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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Are you a lone bettor or a competitive one? on: March 14, 2021, 06:13:08 PM
I used to avoid competitions and preferred to just place my own bets on sports to see how it goes. I was glad to win and sad to lose, and it was between me and sports. In autumn, however, I entered a Sportsbet EPL prediction competition, and after months of it going on, I must say that I do find it engaging when various people make predictions for the same games, and then I can see how other people are making their decisions and how they are performing as well. At first, I thought I had no chance there, but I'm currently lucky to be in top-10, so now I do care about remaining there Smiley

Do you prefer being on your own with your matches and bets or do you like to take part in various tournament to boost the competitive spirit of it all?
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do you take team's cohesion into account when betting? on: February 18, 2021, 02:32:11 PM
I've just finished watching a TV show "Ted Lasso" which is about a guy coaching an EPL football club without even knowing football. The point is, he focuses not on the strong individual players, but on the team's morale and cohesion for the game. Here's a poster in case you might've seen it but aren't sure:

Image Source
After all, football is a team sport, so the team working hard together is not less important than a few very strong players scoring some goals, right?
Those who bet on football matches and do thorough research often look into injured players and stuff like this, but I have a question: do you ever try to assess the integrity of the team itself in any way before placing a bet? Do you think it matters in real life, or is it just a nice fantasy of a TV show?
3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Does knowing your sport and teams really make you better at betting on them? on: February 11, 2021, 09:54:21 AM
If you're betting on tennis without the slightest idea of how the game works, you probably won't do a good job because you wouldn't even understand what you're betting on. However, if you have some basic knowledge of the game and teams, is it enough to become good at betting? If you really know the teams and follow what's happening to them (injuries and stuff like that), does it really make you good at betting?
I want to draw from my personal experience with football and predicting EPL. I have some basic knowledge about EPL and about football in general, but I'm not deep into the details. However, it seems that I've been improving at predicting how the matches would go by getting the hang of analyzing the odds, previous history of matches between the teams and recent history of matches of some teams against other strong teams. So I've been paying more attention to betting, but my knowledge of football and teams did not change much, but here's some data on how I've been making predictions on Superbru:

So from worse than average I went to top-20. Perhaps it's just luck or some random factors, and I'm not really getting better at it. What's your experience and opinion on the relation between knowing the sport and betting on it?
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / Why would anyone use a betting broker? Have you tried it? on: January 17, 2021, 09:42:05 AM
I saw a thread about a betting broker on Bitcointalk yesterday, and I started wondering why it's even a thing if it's not hard to register and use a betting website directly.
I read this article which states 5 reasons to use such an intermediary:
Quote
Access to bookmakers that you are already limited on
Use bookmaker that aren't available in your country
High limits and best odds
Access Asian bookmakers odds
Less administration
The first and the second point sound like cheating because one shouldn't play from a restricted jurisdiction. As for the third one, good websites can offer odds boosts which are also beneficial (I'm thinking of Sportsbet.io where I use the odd boost very often), and the broker's fee will also undermine the better odds one might be getting. Here are a couple of examples of boosted odds on my recent bets:

Another downside of brokers for me personally is that they seem to have a very significant minimum deposit of $150-200, whereas I tend to deposit about $10-$30 to a sports betting website, and it lasts me for a long time.
Overall, is it really worth it? Have you ever used a broker and do you think it's truly useful and profitable to do so?
5  Economy / Economics / Hamish McRae: making reasonable predictions or just another speculator? on: January 10, 2021, 09:45:41 AM
Today I've watched this video which analyses predictions for life in 2020 in 1994 by Hamish McRae. There was no pandemic in those predictions, and he got some other things wrong, but overall the predictions were reasonable and close to what actually happened. And I've noticed in the video that this guy has an article on Bitcoin, so I decided to look into it.
Being careful about predictions, this guy is talking about the asset market in general, but considers Bitcoin as a part of it as well. And he thinks the whole thing will explode due to investors cashing out on their profits within this year.
Do you think this will happen to the asset market? If yes, do you think Bitcoin will face the same destiny and for the same reason?
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do you ever bet on SRL events? on: January 01, 2021, 01:44:01 PM
I've known about simulated reality matches for a while now, but they weren't of interest to me until I once noticed that the odds can be more attractive there than on the real match. So I've placed my first SRL bet today just to have a start:

