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1  Economy / Speculation / Calling the bottoms and all kind of things :) on: December 22, 2017, 03:26:41 PM
If it bounces on $8800 we are still in the bubble run, which will pop sooner or later.

If it stabilizes on $6000, we would be on a ramp up for a second bigger bubble soon, invalidating the next scenario...

Long run trend is at $2000, methinks we will get there down slowly throughout 2018 until early or mid 2019.
Then we will be shooting for the big million in 2020.

It will get real scary mid 2018 when miners will start going out of business with very high difficulty. Lightning will still not be ready to save the day in 2018. There will be bugs. Delays. The usual.

But in 2020, you will see governmental and sovereign mining pools, because 2019-2020 sounds about the right timeline for fiat and fiatchains to go tits up, and for Lightning to be ready, tested and deployed.

But 2020 will be even more scary, fiat going tits up won't be pretty.

Leaving that here for the record Tongue

2  Economy / Speculation / Boring times ahead: $450 until end of June on: May 24, 2016, 09:28:42 AM
Bunch of lines converging there, flat and boring June is coming.

Then, only then, will it be time for the fireworks  Grin


3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Cryptsy historical hot wallet balance on: January 13, 2016, 07:44:59 AM
Based on taint analysis, here is a chart showing the historical balance of Cryptsy's hot wallet.

This summarizes, by day, the deposits, withdrawals and balance of more than 390,000 addresses that could be tied to Cryptsy's hot wallet (raw data: http://pastebin.com/hMpuzHbt).
Note that the taint analysis is still being refined at the moment, more addresses will likely be found.

4  Bitcoin / Mining / getrawmempool alternative for mining pools on: January 12, 2016, 11:34:37 AM
IIRC there is some faster getrawmempool network/alternative used by mining pools for faster transaction propagation, but I cannot remember its name... :/

Anyone could point me to it? and is it still in active/production use? Thanks!
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / 21 use of bitcoin for machine-to-machine micro-payments on: September 22, 2015, 10:28:27 AM
http://cointelegraph.com/news/115314/21-inc-unveils-bitcoin-optimized-business-computer

Quote
“We think payment in BTC is not as big an improvement at the present time over standard ways to purchase macroscopic physical goods. Offline currencies are fairly well adapted for that use case. We believe that where bitcoin really shines is for micropayments, as a medium of exchange for digital goods and services.”

Hopefully they are planning ways to handle micro-payments off-the-blockchain, in batches or in their own alt-coins.

I know an application that would fill a whole day of 1MB blocks on its own in just a few hours if it was using micro-payments with 1 tx per translated sentence... and it is not a large application by any stretch of the imagination, more like a tool/utility. For widespread use, even 1 GB blocks would not be enough, especially not if you understand "machines" as in "internet of things".

Machine to machine micro-payments is an interesting project, but if it is to scale, it probably needs something "more decentralized" than bitcoin, ie. that does not rely on a single, world-wide blockchain.

I suspect that they are addressing the wrong problem: a bitcoin client is a simple lightweight affair, especially with cloud-based APIs & services, what's limiting machine to machine is not the ability to discover services, issue or request payments.
6  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Scaling beyond block size: allow chain forks! on: September 10, 2015, 06:44:56 AM
Block size increase in itself is not going to increase the number of TPS because of the orphan risk.

To compete on a global scale with just Paypal f.i., bitcoin would need to go from 7 TPS to something like 700 TPS, or 100 MB block size, at which point propagation becomes problematic, and the risk of a block getting orphaned would be very high.
We already see many blocks that are not full, even blocks with just 1 tx or a couple hundred tx.

One way to reduce the orphan block risk could be to allow 1-block fork merging: a block could be allowed to have multiple previous blocks. This way if two blocks come at the same time, rather than one orphaning the other, the next block could accept both.

Currently if block B & C are mined based on block A, then only B or C will be accepted by block D being mined on either B or C.

The proposal would be that D could accept both B & C, half the B & C rewards would be lost (so the total reward is unchanged), duplicate transactions in a merge would be ignored/pruned. And probably that part of B & C reward+fee could go to D, to incentivize the merging.

For miners this would reduce the risk of a block being orphaned completely (and losing the full reward), which may encourage them to fill their blocks more, for users this increases the probability of their transaction getting through (in case they were in one of the blocks and not the other).

This is a quite massive hard-fork though, but I feel that without changes to the propagation and block acceptance, the risk of orphan eventually makes all block size increase discussions as relevant as counting angels on a pinhead.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Blocksize increase (or not) may ultimately be irrelevant on: August 21, 2015, 09:03:03 AM
I personally think the practical limit to block size is not the one in code, but the one derived from mining and propagation constraints.

