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Blockexplorer shows about 5000 seconds left until next difficulty.
Think it will be closer to 1.5M or 1.9M ? My guess is 1.9M
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I'd like to see an App that uses bluetooth or something on a phone that will allow you to broadcast an ID.
The ID isn't really human readable, but somehow it correlates via encryption to your BitWallet ID. For it to be decrypted, the same app needs to be operational on another phone, or PC, or Point of Sale system.
You can also put a username of some kind if you want, on the ID, so it shows 'Grocery Store X' or 'MyNameHere', aliasing it.
Then using the secure IDs, you can initiate a bitcoin exchange of whatever value you like. It could show up as a 'request' from the grocery store, which you verify and approve. Or it could be a straight-payment, as with a bet or donation or loan or other payment peer to peer.
Since the address used would be your 'newest' address, the recipient of the coins couldn't easily look up your net worth, so there is some privacy there on both sides.
Thoughts? Is it overcomplicated? Could something like this be created as a payment method for smartphones?
It seems that at some point we'll need to get our bitwallets onto our smartphones, or have some kind of service that keeps our bitwallets secure, and lets us transfer bitcoins from anywhere in the world. I.E. like a bank card.
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So there is a way to calculate a theoretical limit of a given operation, given diminishing returns.
Right now hashing power is way too high, the next retarget is basically 8 days away (check out block explorer's eta function).
Retargets have been 50% for the last few bits.
We are at the 131,000ish block level right now. 210k - 131k = 79k. So 79k blocks to complete before only 25 btc's are rewarded instead of 50btc's.
79k blocks / 2016 = 39 difficulty increases.
Assume a single miner is rocking 1.0Ghash, and thus generating 1 BTC per day.
They will generate 14 coins over 14 days, and then there will be a retarget adding 50% difficulty. This will repeat every 2016 blocks until we hit the 210000th block, at which point generation is halved, so that will be my end-time.
So the limit, as x approaches 39, of 14 +14*(2/3)+14*(2/3)^2 +...+14*(2/3)^39 can be represented by a limit of some kind (math gurus jump in here):
I just used excel and calculated out the sums by dragging a simple formula for the coins per day, and each subsequent cell was 2/3 of the previous value.
I basically got 35 coins, maximum, for each 1.0Ghash by the 39th difficulty increase, assuming it actually does take 14 days per difficulty. If it takes less than 14 days, then obviously each 1.0Ghash is worth less than 35 bitcoins.
For me, at 330mhash, I mine 0.33 coins per day (4.6 coins in a 14 day difficulty right now). My maximum output is therefore ~11.5 coins, theoretically, over the next 39 difficulties. But really, once I get to the 6th difficulty, I'll have already created ~11 coins. So I will drop out in 6 difficulty increases, as I don't see much point in spending another 33 difficulties to get 1 coin.
So for those of you investing in mining rigs. I'd take a look at these #'s.
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Is that even reasonable?
But let's assume it is.
Let's assume a new miner has enough hashing power to bust out 1 BTC per day given the current 850K difficulty
Also assume it takes 14 days to get to the next difficulty level, and then 14 more days after that to hit the next one, and the next (3 difficulties, 42 days of mining).
Difficulty 1 (1st 14 days)
# Coins/Day: 1
# Days: 14
# Coins: 14
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Difficulty 2 (2nd 14 days, I'll use a 50% increase in difficulty, resulting in 1/3rd less coins per day)
# Coins/Day : .66
# Days: 14
# Coins: 9.3
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Difficulty 3 (3rd 14 days, again same increase)
# Coins/day: .44
# Days: 14
# Coins: 6.22
Total coins for 42 days: 29.55 coins
Current value per coin ~$20.
So... in 42 days, a reasonable expectation is $600 in the next 42 days, provided you are currently putting out 1.0GHash and get coins at a rate of 1/day.
Today is June 15, so 42 days from now is July 27th.
Does that sound right? If so, at most I'd want to put $600 in, right now, to break even in 1 months time?
Edit: 42 days, lol, not 32.
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