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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Bitfinex & Poloniex concerns on: April 26, 2017, 09:04:29 PM
I think a 2000-2500 target is possible with earlier levels among the 1500 to 1700 range, but beware current issues surrounding some exchanges.

USDT is a questionable "asset" that is pegged to the US dollar. However, pegs inevitably fail. There has been as much as an 11% disparity between the value of USD and USDT which is highly disturbing - a peg is supposed to maintain 1:1 value. If it fails it may cause major issues with Bitfinex due to using USDT as its USD reserves, and lesser troubles for Poloniex which uses USDT but at much lower volume.

If there is trouble at Bitfinex, the stresses may have been increased considerably due to rapid withdrawals from the cold wallet[1] during April. The cold wallet balance has been halved since then and might simply indicate trader jitters, but worries about Bitcoin exchanges have tended to be well-founded.

With Bitcoin breaking out to new highs it seems sensible to me that it's worthwhile to simply hodl in a secure wallet. Should the need to sell arise, simply transfer the desired amount to an exchange.

Whether you choose to take action or do nothing based on the above information is up to you; being aware simply helps in the decision-making process.

[1] https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r
2  Economy / Computer hardware / [WTS] 8 BFL chip credits on: July 20, 2013, 04:58:03 PM
As stated, last 8 codes available. Make an offer by PM.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / How retail businesses can tremendously increase Bitcoin usage... on: April 28, 2013, 05:34:11 PM
Physical retail businesses have the potential to expand Bitcoin usage far more then exchanges or evangelism.

Offer for change from fiat purchases to be paid out in Bitcoin!

This removes the risk of accepting Bitcoin (although a merchant can continue accepting it), placing the burden on the merchant to remain trustworthy in order to maintain repeat patronage. The primary issue is education of customers, consisting of a three-step guide (until Bitcoin functionality is implemented in mobile browsers) and point-of-sale integration.

First, a retail business point-of-sale must support Bitcoin, including generating QR codes for refund purposes. This is easier with tablet-based systems than traditional ones, but can still be added in most cases.

Second, customer education must be provided, possibly in the form of a vinyl sticker. It should consist of three steps similar to the following:

  • Call to visit a URL and/or QR code link(s) directing to the bitcoin.org wallet list, or a similar page.
  • Instruction to generate a QR code to be scanned by the checkout clerk.
  • Direction to verify presence of the change amount, along with explanation that it may take a short time to show up.

Supplying businesses with the Bitcoins necessary to offer this service would best be handled by existing exchanges or payment processors. There may be additional regulatory hurdles for the processors, but they might also be able to work with various exchanges to overcome this.

A basic flow of the process:

Customer -> Fiat -> Business -> Bitcoin -> Customer

The process can continue readily until fiat is removed from the path.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Syria's Internet Traffic Went Dark on: November 29, 2012, 08:52:20 PM
Don't go to Syria if you rely on Bitcoin.

Also, don't go to Syria if you rely on life.
5  Bitcoin / Press / 2012-09-03 NASDAQ.com - Chomping at the Bitcoin on: September 03, 2012, 06:18:34 PM
http://www.nasdaq.com/video/video.aspx?vid=Chomping-at-the-Bitcoin-517457494

Huffington Post picked up by NASDAQ
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / J2ME Light BTC Client Status on: August 25, 2012, 11:49:29 PM
There's a massive J2ME market out there just waiting to dabble in Bitcoin the way M-Pesa caught on. Last I knew, some efforts had been attempted, but nothing substantial of late.

Does anyone know more?

Also, has anything been done with the Asterisk setup?
7  Economy / Speculation / Pirate Warned Us on: August 19, 2012, 10:12:58 PM
This is from an earlier thread when the $9 level was breached a month ago; pay attention to the parts I've underlined.

Dunno if there's another thread discussing this, I just saw this on Reddit (original log on pastebin).

Quote
<pirateat40> this was kind of like a training simulation.
<pirateat40> it will all make sense soon enough.
<pirateat40> crashed is != corrected.
<pirateat40> we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.
<proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10?
<pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to.
<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.

<pirateat40> Keep buying people...
<pirateat40> I'm just going to say this [one] time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.
<pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
<pirateat40> GO!, NOW
<pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning.
<pirateat40> 80% is the people not in our tiny community.
<pirateat40> Im trying to make a point here.
<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

In the July spike above $9, there was far too rapid an ascent. This one showed the same hallmarks and has so far elicited similar actions from Pirate (et al?). Neither were bubbles, but rather carefully managed ranges.

