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By now I suppose most of you have read the news. http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/17/facebook-pay/What does it mean for the BTC price in the long and in the short run? Post here your thoughts. ------- Brain dump follows, beware likely incoherent blurbs ahead Personally I'm worried for btc price. Why? Because it cuts directly into one major use case for bitcoin, for me. One can organize a Facebook event, and get payment in advance for restaurant, hotel room or trip expenses. Everyone and their mom is on Facebook! They will go through the effort of connecting their bank accounts to Facebook because network effect. I know I would do that myself. It's so much better than organizing paid for events using meetup.com + bank transfers. Or bitcoin. When everyone will have happily surrendered their identity and control of their money in exchange for ease of use and safety net of big brother Facebook, who will eventually care of using bitcoin instead, other than a bunch of freak techies like me? Of all the times I've seen this downtrend and thought we will eventually go up, this is the first time I genuinely feel fear for the long term. My head is making up analogies with MySpace social network or OggVorbis audio format. Like bitcoin not becoming the digital currency of choice to price anything as in my dreams, but instead just going in history as an attempt to a digital gold substitute, which eventually failed to succeed after a relatively promising start. Just like when I bought OS/2 Warp and convinced my father to use it. Call me a troll, whatever, I don't care. This is an emotional post. In Reddit it would just be downvoted to oblivion. |
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(if you haven't done so already)  Red line = Est. on-chain daily USD transaction volume divided by 200000. |
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Hi guys,
I just preordered one today. It is denominated in USD I think (because Xapo did not really give me an option to choose the denomination). Which is fine for me - I'd use it for buying from non EU-based shops.
Can you share your experiences? How long did it take from preorder to arrival?
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Extrapolation from my own stupid chart says $280 is the bottom, in a couple of depressing months from now. This might change, of course. No, I am not selling any coins. I understand that in order for bitcoins to get legitimacy, they need to be spendable. People need to start thinking of prices in coins not fiat. And I'd love to put some of mine to work e.g. spend some on paying bills and buying groceries. But none of those options are available to me. Xapo cards are unreliable and hard to obtain atm. Xapo said they will send them out with USD, EUR or GBP denomination but so far they only send them out with denomination in USD. So even if I used one of these to pay for groceries, I'd have to pay currency conversion fees from my currency to USD. Compare to my supermarket (not me) paying the debit card purchase fees to the debit card processor. With bitcoin I can order takeaway food, which is unhealthy and more expensive than me cooking at home, especially considering I am a good cook  Also takeaway.com does not have as much of a choice of places as a bigger competitor here - which does not take bitcoins. I can order gadgets from abroad on Overstock/TigerDirect - but I get ripped off on shipping expenses and customs. Besides, I buy lots of non-food stuff in my favourite Chinese marketplaces that don't take bitcoins because stuff is way cheaper over there. Simply put: no one beats AliExpress, once you know exactly what to search for and once you can tell most scams from the good stuff. Maybe I can buy flights and hotel accommodation with Cheapair/Expedia (I say maybe for the latter because I do not know whether they take bitcoins from EU customers) - but then again I can as well do the same with Skyscanner/Trivago and a credit card and I generally find better deals. I can go to the only bar in town that takes bitcoin - but in fairness the process is more cumbersome than just using cash, because there is a currency conversion involved. It would be different if the beers were just priced in bits - but I understand they can't do that. Also it is a good bar but not my absolute favourite place anyway. So the coins stay in the wallets, waiting for better times to be spent. |
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"Fair price" = just a name for Estimated on-chain USD transaction volume / 200000.  So we are witnessing the equivalent of the drop from 7.5 USD to 4.5 USD. Therefore, as it stands, I believe the real bottom is below 300 and above 200. As it stands now there is no chance it can stay below 250 for more than a day. Unless the USD transaction volume also drops in the next few weeks. On a more facetious tone... maybe we are here:  |
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I calculated a ratio USD transaction volume vs price. I am not an expert but I believe this measures money velocity?  My logic being that in a healthy market the ratio should stay constant over time, or slightly increase. When the ratio goes up, bitcoin usage goes up (currency case) and the economy grows. When the ratio goes down, bitcoin usage goes down (store of value case) and the economy shrinks. Economically I am a noob so this logic is probably flawed; tell me why and how. |
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Random google search picture of a Chinese lamp post  Are you a bit more relaxed now? Remember April/May 2013, after the FinCEN ruling, when western exchanges were dropping like flies, because bank accounts frozen or plain theft? The big bitcoin fuckup of 2013? When BTCUSD painfully and slowly slid from 130 to 90, with a few bulltraps along the way? Well welcome to China fuckup in 2014. With the difference that China is a corrupted country governed by thieves whose agenda is unclear, even to themselves. (Yeah, worse than US). Pricewise, I speculate that such lack of clarity may prolongate the pain. In 2013, the real bottom came only two months after bad news. Also the hodlers' and the potential investors' minds are now clouded by the (legitimate) suspect that the price has been propped up all along by Gox cooking their books. Most acquaintances of mine that know I am involved with bitcoin did not have an opinion about bitcoin in 2013. Now they think that I'm some sort of gambler, or worse that I am involved in criminal activity. I'm serious. Even IT people. It is almost shocking to me, to the point that I do not bother talking about bitcoin anymore. The masses are reactionary by nature, and hence they'll stay poor by design. There is a reason why they vote for thieves, keep the same job until they lose it, and live all their life in the same country. It gets darker before the light comes. |
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Update from their blog https://blog.blockchain.com/2014/03/11/service-affected/We are experiencing a technical problem with a server node. Some services are affected temporarily. We are working to restore things as quickly as possible.
