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1  Economy / Service Announcements / [ANN] Swapman's FREE 1Broker Trader Application for Windows - C# .NET on: March 17, 2016, 05:09:35 PM
Excited to announce this new project, rewritten code from an old API Trader I wrote and made this one.

See web here: http://austeritysucks.com/1broker-trading-app-api.html



* What is 1Broker?
* Features
* Install App!
* Questions/Concerns?


What is 1Broker?

1Broker is a site that has been operating since 2012 which is purely bitcoin based and offers Contract for Differences (CFDs). You deposit your bitcoins and then you can use those BTC to leverage and take positions in various Forex pairs, commodities like gold and oil, stocks like Tesla and Google, and even Crypocurrency like BTCUSD.

The most powerful feature of 1Broker is the leverage that they offer, up to 200x on FX pairs, up to 20x on commodities and gold, and 5x on BTCUSD. You pay interest for this leverage, of course, in addition to the spread that 1Broker offers. There is no orderbook for you to make bids and offers into, because 1Broker takes the other side of your trades.

Despite being anonymously owned and offering no KYC/AML, it has a track record of NEVER being hacked and always making good on issues with customers on the service. They have a stellar reputation, which as made me glad to write an app in Windows that utilizes it.

If you don't have an account at 1Broker yet, sign up first (referral link).



Features

* Trailing stop on positions! Never close too early, set dynamic stop-loss which adjusts as you go further into profit.
* Mass close positions, multiple at a time.
* Mass close orders, multiple at a time.
* Full functionality of API for retrieving new pairs etc.
* 100% Free

Install

Get up and running in less than 5 minutes after you have your 1Broker account set up.
Follow these three basic steps and you'll be trading the global markets with bitcoin on the Windows Trading App in no time:
Step 1: Download and check integrity of the App:

http://austeritysucks.com/swapman1brokertraderv1.0.zip


Download here Verify the SHA-256 hash: 54B70B6AC755E64361EE45ACC16D7A6FAE089DE53AE345A005593CAEC0C43C68

Use online tool like OnlineMD5 to check that the file you are using is the REAL trader. Beware of imposters/malicious links.




Step 2: Generate 1broker API key:

After you have logged in to 1Broker, go to "Account Settings" link in the menu and generate your API key to allow for Windows Application to communicate with 1Broker using your account.





Step 3: Input the Key into the 1Broker App so it can function

Take the key from Step #2, copy it, and go into the Windows App and click File -> Set API Key.



Enter the key in the dialogue box that pops up to prompt for input of API Token.



Issues/Contact


NOTE Some browsers like Chrome will complain because the program doesn't have the expensive digital signatures and is not "commonly downloaded":




There's no decompile protection on the binary, so feel free to open the code and explore it yourself. It's just low-quality C# .NET code Smiley.

Note: Withdrawals can NOT be done through the API. In the worst case scenario if you misplace your API key or think it is a malicious program, then it can only make bad trades, not steal your money.

App is still in testing and improvement. Any issues or comments contact swapman on Twitter or Telegram. I will gladly add features that are good and not too difficult to implement Smiley

The app utilises a referral ID override feature in 1Broker's API on order creation which goes toward funding further development. It does not cost the user anything, it only takes part of 1Broker's fees as in the normal referral program.

If you'd like to donate to my efforts, send to this address:
3DSJf3B4j6chrhnoUTTJKM4TJhsRA4Yuqf
2  Economy / Economics / Basic Cash and Carry Futures Arbitrage on OKCoin Bitcoin on: January 02, 2016, 12:30:19 PM
Here's the original source link:

http://austeritysucks.com/swapmans-futures-arbitrage-walkthrough.html

Reproduced:

(Totally hypothetical scenario. Not financial advice. Do not do this. I do not endorse this and I'm not responsible for any losses.)
Note: This strategy only works when futures are trading at a premium and for the right type of contract: Inverse Contracts or any derivatives which can lock in the USD value somehow (OKCoin, Bitmex XBU, and CryptoFacilities). XBT (quanto) contract payout structure is different and less effective for arbing because you have to constantly rebalance. For simplicity, assume no fees, no spread, no counterparty risk (no socialized loss), no exchange risk.


