...Is that what's happening right now? The classic age-old investing advice? Everyone's buying like crazy on the "rumour" in preparation for a big dump on the news? It would have to be a pretty big dump to counter-act the sudden mining supply halving, but whatever, sentiment can be pretty strong in either direction.

 

[CUSTOMIZE YOUR OWN BITCOINASHLEY INVESTING PORTFOLIO !!!]

Hi friends, I am going to ask you for some investing advice! As this is the "speculation" subforum, and I am looking to "speculate" with some capital, I figured you all would be able to help!

Somebody recently gave me $4000. This $4000 I have to hold onto for approximately 4 months, until I am supposed to use it to buy a used car for them that will be available at that time (the seller is out of country at the moment and the buyer is leaving the country in a month.)  

Anywho, so in the meantime, I have this $4000 USD. What the fuck do I do with it?

1) Hold onto $4000 phyz cash
2) Put it in a bank account that gets something like 0.1% interest.
3) Put it in a 3-month-term CD that gets something like 4% annual interest
4) Put $3000 into a CD (the minimum), $900 into Bitcoinz, and $100 into a couple altcoins.
5) Put $2000 into a bank account with 0.1% interest, $1800 into Bitcoinz, and $200 into a couple altcoins
6) 25% in bank account and 75% in bitcoinz/altz
7) 2 DA MOON BABY (all of it in bitcoin.)
( 8 ) CUSTOMIZE YOUR OWN BITCOINASHLEY INVESTING PORTFOLIO !!!  

So things to keep in mind:

• I have enough money to replace if it's all lost, but I'd prefer not to have to do that because that would obviously suck
• In terms of risk tolerance, I wouldn't mind having to replace, say, 10% of the $4000 if Bitcoin really went downhill; as that's part of taking a risk and "speculating."
• Obviously how much might be lost or gained depends a lot on our speculation of how the market is going to do in the next 3-4 months.
• Please don't whine too much because THIS IS THE SPECULATION SUBFORUM and speculation is perfectly normal and acceptable here.
• No, I'm not being dishonest and mis-using someone else's money, because as far as they know, they're getting their $4000 back after 4 months whether or not I lost it when Bitcoin crashes after the block halving hype ends. I am financially solvent and responsible with money.

Ok go.    
 

A friend just sent me this chart with lines on it, and it conclusively proves that we will be going "2 Da Moon Soon." 

I'm installing the latest version of Armory on Debian 7.6.

Under "Ubuntu/Debian" packages I downloaded the .deb "0.92.1 for Ubuntu 12.04+ (64-bit)"
There were only two listed as "Ubuntu/Debian" and they were both offline packages.

When I tried to install the .deb file, I got this:

Code:

This package is uninstallable
Dependency is not satisfiable: libc6 (>= 2.14)

No, 'sudo apt-get install -f' will not work because it is a non-satisfiable dependency.

The version of libc6 I have installed is: 2.13-38+deb7u3

That's the latest version according to Synaptic.

What to do? 

It worked on my last deb7.6 install but I think it was a prior version...

Yeah, Stamp is going crazy, after hitting $538 yesterday we're already back above $700. Which kind of tarp do you think this is? Gogogo

Yeah that's right, all you retarded HODLers thought Proudhon was trolling, well he wasn't, and all that confirmed bad newses is coming back to bite y'all in the butt!! How does it feel? How does it feel? $350 coins in a week, sell now and double your BTC, only fools don't take advantage of such an easy trade!
Speculate away, bagholders 

EDIT $712 at stamp, we'll touch the $600s within 24hours, mark my words. =D

[$165 promotion]

Hey all, I know the whole 0% trading fee has been the hot topic in terms of China volume, but now BTCChina has a new trick up its sleeve:

$165 promotion

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-china-accepting-bank-deposits/

BTC China has also launched a promotion to bring awareness to its Maker-Taker programme and reward its customers.

Maker-Taker is a system whereby those posting multiple buy/sell offers and increase liquidity in the market (“makers”) are paid a fee, whereas those who take the offers and remove market liquidity (the “takers”) are charged a fee of 0.3%.

Until 15th February, company is giving 1,000 RMB ($165) to one maker and one taker every time the amount rebated to makers exceeds 100,000 RMB.

“The prizes go to the maker and the taker who push the rebate threshold over the next 100,000 mark. We have already given out over 3m RMB in rebates and given prizes to 62 winners,” Lee explained.

