Comparing the 2011 crash to now, I think within there is a chance that within 1 week, BTC will "crash" from $240 down to around $130.

I say "I think there is a chance" because it's naive to conclusively say the market will repeat itself. There's so many other factors to take into account.

The evidence for this chance:

Graph of past 2 months
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-02-10zeg2013-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Graph of past 2 months leading up to 2011 crash
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-04-8zeg2011-06-8ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

load them in separate tabs, toggle between the 2.

You notice 2 - 3 small peaks in about the same place, and a pretty similar growth pattern. 2011 had a noticeable peak at $10, went up to $30 and then down to around $15 before sinking lower (made worse by hacks at the time.)

I wouldn't be surprised if it just carried on rising though - after all there's no similarity in relative trade volume. If it did crash, I have faith it would recover in the long run.


Any thoughts?

Hi,

I've just started studying towards a PhD in Web Science (interdisciplinary study of the web) and over the next 4 years, I would like to do some serious in depth research into distributed currencies.

Initially, I'm looking into the link between crime and distributed currencies (sore point for some I know, but I try to be as clear as possible in the statement that not every Bitcoin transaction is by a criminal or for illicit purposes regardless of what the media say.) Eventually, I would like to go on to investigate the effects of distributed currencies on the real world and existing currencies and businesses, and hopefully contribute some good peer-reviewed literature that can help the push towards a successful and widely accepted distributed currency for the masses.

My background is in Computing Science so as you can imagine, I have a lot to learn before I can comment on humans or on currencies.

At the moment, I'm trying to bring myself up to speed on economics. I've had a fairly decent look and I may be looking in the wrong places, but I'm gob-smacked at the lack of economics textbooks that talk about the web and the internet. I mean, surely the implications of the web on economics justifies at least one textbook?

Can anyone advise any economics textbooks that discuss the effects of web on economics and vice versa (e.g. if it's the same as "real-world" economics, and if not, how?) Even latest editions of books like "economics for today" don't even have a chapter on economics on the web.

Thanks in advanced:)

Hi.

Whenever I try view my profile at Britcoin, I get nasty fatal errors:S

anyone else having similar problems?