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1  Economy / Speculation / Warning to the bulls... on: December 31, 2011, 01:04:06 AM
I posted these charts in another thread, but thought I might as well go ahead and create a new home for them. I have been collecting data on the order book depth on MtGox, in addition to actual trading activity, since around the 14th of December and I have created a few historical charts that might be of interest to some of the traders here. I am not trying to spread FUD, I am trying to provide data. Make of it what you will.



This graph shows the total bitcoin supply in red, adjusted to fit on the scale of the mtgox supply figures in blue. This chart shows a significant divergence between the total available supply, and the total actual supply visible on mtgox's order books. As you can see, the gap has just today started to close. What this indicates to me is that a significant amount of the mined coins have been held over the past few weeks, and a correction is overdue... but on it's way.



These charts show the historical total aggregate demand in dollars as well as the total mtgox supply.



These charts show the daily change in both supply (figures in btc) and demand (figures in $).

Trade volume activity (collected since the 21st):

21/12/2011 15:53 - Bid (buy) Volume: $92607, Ask (sell) Volume: $108854 => Net $16,247 sell
22/12/2011 23:58 - Bid (buy) Volume: $83754, Ask (sell) Volume:  $188171 => Net $104,417 sell
24/12/2011 11:52 - Bid (buy) Volume: $124414, Ask (sell) Volume: $159448 => Net $35,034 sell
25/12/2011 16:00 - Bid (buy) Volume: $116765, Ask (sell) Volume: $143122 => Net $26,357 sell
26/12/2011 13:30 - Bid (buy) Volume: $134398, Ask (sell) Volume: $188173 => Net $53,775 sell
27/12/2011 23:59 - Bid (buy) Volume: $166066, Ask (sell) Volume: $193020 => Net $26,954 sell
28/12/2011 05:45 - Bid (buy) Volume: $174779, Ask (sell) Volume: $198527 => Net $23,748 sell
29/12/2011 21:20 - Bid (buy) Volume: $203902, Ask (sell) Volume: $228877 => Net $24,975 sell
30/12/2011 23:59 - Bid (buy) Volume: $203871, Ask (sell) Volume: $334398 => Net $130,527 sell

From the data above, you can see that over the past 10 days there has been a net selling activity of $442,034, yet somehow the price has stayed at roughly the same level. There has not been one single day where the buy volume in dollars has exceeded the selling volume in dollars.

To me, this is a stark indication of profit taking. In addition, there is significant market manipulation going on keeping the price artificially afloat in order to take more and more money from buyers. Despite all the selling, it was all followed by low volume rebuys occurring right after the sales in order for the big players to 'cover their tracks' if you will.

This stinks of an impending fall back to lower price levels, because you can only mislead bulls for so long before they either run out of money or rationality kicks back in.

Take this data for what you will, but I think it speaks for itself. I have no idea what way the price is going to go right now, but considering the fact that the MCAD is showing 39 days of positive price divergence, and the RSI has been >70 for 12 days, I know which direction I am betting on.

Make sure you get yourself onto the right side of the market soon.
2  Economy / Economics / Keynes vs Hayek on: December 13, 2011, 09:25:41 AM
The fight continues...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc&NR

 Grin
3  Economy / Speculation / MtGoxLive Trouble? on: December 03, 2011, 11:42:39 PM
Is anyone else having problems viewing MtGoxLive right now?
The price information is not updating properly, but the orders on the bid and ask side seem to be fine.
Damnit! Right when you need realtime information the most!
4  Economy / Speculation / 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 12:59:46 AM
 Shocked

Well, it looks as though the hopes of those elusive $1.xx coins have been well and truly dashed.
This is going to make for an interesting night!
5  Economy / Speculation / Are you trading for FIAT or BTC profit? on: November 19, 2011, 04:24:54 PM
I'm trying to get a feel for why people are day trading bitcoin. So the question is simple - are you trading primarily to profit in coins, fiat or to hedge the fiat value of your original bitcoin investment?

