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1  Economy / Economics / Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation on: January 20, 2022, 09:09:52 PM
The Federal Reserve has released their white paper on CBDCs.

Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation

The Federal Reserve is asking for comments on their paper, so it is my intention to take the most notable points in the comments below and submit them to the Federal Reserve.

The Executive Summary introduction:

Quote
For a nation’s economy to function effectively, its citizens must have confidence in its money and payment services. The Federal Reserve, as the nation’s central bank, works to maintain the public’s confidence by fostering monetary stability, financial stability, and a safe and efficient payment system.

This paper is the first step in a public discussion between the Federal Reserve and stakeholders about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). For the purpose of this paper, a CBDC is defined as a digital liability of a central bank that is widely available to the general public. In this respect, it is analogous to a digital form of paper money. The paper has been designed to foster a broad and transparent public dialogue about CBDCs in general, and about the potential benefits and risks of a U.S. CBDC. The paper is not intended to advance any specific policy outcome, nor is it intended to signal that the Federal Reserve will make any imminent decisions about the appropriateness of issuing a U.S. CBDC.

Note: This topic is moderated. Comments that are not related to the white paper will be removed.
2  Economy / Economics / Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon -- Milton Friedman on: November 15, 2021, 07:04:21 PM
Politicians are telling us that the current level of inflation is caused by "supply chain issues". That is a lie. They are lying in order to hide the fact that rising inflation is a direct result of their policies.

The truth is what was said by the famous and highly respected economist Milton Friedman said: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." The problem is not the supply chain. The problem is that the huge influx of money into the economy from central banks and governments has fueled a tremendous surge in demand.

Companies can't find workers to fill the demand. Why not? Because the government paid everyone a bunch of money so they don't need to work. This is shown by the fact that the labor participation and unemployment rates are both low.

3  Bitcoin / Electrum / OP_RETURN transaction returns error on: September 03, 2021, 11:48:08 PM
I am trying to use Electrum to burn some dust UTXOs (547 sats) by creating a custom OP_RETURN transaction. Everything seems fine until I broadcast, and then I get this error:

Quote
The server returned an error when broadcasting the transaction.
Consider trying to connect to a different server, or updating Electrum.

The transaction was rejected because it is too large (in bytes).

Here is the "pay to" line (basically OP_RETURN <random 16 bytes>, 0):

Code:
OP_RETURN B03240B863832E01B44D3BCBC8308E8F, 0

Also, when I export the transaction and try to broadcast it through various sites, they have problems with the transaction. Here is the raw transaction (go ahead and try to broadcast it if you like):

Code:
0200000000010166988a1d333797b5c3cbf24b26212205d023f0ff8c7392f41594b1dee4ea953c3801000000fdffffff010000000000000000126a10b03240b863832e01b44d3bcbc8308e8f02473044022055022ae713c275e3feb37dd48f19bf07bc190e2f382038e3328e6ad939f93bbf0220431bc40ba285e9f167d45afd62986358f461744d0c301423e09aa2e1dc5874c1012102b514df7be7511c3baf72afb6df5d5cdcbd9989ef0ef1b294c5be9c7b28f68f2018aa0a00

This has worked in the past, but now it doesn't. Does anyone know what might be wrong and how I can succeed?

I am using Electrum 4.1.4 on a Mac with various servers.


4  Other / Off-topic / Electric Universe debunked on: September 01, 2021, 04:34:04 PM
We all know about flat earth, but there are some other crazy alternative theories about the cosmos that just won't die.

Here are some videos to watch:

Electric Universe debunked: https://youtu.be/T9q-v4lBGuw?t=75
SAFIRE debunked: https://youtu.be/vmVdPgkudC8?t=127
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / A potential solution to sending the wrong token on: August 31, 2021, 06:25:57 PM
I'm not that familiar with Ethereum, but I constantly read about people sending the wrong stablecoin to an exchange, and that the money is lost because the exchange doesn't support that coin. I was wondering if creating a special protocol for sending tokens would help.