Larger blocks are slower to propagate, take more time to prepare, and have a greater chance of being orphaned. As an illustration, SPV mining and 1 transactions blocks are already common.

IMHO that's where there is the greater risk in terms of bitcoin scalability: it is already risky (in terms of profit) to pack too many transactions in a block.
As block rewards go down, all low-fee tx should be filtered out by profit-oriented miners, and they should strive to make small blocks packed with high fee tx.

It just does not make direct economical sense (from a miner PoV) to have large blocks (higher risk of orphans) unless fees are sufficiently higher. Including low fee or zero fee transactions is basically a donation from the miners, a kind of modern faucet, it will likely go away as block rewards go down.

So block size may ultimately be irrelevant in terms of fees, propagation speed may be the name of the game (at least for profit-oriented pools).
8  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Proposal for blockchain-based "transaction 2FA" / reversible transaction on: August 20, 2015, 02:28:38 PM
One issue with transactions is that they are currently not reversible, even when you realize a few seconds after hitting the send button it's the wrong recipient, or the wrong amount.

Below is a proposal for a mechanism that would allow "2FA" and a grace period for reverting transactions when the recipient is "trustable" (such as a merchant, a reputable payment processor, etc.).
Unlike other proposals, it is very simple, does not require any direct communication channels outside of the blockchain, and is purely voluntary and optional.

Please shoot away criticism *after* reading it  Grin

The idea is to introduce a new type of transactions, preferably alongside a new class of addresses, that could begin with 'R' for instance:
  • an output to an R address can be redeemed by the usual means, but also by signing all inputs of the transaction that created this output

This would allow the following online payment scenario:
  • 1 - merchant generates an R address, displays it to customer
  • 2 - customer scans, copy/pastes, whatever and sends his payment tx
  • 3 - merchant notices the new transactions (even with 0 confirmations), checks the amount and displays it alongside a "confirm" button or an "alert" button
  • 4a - if customer confirms, merchant issues a transaction, redeeming the R address to its own wallet (even with zero confirmations), then waits for confirmations on that redeeming transaction (waiting for 1 to 3 confirmations as usual)
  • 4b - if customer sees no "confirm" button, or realizes he sent to the wrong address or the wrong amount, for whatever reason, he can hit the "revert" button in his wallet, which will send a tx to recover the funds, the only losses are then the tx fees

Step 3 and beyond are currently not possible, at least not without human interaction.

For the reversal to be possible, it requires an "honest" merchant or processor, that will wait for a customer confirmation action before issuing the redeem transaction that will empty the R address. But that should not be a problem for all major merchants and processors, since you already have to trust them to deliver in the real-world.

Alongside with multi-sig, this mechanism would also allow new forms of purely blockchain-based escrow or multi-party contributions to a trusted entity, f.i. several people pooling funds for a cause with a deadline, and those people would still be allowed to individually backtrack, without requiring a human to perform refunds manually.
9  Bitcoin / Legal / BitLicense... who does it apply to exactly? on: August 09, 2015, 03:43:40 AM
Just reading the terms, it seems to apply to anyone dealing with virtual currencies...

Are there clear unambiguous exemptions?
Like for merchants or services that just accept bitcoin payments (but do not hold customer funds)?

 Huh
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Increase block size or increase fees? on: June 02, 2015, 09:18:43 AM
Back to the blunt technicalities: what happens if the block size does not grow?

  • more memory usage (ever growing mempool, ie. the list of unconfirmed tx each node maintains)
  • more network bandwidth (unconfirmed tx keep getting flown around and resubmitted)
  • more double spends (from resubmitted tx that occasionally go through)
  • increasing fees (pools trying to deal with the above, and treat any tx without enough fee as spam)

Why? because people with unconfirmed tx would just keep re-submitting and spam, as that's the most effective technique to get *your* transaction through in a congested traffic situation, just like elbowing is the most effective technique to get through a crowd.

Yes, it would be selfish, but it would still happen.

Let's face it: limiting block size will NOT reduce network contention or make running nodes lighter.
Only reduced bitcoin usage would, and increasing fees would achieve that.

So basically the two options today are to either do something and increase block size, or do nothing and let fees rise.



edit: just to be clear, I am for the block-size increase, I am just outlining the only possible consequence of NOT increasing block size, and that is a fee increase.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Burn Baby Burn! - Compiling all Bitcoin burn addresses on: January 08, 2015, 10:59:02 AM
Here is a list of all likely Bitcoin burn addresss I could find through simple examination of address strings.