I personally am trading solely to profit in bitcoin. I started originally with the intention of hedging the value of my earnings, but have given up on that. Why? If I wanted to retain fiat purchasing power, I would simply cash out immediately as soon as I received payments and never buy back, or else accept payment only in fiat.

I couldn't care less how much my coins are currently worth in fiat, as long selling at any price will yield more coins for me in the future.
6  Economy / Services / 4btc Bounty - New Logo for BitCoinTorrentz.com on: November 05, 2011, 02:25:16 PM
I'm offering a 4 btc bounty for a new logo for BitCoinTorrentz.com.

I'm rubbish at this sort of thing, and want something kind of web-2.0 looking, that fits in with the current style of the site - which admittedly looks rather non web-2.0. LOL. Draw on bitcoin and bittorrent related themes. It's not much to go on, I know - thats why I'm paying for someone else's creativity Cheesy

The current logo is:



Dimensions: 324 69 px.
The height has to be 69px but there is some give on the width.
Preferably around the 300-350px range, but smaller width's are acceptable if you can make it look good.

I need an adobe photoshop image file, or any other vector format that photoshop can open, with all the objects and layers intact (i.e. not flattened).

Please post draft png/jpg's here along with your bitcoin address, or PM me in private.
Feel free to watermark the drafts if you like, fill the background with the same shade of green in the logo above for ease of comparison.

I will send payment of 4btc to the creator of the logo of my choosing, in return for:
1) the photoshop file
2) an unwatermarked png rendering with height 69px
3) any custom fonts you used in the draft

I will probably wait for a few submissions before I decide, but I may decide early if I am drawn to a particular logo.
Just want to add also that I reserve the right not to pick any if I do not find one appropriate for the site.

Thanks a lot
7  Economy / Economics / A Stable Bitcoin Exchange Service on: October 20, 2011, 09:36:03 AM
First off, I want to say that I am not an economist so I don't know if what I am going to suggest is viable, but hopefully it will get some discussion started to improve the marketplace for the better.

The big problem as I see it is the extreme volatility of the exchange rate due to it being a very thinly traded market. This volatility is a major problem in conducting business with the currency, as it may lose a significant portion of it's value soon after you buy it. At the moment we have a handful of "reliable" exchanges where the rate is determined in an irrational and speculative way that is open to manipulation by those with excessive purchasing power. This irrational price in fiat currency then becomes the standard "value" many of us attribute to a bitcoin, and make poor buy/sell decisions based on this uncertain information.

Do you think it would change people's behavior for the better if they were guaranteed to be able to sell back any bitcoin they buy for the same price they paid? This ensures that they do not lose any fiat value from the irrational swings in the floating market, giving people a safety net in case the floating price of coin tanks. I think this would cause a paradigm shift in the minds of many. So how to achieve this? Here are my thoughts...

We could conceivably create a not-for-profit exchange that would set a fixed price per bitcoin, well above the floating market rate. This exchange would sell 1 bitcoin at a static price in fiat currency, lets say an arbitrary $3, and charge a small fixed fee to cover expenses. Now, any users who buy bitcoin from this exchange for $3 are guaranteed to be able to sell the coin back to the exchanger for $3 in the future, no more and no less than the exact price they paid for the coin. To do this, the exchange would keep in reserve 100% of all funds. Essentially, we need to create a exchange reserve.

Users of the exchange would only be able to sell as many bitcoins for $3 as they have purchased from the service. So if I have bought 10 coins for $3 each, I am guaranteed to be able to sell 10 back again for $3, by means of issuing guarantee-credits along with the bitcoin. If you want to buy bitcoin to exchange for goods/services, you could also transfer these $3-guarantee-credits along with your purchased bitcoin to the business that you are buying goods/services from so that they could then be guaranteed to sell them for $3. This process could be automated by creating a merchant API.

