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1  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin Bubble Cycle - a History of Bitcoin "Bubbles" on: October 22, 2013, 10:27:57 PM
Bitcoin is a Bubble is no joke; Bitcoin's History is full of them.

Most notably are the 5 Mega bubbles ending almost an order of magnitude more valuable after the "resulting" crash.  
There have only been 2 noteworthy teething bubbles where a new order of magnitude has been tested.

It's clear Bitcoin is growing, in value with each bubble, but the question you need to answer before investing is, is the user base growing?
Easy to answer if you're investing in the Bitcoin Protocol for the first time, not so easy if you have been through a bubble or two!  

A layman's guess is Bubbles 1, 2 and 3 saw an increase of adoption proportional to the growth, possibly Bubble 5 saw the user base grow as well. The bubble 4 in my opinion was largely a narcissistic one, as it was followed by the 2 teething bubbles that saw the necessary increase in adoption.  

Predicting where the next bubble will end up is all about predicting the growth of the user base adopting the protocol / aka. investing in Bitcoin.

I think it is still too soon to know what's about to happen, but it is Fun times ahead.




2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Help something totally random is happening to My QT client. on: June 08, 2013, 02:58:50 AM

( the  transaction ID if it is worth anything 5a9ba42834377029abcc7d264145a795fadd7b45716913875228a8f38d3165a2)


All my transactions (from my first listed in the image above all the way up to March 8th 2013 are now listed as unconfirmed. My QT balance seems in tact, however the transactions listed as recent are random.)  

Is there an explanation for this QT v0.8.1-beta

3  Economy / Speculation / Price V Difficulty speculation. on: June 05, 2013, 10:08:37 PM
My guess is, there are a lot of ASIC's coming on the market and the difficulty is going to rise for a while as it has. (I guess this is the start of the swan song for GPU mining - like GPU's were for CPU miners.) 

Supply of BTC is half what it was after June 2011 spike. I imagine it is going to be something similar to the time between October 2010 and March 2011 when Difficulty increased rapidly relative to Price. (When the first publically available GPU mining software came online triggering a demand for buying BTC over mining it)

So what going to happen in the coming year, is BTC undervalued given the coming ASIC arms race like the 2012's were relative to the 13's? 

Anyone care to share their thoughts?

The graph below is just a graphic representation of web data available it would have more value if you could show this relative to market adoption (possibly correlate mining reword relative to QT client downloads per month).

4  Other / Off-topic / Amazon coin / Bitcoin parody on: May 13, 2013, 09:25:16 PM
Bitcoin's corporate competitor Amazon Coin (AZC- for want of a better name) has launched @ $1US = 100AZC
http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/13/amazon-launches-amazon-coins-virtual-currency-on-kindle-fire-gives-5-in-free-coins-to-all-users/

So here is the speculation, how long will AZC be pegged to Fiat?
Will Amazon inflate the supply faster than the US Fed?
How much AZC will $1 USD buy a year (and 5 years) from now?
5  Economy / Economics / THE MONARCHS OF MONEY , - Bubble economics on: April 30, 2013, 01:52:58 PM
An interesting article from the CBC, it looks like all investment options don't play out well in our current economic model, Joe Blog is about to understand why Bitcoin is not just some crazy idea but an idea whose time has come.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/29/f-rfa-macdonald-power-shift-growth.html

6  Economy / Speculation / . on: April 13, 2013, 05:02:18 AM
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7  Bitcoin / Press / 2013-04-11 (CBC) Bitcoin virtual currency hitting the mainstream on: April 13, 2013, 03:45:10 AM
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2013/04/11/technology-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html

Kevin O'leary does a great intro on prime time CBC Canadian TV, still skeptical calling it a Barby curacy and unfortunately lumping it in with WOW gold but overall positive.

Check out the "Volatile Bitcoin 3:27: video snip. 
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Where is Bitcoin in the Technology adoption lifecycle? on: April 11, 2013, 06:17:56 PM
There is a long standing pole I started over in the economics section: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113606.0
Please vote/ update your vote - comment.

I am wanting to share the users market sentiment, also - please read the OP as there is a lot about Bitcoin there what I think is bullish.

Statistically 15% of total users are classified as Early Adopters, my question is how do you see yourself in a bigger picture?


9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Help! blockchain.info - My Wallet newbie. on: March 09, 2013, 04:40:43 PM
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10  Economy / Economics / Your cost of deflation in Bitcoin? (how not to hedge against deflation) on: February 15, 2013, 11:32:08 PM
At the peak of the 2011 bubble I started GPU mining as my CPU mining efforts has not yield any results.

After mining for a few months I was the proud owner of a few dozen coins but I was left somewhat disillusioned at the economic potential of Bitcoin (I had not yet discovered Bitcointalk)

After discovering Casascius Physical coins I was struck by the marvel of that my computers had generated enough economic benefit to justify the mining of metals, the minting of a coins and wherewithal to encourage someone to take the risk and pay to ship real tangible BTC GDP output to me. Quite an epiphany :-)

No drought, I made my first Bitcoin purchase. I bought 4 casascius Bitcoins, and I paid in Bitcoin, the total cost was 9BTC to quantify that, I'll Include Campbell's Ready To Serve Cream Of Mushroom Soup (I know people think Fiat isn't worthy.)  it works out like this:
4 Bitcoin cost me 9 Bitcoin. (BTC2.25 Each)
Or in Fiat 4 Bitcoin's cost me $ 243. ($60 each)
Or in Soup, Bitcoin cost me a deflationary loss of 42.6 cans of soup. *
*9BTC = 4BTC ( 127.8 cans of Soup difference at today's price)

Not to do with deflation, but to add injury to insult, I experimented initially with my Bitcoin faucet BTC0.05 and sent some of it to a few publically available addresses where I could see the balance. amazingly it worked, however when it came time to pay for my Casascius coins, being a novice I sent my BTC9 to the wrong address, making the cost of my 4 coins effectively double (BTC4.5 per BTC1) .