The protocol would simply add the first 4 bytes of the contract's address to the destination address. The sending wallet would simply compare the suffix to the token being sent to make sure that the correct token is being sent. This does not guarantee that the wrong token is not sent, but the odds of sending the wrong token by accident are 1 in 4 billion.

For example, instead of telling you to send USDT to 0x71C7656EC7ab88b098defB751B7401B5f6d8976F, the receiver would tell you to send it to 0x71C7656EC7ab88b098defB751B7401B5f6d8976F-af5dcebb, where af5dcebb is the first 4 bytes of the USDT contract's address.

Does that work?
6  Bitcoin / Legal / Bitcoin as legal tender has huge legal implications for Bitcoin in the U.S. on: June 05, 2021, 11:37:56 PM
Presently, Bitcoin is considered by the U.S. government to be a "convertible virtual currency".

The term “virtual currency” refers to a medium of exchange that can operate like currency but does not have all the attributes of “real” currency, as defined in 31 CFR § 1010.100(m), including legal tender status.1515. CVC is a type of virtual currency that either has an equivalent value as currency, or acts as a substitute for currency, and is therefore a type of “value that substitutes for currency.”

(m) Currency. The coin and paper money of the United States or of any other country that is designated as legal tender and that circulates and is customarily used and accepted as a medium of exchange in the country of issuance. Currency includes U.S. silver certificates, U.S. notes and Federal Reserve notes. Currency also includes official foreign bank notes that are customarily used and accepted as a medium of exchange in a foreign country.

According to FinCEN guidance, if Bitcoin becomes legal tender in El Salvador and is used as a medium of exchange, it would no longer be classified as a "convertible virtual currency" or even "virtual currency". It would become a "real" currency.

That would result in a huge legal change in the treatment of Bitcoin. The laws and regulations that apply to it as a CVC would no longer apply. Instead, I believe that it would be treated as a foreign currency, with all the laws and regulations surrounding that.

I'm not an expert on foreign currency regulations, but I do know that one change would be that small amounts of a foreign currency can be spent or converted without being taxed. No more need to track every single time you spend or trade bitcoins.
7  Bitcoin / Meetups / Who is going to Miami? on: May 19, 2021, 04:06:39 AM
I'm going to the Bitcoin 2021 Conference in Miami. Who else is going?

Day 1: the line to get in is literally a mile long
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Craig Wright's Latest Escapade -- Give me the bitcoins I stole from Mt. Gox! on: February 26, 2021, 06:25:58 PM
Craig Wright (aka Faketoshi) is once again making legal threats that can only be described as absurd.

In this round, his law firm sent letters to developers and organizations involved with BTC, BCH, BCHABC, and BSV, claiming that the developers must give him access to the coins at two addresses or face legal action. According to the letter, hackers managed to obtain the private keys to these two addresses on February 5, 2020 and then erase the originals.

1. One of the addresses appears to hold bitcoins stolen from Mt. Gox. Why would Faketoshi implicate himself in the theft of bitcoins from Mt. Gox?
2. Apparently, Faketoshi couldn't be bothered to back up private keys containing millions of dollars worth of bitcoins. That fact damages the credibility of his claim.
3. The demand is impossible to fulfill, at least for the BTC and BCH chains.
4. A letter was sent to his own BSV developers.

Here are  the letters: https://www.ontier.net/ia/a1letter-before-action-from-ttl.pdf

Obviously, there must be some rational motive behind this. I can think of two possible motives:

1. The purpose is to establish the claim that Faketoshi once had a lot of bitcoins, but now he no longer has any. Perhaps this is preparation for the classic "I lost my keys in a boating accident" defense. It looks like he has lost the lawsuit by Ira Kleiman, so he will be on the hook for a lot of bitcoins, and he might be trying to plead poverty in order to avoid having to pay.

2. There are about 110,000 coins at those two addresses, and the BSV is worth about $20 million. He might be laying the legal (and moral) groundwork to justify confiscation of the BSV from those two addresses. That is something that he probably could pull off.
9  Economy / Trading Discussion / Is this you? on: February 19, 2021, 07:15:34 PM
A great documentary film about the new generation of investors.  Grin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPyVrQ-IbPc
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Bitcoin Core is unresponsive when synchronizing with the network on: February 07, 2021, 12:33:23 AM
I don't run Bitcoin-qt continuously, so it takes a while to synchronize whenever I start it. The problem is that during this synchronization period, the UI is frequently completely unresponsive. Sometimes, I just want to look at the wallet and I don't care if it is synched or not, but I end up having to wait for a long time because it is so unresponsive.