I think such events gained some popularity when the real matches barely occurred, but are they popular nowadays? Have you ever placed a bet on one? Would you consider them more "pure" than the real matches since they account for many factors and then let the program to its thing rather than rely on real people playing in out in the field?
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? on: December 13, 2020, 03:54:22 PM
I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do the odds of other outcomes matter to you? on: December 05, 2020, 11:27:19 AM
I'm not sure how to explain my question properly, but it's just something I noticed that seems to matter to me in sports betting. So imagine match A and match B with the odds of the likeliest winner being approximately the same (say, 1.5). But in match A, the other two outcomes in 1x2 are also pretty likely (3.1 and 2.8, for instance), whereas in match B they are way less likely (5.2 and 6.5). So if you choose to bet on the likeliest winner, and the odds for that in match A and match B are very similar, does it matter to you what are the odds of other outcomes? I chose a couple of real examples to illustrate my point, although they are not perfectly similar and the odds are a bit different, but I hope you'll get what I'm talking about.
Here are the odds on Sportsbet.io for Chelsea vs Leeds United:

And there are the odds for Tottenham Hotspur vs Royal Antwerp:


The odds on the likeliest winner are almost the same, but other outcomes are a bit more likely in the first match than in the second (even accounting for the 0.1 difference in the odds).
So when you are placing bets, does this difference between the odds of the favorite and other outcomes matter to you?
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Is live betting better than betting in advance? on: November 28, 2020, 11:26:06 AM
I've been experimenting with betting for some time, but I must admit that I consistently avoid live bets. It's very annoying to me that the odds are changing fast, and that while placing a bet you're likely to see the odds changing again right in front of you, and then you have to accept the new ones before you can proceed. I also prefer to bet in advance because it gives more time to think and make calm informed decisions, whereas live bets put additional stress to the process, and I believe it makes the choices more emotional rather than rational. Then again, it might become way more obvious who's going to win the match after it started because you've already seen how the teams are doing today.
I placed a small low-risk live bet on Sportsbet.io today to see through the process, but I don't think I'll change my habits:

What about you? Do you prefer live bets or not? Why?
10  Economy / Gambling discussion / 1x2 vs the correct score bets on: November 14, 2020, 02:10:08 PM
I've opened threads on gambling behavior and multi vs single bets before, and this one is another question I'm interested in to understand what the majority of this gambling community prefers. If you bet on soccer matches, what kind of bets do you prefer? Is it 1x2 bets or are you into something more risky like predicting the correct score? What do you choose more often?
As for me, I prefer the simple 1x2 bets because predicting the winner is often much simpler than predicting the score. However, I'm participating in Sportsbet EPL Pool, and there we're predicting the correct score of every EPL match (although you do get a point for guessing the outcome correct, so it's not as risky as placing bets on the correct score). So far, I've predicted the score correctly only 5 times out of 78 matches, so betting on the score is definitely not a good thing for me.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Something still has to be done about transaction fees! on: October 29, 2020, 03:13:04 PM
Here we go again. Bitcoin is on the rise, and even though it's up about 30% from the usual price of the recent times, the transaction fees are up 10 times. I've just sent 0.01 BTC, and the suggestion for a regular fee was $12! The priority was a couple of dollars more, and I went for it. There hasn't been such a spike since the 2017-2018 craze, but now enormous fees are apparently back, and they remind that we need a solution to the scalability issue. The LN is not inspiring, but nothing better is coming up. I think that such fees are a huge obstacle to Bitcoin adoption as money and should be considered a top priority. What do you think about the fees and the perspectives?
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Multi bets vs single bets on: October 28, 2020, 05:31:43 PM
In my little experiment from the past, I was betting on Sportsbet.io on very likely outcomes with very low odds (1 point something). I won three single bets in a row:

But after a discussion on this forum I accepted the idea that these low odds give very low profit and are not worth the effort. So then I thought: why not make a multi bet consisting of these very likely winners and boost the profit this way? I decided to give a multi bet which combines three of such very likely outcomes a shot. And... I lost it because two out of three one and in one case another team won.

So my question is whether you prefer multi bets to single bets and whether you find multi bets significantly more risky than single bets.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / EFL Championship: Sportsbet.io betting odds on: October 16, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
I know that with EPL going on English Football League Championship might not be that interesting, but is anyone betting on it? Perhaps not on the particular matches, but on the EFL Cup winner? Manchester City won the last time, but can they do it again? Judging by the odds on Sportsbet.io, it seems like it's the most likely winner:

