcoin price will go up to $700, then decline to $660.

There are 60 bid in the FBI Bitcoin auction. If every bid order has 3000 coins, then the volume of buying orders is 180,000 coins. This volume could support new mining pool production in 50 days. So Bitcoin price can go up to $830, and a platform will be formed there.

I hope that new incremental fund come after price going up to $830.

The wallet number of Bitcoin in blockchain.info is issued today, and it has been increasing evenly since last December and now it is 2,000,000. But Bitcoin price still does not rise. Quantity will finally turn into quality. When user wallet number increases to a critical value, then Bitcoin is not enough to be divided, and price will rise.

Divide 13,000,000 by 2,000,000, and you get 6.5. So the average Bitcoin per wallet is 6.5 coins, worth $4000. The average value per wallet is also $4000 before September in last year. The average Bitcoin per wallet is 10 coins in this May, worth $4000. But the average value per wallet is $18300 in last later September. So the average value per wallet can evaluate the Bitcoin market trend. Now it is lowest, so it can rise continuously.

Please keep in mind that although Bitcoin price had risen 10 times since April in last year, the daily trading volume did not increase. The fact that Bitcoin users are becoming more and trading volume is not rising proves two things. The bad one is that the using of Bitcoin is not increasing with the number of Bitcoin-accepted shops. The other is that new users buy and hold Bitcoin and this is beneficial to Bitcoin trend.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 5, down 1.3%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.13, up 1.6%.

LTC rebounds in last night but declines then. Anyone who has 1,000,000 LTC contact me and I have a good idea to save it.

In my opinion LTC will go down to $5, and I will notify you if Big investors follow me.

DOGE and Darkcoin will dive quickly. They have different reasons. DOGE is dangerous because LTC mining machines have been invented and somebody has major computing power. But Darkcoin market hype has come to an end and Darkcoin returns to its original value.

PPC has increased greatly in these days. There is no opportunity because the locked chips in PPC are very heavy. If you want to buy a unique coin, it will be PMC, because its algorithm is different to HASH. Its price has increased by 20% in these days.

I will not recommend buying altcoins before Bitcoin creating a new high.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/998-gmt20140703-12-23-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

 

Market makers make wash trades and “pump and dump” in this afternoon in Chinese market. Market trend in foreign market is stronger than in Chinese market, but it is in a low trade volume. This demonstrates that trades in Chinese market are wash trades. The rising trend is successive and not once buying out of the sell orders. It’s clear that this is a motion of market makers, not of big investors. A frog!

 

It’s said in Sohu News that FBI Bitcoin auction has ended in this morning. Bitcoin is auctioned in 9 quantities, 3000 coins per quantity. This is a perfect idea. It lowers the barrier of bid, and also ensures high transaction price. I guess that the transaction price in every round becomes higher and higher, and final transaction price is higher than market price then. Although the outcome has not be published, insiders may have already learnt, including Dong Zhao. Thus market makers lead this price jumping to stop auction failers buying.

 

I was a little pessimistic yesterday. The Bitcoin trend could be like what I said in the day before yesterday. It will move sideways for a week at $650-$700, one month at $800, one month at $1100, and then create a new high.

 

Altcoin:

 

Altcoin Index 1 is 5.6, down 5.1%, to a new low point. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.32, down 3.8%.

 

LTC dived yesterday, but goes up again today. Darkcoin is dead. Other altcoins rebound a bit. They include some coins with strong rebound, but I will not commend any until Bitcoin reach a new high.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/986-gmt20140630-12-00-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

 

Wave of buying is not strong and market trend starts going down.

 

By such strength of buyers, consolidation would take a long time at this platform. And it’s possible to break a dip.

 

It’s the hardest time for Bitcoin trend now, and it can be called as “being stuck”, which means it would be there, and not go up or down. Every day Bitcoin valued $2,500,000 is produced and this should be supported by corresponding fund. Next halving production will happen in 2017 and it’s too long to wait. Those involved in Bitcoin have involved. Where would new buyers come from? It’s hard to say.

Keep be patient before that.