After the price was knocked down from $9, there was a calm period of almost two weeks. The decline from $15 is now nearly 50% and should create a somewhat longer calm period when it comes to technical trading - possibly several weeks, or even months in duration if Pirate was the primary cause of appreciation over the last few months.

Of course, with Pirate closing BS&T, the liquidation process will probably be volatile. I expect to see patterns similar to gold from mid-2011 to early 2012, only crammed into about a week's time. Since the Bitcoin economy is significantly greater than the community on the forums and IRC, we are privy to more information than most of the people participating in the exchange markets and can better capitalize on that volatility.
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / James Turk's Q&A with GoldMoney followers includes section on Bitcoin on: August 18, 2012, 05:02:49 AM
Source

From the relevant section quoted below, James Turk (founder of GoldMoney) clearly doesn't yet grasp the nature of Bitcoin, equating it with fiat currencies "backed by nothing". Oddly enough, GoldMoney accepts fiat currencies backed by nothing. His response really had nothing to do with Bitcoin at all. Sadly, this view probably won't change for some time, if ever.

Quote
25) Felix Fms: When will I be able to fund/withdraw my GoldMoney Holding with Bitcoins?

JT: Probably never. BitCoins are the ultimate currency backed by nothing. It is not money in my view because money is a tangible asset, and BitCoins are not.

From time to time, new conventional “wisdoms” defying logic and historical precedent become fashionable and fixed in the mindset of the population, holding sway until the bubble brought about by this fallacious thinking pops. We saw this phenomenon during the internet bubble, when it was said that profits don’t matter – only market share does. We saw it again in the real estate bubble when it was said that home prices only go up. And we are seeing it now when people say the dollar is money. It is not money in the true meaning of that word. The dollar is only a money-substitute, as are all the national currencies of the world.

In recent decades, people have lost sight of the fundamental truth of economic activity that goods and services are paid for with other goods and services. One cannot consume the currency we accept in payment, which is used merely to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. Only goods and services can improve our situation in life. So to properly describe its purpose, currency is a tool we use to temporarily hold some wealth in the form of deferred purchasing power, until we are ready to purchase a good or service.

The deferred purchasing power embedded in national currency is not solely reliant upon the view of market participants, as is the case for physical gold and silver. Rather, it also relies upon the creditworthiness and reliability of the issuer of the national currency, which is a feature that highlights the fundamental difference between tangible assets (land, food, an oil well, gold, etc.) and financial assets (basically anything dependent upon a counterparty).

As society developed, the most liquid and reliable tangible asset – namely, gold and silver – became money in a market process that began in pre-history, thus giving the precious metals what is now a 5,000-year track record as money. When used as currency, the precious metals enable tangible assets to be exchanged for other tangible assets, resulting in an exchange that is immediately extinguished. There is no lingering obligation.

However, if a national currency is used to “buy” some good or service, the exchange is not complete because the currency is nothing more than an I.O.U. dependent upon the promises of both the government that is the issuer and the counterparty, which is the government and its central bank in the case of cash-currency while banks are the counterparty for deposit currency. The party accepting this I.O.U. does not extinguish the exchange until they can use the national currency to purchase a tangible good or service; this period of time often entails considerable risk to the holder of the national currency. This basic monetary principle applies regardless whether one is considering a purely domestic transaction, or an international one.

In our society, one works efficaciously to produce some marketable good or service, and we all accept currency in payment. We accept currency not only because it is useful to each individual, but also because more broadly, it makes possible the division of labour, which enables humankind to achieve a higher standard of living than if we had to rely on barter.

So to understand the essential nature of the ongoing fiat currency bubble, we need to recognise that currency today is a money-substitute. It is not money itself because the dollar and other national currencies are not tangible. And to avoid being caught up in this bubble, we should hold physical gold and silver. Even though they are not used much as currency – which is a paradigm that GoldMoney eventually hopes to change – they still are money.

