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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Mt Gox wall of withdrawals on: June 25, 2011, 04:02:53 PM
http://bitcoinmonitor.com/

guess what happened shortly after 16:00

what's up with the regular transactions of 46k bitcoins btw?
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / MT Gox is down! on: June 25, 2011, 03:43:09 PM
unresponsive
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin price is too high at 20$/BTC on: June 23, 2011, 11:26:35 PM
I think current prices are highly speculative, and even if bitcoins will be a huge success story cannot be sustained for the next few years.

Here's why, counter-arguments welcome. If you think I'm just trolling or trying to buy cheap, simply ignore this thread please.

I'll assume a price of 20$/BTC from here on, even though the top was at 30.

1.

2.6 million coins a year are mined until 2013, 1.3 million coins a year after that.
at 20$/BTC, that's equivalent to more than 50 million dollars in one year, or approx. 170 million dollars within 5 years, that have to flow into the system to sustain this price.

i.e. people have to buy BTCs for 170 million dollars!
what are the circumstances to make that happen?

(that's of course only if miners sell all of their gains, but if miners keep some of their coins it only means they expect to sell it for even more in the future!)

2.

bitcoin can draw its value only from demand from circulation, and temporarily from speculation.

money supply definitions are very diverse and incomparable, but just to give you an idea: M1 money supply of the eurozone is about 28% of annual GDP, M1 money supply of the US about 14% of GDP.

a bitcoin economy with a money supply of even 30% annual GDP would be valued at 21 million BTC, or 430 million $ a year.
what do you think the bitcoin economy amounts to a year? 5 figures? 6 figures?
what demand for bitcoins do you think that creates?

3.

in addition to that, by the above numbers and 6.5 million BTC supply now, the BTC money supply grows by 40% within a year, or by 18% a year over the next 5 years.

that's huge inflation, unless there is ADDITIONAL demand from circulation and/or speculation.

a bitcoin economy valued at 430 million dollars a year now at 20$/BTC is at 600 million $ in a year, or 1 BILLION $ a year in 5 years.

==>

20$/BTC is HIGHLY speculative.
maybe the bitcoin economy explodes and these prices are sustained, but to think that the price even rises substantially would mean the scenario above would have to be outperformed, or demand from speculation increase even more so, for years to come.


edit: corrections. I miscalculated the GDP numbers.
4  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / "balance of accounts" block on: June 23, 2011, 05:18:17 PM
hi everyone,

I'm probably wrong and/or somebody already thought of this since I'm rather new here, but let me ask you a question:

downloading the blockchain already takes a while and is a couple of 100 MB.
why is there no "balance of accounts" block every X blocks?

let's say one in 10000 blocks has to be a large block that contains the balance of each address.
a balance block is confirmed by other nodes the same way transaction blocks are, so I don't see a way this can be cheated. clients only have to download all blocks since the last balance block instead of the entire block chain in order to be "fully operational". of course the client couldn't display the entire transaction history, but since blocks have a a date/time I don't see a problem here.
"Opening Balance as of xx/yy/zzzz (x Confirmations)".

what am I missing?
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Which side are you on? on: June 21, 2011, 01:23:19 AM
is it Kevin "look, I didn't even steal all the coins even though I could have" Bay, or is it MagicalTux "too bad, one account with a weak password had 500kBTC of spare change" MtGox?
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / MtGox's claims seem to be correct: Bitcoins still with them on: June 20, 2011, 12:30:51 PM
I think you can confirm from blockexplorer that MtGox didn't loose a large amount of bitcoins.

This seems to be their offline address: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1KLahQtqDNAXvrjNyfvgSBtAhwco5ZxLp4

There was a transfer at 18:17, at the time MtGox noticed the attack according to this timeline: http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=55

There were no transactions in that address before that!
Some on this board claim the hacker sold and bought a large amount of coins at 0.01 to be able to withdraw 1000$ worth of coins at 0.01.
if any of these 400k were affected, this would show up on this address.
of course, noone knows how many coins were at MtGox above that 400k, but these 400k seem to be safe.

they were transferred to multiple other addresses at aprox 22:00 in 50k chunks and are now sitting there.

unless the hacker got hold of the private key of MtGox's offline deposit address, the large recorded transactions were MtGox's.



7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin malware on: June 16, 2011, 02:10:36 PM
looks like someone identified malware than steals your wallet.dat, with only few scanners detecting it:

http://www.virustotal.com/file-scan/report.html?id=c7976118f0a8e1b7046f49718b5f49933db582d72adf6d78e1d4efc043ec6377-1308227137
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