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21  Other / Off-topic / 2013-02-14 Cargo Cult - Keiser report 406 - Warning no bitcoin on: February 14, 2013, 10:04:55 AM
The first part of this Kaiser episode is about Cargo Cult science

Introduced by Richard Feynman in 1974 to describe sciences that are not really sciences, but religions akin to the cargo cults that developed amongst primitive people after westerners had visited and left.

Although Feynman did not use these as examles, I do think they fit perfectly:

a) global warming
b) current mainstream keynesianism

This is Keiser and his partner Stacey Herbert about the money printing cargo cult
22  Economy / Speculation / Speculation is on: February 13, 2013, 12:35:56 PM
1. Have the knowledge

2. See the future

3. Spot the opportunity

4. Have the means

5. Be able to take action
23  Economy / Economics / Dethroned on: February 13, 2013, 01:00:29 AM
Greenspan, Benrnake, Keynes and especially Krugman will be detroned, just like John Law.

Paul Robin <-> Ron Paul, almost the opposite. Incidental? Hardly.
24  Economy / Economics / Which country will be the first to use gold? on: February 04, 2013, 01:11:48 AM
Use gold as in private coinage, coins used in day to day trade, free exhange, free import and export.

Which country would use gold, if the dollar tanks?
Which country will use gold, when the dollar tanks?

My guesses:

1 India, since gold is already widely distributed amongst the population.

2 South africa, as they have gold mines and already have krugerrand as legal tender.

3 Australia, because they have lots of gold mines.

4 Argentina, because they have problems right now.
25  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Naming of bitcoin fractions on: January 29, 2013, 09:50:23 PM
Ultimately this will be decided by cultural evolution, or maybe by the unwashed massed, but, fellow pioneers and entrepreneurs and visionaries , think about it:

I like the engineering notation: millibitcoin and microbitcoin. This balances nicely with thousands and millions on the other side of 1. See below for additional cultural names.

I do not like centibitcoin or bitcent. Why? A hundreth part feels inconsistent with billion, millon, thousand, a thousandth and a millionth. Also it is not so extendable. What about the next step? A ten-thousandth? In everyday life, it is not at all difficult to count to more than hundred. We have no problem grasping what a price of seven hundred and fifty is. Some even prefer to go beyond 1000, saying for instance twelve hundred dollars in stead of one thousand, two hundred dollars. Conclusion: centibitcoin or bitcent is not necessary, millibitcoin is satisfactory.

So far so good. What about the satoshi? It is a hundreth of a microbitcoin. I feel the dissonance. It was unlucky that it was not a trillionth or a nano. This is nailed, nothing can be done now. The satoshi is baked. But we can still use nanobitcoin as a unit, even if it is not possible to pay a nanobitcoin, currently. This is the situation in many countries, things are still priced in Ýre (centicrown), but it is impossible to pay such a small amount, the smallest coin is the crown. Sum a few items to 57 nanobitcoins, round to 60 (6 satoshis), pay.

Cultural names. In addition we need cultural names for millibitcoin, microbitcoin and nanobitcoin. Personally I wish that it was some historic money unit names. Not units that are still in use somewhere, and not units of mass (weight). Not names that hint to hundreths. Not names that refer to the money stuff.

Suggestions: shilling, penny farthing, drakma, scat, baug, mongol
Your suggestions here:

Yes I know we can not decide now. Users in the future will. Still, fun to think about.

Billion said I? We don't need no freakin billions.

26  Economy / Economics / The dollars mightiest enemy on: January 29, 2013, 03:21:51 PM
The dollars mightiest enemy: no, it is not bitcoin - it is the government itself. Printing money is to the dollar as Krypton is to Superman.
27  Economy / Lending / Low life loaners on: January 22, 2013, 07:47:13 PM
Why do people feel the urge to to send money to some low life loaner for two days?

This did not happen in the usenet era, the fidonet era nor the bbs era.

a) Because it is so easy to shoot over some coins.
b) <your suggestion here>
c) ...
28  Economy / Speculation / A dollar a week on: January 22, 2013, 06:42:23 PM
13.5 + 52 = 65.5 by year end
I wouldn't be surpriced.
29  Other / Meta / donator 10, vip 50 on: January 19, 2013, 09:37:27 PM
Would you kindly reconsider the "prices" for donator status and VIP status - just to underscore the concept of benevolent deflation...
30  Other / Politics & Society / The market and the state on: January 19, 2013, 12:07:51 AM
The market consist of free individuals and other legal entities engaging in voluntary exchange.

A corporation can live forever as opposed to any individual, and can also be dissolved. In case of a limited corporation, it does not have to pay its debt.