Is there a configuration setting that will help? If not, then this seems like this is a problem that should be fixed. Should I post on github?

I am running 0.20.0 on Windows 10, i5-7600 @ 3.5 GHz, 4 cores, 16 GB
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Grayscale Digital Asset Investment Report Q4 2020 on: January 18, 2021, 12:15:34 AM
Grayscale's 4th Quarter 2020 report was just released:

https://grayscale.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/0121-Q4-Grayscale%C2%AE-Digital-Asset-Investment-Report.pdf

Summary (my emphasis in bold):


Q4 2020 Investment Highlights

    Total Investment into Grayscale Products: $3.3 billion
    Average Weekly Investment – All Products: $250.7 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust: $217.1 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Ethereum Trust: $26.3 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Digital Large Cap Fund: $1.6 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Products ex Bitcoin Trust: $33.6 million
    Majority of investment (93%) came from institutional investors, dominated by asset managers.

Year Ended 2020 (“YE20”) Highlights

    Total Investment into Grayscale Products: $5.7 billion
    Average Weekly Investment – All Products: $109.8 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: $90.0 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Ethereum Trust: $15.2 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund: $1.4 million
    Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Products ex Bitcoin Trust: $19.8 million
    Majority of investment (86%) came from institutional investors, dominated by asset managers.

The Takeaway

2020 was a hallmark year for Grayscale and digital assets more broadly. Thank you to the community and our investors for making it possible. We are proud to share data that reflects the massive adoption throughout 2020, and specifically, 4Q20.

$3 Billion Dollar Quarter: Grayscale experienced unprecedented investor demand, with approximately $3.3 billion of inflows. Investment into the Grayscale family of products surpassed $5.7 billion during 2020, more than four times the $1.2 billion cumulative inflow into the products from 2013-2019.

Since inception, the Grayscale family of products has seen nearly $6.9 billion of inflows. 

$20 Billion Dollar AUM: Grayscale began the year with $2.0 billion in assets under management and ended 2020 with $20.2 billion. In 2020, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was among the fastest growing investment products in the world, growing from $1.8 billion to $17.5 billion AUM.11 This is an incredible testament to the maturation of the digital currency ecosystem.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Inflows Outpace Mined Bitcoin: As we have noted in prior reports, the inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have continued to grow as a percent of mined Bitcoin. This metric is significant because miners are known to be the market’s natural sellers, often using their newly mined Bitcoin to pay for operating expenses. In 4Q20, Bitcoin inflows were approximately 194% of mined Bitcoin.

However, these comparisons are simply to illustrate supply and demand in the market. They do not provide insight into the destination of any newly mined Bitcoin during the measured periods.

Institutions are Here: Institutions have historically accounted for a majority of Grayscale inflows. This was especially true in 4Q20 as institutions accounted for 93% of capital inflows, or $3.0 billion. This may not come as a surprise given the recent flurry of news that institutions have warmed up to Bitcoin. Indeed, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust accounted for 87% of all inflows to our product family, the highest proportion since 2Q17, further evidence of institutions looking to Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

The average commitment among institutions is also growing at a significant pace. The average commitment from institutions was $6.8 million, up from an average of $2.9 million in 3Q20.

Surging Demand from RIAs: In 4Q20, Grayscale received substantial inbound interest from wealth managers interested to learn more about Bitcoin to satisfy the growing number of client requests. This is part of an emerging trend of the last six months that is critical for continued adoption.
12  Other / Meta / Bitcointalk Hall of Shame on: January 17, 2021, 08:43:59 AM
Who are the most prolifically bad posters on Bitcointalk?

Criteria for nomination

The poster must:
1. post an excessive number of posts or post frequent walls of text, and
2. require careful study in order to be understood, and
3. show lack of logic and reason and exhibit a potential disconnect from reality.

