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I still have a bearish vision on the market.
A several years old uptrend line was breached and, for the first time in years, we made a drastic low, lower than the previous major top (251 on Bitstamp).
This is starting to look too similar to the 2011 crash from 31.91 (June 2011) to 1.994 USDs (November 2011: MtGox data), followed by a long slow recovery.
If we are going to see a repetition of 2011, that would be very negative.
That would mean a crash to a price of 1/16 of the price on the top. Taking the Bitstamp top of 1163, it would be a crash to 72.68. If we take the top on MtGox (1242), we get 77.62. So, very close to the price of the Silk Road crash (2 October 2013) on Bitstamp: about 85.
But the recover of the 2011 crash wasn't in V. Actually, even the crash beyond 20 (after a first V one to 10 and then back to 20), was a slow one, like this crash more or less has been. With a few retrace rallies. And then a very painful two year recover from 1.994.
Only on the end of February 2013, price was above past top of 31.91.
History rarely repeats it self exactly, but if we go to 85/77/72, we might not have a V recovery, but a slow, painful, hesitant one. It won't take years to recover (because now Bitcoin has fundamentals that it hadn't before), but might take months.
Months with a price as low as 72-100 will damage mining seriously.
Of course, since the fundamental situation is different, the recovery might be much faster.
Anyway, if these prices are reached, but one of the 130-100-85-65 support zones holds, it will be a great buy. A buy some will tell their grandsons about.
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