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1  Economy / Speculation / About BCC (Bitcoin's Cancer Cell) on: August 02, 2017, 12:18:48 AM
So, the thing we've been trying to avoid for years has actually happened: a contentious hard fork.

What are the ramifications?

Bitcoin Cancer Cell is the single crypto sharing SHA-256 with Bitcoin. Thus, miners are free to transition between the two as is more profitable. If Bitcoin Cancer increases in price, the market will subtract hashrate from Bitcoin and add it to the Cancer.

The Cancer is not only a direct threat to Bitcoin, but ultimately to itself since it is built on faulty fundamentals: The big block vision is one where blocks become so huge that only a few datacenters will be able to operate nodes, leading to a centralization level akin to PayPal and credit cards.

The Cancer comes from within us. It uses the same forums, chats and subreddits.

It is here to destroy.

The only solution? Excision before it metastazises and it's too late: Miners of the majority fork must band together and kill off the minority fork.
2  Economy / Speculation / Global Crypto Bear Market on: June 15, 2017, 06:40:21 AM
Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png
3  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin Exchanges: Amateur hour is over on: January 25, 2015, 10:29:13 PM
With the advent of two professional exchanges by the Winklevosses and Coinbase (which opens up tomorrow), people will finally be able to trust Bitcoin exchanges not to scam them out of their money or do blatant inside trading.

People will feel much more comfortable sending money to regulated exchanges run by people who know what they're doing and backed by venture capitalists (remember that NYSE recently invested in Coinbase) with a big stake in Bitcoin. The amateur exchanges will either professionalize or be left in the dust.

In my view, this may well be the biggest news story in a long time.
4  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitstamp must provide proof of BTC reserves on: January 06, 2015, 09:35:28 AM
It's easy to sign a message with a Bitcoin address.

Why are we expected to just swallow the words (potential lies) of a company that could well be insolvent when they could deliver cryptographic proof?
5  Economy / Speculation / MOVED: bitcoin just hit $310, game over! cut loose now! on: August 18, 2014, 12:02:07 PM
This topic has been moved to Trashcan.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=744456.0

We have enough of your repetitive threads for now. Use the other 3 on page 1.
6  Economy / Speculation / This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: June 26, 2014, 07:31:51 PM
The price on Bitfinex peaked on 4th December at 1175 USD (BitcoinWisdom). On that day, USD loans on the site were 6.8 million (bfxdata.com)

Ever since, the USD loans have ballooned up to ever increasing alltime highs while the price corrected, building an immense negative divergence that is still ongoing today: We now have 26.4 million USD in loans with a price of ~575. So the ratio once used to be 5787, and today it is 45913, constituting is a near nine-fold increase. It is true that Bitfinex has gained market share since then, but not by this big a factor, as is evidenced by only up to a ~2x increase in BTC loans as well as comparative exchange data over the past 6 months: http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/6m/USD?c=e&t=a&volume_unit=btc

Visualization (for some reason it does not include the actual price top that happened in December):



And here is what happened the last time around on Bitfinex when things went kaboom in a liquidation cascade (1 min intraday chart from Feb 10):

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitfinexUSD#rg180zig1-minzczsg2014-02-10zeg2014-02-10ztgSzm1g200zm2g25zxzi1gVolzl

What on earth are these overleveraged maniacs doing? Are they waiting for the bubble messiah and not willing to deleverage, no matter what happens?!
7  Economy / Speculation / Market cap in 2016 on: November 20, 2013, 06:32:11 PM
Interested to know what you guys think (preferably I would like to hear the opinion of those favoring a scenario of an immediate s-curve, economic singularity or whatever you would like to call it) Bitcoin's market cap will likely be in 2016. At MtGox prices, we peaked out at about 10.8 billion so far.

Say it goes up 1000% a year which I believe is viewed as conservative, that would be 100-fold increase and we would have a trillion dollar market cap.

