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Premise:
We speculate all the time about the price of bitcoin, assuming that when we withdraw our bitcoins they will be worth the same as any other bitcoins, because we expect them to be completely fungible.
I think we all agree that bitcoin should be fungible, but I'm not sure that it's even possible.
Thought experiment:
If Satoshi were to auction off 50 lots of 1.00000000 bitcoin each that would be sent directly from the genesis block, how much do you think they would go for?
Extra credit:
How much if the winners of the auction could meet Satoshi and be in the room when he makes the transaction?
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Sorry to post new topic. I usually just drop random thoughts into the wall observer, but I can no longer keep up with that thread. It has beaten me to the ground, so I ask my question here:
Is a lower price now better for bitcoin in the future?
The lower the price, the more it can stay under the radar. Which means more time while some people try to figure out how to control and regulate (NY DFS says sometime later this year? maybe?)
A lower price simply buys time to further entrench the tenets of bitcoin before the impending attacks.
I think that a period of time similar to the long, painful wait after the first 30 dollar "crash" would be beneficial in the long run. Bitcoin is not ready for prime-time yet, perhaps not for many years.
The idea that a distributed consensus of transactions is a better money system than what we currently have is an idea that is "too big to fail".
The alternative is similar to a boot stomping on a human face, forever.
I welcome your speculative thoughts on what effect a months-long bear market might have for the future of bitcoin.
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-please excuse, this is a cross-post from something I put in another thread, but I thought it deserves it's own. Maybe it belongs in the news section but this kind of thing has major speculative implications and I like it here better  I drove by 3 guys today putting up a Bitcoin Brains sign on 97th street in Edmonton today. Right by the Hope Mission and many other shelters and charities, soup lines etc... I wanted to pull over and ask them what the hell they were doing but there were no parking spots  I drive all over the city for work, I will definitely drop by there soon. When I got home I googled it and found this. http://www.calgaryherald.com/Bitcoin+business+opens+Calgary/9234195/story.htmlNot a mention about the Edmonton shop, from the looks of it the one here is not open for business yet. But what really struck me is that I'm glad the Edmonton one is in one of the most needy areas in town, (although it is pretty much Chinatown for us... maybe Chinese miners?) But I'd much rather see the store there than where that one is in Calgary (looks like a boutique type area, similar to Whyte Ave in Edmonton) Can you imagine the press if you gave all those bums cellphones with wallets that people walking by could drop a few satoshis as they walk by? Can you imagine the profits for this store when all those bums go to cash out? Which leads me to... The Reason I don't want bitcoin to reach $10,000.I feel there is too much focus on the price, and how can we get rich - let's get in bed with the regulators and take this to the moon!. Just listen to this Andreas guy, he's bringing up some points we should be paying more attention to. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYfY7n6sjS4 <-part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sSVVix1EgQ <-part 2 I would love to see it crash like after the 30 dollar bubble, and stay on the down low for some time, but I just can't see that happening at this point. What do you guys think? Is bitcoin going to be co-opted and we continue on with business as usual? Or are we going to see real cultural revolution? *edit* here's the website http://bitcoinbrains.com/ seems legit to me (I'm not even kidding, anyone who has chops in website design, maintenance etc.. you should probably call these guys)
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The numbers and dates are taken very roughly from the 4 hour chart of Gox from bitcoinwisdom. Spoiler alert: stop reading now and make your choice. OK, I was just looking at that 4 hour chart and I'm wondering how many of those recent lows we are about to test. The chart looks kinda sick right now. And then I saw this from FOX http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV1t-YYkCiE ... Anytime I see fox giving a favourable interview or segment, I am very wary. And then the dude drops an obvious "BitCon" at the end (fast-forward to 8:00) and then it really makes me wonder... So what do you think? How low are we gonna go? |
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Just wondering how many think sideways motion is scary, as opposed to how many think it is comforting.
Thank you for your vote.
- and of course, your comments on why you feel this way are appreciated.
(*edit - just thought I should clarify, By "sideways motion" I mean when the exchange price remains within a certain range for a certain amount of time.*)
get your mind out of the gutter
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I thought this thread would already be here when I got home, but I'm curious what the down-low is on these chips. Here's a copy/paste of the email I got a couple hours ago. Avalon ASIC 55nm Chips ready to ship immediately without custom woes. Avalon has once again partnered up with TradeHill to auction off these chips, starting at 24 bitcoins for a 500 reel count, the auction starts immediately and ends on Tuesday Nov, 5th. For those who do not wish to wait can purchase the chips on our site right now for its buy it now price of 30 bitcoins. As per usual, price is due for adjustment at every bitcoin difficulty change. For more details on the specification and datasheet of the chips please visit http://avalon-asics.com/product/a3255-55nm-chip-500-count-reel/people are welcome to request for sample chips before purchasing here http://avalon-asics.com/my-account/sample-chip-request/new ticket system integrated with store. Over the weekend we'll be launching our integrated ticket system for support, no longer would you need to play email tag, trying to match payment and order information across systems, now everything will be at the same place offering comfort and ease of use for both parties. So I create this thread in hopes of getting answers to some questions that come to mind Is everyone gonna just stay away to try to get a lower bid starting point like with the last Avalon auction? Are these chips really compatible with gen 1 design? Who is planning the obligatory "group buy"? (please say MrTeal  ) Has anyone received sample chips to play with? --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=323175.0 -- thanks form! I haven't seen much talk about this at all, but I've been trying to slog through that evil KnC thread so I may have missed it. full disclosure: I actually ordered one of the 60 GH/s units and an extra module for my 3 module batch 2 last friday night and they arrived the following tuesday afternoon, and they work flawlessly and they might just earn their bitcoin back before the end of this year. I realize they may have screwed over many people, but they have never screwed over me (yet) |