If you’re experiencing any difficulties using our services, please be patient and we’ll inform you when this issue is resolved. Thank you!
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IMHO There is not a hope we are going to see 620 any time soon. Monday 10AM Japan time a phone number will be very busy crushing hopes (or worse, giving false hopes and prolonging the agony) and making headlines that will possibly give the market an excuse for next drop.
Mr. American Joe Goxxed has suddenly discovered the risks of trusting some website with his coins and money (no matter how popular), and won't likely touch Stamp either, because it is another foreign exchange, or BTC-E that is run by whothefuckknows*.
Other selling forces are hodlers that bought above current price and are slowly losing hope. Oh, and bitcoin thieves (likely including MK himself).
OTOH thanks to the recent headlines, some people just awoke to the idea that bitcoin is worth shit. Bullish! Blockchain.info is at 1.3 million wallets and still growing. New waves of people will enter the game in time, maybe with a small sum on Coinbase, because whynot, but only when they will think the price is right. Everyone wants to catch the bottom and most people miss it, of course. My friends who do not have bitcoins say now they would buy at 100-300. So based on sampling their opinions I expect a painfully long bottom somewhere around 350.
I'll be a happy person if this post proves to be wrong because I hate long downward slides. I am facing my own fears and greed.
* Note: This is not a stance against anonymity. You can do what you want with your money as long as you accept responsibility for your potential losses.
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... and the real 2k wall at 550. Since a few hours every time we drop close to 560, big buys happen. I speculate that the owner of the 2k wall at 550 is in fact the buyer by classic by-the-book wall manipulation. Let's see how long it will last ad what happens when he's done... the result is not certain at all: depending how much dry powder he has, he could as well create enough momentum for an uptrend that he'll later want to play downwards.  Thoughts? |
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As per subject - my intent being "testing the waters" and monitoring the situation. If your withdraw has reached your bank, please share. If not yet, please share at least date and time, and then update the thread when you receive it. Thanks
NB BitStamp has not the best support ever but also they never goxxed me. My only ever trouble with them was caused by a mistake I had made pasting a btc address.
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Are the various Robocoin, Lamassu, CoinKite etc... Operating at all at the moment?
What about Coinbase?
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... Was the minimum for last hour. sgbett (was it you that made the 666 bet?), someone here is taking the piss.  |
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Blast from the past  |
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I know - screaming "manipulation!" at big dumps is so 2011 - but still:  Whoever is executing these big market sells while paying so much in slippage is either very stupid or cleverly motivated. |
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as per topic.
Sorry can't post pic right now
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Let's be honest. Collapse started before bad China news.
(insert picture of "bubble" from btcchina last two months here)
The market simply does not believe that bitcoins are worth that much. YET. Period.
Average Joe doesn't give a shit about paying for stuff in bitcoins rather than using his credit card, or sticking it to the Man, or the fact that we have the first working example of real cross-border currency and global transaction ledger. He's too shortsighted to understand the scale and meaning of the bitcoin revolution.
Average Joe is playing Speculation 101: sees the price increase, thinks he got lucky; next all he cares about is that he needs to guess the right time to pull out from the bitcoin blackjack table.
Most self-appointed traders are trying to profit from the loss by dumping and hoping to buy back lower. Most of them are like lottery winners who aren't prepared to manage their new found wealth and hence will lose all of their "wins" in a few weeks.
The crash is revolving and homegrown. The fall will slow down, then come to a grinding halt not before a few bumps. When the dust will settle, a new generation of Joes market makers will replace the current ones.
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Just a thought I have today.
Generally the alts take a major bashing when BTC goes through a correction but it seems to me this is not much the case.
See for yourself. While BTC is stuck around 890 at Stamp, LTC is at 32 USD as we are speaking. That other unnamed bad joke of a flawed altcoin that is promoted by Keiser and friends is also rising. Not to talk about mastercoin that is not even functional yet.
Hence I conclude that some money is flowing out of BTC to go into altcoins.
Considering that those altcoins have almost no merchant accepting them, why on Earth are people buying them? It kinda feels to me like this is the ultimate gambling game where every self-taught trader is trying to outsmart everyone else by guessing when to pump and when to dump this or that altcoin. I am afraid this game is also the major BTC price driver atm.
Or?
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September 2012: My bank sends me a letter. They refused my loan application. It reads between the lines: "No because fuck you".
September 2012: I empty my little savings account from that bank and convert it all to bitcoins. Because fuck them.
Sorry for useless self-celebration post but since a few weeks I'm on a natural high.
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