So I have come to realise my 9BTC investment for 4BTC Casascius coins was a good hedge against deflation.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / I have access to Bitcoin and X children? on: December 13, 2012, 12:15:54 AM
I am aware that many contributors to this forum base some of their ideological positions on the fact that they have children.   I am curious to know what percentage of active members have children in their lives?
Feel free to suggest missing options but I am interested to know how many children are under the influence of Bitcoin role models, and what if at all your kids think of Bitcoin? 
12  Bitcoin / Legal / Are Bitcoin's virtual property? on: December 06, 2012, 07:36:47 PM
So while I intuitively know what Bitcoin's are, and have since I decided to buy and mine them over 22 months ago, most people just don't seem to care, I read a lot about what it is not, and what it is, seems to be always a complicated explanation that day to day people seem to loos interest over. 

Or worse it is described as "virtual currency" and seems to lack traction or credibility. Conjuring imagery of buying virtual food or a virtual plane trip to enjoy virtual fun leaving day to day Fiat accepting people thinking it is good for virtually nothing tangible, and leaving the belief intact that Fiat is tangible.
(before some one can grasp the merits of Bitcoin one first has to understand the problem that money is Virtual, and while Fiat money buys tangible things it is an inferior virtual concept. )
 
Given Bitcoin's are not:
- a ponzi scheme, although there are many similarities as it propagates the way it is.
- a commodity, although it triads like one it has no commodity value other than the intrinsic value being P2P and secure and finite. 
- a Currency, well not just yet or not, because it is virtual (ethereal) and lacks scale making it big enough to support a triad based micro economy (silk road aside given most bitcoiners probably aren't trading on SR)
- Securities or investments, well not practicality by guarantee or by definition although the Bitcoin community defiantly sees it this way.
- Money either, well it has potential, but while the Market Cap in value dwarfs  BTC economic GDP, it is safe to say it's value as money is inherent in the system, but not reflected in the economy.

This may sound obvious but in the light of the above it seems to be a bit of an insight for me, to think of Bitcoin as the first finite digital property. The digital property Idea allows it to evolve to be any one of the "not" definitions above.

A Digital world being endless is by its virtual nature repeatable and abundant. In essence the internet era constitutes a paradigm shift for humanity which has evolved in a finite world, and now Bitcoin creates a tangible bridge between the Virtual and Finite.

Despite hundreds of years of attempts to make virtual ideas real by calling them Intellectual Property (IP) or the ever evolution of DRM, and redefining our laws to make them legitimate, Bitcoin is the first technology to make virtual properly finite. 

So am I wrong thinking Bitcoin is virtual property?
13  Bitcoin / Pools / Is there a Hashrate Distribution Animation? on: October 22, 2012, 12:50:01 AM
Has anyone ever animated over time the hash distribution pie chart?  
I would love to see it.

http://blockchain.info/pools
14  Economy / Economics / Are we genetically programmed for Bitcoin economics? on: October 10, 2012, 08:14:00 PM
Quote from: Slashdot.org
"One side is accused of supporting ethnic cleansing; the other of being intellectually naive. Geneticists and economists are struggling to collaborate on research that explores how our genes influence and interact with economic behavior. Top economists are publishing a paper that claims a country's genetic diversity can predict the success of its economy. To critics, the economists' paper seems to suggest that a country's poverty could be the result of its citizens' genetic make-up, and the paper is attracting charges of genetic determinism, and even racism. But the economists say that they have been misunderstood, and are merely using genetics as a proxy for other factors that can drive an economy, such as history and culture."

Economics and genetics meet in uneasy union
So as it turns out according to economists ( by economist I presume they mean Keynesians) the West is genetically predisposed for economic success,  and the monetary problems beginning to surface can be overlooked as we live in a world where genetics predict economic prosperity.

So can using Bitcoin alter your genome?   
15  Economy / Economics / Where is Bitcoin in the Technology adoption lifecycle? on: September 28, 2012, 03:06:36 AM

The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes  to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin.

Looking at the injustice that is a result of our current money and economic system, it seems inevitable that a system like Bitcoin is an absolute necessity, and it is propagating according to the Law of Diffusion of Innovations.

My concern for Bitcoin to benefit the masses, (let's say 1/5th of the planet) 1,400,000,000 people; we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point. (That is about 210,000,000 enthusiasts to use and benefit from Bitcoin before it gets mass market appeal) that = BTC0.1 per person on average.

As the current distribution of Bitcoin stands at the moment Early Adopters were the ones who got in before the 2011 bubble and the new comers are looking like the Early to Late majority.   

The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed?  That kind of limits new comers to Bitcoin to the Late Majority and Laggard status and limiting the total adoption to around 60,000 enthusiasts.

How do I sell the benefits of a fixed currency like Bitcoin when the wealth created by the labour of over a  100,000 people transfers to a single early adopter with a balance of a few thousand coins? 

Simon Sinek has a great TED talk on TED.com on "Why" , people adopt new technologies.

If you haven't read Crossing the Chasm by  Geoffrey Moore it is a good read.
16  Other / Beginners & Help / . on: July 13, 2012, 07:29:10 PM
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