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Long time lurker - first time poster. I'm still new to the bitcoin community, and am a total noob when it comes to mining though it has certainly piqued my interest. I've done some reading and research on my own and am hoping someone can take a look at some estimating I've done and let me know if I'm on the right track, or if I'm not considering something, or if I'm entirely off altogether.
I'm particularly interested in the BFL "Jalapeno" unit which is advertised to do 3.5 GH/sec for $150... source: http://www.butterflylabs.com/order-form-bitforce-sc-jalapeno/ - It interests a noob enthusiast such as myself as it provides a much much cheaper barrier to entry at $150 and still has what seems to be a great upside. Here's where my math comes in - I've taken a look at past difficulty increases and the length between and by how much on average the difficulty increases and am trying to find out how profitable mining with a $150 ASIC is going to be in the long run.
For the attached image I made the following assumptions:
- The price of BTC/USD would be $10.00, I have no idea how realistic an estimation/assumption that is but that's what it looked like it's been going out at.
- The days between difficulty increases would be static
- BFL claims they will ship the units in October - I assumed the 15th
- The increase in difficulty would be static.
- The increase in difficulty won't change after ASICS hit the market - I know I'm wrong here, but wasn't sure by how much the difficulties would increase
Am I right to assume at the current conditions I could make ~$91.47 per week mining 24/7 at 3.5GH/sec?
Am I right to assume come October 15th, if I'm mining 24/7 at 3.5GH/sec I would be earning ~$72.61 per week?
In that case I just don't see the downside in pre-ordering one of these if they will literally pay for themselves in 2-3 weeks and then anything else made is pure profit?
Thanks in advance for your guys' help, criticisms, and pointers.
