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1  Economy / Speculation / Interesting short-term price prediction on: April 11, 2014, 01:38:42 PM
Hey guys, I'm sure a lot of you have seen my project/website which uses artificial neural networks to make bitcoin price predictions:

www.btcpredictions.com

I've mentioned before that it has some trouble with predictions when events in the news are significantly affecting the price (like now) but I thought I would post an interesting prediction it is making right now anyway. It seems to think that the price is going to rise relatively quickly into the upper $400s and then fall back down to the $420s over the next 24 hours, peaking around midnight EST. I definitely have some doubts about its correctness myself but it will be interesting to see what happens.

Often times when the 24 hour chart predicts big fluctuations like this, what happens is that fluctuations occur but to a much smaller degree than predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if we see prices go up to around $450 or $460 and then fall back down to something like $430. At any rate though, I think there will be some volatility today and I look forward to seeing what happens!
2  Economy / Speculation / Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 03, 2014, 04:14:58 PM
Some of you have seen my website which tries to predict bitcoin prices with software using neural networks:

www.btcpredictions.com

It successfully predicted the drop in price that happened yesterday morning (EST) and it was very accurate throughout the day. It also predicted this rise that we are seeing now, and it's saying that prices will go into the upper $400s, possibly hitting $500! Here is an image of the predictions as of 11am EST:



The software is not always this accurate, but it has been performing exceptionally well recently! I think that we will see prices over $500 within the next 24 hours.
3  Economy / Speculation / Potential Price Peak at 1-2pm EST 3/31 on: March 31, 2014, 02:14:26 AM
Hey guys, I made a prediction about a week ish ago about a dip in price that would occur at 4am, followed by a returning rise. The prediction was semi-successful in that the dip occurred, and the bottom of the dip occurred almost exactly when predicted, but the rise did not occur.

But anyway I would like to make another prediction now! Some of you have seen my website (http://www.btcpredictions.com). It has charts displaying predictions made by software using neural networks, and it's updated every hour based on the previous hour's prices. Right now, at 10:10pm EST, it is predicting a continued slow and steady rise in price until about 2pm EST tomorrow, when it says prices will start to go down a bit.

I believe this prediction is going to be pretty accurate. It has been making accurate predictions pretty consistently since the market calmed down a bit after the whole China ban thing. We'll see what happens though, this is certainly no guarantee!
4  Economy / Services / Online Bitcoin Price Forecast Software on: March 31, 2014, 01:09:49 AM
http://www.btcpredictions.com

Hey guys, this is a website that displays the data produced by software that I've been working on for a while now. The software tries to predict future bitcoin prices using neural networks. Predictions are displayed on charts on the home page, and updated every hour.

It has been relatively accurate in the short time this website has been up. You can see the average error for the neural network that made each prediction above the chart, which is updated whenever the predictions are updated. Usually the 24 hour prediction chart is around 1.3% average error and the 5-day chart tends to be around 2.6%. There is a 20 day prediction chart as well, but that one is a bit less accurate (~8.2% average error). The further the neural network tries to look into the future, the more difficult it is for it to give accurate results. The average error numbers have been gradually lowering though as more data becomes available to base predictions off of.

Unfortunately, the predictions tend not to work as well when news events occur that significantly affect bitcoin prices. I'm going to work on implementing a more complicated neural network soon that may help reduce this problem. If anyone decides to use this as a tool for buying/selling, you need to consider this. I think that these predictions could be very useful, but they have to be combined with diligently following the latest bitcoin news and using your own intelligent judgement.
5  Local / Mercado y Economía / Sitio Para Predecir el Precio de BTC on: March 30, 2014, 08:42:19 PM
http://www.btcpredictions.com

Esto es mi proyecto para predecir el precio de bitcoin. Uso artificial neural networks para analizar la historia completa de precios y hacer nuevos predicciónes cada hora. Obviamente no es perfecto todo el tiempo, pero es effectivo un grande parte del tiempo.

Lo siento que el sitio es en ingles... y que mi español es lejos de ser perfecto lol...
6  Bitcoin / Project Development / Bitcoin Price Prediction Software Using Neural Networks on: March 27, 2014, 03:28:38 AM
I've been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. It has been making reasonably accurate predictions. You can see them on this website:

http://www.btcpredictions.com

The 24 hour and 5 day predictions are often pretty good, and the 20 day prediction is a bit less accurate but still interesting to see. The predictions are certainly far from perfect but I think they still provide valuable information. By considering this forecast in addition to recent news stories (and your own, presumably intelligent, judgement), I think there is some solid potential to make money trading.
7  Economy / Speculation / 20 Day Price Forecast (8.2% error) on: March 24, 2014, 04:23:05 AM
Hey guys,

So I've posted this here before, but I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. Predictions can be seen here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com

A few people were asking me about predictions beyond 5 days, which was the longest forecast I had until today. I was able to get the software to make "reasonable" 20 day predictions. I say "reasonable" but really I would say they are probably very far from reliable. The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540). So the 20 day prediction probably is not useful for trading, but it is interesting because it reflects the general patterns that bitcoin prices are taking over a slightly longer period of time.

And remember, the 20 day prediction is new and still very much in a "beta" stage. I will try to improve on it, but I can't promise it will ever be significantly more accurate.
8  Economy / Speculation / Prepare for 4am dip on: March 21, 2014, 04:36:44 PM
Hey guys, so I have a slightly more reasonable prediction than the "prepare for march 16th dip" post made a little while back.

As some of you may have seen in a post I made several days ago, I have been working on software that uses neural networks to predict bitcoin prices. The predictions can be seen at http://www.btcpredictions.com/

The short term neural network has been consistently predicting a dip from around $585 down to about $562 and then back up to around $590 starting around 4am EST, reaching its lowest price around 7am and then returning to $590 around 10am.

Obviously this program's predictions are not always right, and predictions that are further away are more difficult for it to make. However, it seems relatively confident about this dip. I believe the dip will occur, though the magnitude may be a bit off or the dip may be shifted in one direction slightly. So we'll see how well the software performs!
9  Economy / Speculation / Methods of Prediction on: March 16, 2014, 09:05:24 PM
I was wondering what methods you guys have seen used to predict bitcoin prices? Right now I'm working on a software project that uses neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices (http://www.btcpredictions.com) but I was wondering what other strategies you guys have used and how successful they have been? Do people find a lot of success just going with their gut on this?

I'm currently working on a program that will simulate trading based on the predictions of this project so we'll see how well it does. I'm testing it right now, gonna let it run for at least a few days, probably longer.
10  Economy / Economics / Predicted Price of BTC on: March 13, 2014, 01:32:57 AM
Hey guys,

This is my first post here and I'd like to show you guys a project I've been working on that is pretty relevant. I've been working for a few months on writing software that analyzes the history of bitcoin transactions and finds patterns in the rise and fall of prices. The software then predicts future prices based on these patterns, and it has a surprisingly low average error (~1.35% for prices within 24 hours and ~2.62% for prices within 5 days).

Well anyway if you are interested you can learn a lot more about the project on this website, which displays charts showing the predicted prices:
www.btcpredictions.com

The data is automatically updated every hour on the hour. Let me know what you guys think, I would greatly appreciate any feedback!
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