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I recently bought this as a hub for 4 little singles and 4 of MrTeal's chili boards. It has a molex connector and 2 usb connectors that go to the extra usb connections on your motherboard. When I plug in the molex and plug in the power supply (have not yet hit the power on the motherboard) the CPU fan starts to spin... Yes, the cpu fan is spinning even when the computer is turned off... Is this dangerous? Or is this not a big deal and it's just the extra power from the molex feeding back through the USB connectors on the motherboard and all will be fine once there are devices connected on the hub? Should I try to simply run it without the molex? I'm really not sure that little singles need a powered hub? I would really appreciate your help. Thank you. |
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I've read a lot of speculation about the 51% attack but a recent bit of FUD made me reconsider. For your consideration: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2u3BNiANVA skip to around 3:40 for the juicy part. Basically he is saying that any entity with roughly 35% of the network could reasonably expect to be able to perform a 51% attack within 7-10 days... I thought this was nuts. no chance. so I went and checked the last 100 transactions at btc guild and boom, 6 blocks in a row (233302-233307 check it yourself) since you can currently spend bitcoin after 6 confirmations, does that mean that creating the last 6 blocks allows you to double-spend? what exactly is required to perform a "51%" attack? |
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I was gonna start this out with a bunch of links to this whole cypress situation, but there are far too many... I figured if you just google:> cypress bank account confiscation <:you can go and look for yourself... My question is, do you think this is the reason for the most recent spike? or is this just a symptom of the greater problem that is causing the prolonged rise in price? |
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(*disclaimer- I'm very late to the game and don't expect to get any ASICs of my own any time soon*) Premise: I expect that the hashrate will increase greatly over the next few months (years?) If I were a 'money-grubbing scumbag' (aren't we all ) then I think I would most likely mine at a pplns (or similar*) pool for the first n days when the hashrate to difficulty ratio is favourable, and then switch to pps towards the end of that difficulty period. My reasoning comes mostly from here The reasoning being: the hashrate will be increasing so quickly that at the tail end of each difficulty period, the actual rewards paid out on pplns* would be much less than those of the pps systems (as I understand it, pps re-calculates their amount per share based on the difficulty that is set at the beginning of each difficulty change). if this is indeed the case, then a miner on a pplns* pool (or a solo miner for that matter) could reasonably expect that he/she would earn the greatest amount of coins at the very beginning of the difficulty change, and much less as the next difficulty change draws near. and, oh yeah, I promised a question... Question:What do you - the pool operators - plan to do about this? Will you simply maintain the status quo? Let the miners do as they will? Does this migration of hash power just become a new kind of pool-hopping? (never really got into pool-hopping myself, maybe this kind of thing is already old news to those that do hop) Bonus suggestion: If I were an ASIC owner, and if I were a lazy bastard (aren't we all ) I would be on the lookout for a "progressive" pps pool. This pool would offer low percentages at the beginning of the difficulty change, and then grow to progressively larger % towards the end ( say, 1% first few days, then 2% for a few days, and so on, until a max of say 5% near the end of the diff. period) I dunno? Stellar idea? or stupid? let me know!
* for the purpose of this thread I am lumping all non-pps payment schemes together and just calling them pplns for simplicity. SMPPS DGM, prop. whatever... I believe the core issue will be the same in all cases, to varying degrees. |
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I would like to start a thread where we could share information about the upcoming ASIC revolution, without the name-calling and bickering. I am simply looking for honest questions, and honest *and unbiased* answers. (or honest, calculated projections or predictions, since concrete answers to many of the most pertinent questions are simply not possible at this time) I'd like to stick to strictly technical questions about ASIC technology. Please direct questions such as "when will it ship?" or whatever to the hardware speculation board. ideally each question would bring differing opinion and spark even more questions, For example: What is the optimal chip placement for the BFL 'little singles'? - - If you could choose any 4 out of the 8 spots, which would you select and why? *my guess for optimal performance would be the 4 closest to the center, but I think you could dissipate heat more easily if you placed chips on the 4 corner positions* if you put 4 small individual copper heatsinks instead of one big one, this would allow direct contact using thermal paste instead of thermal pads in order to deal with the problem of uneven chip height. -- further, you could have a heatpipe for each of the 4 that would connect to a fan-blown radiator similar to the design for the 'single' .. there might even be enough space to mount 4 little waterblocks?! ------------------------------ And, in the spirit of a balanced discussion, also a question about the competition: how difficult would it be for Avalon to switch their current design to a flip-chip? apparently BFL did that whole process in a matter of months... though I would imagine you'd need to re-design the boards I guess?... Any questions, answers, debate, or other productive observations or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. -----edit 2013.02.09 -- link "4 out of the 8 spots" now links directly to full-size image, not the forum post -- link to 'single' removed/redundant |
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disclaimer - I'm always hesitant to start a new thread, but I can't seem to search this forum efficiently, so if this is common knowledge then sorry or whatever.on http://bitcoincharts.com/ right now, the hashrate distribution is showing "unknown" as now having greater than 50% of the total hashrate. I have never before seen any one group reach 50+ percent, and although I don't understand how to execute a double-spend attack, I have heard that it requires controlling more than 50 percent of the network hashrate. what does "unknown" mean? I understand that it's unlikely that all of that "unknown" is a single entity, but it is not impossible. anyone want to clear all this up and allow me to sleep soundly? or should I just sell all my bitcoins right now? |
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am I reading this right? could we maybe go down to 5? (I have heavy buy positions at 5, but sadly, not on mtgox, I don't expect the canadian exchange to go lower than 8 or 9, but I can always hope!  *edit* I guess I should mention, when I say "heavy" I mean half my portfolio... which is roughly $100 lol |
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