[The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.]

back in 2008 when the financial crisis was going on and the banking system was failing like dominoes we saw bitcoin rise from those ashes with these words:
The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.

- in 2022 we have been seeing the same thing.
- the inflation rate went up a lot.
- to control it the governments decided to increase the interest rate.
- it could only slow down the rise of inflation rate and caused recession.
- the banking system started failing again.

the high interest rate means people with debt (which is the majority of population) were forced to pay back more money to the banks which meant they had less and less money to spend on anything else hence starting the recession. the recession that decreased the revenues of a lot of companies like in the tech field and like a chain it affected the banking system too.
this is why we saw the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed catastrophically, the second-largest failure of a financial institution in US history.
this is also why another bank, Signature Bank also failed catastrophically. a bank that shows another failure in the real estate and mortgage market just like 2008.
this is also showing up in the stock market as the stocks of these companies are dumping hard.

this is all too familiar, the repetition of 2008 but with some differences. this time China is not bailing US out buy purchasing its debt, in fact China may even dump the US bonds she has putting more pressure on US economy with its even increasing debt. the Dollar is also getting weaker since unlike 2008 the petrodollar is not dominating the world anymore. the energy price is also still high contributing to the inflation.
but the increasing recession, interest rate and unemployment is all the same.

so, what does this all mean for bitcoin?
bitcoin was born out of the financial crisis, we could even say it was created because of it so that people have a sanctuary they can flee to.
when we look at the charts we can see that during the time the banking mess has been going on and as they kept collapsing, bitcoin price keeps on rising. in fact it broke a major resistance at $25k which it couldn't break before thanks to the banks collapses.

i believe the more banks fail, the more bitcoin price is going to shoot up.
this year we could see much worse financial crisis and a much bigger bitcoin price rise in one of the biggest FOMOs that bitcoin has seen so far.

[Fearuary]

one one hand we have Omicron and the mark that it is leaving on the world economy.
on the other hand we have the bitcoin price failing to stay above $50k and all the FUD that came after that.

i can't predict the impact of all this on the price since the current $41k is already way below what the actual price should be, but i can expect a month or two of "fear" where people are scared of buying bitcoin and eventually start hoping for a drop so that they can buy more (something like what we saw during $30k period in the middle of 2021).

do you think January and possibly February could be the Fearuary months?

[Uptoberfest]

as the October began the festivities of Uptoberfest started too and with it a a strong positive signal shook the market. for the past week bitcoin price has been smashing new highs almost every day surprising everyone.

currently sitting at a whopping 37.9% rise the market is showing a lot of promise. but price rise is not the only gift of this festival. Uptoberfest brought with it the slow down of the FUD against bitcoin, the huge loss of shorters and finally the whalebears who are now at a crossroad needing to make a decision, either to continue losing money or get on the bull train.



with the $50,000 resistance under a barrage of buy orders we could see this Uptoberfest end with a new ATH.
those who took the fantastic discount of last month and bought bitcoin can now sit back, relax and see the rise unfold and possibly see $100k this month. but those who were fooled by the FUD have to now be filled with regret as they wantch the price grow.

it is starting with the first green dildo appearing today surprising many users and showed a small sign of FOMOs starting again as price suddenly jumped up to reach 39k in less than an hour.

this could be the beginning of seeing more green dildos indicating lots more FOMO to come.

we have seen the same FUD that has been spread over the past month for the past years too. they don't even change the contents or make any new effort, it is all the same and yet people react to it the same exact way by handing over their bitcoins to whales.

i am wondering how many more times are we going to see the same "China banned bitcoin" FUD before people stop reacting to it?
or is the market cursed and for the next 100 years we are going to see China ban bitcoin every year and people panic sell how many times can a country ban bitcoin anyways?

i have used arbitrage trading strategy myself but for altcoins only and whenever their price had a big difference. but i am curious what percentage is the ideal price different for people who use this strategy for bitcoin trading.

for example looking at Binance the price has been about $300 to $350 below the market price and that is about 0.83% to 1% difference which looks good enough for bitcoin with a highly liquid market to me.

