There is a "sister" bank that actually holds the funds of gox in New york even though gox is based in Japan. It seems to me that if what they were doing here was simply attacking bitcoin then they would seize this banks funds but they haven't.

This leads me to think that they are just trying to control the ways you put funds into and out of gox.

Also under consideration was the idea of creating a regulated exchange, which would be the world’s first.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/42ca6762-bbfc-11e2-82df-00144feab7de.html#axzz2TEEOFhLG

In 8 years the block reward should be halved a couple more times.. so 25 > 12.5 > 6.25.

6.25 bitcoins per block reward!

whenever you buy something from a merchant that uses bitpay the coins are basically going right to an exchange. In this way buying things to help the bitcoin economy will actually lower the price of bitcoin the more it is done. Only when bitcoin makes a full circle and employees and suppliers are paid in bitcoin will that change. I don't see that happening for several years at least. (Okay the internet archive might do it a little bit)

I'm just looking at bitcoinity averages...

the 30day average of btc china is %4.40
the 7 day average is %5.41
the 3 day avg is %8.07
24 avg is %7.83


it looks like it might be growing.........
maybe?

[EDIT: I meant to post this in the speculation forum. Sorry.]

EDIT: I meant to post this in the speculation forum. Sorry.

I am really confused about this market right now. Here are my thoughts:

When you look at the chart of bitcoin this year one thing seems inescapable... that we are still overvalued. It almost seems as if bitcoin would have to violate some kind of charting laws to remain this high or keep going up........ but then I don't have much experience or trust in charts. It just looks that way.

There isn't much buying pressure or selling pressure. The price is stableish and the volume is dropping. This usually results in a breakout... buyers getting impatient and the price jumping. It almost seems though that all this new money on gox doesn't want coins at this price they are just waiting for cheaper coins. If they don't get the drop their money might just leave or wait longer for a price drop. But it seems like with the amount of people waiting to buy in cheap at 50-60 that the price will never be able to get that low any time soon.

On the other hand I think people are learning from panic selling that it might not be a good idea when you drop under 100 to keep panic selling because the price just rebounds.

In the next 6 months I can't really tell if the price will drop to 50 or rise to 200. My guess is somewhere in there!  Below 50 just seems too cheap when the question of whether bitcoin can succeed as a new currency is still up in the air and in doubt but looking positive (because of all the good news).

So here is my guess: we will see a slow increase to almost 120 by the weekend then a drop back to maybe 115... and next week we will see an increase to 130.

I never guess right though

Just curious if their holiday is over

so the first bubble had an initial spike, followed by a second smaller surge... followed by an ensuing crash over months.

do you think it will take months to determine if bitcoin will go down to sub 50?

if by the end of this month bitcoin is above 100 would you consider this to be different than the first bubble and a positive thing?


My thinking is basically nobody will want to buy bitcoins anymore above a certain price after seeing their value can reduce by so much so shortly. So if anyone sees a + 100 price they aren't going to buy.

On tuesday it will be an interesting day because if there is low volume that means sellers will be holding out and waiting for buyers but there are no buyers at that price. Price will plummet.

I think the next 3 days will be the only above 100 days in the next year(s).


the only part of me that thinks otherwise is just sheer numbers. If there are only 11 million bitcoins and now so many people know about them it still makes them very scarce.

I'm taking all my risk out of bitcoin so I was wondering what is the way to do this with the lowest fees?

if the amount is more than 10k should I aim for a certain amount each transfer? or all at once?

someone said the market was boring to watch... not today. I can't stop looking at it.


so now that more of the general public know about bitcoin..... will they see that since the price has crashed twice it is a bad investment?

the funny thing is even if the price continues to crash and has a low of like 60 for a year... if it's the same as the last bubble it is still a good investment.

the other funny thing is the fact that the original price crashed the day after western union said they were interested. This time it was the day after paypal said they were interested. You would think that would be great news.

I think 100 is some pyshological barrier...... if we don't regain it we may test 90 again

I think best cast scenario is we have another test of the 90 barrier (like there were 2 tests at 50 of the last crash) then a slow hold and recovery.

I think worst case scenario 60 is bottom for a moment sometime in the future.

Everything in this market seems to be accelerated... the bubbles going up seem accelerated. The crashes coming down seem accelerated.

But the fact that we haven't crashed deeper than 90 today might mean the holders of bitcoins are somewhat more mature than the last group overall?

just curious if you guys think it will.

wouldn't that be something easy to fix? Lag is already up to 3 minutes

Just saw a ton of coins get dumped. ANd i'm not seeing a huge immediate bounce back either

Here is what I gather from precious metals.. especially gold: the price is heavily manipulated.