Making money arbitraging bitcoin futures is extremely simple. They typically trade at a small premium, and all you have to do, starting with USD, is buy bitcoin at Spot price and sell futures of the same amount at premium price. Seems too easy? Let's go through it in more detail:

  • You've got $1000 and spot price is at BTC/USD = $400. Let's say it's a Wednesday morning.
  • You look at the Forward curve and notice that the OKCoin weekly futures expires in 2 days and has a $5 premium, trading at $405 (ca 1% delta).
  • In two days the futures contracts expire and will settle at Spot price, which is currently lower.
  • You see this difference and think: there has to be a way to profit off this, right?


Simple Arbitrage Example Steps

1. Use your $1000 to buy 2.5 bitcoin on OKCoin spot.
2. Move your 2.5 BTC instantly from OKCoin Spot -> Futures
3. Sell 10 Contracts ($1000) short at $405 on Weeklies

And that's it! All you have to do is wait until expiration of the contract and settlement and you guarantee est $10 (ca 1%) profit on this move (ex-fees/spread/etc)

Remember, you must start with fiat, ideally with your USD already on OKCoin. You dont have time to deposit fiat, and USD is your starting point for arb purposes.

Since OKCoin futures are traded using only bitcoin, you have to get the USD into BTC in order to achieve the arbitrage. So either you start with Fiat on OKCoin and buy BTC, or you use USD to buy coin from somewhere else and just send the BTC over to OKCoin Futures. So if you had $1000 in cash and had a buyer who was willing to sell to you at spot, that would be fine too.



So, find some fast way to get your USD into BTC so you can arb right away; USD = $1000 -> buy 2.5 BTC

Then you move your 2.5btc into the futures side of OKCoin, which credits right away.

On there, you sell 10 contracts ($1000) of BTCUSD1W at $405.

Note that you must use Cross Margin/NonIsolate Martin/Portfolio Margin in order to be fully unlevered and not at risk of margin call.

You have now successfully locked in an arbitrage profit in a trade on OKCoin bitcoin futures. You will earn a positive Pnl of $10-15 under any market conditions, regardless of whether price moons or dooms.

Once Friday comes and the Pnl settles, you can move your ~$10 arbitrage profit (in BTC, remember OKCoin futures are only traded using BTC) from OKCoin Futures -> Spot and sell into USD to secure your profit in USD, or just keep it in BTC.

If you're still scratching your head, analyze what your profit would be under two extreme cases: one where spot price suddenly skyrockets before settlement, and another where it dumps hard right before settlement.

Case 1: BTC/USD jumps from $400 to $500 in 2 days before expiration

Now let's say after 2 days the price of BTC/USD is $500:

Your 2.5btc on deposit at OKCoin is now worth $1250 (2.5 BTC x 500 BTC/USD), however it is in a short position which has lost money:



Thus, you don't have 2.5 btc anymore because the 10 contracts on weeklies at $405 you shorted have just expired at $500 and you lost 0.4692 BTC after settlement, so youve got 2.0309 BTC x 500 BTC/USD = $1015.45.

You have profited $15.45 risk-free on your $1000, 1.55% in 2 days, or about 1528% in annualized percentage yield (APY) terms. Ending with: USD = $1015.45 ; BTC = 2.0309

Case 2: BTC/USD drops from $400 to $300 in 2 days before expiration.

Now instead let's imagine that after 2 days the price of BTC/USD is $300, when the weekly futures contract settles at Index (aka spot):

This time your 2.5btc you put over on the futures account is worth $750 (2.5 BTC x 300 BTC/USD). But, your futures position short 10 contracts from $405 has now earned bitcoin because you shorted BTC/USD before it dumped hard and settled at Index (aka spot market):



After expiration, you have earned 0.8641 BTC after settlement and in total have 3.3641 BTC x 300 BTC/USD = $1009.23

You have profited $9.23 risk-free on your $1000, 0.92% in 2 days, or about 432% APY. Ending with: USD = $1009.23 ; BTC = 3.3641

Under both cases of extreme price action before expiration, you are earning an arbitrage profit. The reason why you earn $9.23 on one and $15.45 on the other is because theres a small $5 difference in the entry which makes the hedge in this example a little imperfect. But that's because we are working with a small $1,000 example and the minimum contract size is $100, so you can't get a perfectly aligned hedge on such a small level. This is how it works in practice, small difference leads to this small outcome change, but the result is the same: risk-free (minus exchange/etc) arbitrage profit!

