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1  Economy / Speculation / Anecdote from Thanksgiving day meal.... on: November 29, 2013, 07:47:26 PM
So yesterday was the US Thanksgiving day holiday...  spent it with the extended family.. and as always table conversation tended towards politics and money...

well, I'll skip the politics part...

My mom already knows I have these weird computers in my basement that do something with bitcoins... so that brought the conversation around when she asked me about how that was going...  

Long story short... my brother-in-law is one of these "gotta have the latest tech/gadget" junkies and he had never before heard of bitcoin.   If HE hasn't heard of them yet, then there is no way we have even begun penetration into the general population...  

Anyone else have any interesting turkey-day anecdotes?

Sigg
2  Economy / Speculation / " Life Altering " ......? on: November 29, 2013, 04:04:56 PM
Ok... so the general consensus around here is basically:  Don't sell till it will be life altering...

I've been pondering this... just what would I consider "life altering" ...  and for the life of me, I can't nail it down to a single point....  the best I can come up with is a couple different, non-exclusive life altering points:

1)  sell enough BTC to  pay off the mortgage and all debts.  At this point, I can tell my boss to shove it, and still maintain my lifestyle on just about any other job...  Walmart greeter comes to mind...   Just the psychological value of "debt free" and "I don't need THIS job" would be, in my opinion, life altering.

I'd call this "comfortable"

2) 2.5 million USD in BTC....  This is definitely life altering, as at this point, I don't need _ANY_ job.  I can retire, maintain my lifestyle, and even take a couple vacations per year.  And as the above, the psych value of knowing you'll never have to say "yes sir" to a boss ever again...  very life altering.

I'd call this one "moderately wealthy"

3) 15 million USD in BTC ...  Mansion, Yacht, Strippers, Blow ...  umm..yeah...  that would qualify as life altering.

umm... "very wealthy"

4) 50 million + ...  Money really looses its meaning at this point.. I can't grok what my life would be like at this level...

"Ultra wealthy / Elite"


Note, if done right, one could cash out a portion at each level.  So as stated above, none of these are mutually exclusive..... (of course at 4, and possibly even 3, "cash out" is meaningless as anything you want will be priced in BTC anyways...

Due to the rise in value, I think a lot of us are going to have to start thinking about the above as we exit the accumulation phase of our BTC investments...

Just wondering what everyone else thinks would be a worthwhile "life altering" level to start cashing out?

Regards,
Sigg
3  Bitcoin / Mining support / CGMINER, 7950, XP .. is this combination possible? on: June 05, 2013, 02:19:29 PM
Has anyone been able to mine on XP with a 7950 and CGMINER?   

What Driver/SDK combinations work?

I spent all last night downloading and trying all the various driver & SDK versions and keep getting the no GPU avaliable when I start CGMINER... 

I never had these problems with my 5xxx & 6xxx cards  Undecided

If this isn't possible, can someone point me to a guide on how to set up mining on linux? 

Thanks,
Sigg
4  Economy / Lending / USD$ loans collateralized by BTC ??? on: March 26, 2013, 07:18:29 PM
Are there any sites/banks that will take BTC as collateral for USD loans?   (I'm thinking something like maybe Prosper, but accepting collateral?)

Basically, I've got a significant amount of BTC, but am wanting USD in the short term.  With the way the exchange rate has been going, I'm loathe to sell BTC at the risk of having to buy it back at a 50% premium 3 months from now.   I'd much rather just use it as collateral for a USD loan ( at a non-loan-shark interest rate ) and pay back the USD.

Siggy

5  Bitcoin / Hardware / Running some ASIC numbers... on: February 07, 2013, 07:38:29 PM
Just running some numbers here..
 
Avalon batch 1:  20 Thash
Avalon batch 2:  40 Thash
Avalon tradins:   20 Thash (trade ins are not part of batch 2.)
 
Total Avalon by May:  80 Thash
 
BFL --  with the pictures that were recently posted of the BFL (non-asic-populated) boards, I'm now in the camp that I believe BFL will be shipping a product that at least comes close to their stated goals of 7.5 Ghash per chip.  Having said that, I've seen batch numbers ranging from 15K chips to 100K chips..  At this point the most plausible I've seen are an initial batch of 15K, followed closely by another 15K followed by a 35K batch...  Going with a gut feeling partially based on all the BFL adds I'm seeing, and how active their forums are, I'm thinking they have all 3 batches sold.  So, allowing for some defects, and rounding I'm guessing:
 
BFL batch 1:  100 Thash
BFL batch 2:  100 Thash
BFL batch 3:  220 Thash
 
Total BFL by may:  420 Thash
 
Soo..  the way I see it, there is already 500 Thash of existing paid for pre-orders.   Factoring in existing FPGA's, free electric GPU's, Goliath, other ASICs, aliens from Omnicron, and what-not, it looks to me like if you were to order an ASIC right now, the difficulty would be at least 75MM by the time you got it.  
 
Using the profitability calculator over at bitcoinx.. and figuring another 4x rise in difficulty over the following year, I get a ROI of 250 days..  and a net profit over 2 years of around $500.  
 
Figuring only a doubling in difficulty for each subsequent year gives a 190 day ROI and a 2 year profit of $1750.  
 
Now, the question is:  After the pre-orders are all filled, will the ASIC vendors reign in production (only 2x)? or will they keep pumping out units (4x plus)?    I'm leaning towards thinking they'll keep pumping them out, even if that means they have to lower the prices to do it....
 
Going with that 250 day ROI.. In just about every other business in existence, a 250 day ROI would be absolutely orgasmic...  Whats different about this?  Well, one must keep in mind that mining returns are not linear (unlike most other businesses).. The vast majority of your returns will be front loaded.  If you assume that the ASIC companies will do what it takes (lower prices) to keep selling units, your residual income after you hit ROI is going to be minimal.
 
Conclusion:  I haven't already ordered an ASIC, I'd be better off just buying bitcoins instead.  
 
Note:  I purposefully did not factor in the possibility of BTC gaining in value vs. $$.  I figure that any such gain (or loss) would be offset 1:1 when comparing mining BTC vs. outright buying BTC.

Now, what am I missing?
 
Sigg
6  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Longer PCIe cables on: April 02, 2012, 04:02:46 PM
Hi all,

Does anyone know where you can buy "longer" PCIe 1x-16x or 16x-16x cables?  All the ones I can find on ebay / cablesrus are only about 20 cm long.  I'm looking for something about 40 cm.

I remember reading a post a while ago where a forum member had some longer ones for sale.  I've spent the last hour searching forums on here and can't seem to find it.  Hoping someone can point me in the right direction.

thanks,
Sigg.
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