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41  Economy / Marketplace / [FINISHED] Bet on bitcoin future price here (July 1st, 2011) on: May 26, 2011, 02:58:10 PM
Since there is no bitcoin futures market, I'm starting one. Speculate now on the value of bitcoins on 7/1/2011.

This is an experiment, so please don't bet your life savings.

Rules:

1) All bets will be tracked at this newly created address in a currently-empty wallet: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV
2) The "bitcents" represent your bet on the USD price of bitcoins on July 1, 2011 at noon U.S. pacific time. Examples:
      a) A bet of 1.13 BTC sent to that address is a bet of 1.13 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $13 USD on July 1st
      b) A bet of 12.08 sent to that address is a bet of 12.08 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $8 USD on July 1st
      c) A bet of 0.15 sent to that address is a bet of 0.15 BTC that bitcoins will be worth $15 on July 1st
      d) You can use sub-cents if you want. A bet of 0.015 BTC is placed on $1.50 per bitcoin
3) Winnings will be put in one pot and distributed as follows:
      a) 98% of the pot will go to the winners (those within + or - $0.50 of the final value, inclusive)
      b) 2% of the pot will go to me
      c) The pot will be split among winners by the size of their bet multiplied by the number of days in advance they made their bet (days will be fractional with resolution in seconds, per block explorer timestamps)
      d) Winnings will be returned to the sending address, so use the real bitcoin client, not a managed wallet
4) The reference price on July 1st will be determined by me, using my browser on MtGox, at exactly noon PST pacific time. If for some reason I am unable to do this, I will rely on MtGox records and/or forum members posting the price in this thread. I will do my best to be fair, and I will not be betting any of my own bitcoins, so I should be impartial.
      e) I will post the final price and who I think the winners are and how much they should get here for community vetting. I will allow for comments to accumulate over the following weekend, and then pay out on Monday Tuesday following the holiday weekend if there is no great scandal.
5) If an excessive amount of bitcoins are bet, I will probably seek a trusted forum member to hold some of the bitcoins so they aren't all in my care. My first choice would be _mndrix, followed by GavinAnderson. I would consider other highly trusted members if neither of them want to do it. Edit: See bond info below
6) New: As an incentive to kick things off, I'm offering 0.1BTC each to the first 5 betters: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.msg144375#msg144375

Obviously placing multiple bets at different prices is going to be a common strategy.


Update: Michael Hendrix (of Coinpal/Coincard fame) has agreed to hold 50 of my personal bitcoins as a bond against any mishaps with the money. You can see where he posted in the thread below with his PGP signature agreeing to hold my bond. You can view the bond here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/168bokgyuxUYp1HL7xeyZzQCj7dEKZQyuR

For posterity, here is the email I sent him:


Quote
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: *********************
Date: Thu, May 26, 2011 at 12:09 PM
Subject: Bitcoin Bond
To: m*chael@ndrix.org, serv*ce@ndrix.org


Hey Michael,

Would you be willing to hold a 50BTC bond for me? I'm running an experiment on the bitcoin forum with bitcoin futures, and I need to have somebody trustworthy to hold some bitcoins for me in case I make off with all the money.

The thread is here: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=10008.0

If you are willing to hold the bitcoins, please reply to me by email AND post on the thread (so I know your new forum name is really you) with an address to send the bitcoins to. Then I can post bond with you.

If people bet more than 50 bitcoins, I'll probably send you additional bitcoins for safekeeping at the same address.

Please let me know whether you are willing.

Thanks!

-********* (dacoinminster)
42  Economy / Services / [CLOSED] Earn BTC for unghosting craigslist ads on: May 13, 2011, 07:51:00 PM
This gig is now closed. Original posting is below.

Quote
I do a LOT of business on craigslist, and even though my ads aren't spam, I have posted so many ads that my IP address is now perma-ghosted (anything I post pretends to be live, but doesn't show up in search results).

My ads only rarely get flagged, but I need some people who can "unghost" my ads by posting them from a clean IP address and dummy email account. If they later get flagged, that's my problem. You just get paid to get them up.