Trillions of dollars have been widely accepted in global commerce in the belief that those dollars can eventually be turned into tangible goods or services. The fiat currency bubble will pop as the understanding grows that dollars – and indeed all fiat currencies – have been issued to too great an extent. There are not sufficient goods and services at current prices to satisfy everyone’s desire to spend their accumulated deferred purchasing power held as dollars. As confidence in the dollar erodes, the fiat currency bubble will eventually pop. It inevitably must because the banking system continues to create dollars “out of thin air” to provide the federal government with the dollars it is spending. The structural federal deficits and the undisciplined approach to creating currency that ultimately enables the issuing of unlimited dollars explain why we are approaching hyperinflation of the US dollar. And while BitCoins may not end in hyperinflation, like all national currencies, they are not backed by anything tangible.
9  Economy / Speculation / The Danger Zone on: August 17, 2012, 08:11:36 AM
This week, the danger zone is above approximately $15.50 - buy at your own risk.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / World Currencies on: August 01, 2012, 05:08:41 AM
Based off of this source, but with one very important addition...

11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / What is Swiftcoin? on: July 02, 2012, 08:21:57 AM
Swiftcoin?

Does anyone have more information on this? Is it Solidcoin 3.fail?

I don't see anything open or in support of full disclosure.
12  Economy / Economics / Slow Psychological Growth = Success on: July 02, 2012, 12:31:12 AM
What was the USD exchange rate when you became involved with Bitcoin?

$0.01?
$0.10?
$1.00?
$30.00?
$3.00?
$5.00?

What would you consider a reasonable price? Do you long for the 'good old days' of being able to get a thousand bitcoins for a few dollars? How many people are even aware of the system's history enough to realize that the rate used to be much lower than $2? How many will never know that?

For many of us, the genesis block in 2009 is a distant memory that isn't even our own. It is external, the same as the birth of our parents. We were not there for it: it just was, because if not, our parents would not exist - and by extension, neither would we. The principle of monetary value is very similar to this.

From Mises' The Theory of Money and Credit:

Quote from: Ludwig von Mises
... a historically continuous component is contained in the objective exchange value of money.

The past value of money is taken over by the present and transformed by it; the present value of money passes on into the future and is transformed in its turn. In this there is a contrast between the determination of the exchange value of money and that of the exchange value of other economic goods.

The debate over whether Bitcoin is or is not money, a commodity, or the possibility of its origins no longer matters; it hasn't mattered for some time. Bitcoin is very simply functioning on a basis of its own existence. Those new to Bitcoin today will understand it to have a value of about USD$6.50 or whatever their local currency is exchanged for, and with no other historical basis to form their opinion, that will be the fair value they are accustomed to.

Without deeper exploration into the ideas behind cryptocurrencies, what remains is a use paradigm. It spreads like an Internet meme, the more unique and appealing, the wider the and more deeply-rooted it will be in the social mindset. Many know of trollface, and it applies in a wide range of situations. There's a solid anchor to a particular behavior which most people are familiar with. Likewise, Bitcoin works in a familiar way, but has certain distinct elements which differentiate it enough to make an impact.

At least one entire generation has now grown up with email because it simply existed. Awareness and usage were simply ingrained. The same goes for driving a car, playing sports, watching television... and banking. If a person newly discovers Bitcoin and finds that either $1 or 0.1BTC both buy a bottle of water, then a Bitcoin develops as being worth $10 from that person's perspective - because Bitcoin just is.

Any continued adoption of Bitcoin will build a new basing platform at each stage. What was your entry point? I'm still wishing I paid more attention when I read some here and there so long ago, well under $1...
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Publicity idea on: June 26, 2012, 04:24:13 AM

That's where a good catch phrase can work wonders. I like Bitcoin: Better Money Smiley
14  Local / Español (Spanish) / Mondragón Corporación on: June 25, 2012, 11:48:43 PM
¿Mondragón es consciente de Bitcoin?
15  Economy / Economics / MF Global 2.0 on: May 04, 2012, 06:03:36 PM
Ann Barnhardt raises warnings again: MF Global 2.0 May Be Unfolding Now

After MF Global failed last year, there was a Canadian firm and a Japanese fund that mimicked the rehypothecation fiasco. Now, it looks like the next wave is hitting, and it's a big one.

If you haven't yet, follow Jim Sinclair's advice to make your holdings book entries at the respective transfer agents so that your ownership of stocks cannot be questioned as easily as if it were your word against your broker. This isn't a guarantee, but it's better than nothing.

More instruction on direct registry from JSMineset.
16  Economy / Speculation / Gold is Bitcoin is Gold on: April 04, 2012, 03:18:42 AM
For several months now, I've been suspicious of Bitcoin's price movements in relation to precious metals futures - particularly gold & silver. With the recent Reuters story "Bitcoin, the City traders' anarchic new toy", the alarms have grown even louder.

Time permitting, I'll have a more in-depth analysis of the large price moves that seem to occur in Bitcoin within one day prior to major moves in gold and silver. The correlation has been highly predictive for months now.

