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1  Economy / Speculation / Another Bitcoin Analyst on: May 26, 2014, 08:26:05 PM
I'd like to share this chart with you from my blog (some of you have already seen this)...



I really think this chart is awesome.

What I've done is priced both Bitcoin and QQQ, a popular Nasdaq Index ETF, in terms of Gold (GC1!). This is so we can remove the goggles of inflation and gauge the real value of these price movements against a common denominator.

In doing so, we can see a direct correlation between the overall market (especially tech) and Bitcoin.

Consequently, this leads me to believe that analysis done on the broader markets can be used to predict bitcoin's price movements too. It makes sense. They're all affected by the same pool of capital.

The bottom line is, I think we're getting close to the end of a spectacular bull run for both equities and bitcoin.

Again, if investment in bitcoin is related to global capital investment (which the QQQ correlation attempts to prove), then this next chart is why I believe a large correction for the markets and bitcoin is impending (some of you have already seen this too)...



This is a chart of the SP 500 equities index. As you can see, we are reaching the peak of a converging pennant. With very little room to move and decreasing volume as it narrows. For the last 5+ years, prices have consistently held within the boundaries of this area. However, that can't last.

A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.


Granted, this is speculation. That's why it's in this area. I know it's not the "to the moon" analysis everyone wants to see either, but it might be analysis worth considering.

If there's enough interest in this topic, I can keep it updated with new charts as we go along.

Good luck!
2  Economy / Goods / . on: June 30, 2013, 09:58:36 PM
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3  Bitcoin / Meetups / Bitcoin Bonnaroo on: June 13, 2013, 04:26:08 PM
If you're at roo, lets meet up!

 Grin
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / ZhouTonged - Holding - Live from the Bitcoin 2013 Conference (funny) on: May 29, 2013, 01:23:16 PM





Enjoy!
5  Bitcoin / Meetups / Bitcoin NYC on: May 13, 2013, 12:02:43 AM


Welcome to New York City's dedicated group of Bitcoin enthusiasts and professionals!



BitcoinNYC.org

Launched with our first meeting held on March 26, 2013, we are an open-invite group that gathers together every week to help foster and grow the NYC Bitcoin community. We currently host discussions every Thursday at 6:00 PM, with each week focused on a different topic. Our goal is to provide a central location for newcomers, experts, and leaders in need of resources, support, and/or a platform on which to launch any Bitcoin-related services, events, or campaigns within the city. We have over 150 members and are growing very quickly. Our current space has been maxed out at 50 for the last few weeks, and we are looking to expand in the near future.


One campaign, launched by Maximo Joshua Rossi during our "Entrepreneurs Week" meetup on May 2nd, has garnered a lot of attention with the press recently:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/06/a-push-for-a-bitcoin-buttonwood/
http://spelunk.in/2013/05/06/josh-took-20120-satoshi-squares-historic-bitcoin-trading-event/

You can find his trading App here:
Satoshi Sqaure (project buttonwood) App





Aside from the meetups, we also offer press & media support, a forum, and a listings area for those in the city who would like post an ad about job openings, new services, exchanges, events, items, property, etc...

http://bitcoinnyc.org/listing/

To stay up-to-date with event times, locations, and discussions, join us on Facebook or Meetup!

http://www.meetup.com/BitcoinNYC/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BitcoinNYC/

We look forward to establishing a vibrant community here in NYC, and hope to see you all at our next meeting!
6  Economy / Service Announcements / Bitcoin NYC on: May 11, 2013, 02:03:06 PM


Welcome to New York City's dedicated group of Bitcoin enthusiasts and professionals!



BitcoinNYC.org

Launched with our first meeting held on March 26, 2013, we are an open-invite group that gathers together every week to help foster and grow the NYC Bitcoin community. We currently host discussions every Thursday at 6:00 PM, with each week focused on a different topic. Our goal is to provide a central location for newcomers, experts, and leaders in need of resources, support, and/or a platform on which to launch any Bitcoin-related services, events, or campaigns within the city. We have over 150 members and are growing very quickly. Our current space has been maxed out at 50 for the last few weeks, and we are looking to expand in the near future.


One campaign, launched by Maximo Joshua Rossi during our "Entrepreneurs Week" meetup on May 2nd, has garnered a lot of attention with the press recently:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/06/a-push-for-a-bitcoin-buttonwood/
http://spelunk.in/2013/05/06/josh-took-20120-satoshi-squares-historic-bitcoin-trading-event/

You can find his trading App here:
Satoshi Sqaure (project buttonwood) App





Aside from the meetups, we also offer press & media support, a forum, and a listings area for those in the city who would like post an ad about job openings, new services, exchanges, events, items, property, etc...

http://bitcoinnyc.org/listing/

To stay up-to-date with event times, locations, and discussions, join us on Facebook or Meetup!

http://www.meetup.com/BitcoinNYC/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BitcoinNYC/

We look forward to establishing a vibrant community here in NYC, and hope to see you all at our next meeting!
7  Economy / Services / Open source Bitcoin POS for Digital Goods on: April 18, 2013, 11:24:16 PM
Does there exist open source code for a digital Bitcoin POS?

For example, if I'm trying to sell blog viewings by creating individual bitcoin addresses to a specific customers, is there code that has been written to make implementation of this simple already?

Thank you!!

(noob question, im so sorry for asking this when im sure its been asked a million times. i have no idea how to phrase it properly for the search)
8  Economy / Speculation / It's okay, it's okay... everyone calm down, I have a chart on: April 10, 2013, 09:28:08 PM
 Cheesy
9  Bitcoin / Press / 2013-04-05 - ONTHEMEDIA - THE BITCOIN BUBBLE on: April 06, 2013, 02:29:44 PM
http://www.onthemedia.org/2013/apr/05/bitcoin-bubble/?utm_source=local&utm_media=treatment&utm_campaign=daMost&utm_content=damostlistened

is this a repost?

