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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / AI Coin Development Diary on: April 25, 2014, 09:11:37 PM
[April  13, 2015]

On the advice of our diverse set of financial and regulatory attorneys, we are postponing the launch of AI Coin until such time as we have obtained the necessary money services business licenses in 48 States, and BitLicense or equivalent licenses in jurisdictions requiring them. To go forward without those in place would make our business plan a legal risk.

[October 22, 2014 - I changed the project name to AI Coin. Drew Hingorani is the co-founder and President, I am CTO]

The A.I. Coin project is a multi-year effort to achieve a no-proof-of-work mining implementation in an cryptocurrency that ...

Meets or beats the existing proof-of-work implementation with regard to securing the blockchain against attack.

Provides sub second response time when acknowledging transactions for certain incorporation into the blockchain, in contrast to Satoshi's Bitcoin which only promises best effort which takes more than a second to reach all nodes and takes minutes on average for the first confirmation.

Does not permit double-spending fraud attacks, whereas Satoshi's Bitcoin sometimes does, e.g. the BitUndo service.

Meets or beats the existing implementation with regard to no trusted third parties, as Satoshi's Bitcoin is evolving towards hashers' trust of a single, dominant industrial mining pool.

Preserves to the greatest possible extent, Satoshi's social contract between developers and users.

Specifies how a nomadic mint agent creates new blocks without effort, and allocates block creation rewards to secure the distributed network using conventional data security techniques.

Permits the issuance, relay and blockchain storage of microtransactions having 100x lower fees than Satoshi's Bitcoin.

Explicitly pays for for the creation, ongoing enhancement, and operation, of the enterprise-class, scalable, secure, and robust networking infrastructure that can accommodate all the world's financial transactions. In contrast, the Satoshi Bitcoin full node network consists of mostly unpaid volunteers.

Provides a multi-agent framework upon which human agents and intelligent software agents can be vetted, integrated and paid for skills delivered.

Note that the May 2013 whitepaper below describes a hard fork of bitcoin. That cannot possibly happen unless A.I. Coin is successful and subsequently convinces the Bitcoin community that a good alternative exists for the current industrial mining method. Furthermore, the current approach is not conventional proof-of-stake, rather the block rewards are used to pay for network infrastructure, developers and community support, e. g. through institutions such as the Bitcoin Foundation. It appears that there is no need to pay staking dividends to secure the network.

Whitepaper: Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake Stephen Reed

A hard-fork reconfiguration of the peer to peer Bitcoin network is described that substitutes tamper-evident logs and proof-of-stake consensus for proof-of-work consensus. The block creation rewards and transaction fees are reallocated to establish and staff a secure financial data network capable of handling the world’s transactions with sub-second response time. The new system pays dividends to stake-offering bitcoin holders. In contrast to Satoshi Nakamoto’s mesh network consisting of competing peers, this system uses an enterprise class network that is efficient, robust, and scalable, consisting of cooperating peers. The network backbone nodes host trustless nomadic agents. Thousands of distributed full nodes are paid to replicate a singleton blockchain built upon every 10 minutes by a nomadic mint agent whose actions are verified by its peers. This arrangement enables immediate acknowledgment to an issuing node that its transaction has been accepted. Less effort means that subsidized transaction costs will be lower. Network reconfiguration enables the processing of numerous microtransactions. Stake-weighted distributed consensus is achieved when necessary with less than one-half arbitrarily faulty nodes. Important invariants of the Satoshi Social Contract between core developers and users are maintained: The reward schedule, the blockchain format, the fixed number of bitcoins, and the decentralized, trustless protocol  are untouched. The system remains a global distributed database, with additions to the database by consent of the majority, based on a set of transparent rules they follow.

GitHub: TexaiCognitiveArchitecture
LinkedIn: stephenreed
mobile: 1-512-791-7860

Descriptive posts . . .

Project Development Approach . . .

  • Migrate the Texai cognitive architecture project to a public GitHub repository.
  • Write software agents to sandbox the Bitcoin Core program - bitcoind, demonstrating the smallest possible network.
  • Write additional software agents to complete the verification of peers, migration of responsibilities, and network operations.

Reading List, the current situation . . .

Reading List, suggested improvements to the Bitcoin network . . .

Reading List, the incumbent competition . . .

Reading List, proof-of-stake . . .

Reading List, misc altcoin ideas . . .