Feel free to reply with other burn addresses or anecdotes about the burns.

Amounts are indicative, last updated on 2015-01-08, Grand total: 2617.393 BTC burned

Addresses in order of historical apparition, so multi-addresses messages should be readable.

Be warned that some messages can be deemed offensive.

Amounts above 1 mBTC bolded

1111111111111111111114oLvT22.99181099
11111111111111111111BZbvjr0.01025480
1BitcoinEaterAddressDontSendf59kuE1.91702244
1EricLombrozoXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXWACBVB0.02500000
1969SandraSandicXXXXXXXXXXXXXvdEiU0.01500000
1Peop1eA1iceRemarkedxxxxxxxxxuLyKu0.00010000
12ohYouCantHe1pThatxxxxxxxxxzCjyMs0.00010000
191mMadYoureMadxxxxxxxxxxxxxvwA4Up0.00010000
12YouMustBeSaidTheCatxxxxxxxz2tFa20.00010000
1BitcoinKicksAss1111111111114BbAUx0.00020000
12TisTrueWithoutALie22222221wT3qjn0.00020000
1CertainAndMostTrue2222222225YPnJF0.00020000
12ThatWhich1sBe1ow22222222226vzcxR0.00000000
12ofThe1Thing222222222222221wv1hge0.00020000
12ofThe1xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxy1aqzJW0.00020000
191tsFather1sTheSun2222222225iM4gY0.00000000
191tsMother1sTheMoon22222221z3BtXD0.00000000
191tsNurse1sTheEarth22222221zkkvAq0.00000000
1BeenTurned1ntoEarth222222221soWAL0.00000000
1FromTheFire11111111111111113MzD3d0.00000000
198765ToTheEarth432111111111377S8T0.00000000
1AndReceivesThePower111111111hGdm70.00000000
1F1eeFromYou21111111111111111t6TRM0.00000000
12ofA11StrengthThis1s55555552nCoKd0.00000000
12TrueStrengthBecause44444442gxLoc0.00000000
1A11That1sSo1id22222222222222hakjF0.00000000
1333ThriceGreatHermes33333337uPVys0.00000000
112JustATwoLine222222222221vcJxpZ0.00000000
11111Test111112222222222222LiApa0.00000000
11ToTheeXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXdR6cAb0.00000000
11A11Myse1fXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXn5k7N0.00000000
11AdmitNeitherXXXXXXXXXXXXXUijHfx0.00000000
111ntensificationNorXXXXXXXUy3aW20.00000000
11WhatsoeverRu1e41nXXXXXXXXUat9Pj0.00000000
111nferredByGenera1XXXXXXXXagDnuz0.00000000
11ExceptionsxXXXXXXXXXXXXXXZQvoAs0.00000000
11CreatorWithCertainXXXXXXXWyF2xW0.00000000
11AndThePursuitofXXXXXXXXXXThdsC20.00000000
111nstitutedAmongMenXXXXXXXYkWtwg0.00000000
11Wi11DictateThatXXXXXXXXXXbVNCX40.00000000
11GovernmentsLongXXXXXXXXXXXqCAG80.00000000
11ChangedForLightAndXXXXXXXVf8PSj0.00000000
11TransientCausesAndXXXXXXXYbAnJv0.00000000
11RightThemse1vesByXXXXXXXXYGm9w30.00000000
11ThemUnderAbso1uteXXXXXXXXXMC3HG0.00000000
11SecurityXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXcKTtqh0.00000000
11TheSetupTheJokeA1waysXXXXTF9Wzp0.00000000
11BeginsWithAFami1yActGoingY3Q4qw0.00000000
111nToSeeATa1entAgentThoseXZxb7hQ0.00000000
11WhoMeetTheAgentCan1nc1udeX5TTvE0.00000000
11TheWho1eFami1yorJustoneXXYzNRZs0.00000000
11Fami1yMemberUsua11yTheXXXWZGoMP0.00000000
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111nterestedAndAP1eaFromTheZMwnkD0.00000000
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11PresentTheActMayBeXXXXXXXZyNvW20.00000000
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11WhichUsersMakeXXXXXXXXXXXX4tQgN0.00000000
11AccountingSystemAXXXXXXXXX7N99L0.00000000
11ForAUsertransactionXXXXXXXyEZe10.00000000
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11ConsistentCurrencyXXXXXXXYTsJJr0.00000000
11WithoutCentra1izedXXXXXXXWHFrwq0.00000000
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11VaryingNumberofXXXXXXXXXXS53NeZ0.00000000
11Leve1sofHonestyAndXXXXXXXZ6wika0.00000000
11AmongThe1ndividua1XXXXXXXUKxC7k0.00000000
11ParticipantsXXXXXXXXXXXXXUGmPx60.00000000
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11ForHisAbi1itiesAsAXXXXXXXZounSR0.00000000
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11589b3caadbd4odbXXXXXXXXXXWTF16u0.00100000
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1111111111111111114hC5DWZkt90.00010000
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1JamatrixTheTurdBurg1arXXXXV8agN20.00100000
1iLoveYouForeverYukiXXXXXXXV8wpyQ0.00006000
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1ChancecoinXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXZELUFD480.19421570
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12  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitstamp - Taint analysis on: January 05, 2015, 08:51:50 PM
What follows is a Bitstamp Hot Wallet from taint analysis

