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http://bitcoin-analytics.com/






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This section is for the speculation and discussion of bitcoin's value.

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[DISCLAIMER: The following post shows the risk with accepting bitcoin transactions with no confirmations. This could not have been done if the transaction had a confirmation.]

DISCLAIMER: The following post shows the risk with accepting bitcoin transactions with no confirmations. This could not have been done if the transaction had a confirmation.

Second attempt: This time I started with twenty 0.01BTC imputs, to create a "spammy" transaction.

Here are the two transactions:
(Lost bet against satoshidice of 0.2BTC with no fee paid)https://blockchain.info/tx/7d6ce09ff0d013e9d59760857339c59b107d3e5c80437a9f5ea79d9a6ca32861
http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=7d6ce09ff0d013e9d59760857339c59b107d3e5c80437a9f5ea79d9a6ca32861&limit=100&min_bet=0&status=ALL
(Double spend with 0.004BTC fee paid)https://blockchain.info/tx/be585cd7c6e9a0a6f48502e5d3adde2588fe55bcb7b27964968e6ddce4701e1a

Edit: And the second transaction with the fee got the confirmation from BTC Guild, so the original bet against satoshidice will never confirm.


Failed first attempt:

EclipseMC picked up the 0 fee transaction.

Conclusion: The miner must be using a custom set of rules when picking transactions for this to work. I got lucky in the practice round.

Okay here is my attempt to double spend against a satoshidice loss: (Sorry it got a little sloppy)
This is the address I am using, which started with 0.5BTC:
https://blockchain.info/address/1PvsMBVx1tVrX4q5Ef2NfMjsB6qUF9G9q2
Here is the 0.25BTC bet against satoshidice, which I lost (No fees paid):
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/36578058
http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=dff6f55049a534855115d3efb76a6d1955b223a0d73bcbe95a0d74ba3f4445cc&limit=100&min_bet=0&status=ALL
Here is the double spend (0.001 fee paid), which included the whole balance of 0.5, and also a separate 0.1 input:
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/36578900

I then moved the double spend around twice, just as before, paying a 0.001 fee each time:
https://blockchain.info/tx/cd7ba48d2d0816dcf13c1be38eb434fcc02ef470198a5f6a5ef841be5e3ddbf4
https://blockchain.info/tx/acfd7095934893105b2fa4941e02d9b8fa28cd8a2bf47f550a15620747c70e88

Successful practice round:

Out of curiosity, I wondered what would happen if I tried to double spend some coins. So I did.

I started with a balance of 0.85037754 BTC at this address: https://blockchain.info/address/1NBSySCggyahxu5F3LHnFwT7MvJycfamuG

I then sent the 0.85037754 without a miner's fee to this address:
https://blockchain.info/address/1HPapF7cemm7Erat11LEsi461gVL2EWdWb
Then I sent the same 0.85037754 again with 0.05256613 from another address to the same address above, this time including a miner's fee.
https://blockchain.info/address/1HPapF7cemm7Erat11LEsi461gVL2EWdWb
From the transaction with the miner's fee, I sent the coins two more times including fees, and they finally rest here:
https://blockchain.info/address/1HJ18q1tsZCqgD4jtCeYvmtB3Sb9KMhN5R

So what I end up with is two unconfirmed balances.
0.85037754 at https://blockchain.info/address/1HPapF7cemm7Erat11LEsi461gVL2EWdWb (No fees paid),
0.9 at https://blockchain.info/address/1HJ18q1tsZCqgD4jtCeYvmtB3Sb9KMhN5R (Fees paid)

Will the transaction with miner fees get confirmed over the transaction without the miner fees? As I understand it after a few hours/days eventually one of them will be confirmed, but how do miners decide which one?

Edit: The transaction with the fees that was placed an hour later got confirmed over the transaction with no fees.

If you learned something new or enjoyed reading this post, please send donations to 1Donate3AJvrk5kNEoyR6qNFCuTdHsBsmr. I lost a few BTC in this process  

Looking to buy a handful of these coins. About 25 of them, name your price. If this thread is still here, I am still looking to buy.

That is all.

Even if you have done it before, I encourage you to do it again. Send them an email at donate@wikimedia.org  

Its been down for about an hour for me  

Edit: NVM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40889.msg1306658#msg1306658

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120737.0

Lets see how many (short term) bulls and bears we have right now.  



What direction will the price go on 10/17?

[Service is closed for now.]

Service is closed for now.

This is a cheap service for text alerts when there is a large movement in the exchange rate of bitcoins. Every message will be made by me manually. I work at home so I am able to monitor the price 24/7, and monitor wall movements while I am awake. (I am usually up late at night too.) Therefore there is no guarantee that I will catch every single movement, but I will try to catch at least ~95% of them.

If you want to sign up, just leave a post here and send me a PM of the phone number or email you want alerts for. I will give you an address to send payment to.




Text Message/Picture Message/Email alerts

• 0.25/BTC a month
• Text messages are for the United States or Canada only (Picture messages are U.S. only)
• Alert when the price of bitcoin moves 2% or more within a short time range.
• Alert when large bids/asks ("walls") are placed.
• Alert whenever something happens which I think deserves an alert.  
• Pictures sent of major wall movements or price changes.

Some other great free tools that I have found useful:

Bitcoin ticker widget for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ws.websca.bitcointicker&hl=en
Bitcoin ticker for iOS: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin-ticker/id440229059?mt=8
Bitcoin price alarm: http://www.bitcoin-tools.de/

Before anyone considers buying, look real hard at the last 12 hours.



All the volume is on the way down. I don't believe there are any signs that this is over, and I genuinely do not want anyone to get burned here. Also don't forget that Monday is a U.S. holiday, so 'the weekend dip' could be stretched a bit.

Update 10/8:

(Past 2 days)

[I don't think we are going any lower 30 (44.8%)]

http://www.repeatmyvids.com/watch?v=Uvk6DJu26gI

How much further are we going to go down?  

Results from Friday:
<12.50    8 (11.9%)
<12.40    4 (6%)
<12.30    4 (6%)
<12.20    3 (4.5%)
<12.00    1 (1.5%)
<11.80    0 (0%)
<11.60    17 (25.4%)
I don't think we are going any lower    30 (44.8%)
Total Voters: 67

Actual: $12.50

Results from Saturday:
<12.40    4 (7.5%)
<12.30    5 (9.4%)
<12.20    4 (7.5%)
<12.00    7 (13.2%)
<11.80    5 (9.4%)
<11.60    3 (5.7%)
<11.40    15 (28.3%)
I don't think we are going any lower    10 (18.9%)
Total Voters: 53

Actual: $11.78

Who is running this bot and why haven't they got around to fixing this thing? There was some higher volume when it first started, they probably lost a few $.

Miners are having bad luck and it's been about 1 hour since the last block was solved. That means there could be a build up of bitcoin transactions heading to mtgox. Will this cause a small dip in price within the following hour? Discuss.

Never mind, trades just went through. It's just lagging

I just wanted to leave a huge thank you to CampBX. They are by far my favorite exchange now since they have always sent my withdrawals to Dwolla the SAME DAY. I really appreciate it!

So anyone else who doesn't want to wait the 1-2 weeks for a Dwolla withdrawal at Mt. Gox should really consider selling their bitcoins there.

That is all.  

I have been watching bitcoinmonitor.com, and about every 5 minutes, ~3600 BTC have been transfered for the past few hours now. Does anyone know who/what is doing this?

Any ideas? I wish I owned an exchange right now lol