 

Take a note that it’s “being stuck” and not “going down”. It’s difficult to go down.

 

Altcoin:

 

Altcoin Index 1 is 5.9, down 1.3%,a new low point. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.41, down 1.9%.

 

Altcoins are still going down weakly in general.

 

But it is normal that altcoins go weakly when Bitcoin is so short for fund.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/981-gmt20140629-14-00-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

There is a strong support at the price $580. But wave of buying is not geilivable. The price changes around at $600 .

The FBI Bitcoin auction will come in 1 days later. And the price will jump and rise after that. If there is a wave of buying in a volume of 28000 coins, the price will go up to $660.

Auction is just a battle of two parties. No matter with others. None wanna buy Bitcoin and resell Bitcoin then. Bidders in the auction are those who really hope to buy and hold Bitcoin, because they expect to buy Bitcoin at a low price there, and they don’t hope push price high when they buy at market. They just buy Bitcoin secretly and at a very low profile. They will be glad to buy at current market price and not ask for a lower price.
 
Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 5.99, down 2%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.38, up 0.5%.

LTC is going down greatly, PPC goes down to the floor, other altcoins still change strongly.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

Bitcoin:

Today there is a wave of selling, and that may be big investors. The trade is so anemic that a big investor can decide the Bitcoin trend.

There is a strong support at the price $580. The price will go up to $630 later.

The FBI Bitcoin auction will come in 2 days later. In my opinion the auction price will be higher than market price then, and the price will jump and rise after that.

I don’t think FBI Bitcoin is auctioned at a tight time. It’s better to sell Bitcoin when FBI just attained Bitcoin or when it rise to a high point. It isn’t a good deal at this time.
 
Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.11, down 0.3%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.37, down 1%.

DOGE is going down greatly, and it is really a bad news.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin falls down, and Litecoin rises greatly.

Litecoin rises with difficulty, and it has something to do with the leveraged deals.

For such deals investors will start to keep away from Litecoin, only left with speculators to pay for miners.

No incremental fund enters Bitcoin market so the price is hard to rise. Currently it will decline slightly. And it will moves sideways for a period. We should be patient with these institutions.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.45, up 4.5%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.68, up 3.5%.

Darkcoin increases greatly.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/942-gmt20140619-15-09-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin price moves sideways today and its trading volume is slight.

It seems to be peaceful in the market, but both buyers and sellers deeply wrestle with each other. Wave of buying and wave of selling have both increased by 4000.

This proves that the market is mature. Those participating in short-term trading become insignificant.

Viewed from the market trend in these days, the amplitude in Huobi is least, and Huobi has become the largest trading center in deed.

Bitcoin trades in a narrow range for the sharp increase of buyers and sellers. Entering market behavior of big investors will break the deadlock. We still require heroes in such a small market.

Altcoin:

Altcoins are still falling down.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

Bitcoin:

The Bitcoin price runs into headwinds at $580, and it declines then. It will fluctuate from $ 460 to $ 610. After that it will rise again.
 
The Bitcoin auction of FBI will be held at this 27th, it has not ended and there is 10 days until the end, so the price will move sideways in a short time and does not create a new high. But its price will jump and rise after that.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.28,down 3.6%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.55, down 2.6%.

Litecoin is in a bear market. Now LTC/BTC is 0.01642. If Bitcoin moves sideways for10 days, Litecoin will fall down for 10 days. In my view the beat opportunity to buy Litecoin is when LTC/BTC is 0.01.

There is no news on other Altcoins.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/analyse/trendanalysis/923-2014-6-17-12

Bitcoin:

In the morning Bitcoin rebounds driven by foreign market.

Bitcoin price was strong at $580 approximately.

The Bitcoin auction of FBI has not ended and there is 10 days until the end, so the price will move sideways in a short time.

Altcoin:

Altcoins with middle market cap rebounds actively today.

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/analyse/trendanalysis/916-20140616-11-30

Bitcoin:

$580 is the bottom. The reasons are as follows:
1. The price has moved sideways at $580 in this round.
2. The left shoulder is at $580, and there are few profit taking there.