He went on to say BTC China’s domestic competitors charge 0% commission, but he believes Maker-Taker is a more compelling deal. Lee said:

    “Obviously if you’re a taker, to go and buy and sell bitcoin actively, you have to pay a small commission, however, the reason you pay for that is access to the liquidity and the depth of our order book.”

Because of this model and the depth of the order book, BTC China states customers can easily buy and sell tens of thousands of bitcoins without moving the market.

“We’re not trying to be different for the sake of being different. We’re trying to be innovative and benefit bitcoin in China. The Maker-Taker method accomplishes two things – it brings more market depth and more liquidity to the site, plus it reduces volatility, which makes for a healthier for market for bitcoin in China,” Lee concluded.

What do you think? Instead of offering 0% trading fees like other Chinese exchanges, they have a rewards program where those who provide liquidity to the market (and thus make BTCChina more attractive to large investors who loathe slippage) are given an incentive to keep providing this much-needed liquidity.

If you do a lot of trading, i.e. if you would potentially qualify for these prizes, does this attract you? If you were eligible, would you consider using BTCChina for this reason? Or would you prefer a different exchange with 0% trading fees.

As annoyingly bullish as I am, why the heck do we have a $200 spread? Ok, I know, gotta think in percents. What is that, like 20%? We haven't had that large a spread in a while.

Either Gox is going to slowly, painfully, and with much resistance, spearhead a massive rally... or it's seeing its dying days as the fiat increasingly leaves Gox in the form of BTC to the "easy-withdraw" exchanges....... that's been happening all along, but when the imbalance INCREASES is when it actually becomes significant. That means NO ONE has enough faith in Gox to jump on the arb opp.

Gox still has significant volume share among USD exchanges even though it's far from it's heyday as the 80% monster. Think it could pull price up? Stamp & BTC-e are saying "No Way!"

If the $200 spread increases even further, let's start to get worried, eh? =D

Yes, plenty of bad news abound - especially the confirmed, irrefutable russian and chinese language sources that Proudhon has been kind enough to call to our attention. And of course china's regulatory indecision.

But I just was exposed to a barrage... yes, a barrage!

-Tigerdirect now accepting (significant!)
-Can soon pay Australian bus fares with BTC
-Google hints that they are exploring options, although no current plans
-Wells Fargo confirmed exploring options, holding summit
-NY regulatory meeting approaching
-MULTIPLE bitcoin ATM installations worldwide
-At least 2 universities accept it for payment
-Porn.com
-Dimon and Lew both whine about Bitcoin
-Fiat currency is still being printed

This is all confirmed, irrefutable, 100% true, GOOD NEWS.

We've been trading in the same range, more or less, but who thinks this veritable stream of excellent news is likely to start pushing us in the UP direction? 2014 is NOT going to be a slow year, that's for sure, if the first month is any indication.

Please note that the same people who whine that "bitcoin can't be used for anything" (they're a little quieter now, that's for sure) are now going to start claiming that the ability of bitcoin to now actually be used for stuff, will have no effect on price. Such is life.

This subforum is literally BRIMMING with bear threads. Here's what's on the first page:

BTC Beginning of the End ! (igorr)
2014 could be a slow year for bitcoin (wobber)
SHOTRING BITCOIN: This is a good idea right now (proudhon)
Worst Case Scenario: Price predictions? (Opsamk)
bearish sentiment in a possible third wave (chessnut)
Do we know why the price is dropping? (Remember remember...)
Confirmed bad news sources thread - No FUD, just facts!!!1 (proudhon)
Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? (Edward50)
The age of KARHU begins....seek ye refuge in alms to the KARHU! (KARHU)
Time to dump BTC now I say (DustyRah)

So with this kind of speculation subforum sentiment, why are we still more or less in the same place we've BEEN...

Are the bears WRONG?? 

[“We have made enormous investments as a company and as an industry in a payments system that is secure, and we need to be sure we are up to speed with what other things are going on and their risks and rewards,” he said.]

News like this is why price still hasn't tanked 

Wells Fargo is desperate.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-14/wells-fargo-americas-largest-bank-market-cap-pushing-offer-bitcoin-services

Think it's a stretch to see this having an effect on price? It's a sign of legitimacy, a hint that large establishment banks have not only taken interest... but, they've TAKEN INTEREST.

