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1  Economy / Service Discussion / BTC-e flash crash 8/18 on: August 18, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
It nearly (or did) touch $300 before arbitrage bots started kicking in. Still much lower, but the disparity is disappearing.

What was that about? BTC-e problem, or just some retarded selling?
2  Economy / Service Discussion / Declaration of Robert Marie Mark Karples on: March 15, 2014, 05:46:17 PM
Filed in the N.D.Texas Bankruptcy Court.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/212477228/Karpeles-Declaration

Clearly, the bitcoin liabilities aren't being counted at anything like their true market value, if at all. I understand that this is what was declared in Japan as well.
3  Economy / Service Discussion / "MtGox business is healthy and profitable" : Alleged Mt.Gox projections on: February 26, 2014, 04:30:01 AM
I don't know the provenance of this apparent scan, but this is absolutely what the scribd pdf says (just download it and open it up to copy the text, highlighted in black rather than redacted Roll Eyes ):
https://i.imgur.com/u9aP9Hg.png

Going forward: $3.3-4 million for legal fees is a litigation-sized budget, but that seems reasonable under the circumstances.

How did they allegedly run last year on only $60K salaries? Was everyone there a subcontractor?

"Net sales" and "cost of goods sold" are weird ways to describe a service. All BS placeholders?  How the hell do they project 8x growth for next year?

In the unlikely event this is not BS, looks totally wrong; just the cash portion of their fees for 10 months of declining volume should be something on the order of $20 million+. Not even in the right ballpark.
4  Economy / Service Discussion / Why does the price of GoxBTC in GoxBux continue to drop? on: February 21, 2014, 01:40:18 AM
Yeah, I know that neither "USD" nor "BTC" on Mt. Gox are meaningless concepts, but what is the thinking of users who (apparently) continue to sell GoxBTC for GoxBux?

If you think Mt. Gox is totally insolvent and will never pay any depositors, it shouldn't really matter what you hold on the fictional exchange. (And for what it's worth, since Mt. Gox has taken fees out both as cash and BTC, I suspect they are much lighter on cash than BTC. After all, their expenses are in cash. If any depositors get paid in cash, Mt. Gox's Japanese trustee, or whatever, would probably first need to liquidate the BTC.)

OK, so if you think that Mt. Gox will only pay out cash deposits, maybe you'd prefer to hold GoxBux. But if you're wrong and they do recover BTC withdrawals, you've just taken over an 80% haircut at current GoxBTC prices. That seems unjustifiably large.  The correct price for GoxBTC should be:

[BTC market rate] x [probability Gox recovers] / [probability Gox folds and does pay "USD" (times percentage paid)]

So if you think there's a 90% chance Mt. Gox fails, and a generous 50% chance it fails and pays USD deposits at 100%, you would still rather hold GoxBTC selling at 100 GoxBux (the current price), because in the unlikely event Mt. Gox opens withdrawals, you'll preserve your coins at full market value (EV = 0.1) instead of the "likelier" event of getting paid in cash (EV = 0.5 * ~0.18 = 0.09).

I'm pretty skeptical of Mt. Gox recovering or depositors getting paid back only for cash--so why is the price still driving to zero?
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