Note that basic grammar and spelling mistakes are not sufficient, and poor English by itself is not a criteria.


Not Criteria

1. Spammers
2. Scammers
3. Bounty program posters
4. People you don't like.
5. People you disagree with.

My nominees:

cryptoboss2020:  over the last 6 months, cryptoboss2020 has posted an average of 4.8 posts of utter nonsense each day in a variety of forums.

Example:
In my indestrstood the cbdc are not and coin but its a Word of regulations
The usdt dai usdc will be regulated and called first CBDC COINS.  
BECOUSE of this pandemic uk might be first one to start use usdt usdc and dai

I guess here is way to make profit to sell coins to others becouse they need CBDC approved payment Method


OpenCryptoSystems: In just the last month, OpenCryptoSystems has made over 90 posts that rival those of cryptoboss2020.

Example:
If someone is good with money it means he or she knows a lot about money .
You can say that you are not interested about money and financial system...welll the covid 19 was good example tgat you need to know about money

Before the covid the richest people sold their assets why so ? You think it was inside info ? No it wasnt they just know about money

And crypto is money and when you dont know about money then you shouldnt be in crypto ...
Or you stay in crypto learn hard and its a miracle you learn more about money


Now days when we face the facts that  most of the money will go in. Crypto and stock commoties markets and real business ownership will need to have state licenses ....
The you realise that you must learn.
...those main things :

When the economic circle start amd when it finish
When to buy and whem to sell
How to know if its just FUD/ shake out the weak hands or actual financial liauitity crisis ?

...[snip]...

World is scam and fraud so you better learn how the scammers and fraudsters will try to scam you legally and not so legally but its all scam so scam

Honorable Mention:

Polo7: Polo7 hasn't been around since last November, but the brief appearance included some bold and ridiculous predictions that never panned out. I wonder if Polo7 is the same person as OpenCryptoSystems.

Example:
Governments all around the World Secretly start using together with banks the bitcoins.
Oil is done so They replace bitcoin instead of oil.

The btc volatility might go like daily 50k-100k price Changes.

Bitcoin will be instutionalized permanently.
The Global market prices Liqutation postion will be fluctuated by Bitcoin price.

I said this before but nobody didnt listen but now its here!!
13  Other / Beginners & Help / How Replace-By-Fee (RBF) an Child-Pays-For-Parent (CPFP) can speed up confirmati on: January 13, 2021, 08:58:30 PM
This is a technical explanation of how RBF and CPFP work. Sorry, it is not a tutorial because their usage depend on your wallet. Also, note that even if your wallet doesn't support RBF or CPFP, understanding how they work gives you other options.

Replace-By-Fee (RBF)

RBF is straightforward. A stuck transaction is replaced by reusing the same coins in a similar transaction that pays a higher fee. A miner can only confirm one of the two transactions, so they will confirm the one that pays the higher fee. If the fee is high enough, they will confirm it immediately. The lower-fee transaction becomes invalid, so it is just discarded. Generally, your wallet must support RBF, because it normally won't allow you to reuse the same coins in another transaction.

Child-Pays-For-Parent (CPFP)

First, CPFP is based on an important requirement for confirmation. A transaction is funded by previous transactions, so in order for a transaction to be confirmed, the previous transactions that fund it must be confirmed. For example, suppose address Y is funded by this transaction:

     XY

Then, in order to confirm a transaction sending from Y,

     YZ

the transaction XY must be confirmed first. (Side note: both transactions can be confirmed in the same block).

Now, let's say that you spend the bitcoins at address A, sending them to an address B plus a change address C:

     AB + C

You post your transaction, AB + C, with a low fee.

To speed up the transaction's confirmation, the owner of B can use B in a new transaction paying a very high fee, or if the transaction has change, C, you can do the same with C.

     BD, or
     CE

If the transaction fees for BD or CE are high enough, a miner will want to confirm them immediately. But, the miner must also confirm AB +C in order to confirm either one of them, so the miner will confirm it also.