Price stability AND a merchant API ensures no loss in value, and makes bitcoin much more attractive for new business to adopt.

Once you have exhausted your guaranteed-credits balance, you would not be able to sell any more coins for the fixed price until you buy some more coin from the exchange. If you already have coin, you can simply deposit it with the exchange, and when you want to send coin to a business using the API you would have to pay the difference between market-value and the fixed price to obtain guarantee-credits.

Users are of course free to sell any purchased coins for more if they become more valuable on another exchange. This guarantees people are able to take any appreciation value, but guaranteed not to LOSE any. The static price would obviously be reviewed upwards if the floating value of a bitcoin exceeds the price charged by the not-for-profit exchange.

Any thoughts?
8  Economy / Trading Discussion / Bitcoin7 not answering emails! on: September 17, 2011, 12:45:14 AM
Last week I made a deposit of over 600 euro to bitcoin7's european bank account in hungary (KDB bank). I am within the SEPA zone, so these transfers should take between 2-5 days to complete. It has almost been 7 days now, and I have not had any response from bitcoin7 with regards to my deposit.

I was wondering how long it normally takes bitcoin7 to fund your exchange account? I sent them an email 2 days ago to inquire about the status of my deposit, but have not had any response from them so far.

This is highly unprofessional service.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / AVG thinks Bitcoin is a Virus!! on: September 13, 2011, 12:32:51 PM
I just ran a complete system scan on my server using AVG business edition, and something surprising popped up. It detected a virus in the bitcoin.exe client program and quarantined it. The virus it claims to be infected with is some kind of trojan horse:

Quote from: AVG
Trojan horse Generic24.BZCM

This is probably a false positive however, considering the "generic" bit of the virus name, so I am not worried about it. I was just wondering if anyone out there has had the same experience with their antivirus apps thinking bitcoin is a virus.

How should we deal with this? Would it be a matter of contacting AVG so they can modify this in their definition updates? This really is not good if we hope to grow the bitcoin economy. People new to bitcoin will be sceptical it if their AV's tell them the client is a trojan!
10  Economy / Services / BitCoinTorrentz.com - Torrent Download Service on: September 09, 2011, 03:03:29 PM


Introducing BitCoinTorrentz.com, a high-speed, fully automated and 100% annonymous remote torrent downloading service.
You can find us at: BitCoinTorrentz.com

NOTE: We are trading on GLBSE, ticker symbol BitCoinTorrentz

What is BitCoinTorrentz.com
This website provides a remote torrent downloading service to it's users in exchange for payment in BitCoin. The cost is calculated based on the size of the file you wish to download. We charge a modest fee of 0.08 BTC/GB (but offer up to 50% discount - see below).

I would appreciate if anyone out there could try it out - it's really quick - and reply with any feedback you might have on the service, how it could be improved, or indeed any criticism. All comments are welcome.
 
How it Works
BitCoinTorrentz.com will download any torrent of your choice at lightning speed. Our servers can download torrents at speeds up to 100x that of a regular, home broadband connection. So your torrent will be ready for download/streaming in a matter of minutes in most cases.
 
You can either upload a .torrent file directly to our servers, or enter the url of a direct link to a .torrent file from your tracker's website. We analyze the torrent, and calculate it's total size and some other information. Once you confirm the torrent it will begin to download immediately, and you will be given a unique link that you can use to monitor the status of the download.

100% Anonymity
We place great value on the privacy of our users, and therefore pledge to provide a 100% anonymous service. No information is logged to our servers that could be used to identify you. All torrents are securely deleted after 3 days, and our service does not log IP traffic.
 
How you get the files
Once the torrent has completed, we provide a direct http download link to the files. You can then download the contents of the torrent using your browser, download manager, or ftp client (ftp access currently on-request only).
 
For those with slow connections, you also have the option of streaming the file directly to your media player with no loss of quality, as long as your connection is even somewhat ok. This means that if you have a slow connection, and you don't want to wait for a large torrent to fully download before you can watch it... you don't have to!