Reading List, global networking . . .

  • Global Networks: Engineering, Operations and Design, G. Keith Cambron

Reading List, super-peer network introduction . . .

Reading List, super-peer network service discovery . . .

Reading List, network security and fault tolerance . . .

Texai Cognitive Architecture

Developer bookmarks . . .

GitHub & SourceForge Developer bookmarks . . .

2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Annual 10% bitcoin dividends if mining were Proof-of-Stake on: April 23, 2014, 03:46:49 PM
The Bitcoin Economy will pay miners over $500 million in 2014 to maintain the blockchain and to secure the network. Proof-Of-Work miners have large expenses that subtract from their profit.

If Bitcoin had Proof-Of-Stake today and that was the only change, then network-attached, blockchain-maintaining holders would receive an average 10% annual dividend on their holdings. If only half of holdings were exposed to the network, then the annual dividend would be 20%. Ordinary computers suffice.

[update April 27, 2014]

The Bitcoin Proof-of-Stake project thread is . A descriptive post there is . . . .
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Scrypt-N coins dominating the Coinwarz chart on: April 02, 2014, 04:53:16 PM
I currently lease my GPU rigs to scrypt miners, but have been considering Scrypt-N because of the competing ASIC rigs expected this year.

Its interesting that in recent days, scrypt-N coins have been dominating the Coinwarz profitability chart, when I enter Scrypt-N hashing rate that corresponds to what has been reported for my type of GPU cards.

4  Economy / Reputation / Slippery Slope's Rig Leasing Reputation on: February 26, 2014, 02:47:05 PM
Hi everyone. This is my reputation thread where you can review and post feedback about my mining rigs available at These dedicated rigs are automatically monitored to ensure hashing rate, and are cared for by me full-time. What you do with a leased rig is private - I do not compete with you.

Rig descriptions

SS1 - 6 x 5770 graphic cards yielding 0.98 MHs with less than 1% reject rate. This rig automatically reboots to your chosen pool should any graphic card fail to generate an accepted share in 30 minutes.

SS2 - 3 x R9 280x graphic cards yielding 2.10 MHs with less than 1% reject rate. 10 minute accepted share timeout for auto reboot.

SS5 - 1 x R9 280x graphic card yielding 0.70 MHs with less than 1% reject rate. 10 minute accepted share timeout for auto reboot.

5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / I dream of a day where useless fiat is burned to create electricity for bitcoin on: December 12, 2013, 03:52:04 PM
A transient post on Reddit r/bitcoin consisted only of this prophesy.

I dream of a day where useless fiat is burned to create electricity for bitcoin

Envision a possible world in which the legacy archaic financial infrastructure has been swept aside. In such a world fiat would be worth only the paper it is printed on.

This is a call for disruptive innovative action.
6  Economy / Economics / Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model on: December 10, 2013, 08:25:12 PM
A logistic model of bitcoin adoption by speculators predicts that exponential growth will eventually end.

Here is the widely used general model . , ,

In this multi-year thread I will update and monitor a particular model that assumes a million dollar maximum bitcoin price. I chose a high price because plausible arguments can be made that bitcoin will eventually replace fiat currency worldwide.

I use the MtGox price series through 2011 and Bitstamp prices thereafter as the input data. The logistic trendline passes through the earliest recorded bitcoin price, and is subsequently hand-fit to the remainder of the price series in November, 2013.

I simply guessed at the maximum bitcoin price. Periodic review will determine when the rapid exponential growth of bitcoin stops. Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth.

The below chart is plotted with a log price axis . . .

Here is the same logistic model using a linear price axis . . .

Log10 delta from the trend . . .

The entire spreadsheet of data and analysis is published here and is updated daily.

Whatever price one selects for the maximum, the slope of the exponential portion of the log-S-Curve is the same - as I discovered when I performed sensitivity analysis on the model. Accordingly, the rate of growth that we have so far witnessed will continue at the same breathtaking acceleration until it inevitably begins to rapidly taper off.

Your modeler - Stephen Reed

I dedicate this thread to long term bitcoin holders, and to the author of this classic forum post from June 2011, at a time when bitcoin was priced at $13 - having risen 260x from $0.05 only a year before. ...

I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Here are the thread music video themes . . .

Zhou Tonged - Holding (Billy Joel - The Longest Time)
"The sky's the limit, and I'm in it to win it".