Earlier we pointed out that mortgage origination at Wells Fargo - the bank's bread and butter - is crashing at an unprecedented pace, and as per the conference call, Q1 isn't looking any better. Naturally, it stood to reason that the bank would seek alternative business and product lines to supplant the declining revenue it used to generate when it would originate some $100 billion in mortgages every quarter, now half that number. However, not even in our wildest dreams did we predict just what this "alternative" product would be. Because, as the FT reports, Wells Fargo, the largest US bank by market cap, is currently exploring Bitcoin as just that revenue replacement source. Per the FT: "Wells’ anti-money laundering chief, Jim Richards, has launched a group to examine how it might safely offer Bitcoin-related services or banking arrangements to virtual currency entrepreneurs, according to people familiar with the initiative."

More:

    Wells chief executive John Stumpf said it was the bank’s practice to examine financial innovations.

     
   “We have made enormous investments as a company and as an industry in a payments system that is secure, and we need to be sure we are up to speed with what other things are going on and their risks and rewards,” he said.

     

    “We want to make sure we understand what it is, what it does and what it does not . . . . The world is changing and will continue to change. Whether Bitcoin will be a big part of that, who knows?”

As the FT accurately points out, "the difficulty in persuading financial institutions to offer bank accounts has become one of the biggest difficulties facing Bitcoin entrepreneurs in the US." Which of course means it is also a great opportunity for the first entrant, such as what almost certainly appears to be Wells:

    Wells’ public-private group, comprising more than a dozen members, was scheduled to meet in San Francisco on Tuesday to debate the security issues surrounding banking and Bitcoin. One possible aim would be to produce a set of anti-money laundering principles for established financial institutions to follow when dealing with virtual currency start-ups, according to a person familiar with the event.

Lol.

[2 Da Moon?]

Guyz, do you think we hit bottom and now it's time for a rally? Total trend reversal? Should I buy back in at $72 or I'll be regretting it later?  2 Da Moon?

Courtesy marvinrouge:

(Just in case you forgot)

The time frames were picked so that the "bubbles" lined up.

Some people think that because there was a small uptick recently, we're going to see that red line. "2 da moon!"
There were similar upticks in 2011 post-bubble. No doubt at that time, folks were like "But google trends started going up again... signifies trend reversal. 2 da moon!" Google trends went right back down, along with price. 10 points if you can link to a thread from 2011 where someone says just that.

You see what I did there? 

We went from like 99.77 to like 100.64 (approximate) and I feel that this <$1 price movement is so significant that I need to make a thread about it, so that we can make sweeping generalizations about Bitcoin's current state based on this <$1 price move.

Media attention is picking up. Good news coming in press section constantly. Great new developments and projects including the 100% trust-free lite node being developed by a full-time dev. Even Namecoin and Litecoin, the only altcoins worth a hat-tip, are seeing new dev work. Regulatory "hits" haven't actually been hits at all, just great ways to expose the socialist goons who are too scared of the state to comprehend a free bitcoin. Hey, don't judge them - WWSD?

Ok, now flame me for making too much commotion over this insignificant price move and spreading anti-FUD. God I'm so annoying.

Hey double digit believers,

In case you haven't noticed, there's been a concerted effort lately to keep the price AT OR AS CLOSE TO $100 AS POSSIBLE.

Somebody (Or group of somebodies) wants BTCUSD to be $100 for a while.

This person is REALLY GOOD at what they are doing, and have been VERY successful.

So, please, the second price goes from $101 to $99, that does not give you the license to FUD around "OMG back to double digits, no media attention, low volume, public losing interest, we're fucked, get out while you can." 'Specially when it touches $100 again within 10 minutes of you posting.

Look at the price history the past couple weeks, and observe the "deep pockets at work." Price-fixing is easy with low volume. Now, look at price history the past couple months. Highs are getting lower but lows are getting higher. We're in a high/low wedge of epic proportions and pressure is building. What happens next? Well, ask yourself how much faith you have in fiat currencies.
What do the nuts say? Deflation of USD first, then hyperinflation due to CB response and ongoing market frailty. Assbackwardation, free fall, fixed prices, hey, Venezuela actually has a toilet paper shortage, did you know that? So hold on to your bitcoins. Unlike fiat, they do not have intrinsic value as toilet paper so you might want to hold onto some Fiat as well incase the local Kruger's runs out of Scotties Thuper-Thenthitive. 

Recently there have been a number of threads specifically aimed at talking price down. One notable example is that guy "Oh I have insider information... I promise... :trlf:"

Do you think it will be successful?

Do you trade based on what trolls in the speculation subforum say?  

Be a part of history. Vote in the poll.

Hey, I just noticed there are two threads near the top of the page that mention $30 in the thread title. But bitcoins are $105. So now I want one too, just to be ironic.