What you will need:

1) An IP address that hasn't been banned by Craigslist (that rules out ALL public proxies, and possibly most non-US IP addresses)
2) A U.S. phone number (for anyone posting more than just a couple ads)
3) Ability to create a dummy email address for the sole purpose of forwarding emails to me
4) Enough common sense to not discuss the ads here (that will just get them flagged)
5) Basic familiarity with craigslist, computers, and bitcoin

I will provide you with:
Text ads for you to post
Bitcoins, at $0.33 USD rate per ad posted (according to the current MtGox exchange rate at the time of payment)
43  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 11, 2011, 08:37:33 PM
OK - I can't stand it anymore. I have to let you guys know why I think bitcoin price increases are just getting started. I think my logic is best described in this IM conversation I had with my best friend:

Friend: So what is the economic reasoning why this stuff should become super-valuable?
Me: Well, there's this: http://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&q=drug+money
Me: That will probably always be a big part of it, because it has all the advantages of cash plus a lot more
Me: The main reason though, which I haven't told anybody except my wife, and that only briefly, is that it is the perfect commodity for trading stocks, bonds, commodities, options, etc.
Me: It won't be legal, but I guarantee it will happen
Me: There are TRILLIONS of dollars in those markets
Me: But only 21 million bitcoins
Me: You get some percentage of that moving to bitcoins, and the math is easy
Me: Plus, of those 21 million bitcoins, most of them aren't for sale
Me: So if billions of dollars of ANYTHING moves into bitcoins, their value will be much, much more than billions of dollars
Me: Depending on how you do the math, you can come up with some pretty absurd future values
Friend: Why would someone start trading in stocks/bonds/com mod,
Friend: In a currency that may magor-inflate?
Me: Well, there are some trades you just can't make right now.
Me: For instance, there are no futures or options for many smaller stocks
Me: Remember when I was interested in penny stocks? One of the biggest problems with trading them is that there are never enough short-borrows available, so even though you KNOW a stock is going to crash, you can't profit from it
Me: Also, there is always insider trading. That's why this stuff won't be legal
Me: I know my stock is going to crash because I spent all the money on hookers and blow, so I short it on the bitcoin black market
Me: Completely untraceable insider trading profits
Me: I'm confident that billions of dollars are going to move into digital currencies like bitcoin. The main risk I see is that a different digital currency will take it's place. That would make bitcoins much less valuable, if not worthless
Me: Bitcoin price instability is one of the biggest reasons this sort of thing will be hard to do, but there is a solution for that as well
Me: You can "short" bitcoin to equal the amount of bitcoins you are holding, so that you are neutral to any bitcoin price swings. You can do something like that with only a small amount of bitcoins using options

Note for posterity: current bitcoin price is in the $5-$6 range after a big run-up.

I think it is appropriate that this is my hundredth post Smiley

Edit: Since this thread is now my signature, I want to include my official bitcoin predictions I made in another thread before starting this one:
Quote
I'm going to step out on a limb and make some predictions about bitcoin price increases:

1) A lot of kids with graphics cards are going to get a LOT of spending money just because they saved the few bitcoins they mined after reading about it in a forum somewhere
2) The term "bitcoin billionaire" is going to become somewhat commonplace, and will refer to someone who became a billionaire through bitcoin investment.
3) The world's first trillionaire (by USD valuation) will be one of the first big investors in bitcoins.
4) This will all happen WITHOUT the collapse of the US dollar, and without bitcoins becoming a commonplace way to pay at the grocery store.

I guess we'll see if I'm right.

Edit 8/11/2011: My proposal for "the ticker and the hole" is quite possibly the way this will happen: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=36453.0

Edit 4/2/2013: I now have much more sophisticated ideas about how bitcoin will achieve stability (see my signature). Bitcoin cleared $100 yesterday, and I'm reviving this thread in which in 2011 I predicted wild growth ahead before even the first bitcoin bubble. Note that the arguments above are no less valid today!
44  Other / Obsolete (buying) / [closed] $100 MtGox USD for sale on Ebay on: May 02, 2011, 07:13:00 PM
I canceled this auction for reasons described in the thread

Quote
I am now selling MtGox USD on Ebay: http://cgi.ebay.com/300556550490

Below is the auction for a bitcoin gift certificate which I had to cancel for reasons described in this thread.

Quote
Here is my current ebay auction selling a paper gift certificate for 25BTC (no reserve): http://cgi.ebay.com/300555905164

Here is my gift certificate template in case anybody else wants to use it:

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/7460/certificate100.png

Feel free to make it your own. The font is Papyrus (it's overused for a reason!)