Laura Saggers - 10,000 Bitcoins
"Its having someone to share the dream, I'm so glad you share yours with me"

Here is the thread destination image . . .

To The Moon !!!

Stephen Reed's Relevant posts . . .

Notable conversations started by others . . .

Memorable quotes by others . . .

No financial planner would have my goals.  If they did, they would be institutionalized.  Also, I can't afford to hire anyone smarter than me, and I won't hire anyone dumber than me.  

(editor: Hal Finney's prescient reply to Satoshi Nakamoto's announcement back in 2009 - the very beginning . . .)

Quote from: Hal Finney
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

If the projection is correct my miniature Bitcoin holding will no longer be so miniature. LOL.

I assure you, nothing resists corruption.

There is already ample evidence of corruption in Bitcoin, both in the early days and now.

(editor: SWIFT is the 2000+ employee firm managing existing bank transfers in 212 countries)

Re: 'SWIFT' -- could adopt Bitcoin and campaign with 'All the money in the world handled by all the nodes in the world'.

In 1982 there were only 12 billionaires.   In 2000 there were about 300.   And now 1,500.   So in 2025 maybe 10,000+ billionaires.  Smiley

Leadership from Bitcoin, innovation from the Altcoins. I wonder what consolidation among coins will look like? I hope enthusiasts discover methods of gracefully merging those deserving more than abandonment. Nothing sadder than pulling up a QT wallet and finding no peers.

I still think you're kinda nuts, but it's fun to keep dreaming with you during this fun ride, up, down, up, down... Wink

You can manipulate charts/lines almost anyway you want to make a point.  I'm not saying you specifically are doing this, but you are certainly "reaching" a bit.

TA practitioners and sages eventually all suffer from Apophenia. They can't even help themselves at some point, they will chart a cockroach running up a wall to  look for patterns.

Technical analysis is always trumped by fundamentals over the long run.

Start with an anti-fragile base and build on top of it. Just like Microsoft has chosen to stop supporting WindowsXP on April 8th, Bitcoin developers can dump the old code and build from the ground up with the goal of lasting more than 27 years.

Bitcoin works at the core so enforcers can concentrate on the edges.

I believe the more the law understands bitcoin the more they will work to support it. Bitcoin benefits everyone but the sharks.
7  Economy / Speculation / Please someone tell me how to trade this great bubble on: November 18, 2013, 08:28:19 PM
I am planning on simply buying more coins after the collapse.

But if I wanted more risk - I think some sort of spread. What do you think?  [edited the typo -  Smiley]

8  Economy / Speculation / November 2013 Bubble Analysis on: November 18, 2013, 02:30:11 AM
Here are my thoughts regarding the November 2013 bitcoin bubble.

To the extent that comparing the two previous bubbles with this one is useful, here is a comparison with regard to price doubling times, using MtGox USD data.

**** Bitcoin Bubble 1 peak occurred June 8, 2011 ****

The way up ...
 0.498 January 31, 2011
 0.997 April 15 2011 - doubling time 74 days
 1.99 April 28, 2011 - doubling time 13 days
 3.98 May 10, 2011 - doubling time 12 days
 7.97 May 13, 2011 - doubling time 3 days
15.95 June 4, 2011 - doubling time 22 days
31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011 - doubling time 4 days

**** Bitcoin Bubble 2 peak occurred April 10, 2013  ****

The way up ...
   4.16 December 19, 2011
   8.31 July 16, 2012 - doubling time 210 days
  16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days
  33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days
  66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days
 133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days
 266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days

**** Current Bitcoin Bubble 3 ****

The way up ...
  65.42 July 4, 2013
 130.84 August 29, 2013 - doubling time 56 days
 261.68 November 5, 2013 - doubling time 68 days
 523.36 November 16, 2013 - doubling time 11 days

If the pattern of the two previous bubbles holds, we might expect one more doubling with the peak very roughly around $1000. Likewise we might expect to see the peak next week, doubling from 523.36 in perhaps only 7 days.

Major posts in this thread ...

Your thoughts?
9  Economy / Speculation / Alert - Perhaps the first, and largest, capitulation is at hand on: May 01, 2013, 06:35:21 PM

The technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect.

This expected capitulation is not the bottom.
10  Economy / Speculation / SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal on: April 12, 2013, 07:18:26 PM
[edited to add new posts and to reflect current events]

My principal comments regarding the collapse of April 10, 2013 bubble.

