Can somebody please explain this to me like I'm 12?

I want to automate various online transactions but I always get:
$ ./bitcoind getbalance
error: couldn't connect to server

$ cat bitcoin.conf
rpcpassword=**********             # Is this my wallet password?
rpcallowip=192.168.1.2
rpcssl=1
rpcsslciphers=DEFAULT:@STRENGTH

Can somebody please explain this to me like I'm 12?

I want to automate various online transactions but I always get:
$ ./bitcoind getbalance
error: couldn't connect to server

$ cat bitcoin.conf
rpcpassword=**********             # Is this my wallet password?
rpcallowip=192.168.1.2
rpcssl=1
rpcsslciphers=DEFAULT:@STRENGTH

The balance in my wallet fluctuates up and down quite a bit.  I backup my wallet maybe once every couple of weeks.
What would happen if my computer crashed and I restored a wallet that has more bitcoins in it than the wallet that I lost?

Would the system know which coins I no longer hold or would my transactions fail a lot?

Has anybody been able to successfully interface with the Mt.Gox trading API in Linux?
I've been pulling my hair out for hours trying to figure this shit out.

My program logic is all flow charted and pseudo-coded but first I need to connect.
I chose Perl because I'm familiar with it but perhaps Java would be easier.

Any tips on how to get started?

I only have addresses in my address book from my most recent transactions.  I can only assume this is because I recently updated my bitcoin client (0.6.0.6-beta).
My balance and transaction history is still in tact so I'm OK there.  I just want to make sure that any new BTC sent to old addresses would still be received.
Is this normal after an upgrade?