Are you betting on them or some other club? With the price boost the potential wins are pretty attractive even if we're talking about the likeliest winner.
Or is it too early to make this bet because the final match is in more than four months, what do you think?
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / A case of the pandemic changing the score and affecting sports betting on: October 08, 2020, 09:04:43 AM
The pandemic is affecting many areas, including sports. There've been discussions of how the home advantage doesn't fully come into play on empty stadiums, and on many events getting cancelled, resulting in people betting on stuff they would not normally be interested in. But yesterday happened something I did not think of before. It was football match France vs Ukraine. I've looked at predictions and France was expected to win, so the outcome of the match did not change. However, the score was predicted to be around 3-0, whereas Ukraine actually lost 7-1. One could think that things happen, and what does the pandemic have to do with an unfortunate game, but it has lots to do. According to Ukrainian Association of Football, due to traumas and positive COVID-19 tests more than a half of the current squad wasn't able to play yesterday. Three strong players tested positive on the eve of the match (with two more testing positive a few days ago), and Ukraine was left with only one goalkeeper.
This match went not as expected, but the outcome did not change, but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?
Do you think it's a big factor to take into account given the current situation?
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Are there any truly safe bets in sports betting? on: September 13, 2020, 09:13:22 AM
Greetings! When I started betting on various events, I kept putting money on the options that were offering high payout but, naturally, weren't that likely to come true. I kept losing, so I decided to go for a radical change: betting only when the winner is pretty obvious and the payout is low but more or less secured. I won a few bets in a row like that, but my question is whether you'd consider it a good strategy for sports betting. I'm talking about bets for which the odds are 1.15 or something like that. Here're some bets I won like this:


Are these bets as safe as they seem? Would you go for this strategy or not? Why?
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / BBC Sports Personality 2020 on: September 02, 2020, 12:48:29 PM
Greetings!
While there have been considerations about the possible cancellation of the event in 2020 due to the pandemic, it seems that BBC Sports Personality of the Year will probably be awarded.
Are you planning to bet on it? Betting is available on Sportsbet.io:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/specials/sports/bbc-sports-personality-2020/bbc-sports-personality-2020-5eef25090a476dd231e812f9.

Who do you think will win the award? It seems that Tyson Fury is the likeliest winner. He's been favorite for this award since February, and he's still holding the status. Would you call putting some mbtc on him a safe bet?

17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Are there any VR crypto casinos? on: August 30, 2020, 10:41:47 AM
My spouse recently bought Valve Index, and we are exploring the new opportunities it opens. I enjoy the good-quality experience it provides, but it just came to my mind that there should be VR casinos as well. I googled VR casinos and found out that some indeed exist, but I started wondering whether there are any crypto casinos that support VR. I've searched the forum but did not find anything serious. Do you know any reputable casinos with VR support? Have you tried any, and do you think they could get popular?
I found some slots with VR support on Bitcasino through this article, but are there websites focusing on them more specifically?
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Sports betting: how much knowledge is too much on: August 22, 2020, 10:08:33 AM
I've been experimenting with betting on sports, and for now I don't see a difference between when I'm making an educated bet and just betting blindly looking only at the odds. It hasn't been long, however, so I'll keep experimenting.
My question is about a related matter. When I've asked in a different thread what is required to become a good bettor, many have mentioned that knowing the games, the teams and things like that is essential. But I'm sure there's a certain limit to this flow of information, and when this limit is reached, it's not useful and is even potentially harmful for making the decision. If a person is betting on a soccer match and reads about every match of every person on every team, plus weather forecast, plus research on home advantage etc., the amount of information can be overwhelming and probably not that important or useful to bet on the outcome a particular match. What do you think: is there a rule that would help not to drown in information but only focus on what is helpful? Or is it 'the more, the better' in your opinion?
19  Other / Meta / Just wondering why my thread was deleted on: August 15, 2020, 12:53:19 PM
Greetings! Yesterday I've started a thread on whether impartiality is good or bad for betting on sports (the issue that it's hard to bet against your favorite team when you know you should), but today I've noticed that the thread is gone. I believe it was under this link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5268835 (now, of course, it shows an error). I haven't received a notification that the thread was deleted by moderators (maybe the notifications are not sent out anymore, I don't know), but I just want to know why this happened. Perhaps I've done something wrong, I want to ensure I don't make the same mistake, I guess. I thought it was a legit topic to discuss... Does anyone have any ideas? Thanks.
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / What makes a good bettor? on: August 08, 2020, 03:07:40 PM
I've been thinking about betting and what allows a person to be good at it. There's reason to believe that betting on, say, sports, is skill-based, as at least there are some people famous for being good at it. But if a person is betting on horse races, does the person need to know a lot about horses and horse races or can one be a successful bettor based on other things (for instance, choosing a certain strategy based on the odds or simply reading what others say about an upcoming race)? Is it about knowing how to bet or what you're betting on, what do you think? And do you think betting something a person can become good at or is it that there's a low probability of there being people who bet successfully on a regular basis and these people just exist?
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