[97.88%]

for those under a rock who don't know there is a soft fork coming to bitcoin to activate Taproot and improve bitcoin scripts (smart contracts) and privacy and also scaling.
the signalling was started last month and surprising enough in this period almost all miners are signalling for Taproot activation already (370 out of 378 according to taproot.watch website which is 97.88%).

if this continues (which it most probably will) Taproot is locked-in in about 11 days.

i have a good feeling that the timing is also perfect because the accumulation after this panic sell is going to be over by that time and the FOMO can start.
2 weeks from now we could be sitting at $70k.

[FOMO-speculation]

we've probably seen this pattern repeated hundreds of time in the past, and yet it happens again. people see some drops then suddenly the internet is filled with a lot of FUD and eventually a lot of weak hand traders dump in a mass panic scenario.
i'm not interested in that part since it can not be predicted.
what i'm interested in is what comes next, it may come after the bottom was reached or it may come after a lot of attempts to create lower bottoms but it will come. people will start a huge panic buy spree and shoot the price up creating a huge volatility.
we've seen it with $4k, $6k, $10k, ... over the past year and we are going to see it again with $40k this time.

i want to start a new FOMO-speculation here.
when do you think the FOMO will begin and how big will it be?

i think if nothing unexpected happens we can see it in mid February and the size is going to be at to least $55k in less than 3 days.

today marks both a new price record for bitcoin in its decade long history and yet another case of a big FOMO that starts every time a major resistance is broken.
although we are going to see them quite often this year as this is going to be a bigger copy of 2017 as a fresh money starts coming into bitcoin once again.
similar to 2017 it could be expected that the trend continues all through the year with some slow down mid year with the real bubble at the end of the year.

what do you think?

We have seen this time and time again and will see it a million more times.
Price is stopped below a certain line and doesn't go above it for long times with multiple attempts to break that line.
That is the nature of always rising bitcoin to always keep going up until it reaches mass adoption.

Here is the most significant case we had in recent history


Now we are back again at another level repeating the same thing. This time at $11000

The real question is when will it break free?
The market seems ready. The whales have accumulated enough and weak hands are getting FOMO_y to start buying again.
I say thinks are looking good...

[bitcoin exchange]

i have been searching for a bitcoin exchange that is decentralized but i i have three problems:

1. some of what i find are not actually decentralized!

2. 90% of these decentralized exchanges are actually token swaps. but i have no interest in tokens, i am looking for an actual exchange where i can trade cryptocurrencies. i am not interested in tokens

3. finally it is the fees. it makes no sense to me to pay fees to a centralized authority while using a decentralized exchange! and sometimes their fees are also too high...

can you introduce me to an actual decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that has no trading fees (everything happening P2P)?

as we are getting closer to the halving and the recovery ends the price is starting to get warmed up for the big rises to start happening again.
on top of all that, we had all those panic sellers who are now left with a lot of fiat among them who were waiting for the dump to repeat so they can buy back.

here comes the FOMO...

surely enough within half a day price is nearly up $1000 and right now traffic to exchanges is increasing with crazy speed. the number of withdrawals are also so much that transaction fees have jumped up about 30 times...

where do you think the price will be by the end of halving event?

BIP141 says there isn't any interpretation apart from a "castToBool" but when i look at the code i can't find where this rule is enforced. all i see is that any other version bigger than 0 is simply skipped without any verifications.

it always returns true (ignoring the standard flag):
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/script/interpreter.cpp#L1551-L1556

every node keeps a database of the chain's state that contains the transaction outputs that are not yet spent. but among these outputs there are some that can not be spent unless a fork changes the script rules.
i am wondering whether anyone has ever looked into this to see what percentage of them are unspendable. i am guessing it shouldn't be that high due to standard rules.

edit: here are two examples to understand what i'm talking about:
txid:outindex

Code:

6d5088c138e2fbf4ea7a8c2cb1b57a76c4b0a5fab5f4c188696aad807a5ba6d8:0
OP_DUP OP_HASH160 0 OP_EQUALVERIFY OP_CHECKSIG

result of HASH160 is 20 bytes and it will never be an "empty byte" or OP_0 so this script must always fail.

