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1  Economy / Speculation / Wall Observer Bull/Bear Index - BTC price tracking and speculation thread on: April 14, 2018, 06:26:43 PM
 Wall Observer Bull/Bear Index

Whenever there is a significant change in market price or depth, please feel free to update this thread with new charts or comments. TA, FA and other types of analysis are all welcome, feel free to participate if you have something worth while to contribute.

Posting guild lines:
1) Please lets keep this thread clean. If your post has no context to, or is not related to Bitcoin price speculation it might be deleted.
2) Try to keep random comments away from this thread, unless it is directly related to wall observations or information relevant to the bitcoin community.
3) I do appreciate some leeway in these guide lines but where I draw the line is at racial, sexist or bigoted comments...period. These types of posts will not be tolerated and deleted asap.
4) All posts will be evaluated on a individual basis and if they do NOT meet either the technical or entertainment levels I deem relevant..it might be deleted.
5) If you do not agree with any of the above..start your own thread. Thanks!
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This thread is for entertainment purposes only and is not to be taken as financial advice. Please do your own research.

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Bitcoin continues to accumulate and consolidate at $8k. My thoughts on this are,  if a upwards move does not happen soon then we will retest lower lows. Cloud cover(resistance) is thin above us but we are still in "bear" mode. Until the market can figure that out and adjust I think sideways and then downward is the most likely path.

Bitcoin is back to sideways as accumulation continues in the short term.


In the mid term bitcoin is still searching for liquidity.


Long term looks ok..I am concerned the longer we stay at these levels though.

2  Economy / Speculation / Whats your exit strategy? on: January 11, 2018, 08:32:30 PM
I was sitting here...and you know..speculating. Because really thats what I like to do.

Anyway..I was just sitting here watching the price and all of a sudden I wondered what the "price" would have to be for me to part with my coins. This is a deeply personal number for most of us...merely a business decision for others. But all of a sudden a number popped into my head. It would not go away. I tried to banish this foul thing..but alas..I could not. This number would mean substantial fiat wealth for my entire family..I am talking generational wealth. I used to think 8 digits for a family to be considered rich but today I think more like middle 8 digits..  

Now I have mined and hedl coin for what seems like ages now..almost 6 years soon..so the value I have to the current market price is..well..extraordinary to say the least. I am not saying this to boast or brag or any number of things, I say it to tell you that there is no "bottom" to the current market..even pre- December that would cause me to panic sell.

I have watched bitcoin grow from a small community of several thousands thru the MtGox debacle (yes..I was goxd..I opened an account in May of '13), thru the massive price spike that Fall where many bailed but I did not. Thru the lean bear years where there was plenty of opportunity to say fuck it..but I did not..I slowly bought more. Thru this time the community had grown to several hundred thousands of  people.

Now..thru the last year and last month..several hundreds of millions of people have heard and are talking about bitcoin. Two orders of magnitude over the previous metric no?

I say all this because yes..I am extremely bullish..I think use and adoption is going to grow and grow big over the next year. Once a LN becomes reality look out. Solutions are and will be build for bitcoin. I think crypto currencies in general are going to have a profound impact upon global markets over the next decade and I think capturing 5% of those markets(ie broad money) is feasible within the next year or two.

TL;DR  What is your price? Have you picked a number to exit?

I have. I will never sell all my bitcoins..some will be passed on to family. Some will be donated to worthy causes..but when..not if..that day comes..I will happily part with my coin and have zero regrets.


I have included some figures from another thread for context.
Quote
Broad money = $80,000,000,000,000 give or take a few trillion.

Bitcoin supply =  16,782,692

So all we have to do is figure out some percentages.

Bitcoin takes over the world!  $80,000,000,000,000/BTC16,782,682

100%=$4,766,818.55736

50%=$2383409.27868

25%=$1191704.63934    < Mcaffee expects 25% market penetration within a year...ummm...ya.

12.5%=$595852.31967

6.25%-$297926.159835

3.125%=$148963.0799175

1.5625%=$74481.53995875

0.78125%=$37240.769979375

0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

0.1953125%=$9310.19249484375

0.09765625%=$4655.096247421875

0.048828125%=$2327.548123710938

0.0244140625%=$1163.774061855469

0.01220703125%=$581.8870309277344

0.006103515625%=$290.9435154638672

0.0030517578125%=$145.4717577319336

0.00152587890625%=$72.7358788659668

0.000762939453125%=$36.3679394329834

0.0003814697265625%=$18.1839697164917

1.9073486328125e-4%=$9.09198485824585

9.5367431640625e-5%=$4.545992429122925

4.76837158203125e-5%=$2.272996214561462

What I find of interest is how some of these percentage points closely match some of out ATH's.  Food for thought.
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