The price falls greatly at foreign market and its shape is hard to be analyzed.

When the price falls, lots of people scramble to sell their coins. In the end there is few wave of selling. Most of this wave of selling are coin hoarding miners. The miners can be divided into two: the first are those sell coins when they have mined them, and these are a stable selling pressure. The second are those hoard coins, and they will cause price dive. They are the same from the total revenue point of view.

There are two bad news recently. One is that the computing power in GHASH mining pool has reached over 50%. The other is the Bitcoin auction by FBI.

The effect of GHASH is the key factor in such delicate balance circumstance. It is not a big deed, and just be used. It’s OK when Bitcoin price falls.

The effect of FBI will help guide the price. The auction price will be not necessarily below the market price. What will the price be when all 28000 coins over current market price are bought. If the price does not fall, the price will be lower than market price. Now the market price fell, and the auction price will be higher than market price. Another effect is that a few of wave of buying now stop buying in the open market, and they are waiting for Bitcoin auction. So few wave of buying in the market will cause Bitcoin price down. When auction has ended and more fund returned to market, Bitcoin will surge again.

Bitcoin:

My trend analysis yesterday is too optimistic. Wave of selling are initiative today, and Bitcoin price creates a new low.

The order pressure over $630 is big and difficult to be overcomed in a short time. It may go on falling after rebounding to $630. The strong support level is at $580.

You have to admire technical analysis theory. No matter how news is, technical shape is effective.

Now it is forming a big head and shoulders pattern. The left shoulder is the behavior of MT in February and March, the head is the behavior of PBC, and the right shoulder is this decline.

The trend of rising in long period is a commonplace, and its target is $500000.

The trend of rising in mid period is exact. In my opinion it’s a big trend, even may be the biggest trend in Bitcoin history. It may rise over 20 times to $10000. Then the market cap of Bitcoin is over thousand million dollars. The rising 50 times from $10000 to $500000 maybe take 3-5 years. When the market cap of Bitcoin become over thousand million dollars, the historical limitations of Bitcoin will be exposed, and it will move sideways or turn into a bear market for 1-2 years especially under global governments’ suppressing.

In a short time the wave of buying is insufficient. The BTC auction of FBI is a bad new currently. And the bad news of MT is not over. The key is little good news on Bitcoin could attract wave of buying entering the market. The only way is to reach a new high for Bitcoin. What is it before that? Little fund enters the market, and Bitcoin rises slowly. Then whipsaw appears at the price of $660, $ 830, $1160, and this will last for 3 months.

I will not make profit from the difference in the rising trend. Please take a note. If a big investor enters the market, its price will jump and rise. Its market cap is too small so this pricejumping possibility is high.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.61. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.69. Today a new altcoins named Neutrinocoin birthed and its price jumped and rose. Anyone wanna be a market maker?

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/912-gmt20140614-11-07-trend-analysis-of-democurrency

Bitcoin:

I come to a clear conclusion on moving sideways that the price will fall down to 3500.

The selling pressure is only the new mining pools when the trading volume is extremely slight. Its price rises by 50%, and the market cap of new mining pools rises at the same rate. When the price is 2700, it rises; when it is 4000, it begins to fall. So the incremental fund everyday could afford a market cap of new pools ranging from 2700 to 4000. This exact number is hard to be affirmed, but I assume it is 3500.

The price falls, then the market cap of new pools becomes small, and the price will be stable. After that it will rise again.

This round trend is likely to last round. It rises slowly before creating a new high. After creating a new high, a lot of money out there on the sidelines enter the market, and its price will surge.

Its trend is so likely to that of bamboo.


Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.31. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.44. There are some wrong numbers on the coinmarketcap.org, so there is no need to calculate their change.

Generally altcoins fall down a little.

DOGE builds a beautiful bottom shape. just because that there are more trading centers, shops, wallets support DOGE. But there is a big compact district above 0.0003 and 0.0004, coupled with the threat of the LTC mining machine, so I am down on it. In the premise of the threat of mining machines, it’s difficult to be hyped for those coins with rapid declining computing power. If a psycho delete one month transaction records, the coin would be dead.

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