Are there people who actually think BTC is going down to $30 anytime soon? Delusionally ranting about how "the real capitulation hasn't started yet" while not giving any legitimate support for the implication that we aren't currently in a capitulation period from the ridiculous $266 bubble? What do we think all the sideways motion has been from... maturity? Ha ha ha ha ha.

Discuss 

Also: I made a $30 thread at $105 before it was cool.

[BTFD]

Ok, so despite all the moronic newb threads predicting $20 by week's end, or "bitcoin is dead" (care to make the same mistake as Wired?), we have a situation where recently, some major HUGE dumps (we're talking $1 million, $2 million, $10 million) have sent price way down only to bounce back partway, trade sideways, then WHAM another dump. No, not "fundamentals have changed," no, not "all of a sudden adoption STOPPED" not "end game bitcoin." Just "Rich motherfucker dumps coins on our heads, demand isn't sufficient to absorb them." Simple. Get your heads out of your asses people and look around! 

So what are some lessons we can learn, instead of making stupid threads (Bitcoin down to $20) (OMG bitcoin is dead, I sux, I lost all my allowance money)

-If you lose money when price goes down (at least, if your trading stash loses value) you are DOIN IT WRONG. With volatility like this, it's child play. Make some money off of the idiots who think Bitcoin is going straight to the moon or crashing straight to $20, with no corrections, in the next week.
-If $10 of price change makes you think bitcoin is going to the moon or crashing to $20, you are DOINITRONG
-If you keep trying to call absolute bottoms and tops and losing money, you are DOINITRONG
-If you waste your time ranting about how bad hoarders/speculators are for bitcoins and how people should just spend their coins, you are DOINIT WRONG. Go make an alt-coin fork called KEYNESIANCOIN (oh wait, already done, called FreiCoin and PPCoin)
-If you are going to make threads crying and whining about how Bitcoin is doomed, what are you even doing here?

This PSA was brought to you by Bitcoin Irrational Bears/Exuberant Bulls and the money I've made off of them. Final message: BTFD. (STFP)

That's right folks, you heard it from me first! One panic-dump manipulator is going to market-sell >$10M worth of coins every single Sunday morning for the next 4 weeks, singlehandedly bringing us back to $30. Set those buy orders!

   

[USD is heavily regulated in Argentina.]

"But guys, regulation will mean it's hard to get bitcoins at an exchange. If the exchanges are getting shut down, it will be very hard to get bitcoins, and no one will care about them. Demand will go down and price will fall. Regulation will be the death of bitcoin! No one's going to bother getting Bitcoins if they have to find a sketchy OTC dealer or if exchanges only have a 50% float rate."

How many times have you heard that here?

How come the exact opposite is happening in Argentina? There is an "official exchange rate" between the peso and the dollar, but that is an artificial market with no volume/liquidity - i.e. there are controls on the amount of USD you can legally buy. USD is heavily regulated in Argentina.
What happens if you want more USD than the government will allow you to buy? You will have to go on the black market, which is what people are doing. You go to a shady guy on the street corner who's whispering "dollars" under his breath and looking around nervously because BOTH YOU AND HE ARE RISKING ARREST and you are paying 100% over the 'official' exchange rate. USD is heavily regulated in Argentina, and USD price is rising despite the incredible 'hassle' to get it.

Even if BTC exchanges continue to be shut down left and right, and the government places outright controls on Bitcoins, and the IRS spies on and rabidly chases down anyone even remotely suspected of having bitcoins - price will continue to rise.

I have always used the comparisons to drugs and bittorrent to illustrate how a regulated asset rises in price, and how a regulated asset that is digital and decentralized is practically impossible for law enforcement to shut down. They haven't even been able to shut down the centralized front-end of torrents, which are the websites that provide torrent downloads. So it is not too much of a stretch for me to suggest that regulation will not affect bitcoin for the following reasons:

(1) It is decentralized, so attacks can only be effective against the front-end. (refer to Bittorrent)
(2) Regulation can reduce supply but in many examples, it does not reduce demand (see drugs, and now the U.S. Dollar in Argentina.)
The argument most often made is that reduced supply will automatically lead to reduced demand because of the "hassle" to get it. Well, it's a hassle to get drugs in America and it's a hassle to get U.S. Dollars in Argentina. Both have seen steady price increases within the appropriate time period.

I have always argued that people who think regulation will cause price to fall, while simultaneously holding a position in bitcoins (whose protocol is revolutionary in nature and is absolutely destined to be heavily "regulated" on the front-end) are in a bind. They hold a position that is incongruent with their opinion on the effect of regulations on price, and therefore should either rethink their opinion or sell all of their coins.

Thoughts?