In essence, the follow-up transaction is also paying for the previous transaction. Note: Some wallets do not allow you to spend unconfirmed outputs, i.e. you can't spend B or C until the stuck transaction is confirmed.


From: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/kwo7b9/explaining_of_cpfp/
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Why did I receive 547 satoshis? on: January 06, 2021, 11:30:54 PM
[snip]

No need for another post. Here are some others to read instead:

You are not the only one here, there many other people receiving a few amount of satoshis into their wallets for no reason. After a quick research, I saw mostly high rank and old forum members are receiving these satoshis. Here is another forum member talking about this case: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5275441.0
I would suggest you to read this topic here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5175238.0) by @fillippone, where he explained about dust attack.

Here is a guide showing how to dump the 547 satoshis if you use Electrum: https://gist.github.com/ncstdc/90fe6209a0b3ae815a6eaa2aef53524c
15  Bitcoin / Legal / Donating Bitcoin and IRS form 8283 on: December 27, 2020, 07:34:02 AM
I am thinking of donating more than $5000 worth of bitcoins to a charity and I am not clear about how to fill out IRS form 8283, especially the part where you must have the donation appraised.

Does anyone have any experience with this?

FYI, I want to donate the bitcoins directly rather than selling them first because I can avoid paying taxes on the donated bitcoins.
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin search results spam using DuckDuckGo on: December 13, 2020, 07:36:48 PM
Someone has figured out a way to spam DuckDuckGo, making it so that searches for topics related to Bitcoin come back with hundreds of sites all linking to u s t r a d e r s j o u r n a l . c o m / b i t c o i n.

Up until now, I had a strong preference for DuckDuckGo over Big Brother (Google), but now it has become useless.

Any suggestions?
17  Economy / Economics / The volatility in the price of a bitcoin is falling over time, or not. on: December 10, 2020, 12:38:53 AM
The following chart shows the volatility in the price of a bitcoin since the beginning. Each point shows the coefficient of variation for the year or month surrounding that date.

The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility. It is the standard deviation relative to the mean.

Previously, I stated that the volatility is falling over time. If you look at long-term graph, that seems to be the case. However, the volatility as measured by the 33-day CoV seems to have actually risen slightly over the last 7 years. My explanation is that even though adoption has increased tremendously, the use of Bitcoin as a savings device has removed enough liquidity from the market to counter the effects of adoption.


Long term:


Short term:


Edit: Updated as of 2022/05/17
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Will Eat the World on: November 26, 2020, 10:15:54 PM
There is an apocalyptic scenario in which Bitcoin eats the world. In this scenario, a bitcoin becomes so valuable that no other activity is worth more than mining bitcoins, and all the power and resources in the world are devoted solely to Bitcoin mining.

I am interested in exploring the ramifications of this scenario and the conditions necessary to reach it.

The economics of mining dictate that the cost of the electricity necessary to mine 1 bitcoin approaches the value of 1 bitcoin. Therefore, if 328500 BTC is mined each year (6.25/block) and 26 PWh of electricity is produced each year with a value of $2.6 trillion (at $0.10/kWh), then the cost of mining will approach the value of all the electricity produced in the world at about $8 million per bitcoin. That implies that at that price, all of the electricity in the world will be devoted to mining bitcoins.






Note: this is a moderated topic. Off-topic replies will be removed. I'm not interested in price speculation and unsupported claims.
19  Other / Off-topic / I expect this to become a major Flat Earth breakthrough on: September 03, 2020, 09:06:58 PM
Basically, researchers have found a way to turn buoyancy upside-down. I imagine that flat-earthers will find a way to spin this in a way to support their gravity-doesn't-exist arguments.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/watch-levitating-upside-down-boats-flip-law-buoyancy
20  Economy / Service Discussion / Purse.io is shutting down on: April 16, 2020, 09:29:58 PM
Purse.io is shutting down. They haven't given a reason yet. This is bad for Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/PurseIO/status/1250876045693157377
https://support.purse.io/en/articles/3851246-closing-down

Update: Well, the situation seems to have changed ... https://support.purse.io/en/articles/3851246-purse-is-saying-goodbye
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