The thing that occurred to me... you really can't manipulate the price of a commodity by buying up all of it to then try to corner the market and then flood the market with sales. The reason is as you buy the commodity up it gets more expensive and you end up making other people rich and not yourself. So instead of buying up all the gold........ banks (or whoever is in charge of this manipulation) simply go to people who have large amounts of gold and say hey can I borrow this? The large sums of gold are lent because they will be paid handsomely as a cut for manipulating the market.

Now that a large hoard of gold is "borrowed" it can basically be used to flood the market and outpace any buy orders. The only threat would be someone with such huge reserves of cash that they could buy all the gold and screw the manipulators.


Disclaimer: this is all just theory and I actually don't know much about gold price manipulation... it's just guessing.

so in the same way... right now the bitcoin market can be manipulated because it's so small. but once it's huge it will be harder to manipulate. Manipulators would have to borrow large amounts of bitcoins and then flood the market with them.

I've read and watched different things about gold and the one odd thing is how gold gets borrowed all the time. Why would you ever borrow gold instead of just borrowing money? I think market manipulation is the only real reason for it.

this weekend seems predictable that with the low volume trades are mostly steady.

but what next?

There are large sell walls up to 140... large buy walls above 120.

After seeing the price get bought up last week from like 120 to 160 are people really going to rush to buy up 135 to 160 again this quickly?

i'm guessing the price this week will be somewhere between 95 at lowest and 155 highest. yay.

https://www.google.com/?tbm=pts#hl=en&tbm=pts&sclient=psy-ab&q=%22bitcoin%22+-%22bit+coin%22&oq=%22bitcoin%22+-%22bit+coin%22&gs_l=hp.3...30487.38337.2.38569.14.14.0.0.0.0.717.1471.13j6-1.14.0...0.0...1c.1.9.psy-ab.oDf3XihKExM&pbx=1&fp=1&biw=784&bih=771&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&cad=b

tied your chips to the value of the dollar. In other words........ say you wanted to gamble with 200 dollars. You could deposit 200 at a gambling casino and they would issue you chips worth 200 dollars. At any point you could exchange the chips for 200 dollars worth of bitcoin (which could be more or less bitcoins than you initially deposited)

do you think it would be too much risk to the casino to do this? They could somehow use coinbase to do it. When you deposited they would convert your bitcoins into currency and simply by back when you cashed out. That would be like a 2-3% charge if they did that.

I was wondering... right now it's pretty easy to move your bitcoins around from exchange to exchange. But moving your money is a different ballgame

would ripple enabled exchanges one day be able to let you move dollars back and forth and do arbitrage that way? is that even possible?

There is around 19.5 million in bids and before the crash there was only 16 million. (I wonder how much money is ready to invest but not involved in some open order?)

There are 50k less coins on the market already than there were just a few days ago. I remember after the crash there was easily over 150k. Now it's under 100k.

Mt gox appears to have addressed some issues with their lag and DDOSing. They seem better than before. I haven't seen the lag creep up to 30+ minutes. I think i saw it at 1 minute at one point today.

A millionaire can enter the market now and only move the price 10% if they bought all at once. (with the sell walls in front of 100 it was actually much less than that earlier. I think just 3 dollars increment cost a million

mt gox appears to have increased their verification capacity and are processing faster now. The queue should empty faster but I don't know what the queue is. With only 100k coins on the market... if 100k new people come they would drive the price up to just get 1 single coin.

on a down note... it seems like mt gox is surviving but we are losing other exchanges. Bitfloors bank shut them down. Bitcoin24 shut down (but I heard some rumor that they will go up again?). All those projects for new exchanges that are in the works are probably still months or years away.

bitcoins press coverage continues to increase rather than decrease. Publications all over the world in many countries are releasing news... potentially expanding the audience of people that know of bitcoin to the many millions

I panic sold a good deal of coins at 55 should I try to day trade to get them back? It seems hard.

The weekend is coming so funds should halt which means we might see a drop at some point but will it be below 100?

the western union news was really interesting. before it was just a rumor of sorts. Now it's sort of official that they are looking at bitcoin. They are a huge company and could be the catalyst that bitcoin needs.

is it just me or are we jumping even more than before the crash? just today it was at like 91 in the morning and now it's at 111. 20% one day with no sign of retraction?