Original post that started this thread:

Quote
Now that coinpal/coincard is down, I've listed a "gift certificate" on ebay which can be used to buy some of my bitcoins:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=300553474425

This is an experiment to gauge demand for purchasing bitcoins on ebay, and whether there are any problems with selling bitcoins this way. If this works further auctions may follow.

Edit: If anybody else wants to try this, here's the image I am using for the gift certificate:

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/6060/certificateg.png

Edit: I just realized that people will be able to buy my gift certificates using CREDIT CARDS. A way to buy bitcoins with credit cards has always been high on many people's wish lists. I hope this works!

45  Other / Off-topic / Forum Membership Levels on: March 18, 2011, 04:07:23 PM
I was wondering, how long am I going to have that embarrassing "Newbie" badge next to my name, since I have been into bitcoins in a big way for awhile now. So I looked it up. I'll be a Newbie until I hit 50 posts. The levels are:

Newbie < 50
Jr. Member < 100
Full Member < 250
Sr. Member < 500
Hero Member >= 500

I wish I could donate 1 BTC to the forum and have my badge changed to "Enthusiast" or something. Oh well. I guess I'll just have to converse more.
46  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Bitcoin API - solved! on: March 09, 2011, 06:04:10 PM
I have a bunch of bitcoin-powered website ideas I would love to work on. I have reasonable PHP/MySQL skills, but I'm not sure what is the best way to interface a website with bitcoin. I poked through the forums and found a couple different ways this might be done, but I'm not sure what is the simplest solution to just get something working.

Options:

1) bitcoind - I think this might be the same as configuring bitcoin to run as server. I believe it uses an RPC API to run transactions from the command line.
Pros: Everything stays on my server
Cons: I have to find a server that will let me compile and install this, rather than just some PHP/MySQL farm in the cloud, which is what I prefer

2) mybitcoin.com "shopping cart interface".
Pros: Seems to do everything I would need
Cons: I don't see anybody talking about using it. (Can anybody tell me how well this works?). Also have to install/compile/run something on my server, rather than just constructing/posting a URL and reading the results, which is what I prefer.

3) mtgox.com API:
Pros: Perfect API model (construct/post a URL, then read the results)
Cons: According to the documentation, I can send bitcoins via the API, but I don't see any way to generate a new address and then query if bitcoins have been received at that address. If I could do that, it would be perfect!

4) Manually parse webpage at mybitcoin.com or mtgox.com
Pros: I know how to do this
Cons: It would take a lot longer, it would be hacky, it would break when the webpage changed, and I'd have to find some way around the captcha at mybitcoin.com if I used that site

What do you guys (who have bitcoin-powered websites) do? If there is a really stupid-simple API to handle bitcoins from my webpage without installing anything, I've missed it.

Any help would be appreciated. I would like to point out that if such an API existed and was widely used/known, the difficulty in creating a new bitcoin-powered site would go down significantly.

Edit:

Thanks for the comments everyone. It looks like what I want doesn't exist yet, so I'll offer a small bounty: 20BTC

Payable to the first online wallet service (new or existing) who provides the world with a URL API something like this:

https://www.coolservice.com?user=dacoinminster&pwd=mypassword&action=spend&address=bitcoin_address_to_send_to&amount=#
(an equivalent one for this already exists at mtgox)

https://www.coolservice.com?user=dacoinminster&pwd=mypassword&action=getnewaddress
(returns new bitcoin address which I can give to a customer)

https://www.coolservice.com?user=dacoinminster&pwd=mypassword&action=seecoins
(returns my BTC balance)

https://www.coolservice.com?user=dacoinminster&pwd=mypassword&action=seecoins&address=bitcoin_address_of_mine
(returns number of BTC sent to that address, and number of confirmations received so far)

https://www.coolservice.com?user=dacoinminster&pwd=mypassword&action=seetransactions
(returns all my transactions ever, with addresses and # of confirmations for each one)

Bounty is only payable if the service is free to everyone. Website must be either already trusted, or must establish a trustworthy reputation. Hopefully others interested in having a service like this will add to my little bounty.

Edit: Problem solved, and bounty expired paid: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4324.msg77187#msg77187
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