Thoughts

  • No matter what bitcoin price does, you have earned an arbitrage profit of $10-15 in 2 days using $1000 or 2.5 bitcoin at the start.
  • This is what's known as a "delta neutral arbitrage play", meaning you have exploited a price differential that you earn money on regardless of where the spot market changes until expiration
  • It may not be as sexy as doubling your money on a move within an hour trading at 20x, but earning 400%+ returns in annual rates on your money with little to no risk is very handsome for the patient traders out there.
  • Say you have $100,000 instead of $1,000. Rather than making $10 in a few days on this move, you could make $1,000, in days, with no real risk except exchange drama.
  • On OKCoin, it's not that hard to move 1,000 contracts ($100,000 notional value), so as long as the futures markets have a premium, then this opportunity is available consistently.
  • It is therefore plausible, with a $100,000 pot of starting capital, to earn solid income of $1,000 per week exploiting these arbitrage opportunities if you can spot 1% deviations in the days leading up to settlement on Fridays.
3  Economy / Service Discussion / My First Xapo Bitcoin Debit Card Purchase on: April 06, 2015, 04:33:13 PM
The folks over at Xapo have been rolling out beta tests for their new and improved Bitcoin debit card. I was fortunate enough to get on the list and received mine recently.

Going into it, I was honestly nervous after hearing all the horror stories of people who used it in last year's rollout. But I was assured by colleagues and friends that they have changed it to a beta system which has greatly improved. Additionally, I've had great support from Xapo as a betatester, particularly from Anni who was so helpful in getting me started.

So, let me tell you how it went:

For my basic first test, I went to Aldi (a supermarket chain) to make a small purchase, just to see how it was.

Here's the receipt from Xapo

Here's the receipt from Aldi

As you can see, the POS purchase price was 18.90 DKK. The amount deducted from the Xapo was 0.011btc.

At the time, 0.011btc was worth $2.83 at BTC/USD market price of $257.34 (on Bitstamp, their liquidity provider), which was equal to 19.22 DKK (using FX wholesale exchange rate). Using this method, the fee for using the Xapo card for purchase above the price of goods was 1.7%

This is actually lower than the amount stated on the Xapo receipt, which says that the fee was 0.45 DKK above the 18.90 purchase price. According to this, the fee was 2.38%.

There was absolutely no problem using the card. I activated it, received a PIN (note: the card has a valid chip, which is needed for most of Europe). I was worried a bit at first that the available balance on the card showed as 0, but that's how this card works since it is not prepaid.

When you are at the POS making the payment, the backend of the system checks your Xapo wallet to see that there is enough BTC to cover the purchase, and then takes deducts it from your Xapo wallet, sells the coin for fiat, and provides the purchase amount for payment, where it is then accepted. Instantly, as the payment is being accepted, the Xapo app pops up to show this activity.

The order of the process seems to be: Insert Card -> Enter PIN -> Xapo Wallet BTC deducted -> Screen Shows Waiting for <5 seconds -> Accepted). Somehow they have managed to connect these debit cards to their own system that is able to sort the cards by users they have with hot wallets, to ensure smooth payment processing. It was truly flawless in its execution.

It was seamless using the card -- no different from my normal bank card. A layperson would be able to use this card as if it were any other card and would be none the wiser that Bitcoin was even involved in the transaction. It really is just a normal VISA debit card.

The fees were very reasonable, considering if you were trying to go from BTC to fiat in traditional way you would pay spot exchange fees, wire fees, and of course time waiting for it to actually hit your account. Xapo seems to have put together a system which allows you to bypass all that and essentially spend bitcoins anywhere in the world that VISA is accepted.

So as I see it: why not have a Xapo debit card? There's no monthly fees, no idle fees, not even a setup fee! There's just a mild and reasonable transaction fee per purchase. It seems to me a no-brainer just to have it around in case you need/want to use it.

This is just my first experience. Over time I will make YouTube videos showing the card in more action, to put the card truly to the test. But I can confidently say after my first purchase: "so far, so good".

Get on the Xapo beta list here -- I only get 50bits from this so I'm not doing it to shill, just to provide the opportunity to you. Go through all the steps of Twitter, Facebook, etc. and you will get in their beta queue.

Big shoutout to my friend and colleague the billion-dollar bitcoin man Adam Guerbuez who was the original guy to post videos of the Xapo debit card in action: 1,2,3, 4,5 and who introduced me to Xapo and has been a wealth of knowledge on trading the bitcoin markets as well. Without him none of this would have been possible!
4  Economy / Trading Discussion / Professor Samir Saadi, PhD in Finance: "Buy bitcoin now, it's going to the roof" on: March 30, 2015, 04:13:50 AM
Not as enthusiastic as #ToTheMoon , but at least he's endorsing bitcoin as a store of value!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP8NLSHlU4M
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