[5 criteria]

Hello all,
So I thought I would put together a handy guide to top indicators and how to call the top in this Bitcoin bull run.  Here are my personal 5 criteria that I think are relevant for calling a top.  If Bitcoin satisfies 4 out of 5 of these criteria, I will be comfortable in calling a top.

1. Price of Bitcoin approximately doubles within two weeks.  This is a simple one.  Two weekly candles with a doubling in price from wick to wick is historically a solid indicator that we've hit the top.

2.  Bitcoin dominance falls into the 30-40% range amid a face-melting altcoin rally.  https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/
This happened in 2017 and I do believe it will happen again as retail investors scramble to gobble up anything with a whiff of "crypto" to it.

3. At least one long-term logarithmic target is hit, summed up very well by MasterLuc's latest post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

4. Pi Cycle top indicator crosses.  https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

5. Monthly Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4 for at least one month. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mayer-multiple/

These are my personal favorite ones but feel free to share yours, and enjoy the spoils of this historic bull run my friends!

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

I think it's a really interesting topic, here are some of my assumptions and some questions:

Assumptions:
1.  The trolls (not talking about people like MatTheCat and Tzupy here but NLC, etc.) are either trader(s) or paid by trader(s) to make forum posts in order to increase the profitability of their trading positions.

2.  Constantly making negative posts about Bitcoin and/or hyping other cryptos is a "game theory optimal" strategy to influence weak hands in the market.  If they're in a short position, it could convince some others to sell and increase the profitability of their short.  If they're in a long position, it could convince some others to short/sell and have to close their short or buy back later at a loss.

3. The more trolling, the larger the position these trader(s) have taken, but it could be either short or long.

Questions:
1.  Is this really profitable?  Obviously it must be if it's continued on so long.  There must be a large contingent of small-time "traders" and weak hands that visit this forum and are swayed by the constant and pervasive effects of the trolling.

2.  Who is behind it?  My guess is either one or a small group of relatively sophisticated traders.

Posting this here for future humiliation or exaltation, mid-long term price prediction.  New ATH I think $2-5k, after halving and ETF. 
The flat part in 2016 is a question mark, won't be that flat obviously but relatively stable.

That ~281 data point was exactly what we needed to confirm that the parabolic uptrend has begun.  Think about it... if you don't have corrections like that the whole thing runs out of steam too early.

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?

Hi Bitcoiners,
I'm a classical and flamenco guitar maker based in Upstate NY and now accepting Bitcoin as full payment.  Right now one of my classical guitars would cost about 8 BTC.
If you're in the market (any players out there?), please check out my website and blog for pictures and video of my work as well as contact information.

www.andyculpepper.com
http://andyculpepperguitars.wordpress.com/

Thanks and hope to hear from you!

Andy