This is guesstimated, from blockchain analysis only, so take it with a shovel of salt and a critical eye.
It's at best an under-estimation, as the taint will naturally not affect all change addresses and other things, though from experience on altcoins, it's not usually complete bollocks either Wink

Hot Wallet guesstimated Balance
day
01/01/2015
02/01/2015
03/01/2015
04/01/2015
05/01/2015
received
1,657.5
2,778.2
9,592.7
18,614.2
1,223.1
spent
934.9
2,553.8
9,033.8
21,122.9
1,338.7
balance
1,842.3
2,066.7
2,625.7
117.1
1.5

So apparently something happened on the 4th, either big external deposit(s) followed by larger withdrawal(s), or something that triggered a refill from a cold storage.

The hot wallet was then promptly cleared, with the high fee transactions that have been reported, though it's anyone's guess at this point if it was Bitstamp clearing it in panic mode, or a thief.

And below is recent guesstimated hot wallet history, the big bumps are (AFAICT) deposits from the large cold storage they created during their audit, so they're very likely artifacts more than real deposits. Those deposits were eventually compensated by withdrawals to likely cold storage addresses.

It shows Bitstamp aimed to keep between 500 and 2000 BTC in their hot wallet, so the hack occurring just after or during a "bump" to 20k BTC is suspicious.

13  Economy / Economics / Blockchain Taint Analysis of Exchanges on: November 25, 2014, 11:32:48 AM
I'm looking for people to help validate an ongoing taint analysis of the blockchain.

So far it has only been run in my altcoin explorers (https://chainz.cryptoid.info), so this would be a first AFAIK for bitcoin, and the scale is massively larger, as are the opportunities for errors, given the complex history of bitcoin.

Ideal would be people that know how Bitcoin exchanges works, have accounts at various exchanges at which they have processed coins (deposited and or withdrawn), and that could help validate the correctness (or lack of) of the analysis.
If you have kept transaction or address information about now dead exchanges, that would be even better.

You would not have to reveal your accounts, I just need some 3rd party confirmations.

If you are a student/researcher on bitcoin blockchain and can help with the validation, you would get early access to the analysis results.

If the result are not complete bollocks, it will eventually be made public, but do not expect quick results, analysis runs take days, and when errors/bugs are found, it sometimes has to be re-run from scratch.
14  Economy / Speculation / Calling a five months target at $211 - next prediction on page 7 :) on: October 29, 2014, 03:50:11 PM
Just for the fun of it and the record.

Why? Because a bunch of lines on a drawing converge there, and 211 because it's the nearest prime.

No idea what happens after the "singularity" on 2015 April Fool's, but being an irredeemable bull I would say up.

15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / chainz.cryptoID.info - Alternative Blockchain Explorers on: April 15, 2014, 07:21:57 AM

An alternative blockchain explorer service for alternative cryptos


___________________________________________________
  • Focused on End-Users, with decoded info
  • Fast queries, Live updates, All the data
  • Rich addresses lists & exhaustive rankings
  • Wealth distribution chart
  • Exchange wallet detection and ranking
  • Mining & Extraction stats (for PoS too!)
  • Price tickers & market cap
  • SSL encryption (https)
  • Network health statistics
  • Overview statistics per day
  • API (total coins, balances, multiaddr...)

    Note: Explorer additions are currently suspended

       After a hectic early 2017, we are reaching the limits of our current infrastructure,
       back-office tools especially. So rather than jeopardizing stability of current
       explorers, we are suspending addition of new explorer for Summer 2017, and we will
       use that time to upgrade our back-office and automation tools.


    Please use bitcointalk messages or cryptoid.uservoice.com for technical suggestions and support tickets.