How much does it cost?
It's relatively inexpensive! The cost is calculated based on the size of the torrent you wish to download, at a rate of 0.08 BTC per GB. But if you want to know the exact cost of a particular torrent, just upload it and the exact price will be displayed.

If you register anonymously with the site, you will receive an instant 20% discount on the regular fee. For each 20gb that you download, you will receive an additional 10% reduction of your current fee. The maximum discount is 50% of the regular rate (i.e. 0.04 btc/gb).

Feedback and Support
If you have any questions, comments, queries or qualms... please do not hesitate to contact us. You can send us an email via the contact form on our website.
11  Economy / Marketplace / [ANNOUNCEMENT] BitCoinTorrentz.com - Investors Welcome on: September 05, 2011, 04:16:13 AM


Introducing BitCoinTorrentz.com, a high-speed, fully automated and 100% annonymous remote torrent downloading service.
You can find us at: BitCoinTorrentz.com

What is BitCoinTorrentz.com
Remote torrent downloading would be extremely useful to those who are stuck behind proxy servers, have ports blocked, get slow download speeds, suffer from ISP torrent traffic shaping, living in college dorms or using public computer networks, or simply those who value anonymity online!

This site is extremely new, and I would appreciate if anyone out there could try it out - it's really cheap - and reply with any feedback you might have on the service, how it could be improved, or indeed any criticism. All comments are welcome.
 
How it Works
BitCoinTorrentz.com will download any torrent of your choice at lightning speed. Our servers can download torrents at speeds up to 100x that of a regular, home broadband connection. So your torrent will be ready for download/streaming in a matter of minutes in most cases.
 
You can either upload a .torrent file directly to our servers, or enter the url of a direct link to a .torrent file from your tracker's website. We analyze the torrent, and calculate it's total size and some other information. Once you confirm the torrent it will begin to download immediately, and you will be given a unique link that you can use to monitor the status of the download.

100% Anonymity
We place great value on the privacy of our users, and therefore pledge to provide a 100% anonymous service. No information is logged to our servers that could be used to identify you. All torrents are securely deleted after 7 days, and our service does not log IP traffic.
 
How you get the files
Once the torrent has completed, we provide a direct http download link to the files. You can then download the contents of the torrent using your browser, download manager, or ftp client (ftp access currently on-request only).
 
For those with slow connections, you also have the option of streaming the file directly to your media player with no loss of quality, as long as your connection is even somewhat ok. This means that if you have a slow connection, and you don't want to wait for a large torrent to fully download before you can watch it... you don't have to!

Referral System
The best method of advertising is by word of mouth, so we have put in place referral program that rewards you with a percentage of the revenue generated by users you bring to the site. The amount you earn depends on the number of people you successfully refer to this service.

You will receive 20% of all earnings generated from your referees. You can request a payout at any time, there are no arbitrary limits that you must exceed in order for us to release your funds. All payments will be processed within 24-48 hours of your request.

To get started, simply sign up to get your customized referral link. It is 100% free to register. From the control panel, you can view detailed statistics on your referral activity, including the number of hits you have brought to the site, the number of downloads your referees have successfully completed, as well as your total earnings.

How much does it cost?
It's relatively inexpensive! The cost is calculated based on the size of the torrent you wish to download, at a rate of 0.1BTC per GB. But if you want to know the exact cost of a particular torrent, just upload it and the exact price will be displayed. Here are some approximate prices:

  • 100 mb = 0.01 BTC
  • 500 mb = 0.05 BTC
  • 1 GB = 0.1 BTC
  • 5 GB = 0.5 BTC
  • 10 GB = 1 BTC

Feedback and Support
If you have any questions, comments, queries or qualms... please do not hesitate to contact us. You can reply in this thread, or send us an email via the contact form on our website. Thank you for your time.
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