What do you say?
8  Economy / Speculation / Websites for Bitcoin Speculators on: September 05, 2013, 06:04:31 PM
Stay on top of the Bitcoin market with these helpful websites:

BitcoinWisdom: Live charts with indicators, different exchanges
Bitcoinity: Live charts and order book visualization of different exchanges
Tradingview: Live chart + indicators, different exchanges
Bitcoincharts: Live prices for different exchanges, historical price charts with indicators and order books
BTC Charts: Live order book visualization, different exchanges
Bitcoin Analytics: Live charts and order books, different exchanges (paid version)
ZeroBlock: Live charts and order books, different exchanges (paid version)
SierraChart: Live chart feed for different exchanges for SierraChart program
Cryptonica: Live order book for Bitstamp
Blockchain.info: Stats, variety of charts
Bitcoinx: Prices, various stats and charts
blockchained.com: Prices, various stats and charts
Coinsight: Historical order book sums, different exchanges

Suggestions to add more welcome.
9  Economy / Speculation / Actual Bitcoin commerce vs. speculation on: August 03, 2013, 11:38:31 AM
Wordpress (Nov 2012 to July 2013):
Quote
94 successful transactions so far, pretty low.

Humble Bundle:
Quote
The Humble Double Fine Bundle was actually our first bundle to support it, which came out last month. It represents less than .1% of our sales for Humble Indie Bundle 8, which is pretty surprising for me.

There was also bitcoinstore.com which repeatedly failed to achieve its goals to maintain their low prices.

Do you guys know of any other stats?

Update 1st October: Silk Road is dead, and we now know how much business it had:

Quote
The total revenue generated from launch until July 23, 2013, resulted in approximately 9,519,664 Bitcoins and 614,305 Bitcoins of commission for Silk Road itself, court documents reveal. That converts to roughly $1.2 billion in revenue and $79.8 million in commissions, at current Bitcoin prices.

Today, is there anything Bitcoin is actually used for in meaningful transactional volumes besides drugs (SR), gambling (SD), speculation and mining equipment?
10  Economy / Speculation / Confess, Single Digit Believers on: June 28, 2013, 05:47:00 AM
There have to be some of you out there. Does anybody believe Bitcoin will go below $10 again? Cheesy
11  Economy / Speculation / Confess, triple digit believers on: June 25, 2013, 09:03:29 PM
Who still believes triple digits are feasible?

Do you think we will be trading in the triple digits the next couple months?
12  Economy / Service Discussion / The True Explanation of Ripple for Bitcoiners on: May 21, 2013, 03:41:53 AM
This thread is in response to misterbigg's thread since he decided to delete my following message (why he did that, I don't think there is a purpose to ask) in his self-moderated thread:

"Stop deceiving Bitcoiners. In the Ripple system, Bitcoins can only be held as IOUs, they are subject to counterparty risk. Only Ripples are devoid from counterparty risk, while they also are needed to maintain an account balance and conduct transactions (fee). If the Ripple system becomes the main way to interact with Bitcoin, the market will inevitably begin valuing Ripples higher, as they share all the advantages of Bitcoin with none of the disadvantages. Bitcoin usage would shrink, since it has no purpose really.

Ripple does not complement Bitcoin. Ripple is more of a parasite that feeds off Bitcoin until it can stand on its own.

You have said it yourself in the past. Within Ripple, XRP is superior to BTC.

OpenCoin is trying to apply a spin of coexisting to bootstrap themselves, but make no mistake, their business model is to hold XRP (30% is what they promise) until they appreciate in value. Ripples are not meant as mere tokens, but in the same way as Bitcoin a scarce asset, only without proof of work and its disadvantages.

Stop the intellectual dishonesty and say it like it is.

XRP is a direct competitor to BTC."
13  Economy / Speculation / DOWN DOWn down is the new up uP UP! on: April 16, 2013, 12:53:46 PM
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / BTCS&T Ė Why many people here are massive scammers and suckers on: July 04, 2012, 03:32:45 PM
Let us assume that pirate is running a legit business. In that case, what would depositors have to lose from FUD/trolling? It makes people withdraw, so that interest rates do not have to decrease and forced withdrawals are less likely to occur. Pretty good for any depositor, no? At least, as a depositor and when I believed it was no ponzi, this was pretty much how I thought about "FUD".

However, many vocal people in these forums are different. They intend to silence critics as trolls or FUD spreaders, while it would benefit them if it was an honest operation. So, I have to assume that some proponents are indeed, at the very least on a subconscious level, secretely assuming it is a ponzi scheme, particularly the people who are eligible for "Trust" accounts, only to keep their own scheme and profits running. A hostile forum would be an absolute hazard for a ponzi because it depends so very much on new investors coming in.