Code:

6e2c9ece8a7c29e81adfd03bc4c4914812107236fa42038d8e8013063f3d1af8:1
OP_IFDUP OP_IF OP_2SWAP OP_VERIFY OP_2OVER OP_DEPTH

there is no OP_ENDIF anywhere after OP_IF

unlike companies with their stocks in stock market bitcoin
doesn't rely on human contact to work,
it doesn't rely on import/export from other countries such as China to function
it doesn't need employees to come to work or not
....
when stock market crashes it is because the companies are having a terrible time making ends meet and are currently losing millions of dollars.
meanwhile bitcoin is working better than ever and it has been accepted as a legal currency in multiple countries over the past 2 weeks.

the only conclusion remaining here is that manipulation is decreasing the price and the media is blaming Coronavirus, stock market crash, .... for it while none of them are the real reason.

i'm looking to exchange a small amount of bitcoin to tether but i have never done this before in anywhere other than a regular exchange which i don't want to use this time. i am looking for a more decentralized way in a site like shapeshift for example that doesn't require KYC or any kind of registration.

additionally do you know any tether wallet i could use to receive and then send it later locally that also doesn't need signing up on a website or KYC,...?

as we entered 2020 and the first week is coming to an end, price has picked up and started heading towards $10k as it was expected before.
like all the previous times i again expect another FOMO to start due to this rise that would bring the price up in a sudden and big move. the only question remaining is about when it is going to start.

we saw a small version today as price jumped up from $7300 to $8300 but that is the small FOMO. i think we can see price easily jump up above $10k when it starts.

over the past 2 days that we saw a small 9% drop i have seen all kinds of so called "speculation" where people are seeing all kinds of doomsday scenarios. in some cases it is wonderful how their imaginations work. from simple whales manipulating to the good old China bans bitcoin has been the heated topics over the past 48 hours!

what happened? price started a tiny rise then the FOMO kicked in pushing the price back up. guess who was FOMOing?

i am always fascinated by the FOMOs that keep happening in bitcoin market. earlier this year i created two topics on two different occasions about it the small inital FOMO in first stage and another FOMO with a bigger leg up.

with the current situation where price has come down below the $10k support line and the fact that a lot of weak hands were flushed out, i am guessing pretty soon after the drama ended we are going to see another FOMO market shape up bringing in a lot of money like a tsunami. this time if the momentum could build up we could see $20k before the end of the year.

what do you think about the size of the upcoming FOMO? can we see a bubble in short term this time or will it be like last time (small just to kick start the rise)?

[the error in the final calculated value is smaller]

Hash Rate is the number of hashes that are being calculated every second while mining bitcoin. the problem is that miners don't report how many hashes they calculate, we don't know how many miners there are, blocks don't store "h/s" anywhere, and we have no way of actually measuring it.

what we can do is to come up with an estimation of the rate based on difficulty and the time it took to find certain number of blocks [1]. it is an "estimate" because the time between blocks is not fixed, it is random due to the chance-based nature of finding a hash that satisfies Proof-of-Work condition. and also difficulty is fixed until 2016 blocks are found. so when you do the calculation in a shorter period of time you sometimes end up with big ups and downs.
another interesting thing is that if you do the calculation on your own and choose 2 random times as the day's start and end (like from 2:35 PM yesterday to 2:35 PM today) you end up with different values.

in other words this chart: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days
that is being advertised today as the cause of the "drop" is nonsense. if you want to look at a better hashrate estimation closer to reality look at this chart:
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days&daysAverageString=14



it is the average in 14 days which is teh difficulty adjustment period and since the time frame is bigger the error in the final calculated value is smaller hence the smoother chart instead of zig-zag-y one.
of course there is always hashrate fluctuations as miners come and go and it is visible on this chart too but nothing drastic as they are spreading all over the internet today!

[1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty#What_network_hash_rate_results_in_a_given_difficulty.3F