Here [was] the [intermediate] term bear case in a nutshell ...

  • There will be no more enticing and greed-inducing news stories from the media. Now the benchmark is the crash and how speculators lost so much.
  • Investor sentiment, especially new investor sentiment has reversed. Impatience to buy has been replaced by caution
  • What is the correct valuation of fiat/bitcoin given what we know now? Certainly while the price doubled four times from January, the bitcoin economy did not do as well in percentage growth. Correct valuation depends then mostly on just how much of the run up since January is emotion, e.g. greed.
  • If the downtrend continues, then coin holders are tempted to sell coin expecting to buy back for less fiat.

It happened, so now let's discuss ...

Question 1: what is the expected duration of the down trend? My rough guess as argued here is until September 2013.

Question 2: how far down does the trend go? As of May 8, I believe that this bubble will collapse down to a price greater than the high of the previous bubble, e.g. above $32, and lower than the lowest low after the peak so far, i.e. $50. Because bubbles collapse to a price lower than most expect, the bottom could be below $32.

Bitcoin Bubble 1 Peaked June 8, 2011

Bitcoin Bubble 2 Peaked April 10, 2013

Rather than behaving like the 2011 bubble collapse, the April 2013 bubble collapse appears to be a damped oscillation resolved to a price 9x higher than when the bubble began. Continued sideways price movement for the remainder of 2013 would allow the long term price trend to catch up.

When the next big bitcoin bubble arrives, probably in 2014-15, I plan to trade on the expectation that the bubble collapse will be a damped oscillation, featuring several very large price swings.
11  Economy / Speculation / MtGox volatility up ... does it feel like the very beginning of the bubble? on: February 28, 2013, 05:59:07 PM
As a legacy CPU bitcoin miner, I watched the whole bubble #1 back in June 2011. The recent breakthrough new high is accompanied by increased volume and volatility. A few more media stories are coming out -and the bitcoin economy indicators are continuing exponential growth, albeit from a minuscule base.

I think that we are in the first 20% range of the next bubble - sort of the hills from which we can see the foothills, and from where can see the mountains. Like that, right?
12  Economy / Speculation / New all time high beats 31.91 back in June 8, 2011 on: February 28, 2013, 12:43:31 AM
13  Economy / Speculation / Banging on the door to a new high on: February 28, 2013, 12:28:36 AM
Just watching and listening to the wonderful Clark Moody realtime chart as BTC at MtGox approaches the all-time high of 31.91. The web-app has a default beep when a trade at or over 10 BTC occurs. Such a lovely melody.

Anyone care to comment who is watching? There is a big ask order of $117,606 at 31.89. Likewise very large buy orders have appeared. This is very dramatic - like watching financial battle bots!
14  Economy / Speculation / Is the rally train leaving the station at $14? on: July 25, 2011, 03:27:42 PM
I sold my 12 month hoard of bitcoins at 15.5 on the way down as the bitcoin bubble deflated.  In the past week, the price trend has stopped declining, and a couple of large purchases have not been countered by like sales.

This morning I bought back in via small lots at about 14.1.  And I've stopped selling my daily mined bitcoins.

Is the bubble deflated and the rally train leaving the station, or do you guys see more bubble deflation ahead?
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / Is the Mt Gox POST API working? [SOLVED] on: June 29, 2011, 06:49:56 PM
I am developing a Java API for Mt Gox.  I have the GET methods working fine, i.e.

Ticker Data:

But I get {"error":"Must be logged in"} when testing from Java.  I can see all the details of the HTTPS communication using the curl utility on linux, which gets the same error message ...

curl -v -k --referer --cookie-jar cookies.txt

curl -v -k --referer --cookie cookies.txt --cookie-jar cookies.txt  --data-urlencode "name=XXX&pass=YYY" -H "Accept: application/json"

The first curl command gets the Mt Gox ticker OK, Note that the SESSION_ID from the ticker GET is sent back to the Mt Gox server with the subsequent POST via curl's cookie options. The second curl command responds with the above mentioned error.

I may have to resort to screen scraping the Mt Gox web pages, i.e. pretending to be a web browser if I cannot get the Mt Gox trading API to work for POSTs.

Any help would be appreciated, - if you do not know how your script works, just knowing that someone has a working script to obtain Mt Gox balances would be useful.
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