The main method being employed by this circlejerk is spamming topics with ironic jokes to hide critical postings or alternatively directly attempting to pressure and silence people.

BTCS&T is indistinguishable from a real ponzi scheme, so we have to assume that proponents would and will also defend a real ponzi scheme (even in the off chance this isn't)!

On the other hand, though, we have the suckers, who ignore or do not understand any of the evidence. They would also fall for the next ponzi scheme, even if this is not a ponzi, because they invested for the same (lack) of reasons.

The group think/herd mentality in this forum is dangerous, and I'm glad that there are people to break it, like I'm glad there were people to break it in May/June 2011.
15  Economy / Speculation / The Great Spring Stability of 2012 [NEW POLL: JUNE EDITION!] on: May 01, 2012, 09:02:06 PM
I have posted about this a month ago, but it I think it deserves its own topic.



How long are we going to do this? Will 3.8 or 7.2 fall first? 4.3 or 5.48?

When will The Great Spring Stability finally come to its end?

Poll Results (monthly):

https://i.imgur.com/ExYhU.png
16  Other / Off-topic / Hunting Atlas [Hunt is closed] on: April 26, 2012, 11:49:11 AM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1370
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=7681
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=62000
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=63351
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64183
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=64666
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=65849
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=66269
17  Economy / Trading Discussion / Evidence for Goat lying on his TyGrr-Bank operation? on: April 10, 2012, 03:51:36 PM
So, it seems that Goat just revealed his balance at Bitcoin Savings & Trust:


Note: Payments paid yesterday where added to your account (regardless if you are reinvested) just for record purposes while we switched over.  They'll be removed so don't go spending them. Smiley


Looks awesome but I think you over paid me 285.97519541 BTC  :/   Can you double check that?  Thanks.

We can calculate his balance from the interest payment 285.97519541 / 0.07 = 4 085.35993 BTC.

As most people know, he runs TyGrr-Bank which promises 3% weekly dividends. The issue here is that Goat made explicit statements in his threads that he is not going to invest further into Pirateís bank (bold emphasis mine):

It is no secret I have money in Pirates bank account. However I am doing this TyGrr-Bank to keep me from having to withdraw too much of my savings. I'm not adding to that account, just trying to keep it level. I do not think this violates the rules but if it does Pirate will let me know. He will notice it is going down today sadly.
Notice how he says he will not add to his bank account, the balance of which he reveals later on:

p.s. My balance in Pirate bank is just now around 1800, I pulled out over 500 to make a payment. My long term goal is to keep this at or above 2000 due to his new payment rules.
This does not sound like he will be adding anything later on either.

So, as of now he has over 4k there and even with 2k he only would have gained a balance of 2.68k.

The question is, did the difference come from TyGrr-Bank shareholders? I want to put that up to discussion, because if this is true, he must have lied.
18  Economy / Speculation / Interest Indicator on Bitcoinica Ė Epic Short Squeeze? on: April 08, 2012, 07:28:38 AM
Iíve made the experience that it has been pretty reliable to bet against the shorts when short interest was at its lowest Ė at the time -0.06 to -0.09, just as it has been reliable to bet against longs when the long interest was -0.21.

Now, the shorts are even heavier penalized than longs with -0.16. I have never seen it remotely this low. Are we looking at an epic short squeeze to happen?

19  Economy / Speculation / Speculation Posting Guideline on: March 27, 2012, 11:48:57 AM
To complement the Forum moderation policy for Speculation, here are a few guidelines on why postings are likely to be deleted or moved.

On Market Manipulation:

  • Clear suggestions to market participants to take a particular course of action (e.g. "Buy now before the price goes to 5", "SELL quickly, the weekend is coming")
  • Deliberate spreading of false or forged and deceptive information like faked charts
  • Announcements to take a particular market action (e.g. "I am going to buy 50k BTC tomorrow, so you better buy now.")

On Unrelated Topics:

  • Discussion of exchanges and service providers usually belongs to Trading Discussion
  • Scammer accusations also belong to Trading Discussion

These are NOT rules.
Itís just an information service for probable reasons your posts might be deleted. Always use your own judgement.
20  Economy / Speculation / Calling the Top on: March 07, 2012, 04:24:27 PM
Iíve called the 3.8 bottom before, so now I will do the same here.

5.07 will remain unbroken for the weekend at least.
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