In conjunction with more long-term analysis and indicators, it seems to be very possible to front-run the market manipulation. Since both Bitcoin and the precious metals are inevitably constrained by a limited supply, this should be no surprise.

This connection may remain for a long time. Maybe a fund could be implemented to capitalise on the pattern?
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Wallet passphrase works in bitcoin-qt but not bitcoind on: April 03, 2012, 03:43:44 AM
A wallet has been encrypted using the GUI client, bitcoin-qt. I've been having an issue where I can unlock the wallet using bitcoin-qt normally, but not at the command line with bitcoind.

Example:
Code:
bitcoind walletpassphrase mYpAS$w0Rd 60
error: {"code":-14,"message":"Error: The wallet passphrase entered was incorrect."}

The password has been entered using escape characters, but error -14 persists. Both versions have been compiled from the latest git.
18  Economy / Speculation / Precarious on: February 19, 2012, 10:10:47 PM
It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).



So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3.
19  Economy / Economics / Looking forward to Bitcoin's complete collapse on: February 16, 2012, 02:26:09 AM
It would be wonderful, yet dangerous, if this happened to the Bitcoin system. Why?

Objectively:
  • Participation declines
  • Difficulty falls
  • Exchange rate falls
  • Blockchain maintenance becomes less intensive
  • Major changes to protocol have less resistance

Subjectively positive:
  • Bitcoin falls off established institutional threat scale
  • Necessary protocol changes can be more readily implemented
  • Excess irrational speculation is culled

Subjectively negative:
  • System domination by concentrated interests becomes a strong possibility
  • Reduced external capital flows could hamper resurgence for a long time

This is being approached from the perspective that 2009-2012 was a practical, live proof-of-concept run for Bitcoin. Now that the system has proven itself resilient and viable, being suppressed would allow development, refinement, and implementation of vital features. The end result being that Bitcoin's 'second-coming' would be even more potent than the first.

As the path being pursued by current regimes strangles their own economies, national populations will finally recognize the dangers that have beset them. By then it will be too late to escape, and the search for alternatives commences. Bitcoin remains an ideal system to counter the dying paradigms, so it should make an explosive return; a dark horse to all except those with true understanding of the system and follow the developments.

None of this suggests that the USD/BTC rate will go to zero, or that the present blockchain will fall into obscurity, only that the relative shrinking of Bitcoin from today's marginal public awareness could be a boon rather than a death knell.
20  Economy / Economics / Bitcoinica Interest = Boost for Bitcoin on: February 14, 2012, 05:48:22 AM
At first glance, this may appear a negative for Bitcoin - interest charged for holding a long Bitcoin position?

Check your Account Ledger for your first interest payment! Now both USD and BTC have noticeable interest rates.



Yes, more interest is returned by shorting BTC.



Some of the recent drop from the mid-$5/BTC range to the high-$4/BTC level can certainly be attributed to this. How much is uncertain, but it definitely isn't propping up the rate.

Correct me if anything is mistaken...

One of the issues here is that there has recently been insufficient net capital flow from other sources to provide a major push in either direction. In order for capital to flow into the Bitcoin system, awareness and adoption need to occur. With Bitcoinica offering interest payments for long USD trading positions at a ridiculously high rate, it will catch on sooner rather than later.

Since direct naked shorting is impossible with Bitcoin and would eventually bankrupt the operator offering it, BTC must first be purchased with that newly-deposited USD capital. With some BTC now in the account, it is then possible to open a short BTC/USD position and gain that significant interest spread.

No matter what, some capital will flow into Bitcoin for every USD deposit. This can result in an initial dip, but long-term residual flows will accrue and bolster the exchange rate in Bitcoin's favor. Even if there were a stampede to the exits from Bitcoin, there will be some who can't get out and end up taking sizeable losses, that wealth then remaining within the Bitcoin system.

Most new participants don't take the time to study a market, so it's likely they will lose in the price movements. It's also very possible that some may be drawn into the trading and stay, creating a building momentum for general Bitcoin exposure.

Bitcoinica can only pay interest on balances so long as it can be maintained without bankrupting the outfit, so the high USD payment rate will decline as the exchange rate falls. That's good, because I've been waiting for the $3-4 region to be entered again so I can load up.

Clever work - thanks, Zhou!

Note: the problem is that any KYC compliance negates much of the very purpose for Bitcoin, partially because of relative anonymity and mostly because of American abuse of power.
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