A state is obviously also immortal, has monopoly on violence, and can impose taxes. The violence part seems contrary to free as in free market. Can a state be regarded as a form of corporation, or is it some other kind of animal entirely?
31  Economy / Economics / The situation around the time of the MtGox crash on: January 13, 2013, 10:17:42 PM
I wasn't around at the time.

I believe, as I suppose most others do, that the current value is partly a result of speculation about future use value of bitcoin as money.

Now, it seems to me, should there be another disappointing public relation event, and the dollar price of a bitcoin should fall say 30%, I would not be worried. For instance if BFL should reveal itself as a scam, that could scare som potential new adopters, but I think this will reverse itself in a matter of months.

So the question, at the time of the MtGox event in june 2011, were people worried that the whole bitcoin system would fold? I mean not one or two, but a substantial number of people. How many were involved in bitcoin at the time? Was it mostly miners?
32  Economy / Speculation / bitcoin market on: January 02, 2013, 11:04:58 AM
The bitcoin has traded essentially between 13.0 and 13.5 for weeks now. Excluding the smallest bids and asks, the spread is mostly around 0.07, or .5%. This is only enough to cover the expenses to mtgox, not to cover for exchanging between dollars and other currencies or investments.

The so called walls, or large buy or sell orders well outside the current equilibrium, does not really convey information, as it is not backed by action. Someone could place a sell order on 16, but as it could be weeks before we come there, the order could be cancelled. Conversely someone who would sell at 16, would not necessarily place an order now, he could just as well wait until we pass 15. So basically, it is only the orders around the equilibrium that conveys meaningfull information to the market. What is 10 k coins anyway, it is just one days volume at the lowest volume for weeks.

The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

Most people are not aware of the looming crisis in the dollar or the bonds or whatever gets it first, they are unaware of the bogous economic parameters put forward by the Fed (CPI, GDP, money velocity...). New users, who discover that bitcoin as sound money could be used in stead of gold, value shares, and of course dollars, seem to be slow coming. It also appears that someone discovering bitcoin and its virtues, does not jump right in but needs at least a couple of months before he aquires a substantial amount of coins. Still, I think there are some newcomers all the time, enough to soup up the continuing block rewards. Most people who are in, want to stay, only some early miners may find they have a lot, and want to reduce to secure their current gains. They don't necessarily consume or invest in dollars, they could move to value shares, gold, or other sound investment, just different from bitcoins, for diversification. Anyway, these surplus coins will sooner or later be exhausted.

In short, I sense a slow and mostly stable upward trend.
33  Economy / Speculation / Bernanke sightings frequency and forecast on: December 31, 2012, 12:12:23 AM
In the olden days, before Greenspan, the Fed's market operations were exposed to the market after the fact, it was not supposed to create immediate speculative decisions in the market, rather the effect should softly trickle into all aspects of economic life. Greenspan started the custom of arranging decision meetings and press conferences at fixed times, declaring the Fed's intensions and also the most probable decision on the next meeting.

But one of Bernankes fads is, in additon to manipulating the money system, is to also manipulate the general publics opinion on what the future brings. Therefore his speeches also brings a general economic prospect. Now: Inflation (meaning lowering of the exchange value of money) is currently not a problem (and we can fix that when it arrives). He probably does not really mean that, as the inflation (of money supply) and (the consequent) devaluation of the dollar is a means to confiscate some of the publics money, and suck value out of other countries.

Anyway, as people slowly discover the effect, they will counteract it using contracts with price index clausuls, and generally keep the cash level as low as possible.

To counteract that again, the Fed will increase the inflation, that is increase the rate of increase of the money supply.

And now to the point: To support this, and continue the deception, his press conferences (or other sightings) have to increase in frequency. I think his last speech was of December. He said, if we go over the cliff the Fed can't help.

Well I think he thinks he can, but first he will let the politicians pee in their trousers. I forecast the the next Bernanke sighting will be Jan 1, or at latest Jan 2, and the message will be comforting to investors.
34  Economy / Speculation / So you dropped 100k BTC on MtGox... on: December 21, 2012, 08:33:47 PM
That is smart for you.
Paying down the mortgage, painting the house.
Diversifying some of it into gold, you never know.
And the yacht you rightly deserved.
Thank you for being entrepeneural and help kickstarting this new currency.
You have made it possible for thousands new bitcoiners to get a share early.

So take care, keep warm, sleep enough, wash your hands often and don't eat to much sweets, so you stay healthy and live long.

Hope your other 900,000 BTC also will serve you well in the future.
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