I heard it on WNYC last night while driving home... was so happy  Grin
10  Economy / Speculation / WTF is a bubble anyway? on: April 02, 2013, 10:08:03 PM
Is it this?



Or this?



Maybe this?



Possibly this?



Could it be this?








I'm unsure about all of those...

Though, I've heard these are definitely bubbles:









And this:



Also, this:



Here's another good one:



Of course:






So what's the difference?

I suppose, after analyzing the data, that a bubble is anything that goes up very quickly, and back down again just as quick.

Apparently, if it does not go back down, it is not a bubble!


So let me ask all of you something....


Who is to say that Bitcoin will ever go down?


As far as I'm concerned, this is the one I think we all believe is becoming worthless:





Not these:










Perhaps the keyword here is believe



Sure, your house many not have been worth a million dollars during the housing bubble, and you probably knew that....


But if you believe Bitcoin is actually worth even 5% of the currency markets, why should it be a bubble when it needs to increase to a million per before SLOWING DOWN?



This is just the start.



Fundamentally, I believe that Bitcoin is an incredible technology with novel properties that the world will want and is beginning to realize/use.

You can keep US dollars at your own risk, just like Cypriots kept their Euros.

I will keep my bitcoins, thank you very much.
11  Economy / Speculation / An applaud to TA is in order? on: March 28, 2013, 11:36:05 PM
Besides myself, Lucif and AFbitcoins also posted this before the corrective wave.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1695275#msg1695275
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=159796.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160239.msg1695461#msg1695461

You decide if you wish to ignore it, but if anything, a little TnA may help calm your nerves.

I know TnA always helps me to relax Cheesy
12  Economy / Speculation / Pick Your Channel, Bitcoin on: March 28, 2013, 05:10:02 PM


With all this great fundemental news (Bitpay, Coinlab, FinCEN, etc...) and now this:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/03/28/tradehill-exchange-adds-dark-pools-of-bitcoin-liquidity/

I'm betting UP  Cheesy
13  Other / Off-topic / The Drunk Thread on: March 22, 2013, 09:53:18 PM
I think there should be a thread dedicated to those who stumble upon these forums whilst ingoxxicated with alchohol.

Is this illegal?

Is a thread on being drunk illegal?

I dont know, and I dont care. I am drunk.

Post here if you are drunk too, whenever you are drunk. Spare the masses of your babblings and do it here.

Let's all get drunk together!

RULES: CAN NOT POST IN HERE IF NOT DRUNK. MUST BE DRUNK FIRST.

okay. that is all.

yay.  Cheesy
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Max Keiser - "Bitcoin Millionaire" - Heralds Satoshi's Bitcoin as "Cyber Christ" on: March 11, 2013, 03:25:55 PM
[NOT NEWS, JUST HILARIOUS] In case some of you missed this part of the actual video... (I've clipped it to 19 seconds)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?edit=vd&v=xnnOtdOcOFk

"Bitcoin Millionaire" Max Keiser passionately heralds a 'second coming' in the form of "Cyber Christ", Bitcoin and its anonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto.

I did laugh my ass off with joy, and actually agree with the sentiment.

Bitcoin has come to free us all with competition against the unchallenged, monopolistic Federal Reserve System.

Cyber Christ has returned, just like all those religions said he would Cheesy
15  Economy / Speculation / Hype Cycles: Natural Fractal Patterns of Human Behavior? on: March 06, 2013, 08:06:13 AM
There's just something familiar about this, but I just can't seem to put my finger on it...  Cheesy




First it was the Lulz Capital
Now it is the Venture Capital
Next it will be... Hedge Funds? Countries?


Bubbles? of Bitcoin

16  Economy / Service Discussion / Coinbase Users! Please Contribute Data! on: February 26, 2013, 12:51:31 PM
I'm wondering how often this happens, since they choose to keep secret their method of determining "high risk". I wish the poll could incorporate a few other factors. Regardless, I'm hoping it's a very low percentage, but we will see.

Derived from the concerns addressed in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144633.msg1559435#msg1559435

Thanks everyone!

 Smiley
17  Economy / Services / . on: February 21, 2013, 06:45:35 PM
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18  Other / Off-topic / Concerned about accounts at Coinbase... on: February 17, 2013, 01:50:34 PM
Bought 2 Bitcoins which came in on Feb 12. Was holding them for 30 days to increase my buying limit.
No transfers had been made since the 2 BTC purchase. Only another purchase for 10 Bitcoins.

Checked this morning and this is what I saw:



Balance: 0.00 BTC ≈ 0.00 USD

Glitch? It's a little scary... I sent Coinbase an email, just wanted to see if this has happened to anyone else.
Businesses usually aren't available for support on Sunday's.
19  Economy / Economics / Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: February 02, 2013, 10:57:48 PM
An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them.

I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter.

Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer



Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up.

Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down.

So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin.

Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20BTC to 10BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10BTC to 20BTC!

Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.



Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation).

MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes.

MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate.

When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC.

This leads me to the last section.



What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment.

What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy.

What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).

What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies.


Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin.


We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency.

Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range.

Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going...

Happy trading! Wink
20  Bitcoin / Meetups / New Jersey Meetup on: February 02, 2013, 03:33:54 AM
Anyone in the jersey area know of any meetups? Or are they all in NY?

I'd be interested in a good excuse for a drink Cheesy

Rutgers area!
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