    Future plans include better support for public ledgers, sleuth/money trails tools, more stats/charts and blockchain.info-compatible API.
    The explorers are built on alternative tech, not related to abe, insight or other existing explorers.

    New coins will be considered for inclusion on a case by case basis, current requirements for inclusion are a wallet daemon that compiles under Ubuntu 14 LTS or 16 LTS, a bitcoin-compatible API, and to help cover the hosting costs.

    Explorers are running on a high performance infrastructure, which is upgraded regularly. Currently there are 18 servers for the wallet daemons, plus two web/db servers (one main, one backup/failover) and a storage/backup server.
    Note that to maintain performance when block-chains are attacked or suffer issues, wallet servers aim for no more than 15% CPU usage. With 70+ blockchains, there are always a few experiencing issues.

    We will not delist blockchains because they get too large, too busy or just to make room.
    We do not restrict data to just the latest transactions or sorry you with "this address has too many records to display".
    We do plan for being capable of handling a blockchain in 12 months, and beyond.
    We do plan to survive social media spikes in times of crisis (forks, exchange hacks, reverts, etc.) and we did handle a couple already!

    Note that due to unclear BitLicense requirements, requesting an explorer is not possible for New York state residents or citizens. If you happen to live or be a New York state citizen, please contact the NY DFS for further inquiries.
    16  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Idea: embedding client update info in the blockchain on: February 14, 2014, 08:29:50 AM
    Has probably been discussed before, but here goes, since none of the existing clients (AFAICT) support that:

    Embedding client wallet update information into the blockchain

    Currently updating the client wallets means manually checking news, downloading a client wallet from some website, trusting that the website hasn't been hacked, trusting that the client is okay, hasn't been tempered with, etc. Even when compiling from source, there is a degree of trust involved (since you can't manually check everything).

    So the idea would be that client wallets would check for transactions from a special address in the blockchain (hardcoded into the client for each version), and those transactions would encode in their outputs (either via vanitygen'ed destination addresses and/or special amounts) information about new versions
    • hash of the updated/upgrade binary (so you don't just have to trust a website or a download)
    • basic update info (minor upgrade, compulsory major upgrade, hard fork coming, etc.)

    This would allow a safe update notification and a safe signed upgrade mechanisms that doesn't rely on how the update binary is delivered. And only the devs (or rather whoever holds the private key to the special address) would be able to both announce and certify the update.

    This wouldn't involve any protocol updates, and other/custom clients would be unaffected by what they would see as regular transaction.
    17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / WorldCoin Well, let's build wells in Africa! on: January 24, 2014, 08:34:55 AM
    Great initiative! This iswhat cryptos also need to be about.  Grin

    WorldcoinWell.com



    www.WorldcoinWell.com is a www.Worldcoinfoundation.org initiative to raise the necessary funds to build a well system in West Kenya, Africa for a community in need.

    We’ve talked about the values that the Worldcoin community promotes, and now it’s time to act on those values.
    This will be the first time a cryptocurrency community has taken on a project like this.

    It is our hope that, with the success of this fundraiser, we can spur the community to take part in similar efforts to do some good. We have partnered with www.TheWaterProject.org to carry out the actual building of the well system, and they will be providing the community with progress updates as they become available.
    18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / [ANN][PLUC] PlutocratCoin - In Wealth We Trust on: January 23, 2014, 08:10:31 AM
    Introducing the one, the only



    PlutocratCoin
    ( PLUC )


    - In Wealth We Trust -

    This coin is established to further the dominance of wealth, and nothing else.

    Intended uses for PLUC are

    Fine delicacies
    Private Jets, Mansions...
    Escorts
    Bribery
    Pump and dump

    - Coin Features -

    New Coin Generation only through Proof of Stake

    Proof of Work Generation 100% pre-mined
    (as is fitting)
    130 billion coins, because the Bilderberg counts 130 billionaires

    Coins will be distributed as favors only.

    Pure Diamond Encrusted Wallet Addresses for the Founders
    Fine Gold Wallet Addresses available for private favors
    Gold Plated Wallet Addresses can be purchased
    (Rabble gets regular Base58 Satoshi addresses, pfahh!)

    Official Site: coming soon for the rabble

    Official Club: either you're in, or you're not

    - Wallet Downloads -

    (Wallets are for the Rabble, Elite should use Banks)

    Windows: coming soon
     
    Linux: coming soon
     
    Mac: coming soon

    - Technical Details -

    Type=Scrypt/POW/POS
    Time To Block=60 Seconds
    Total Coin Supply=130 billions (initially)
    Proof of Stake Generation= 0.001% per year

    Pages: [1]
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