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1  Economy / Speculation / Fake selling Fake BTC on: June 19, 2022, 10:54:05 AM
I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.

Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.

occam's razor suggests it would seem that most exchange have a good amount of fractional btc that are being "made" and sold to real fiat buyers.

Haveing said that a good amount of "stable" coins are probally fake or not at face value. That is tether printers are buying BTC on exchanges. Some of which will not be redeemable.

So this goes in tiers.

The people who paid fiat for thier tether.stable will not get thier fiat back, and the people who then purchased BTC with thier stable will not get thier BTC back unless they move thier BTC of the exchange.

It is my understanding that all centralised systems become fractional, even if not meaning to just to the shear number of tranactions going on.
2  Bitcoin / Electrum / Address no BTC on Block chain explorer but I can not see it in wallet? on: December 27, 2021, 02:12:16 AM
EDIT Figured it out

Ok so what happened is I *sent* the transaction, at least the electrum walled show it as sent, but it was never actually sent / broadcast on chain.

I am not sure how the electrum wallet thinks this transaction has happened.

I probally have to reload the headers or something.

To get the right wallet I restored a wallet from the *zpub....* again.

So I have an address in my BTC electrum wallet (watching) and it shows I have some BTC on it.

However the I cannot see this btc on any blockchain explorer on that address.

There are no incomeing or outgoing transactions on the blockchain explorer on that address.

I can see all the other addresses in my wallter have that have BTC have the corresponding amounts on various blockchain explorers and are correct in all respects.

I have found he outstanding amount ON a different change address in my wallet.


For some reason the Electrum wallet has confused itself as what address the coins are on.

The BTC in the electrm wallet show the BTC is on the change adress one bellow where it actualy is.

When I make a transaction to sign, it is using the wrong address.

Thanks in advance.

What has happened here?

3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Shibu on: October 24, 2021, 11:26:40 AM

So I think Shib sort of hooked into where the feather coin and CNC left off.

The normies undestand a billion or millon of something is worth alot, thye fell that owning 100K is beter then sub fractions. The gen masses still dont realy get you caan buy fractional BTC an no one like to feel less than a whole.

Fort this reason haveing a coin where many and be million or billion "coin" token aires is fundamentallyu atttative becuase it is iunderstandable.

If nromies people undestood "sats" they would feel the same way.

I think shibs are going to get rugged hard, but it will surpass likely doge. Then get rugged.

The shibs feel left out becuase they were not into doge and t his is their cahnce.

I however also think its bad for crypto if Shib goes stupidly high, and it probally will at this point.

For risk of the rugening TM however it to high to enter at this point.

4  Other / Serious discussion / Block Chain is a general AI with a narrow obejective secure the blockchain. on: July 22, 2021, 12:39:30 PM
I am of the view BTC is the world's first general AI with a narrow objective to secure the blockchain.

It can and does do everything to optimize power to hash which secures the blockchain.

It happens to be mated to the human population at the moment on the basis it offers value via arbitrage of the valuation of everything in the world vs legacy FIAT. Robotic actors could increase fulfill this role.

whether etherium or some other become dominant is otiose. The proposition stands.

5  Economy / Speculation / Buy Sell analysis on: May 22, 2021, 12:37:30 AM
Because the number of bitcoins is known is there any good analysis of if buys of BTC balances with sells of btc over time.

that is you should be able to sum within say 5% error over an extended period of time if the sells match buys.

Then you could call out fake sells and buys by exchanges.

I personally think and have said that a lot of exchanges are selling fake BTC and also a lot of fake tether buying.

Any decentralized exchange has to become fraction either by intention to suck profit in a harder currency from you, or because you just loose track
6  Economy / Speculation / YAwn .dip before the rocket just shakeing out .... see you at 312K in Sep 29 on: May 19, 2021, 10:46:06 AM
as it says in the title
7  Other / Off-topic / New laptops etc CPU's mother boards on: March 19, 2021, 08:43:41 AM
At this point do you think the incentive is large enough so someone in the supply chain has included in hardware, eg in Apple silicon or similar that looks for and sends crypto-sensitive info back?

eg screenshots, privkeys, passwords to unlock encrypted wallets, keystrokes, copy buffer or something.

Eg even if you turn the wifi off it stores keystrokes and compy buffers are stored and set or similar.

Or it is written to a USB that you plug and that usb broadcasts when it has a chance. Eg, the same supply chain provides borh.

is a solution to use a pi and tails? or similar.
8  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Iphone attack/hack? I was asked for name, number and IMEI on: March 05, 2021, 11:27:13 AM
Ok so I went to get my iPhone screen repaired at one of those smaller shops (not apple).

After repairing my Iphone, with a new screen the lady asked me for

my Name

my Phone number


I Said why? she said for our repair records.

So I gave her my name and my phone number but a fake IMEI (out by a few random digits as I read them out)

Is it possible with a Name and Phone number and IMEI to fake your iPhone download google authenticator, or authy, and get into your Binance wallet accounts?

Can they get all the apps downloaded that you have on their faked phone?

Does this seem really sus? for what reason does she need that info.

Will I be safe having given a fake IMEI?

I had a total brain fart I usually never give out details.

9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / polkadot slashing power? Amenable to court order? on: February 10, 2021, 12:45:11 PM
So I am trying to understand who holds the slashing power in the Polkadot system.

[1] What bundle of people get to decide to slash a nominator and how much.

[2] How do these bundle of people come into power and who are they what quora is needed

[3] or is it all done by an on-chain contract?

IF [1] and/or [2], then, what stops a court order forcing them to slash all stakes at 100%?

(I add the people could be jurisdictionally diverse, but still doable if the number in enough co-operating jurisdictions are high enough).

10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Why was Musk so late to the party? / or Publically support BTC on: February 02, 2021, 12:13:12 AM
Musk was involved with paypal, and has access to a lot of high tech and high tech advisors.

Why then was he so late to support BTC?

11  Economy / Speculation / How many bears did that just kill? on: January 29, 2021, 10:15:48 AM
99% of everyone who was going to sell or short was obliterated in, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, and just then.

This is why I think maybe a lot of 'BTC' on exchanges are fBTCTM f= fake, so fakeBTC

There just are not enough sellers left to push the market down in any meaningful way.
12  Economy / Service Discussion / GENESIS tradeing interest rate and reliability on: January 21, 2021, 08:23:05 PM
What do you all think of

Reliable, risky?

Any exp dealing with them?

I noticed that luno ( uses them to get the % return on their product.

13  Economy / Speculation / Tether on: January 11, 2021, 09:31:50 AM
So I think even if FUD, the tether story has sufficient noise in the net to affect the price.

I had been expecting tether to die a few years ago. The fact that it hasn't is plus in my book that tether is legit.


the fact they have not been audited makes me think they are fractional reserve.

I also think most exchanges are fractional reserve in crypto.

In fact, except for signed addresses/crypto and dex/uni swap every other financial instrument is fractional, it's just a question of how much.

We have faked USD chaseing faked btc, so it should probably even out, excepting that real BTC is likely undervalued

I kinda wish tether would just go, take the BTC hit an carry on. However that's just wishful thinking, a new FUD will be invented and the cycle will continue.

Every Epoch will have its Gox.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Tether 15th Jan FUD, True, effects if tether is BTFO on market on: January 07, 2021, 10:53:00 PM
Ok for context, tether fud has been around from day 1, I remember it well and asked the question a few years ago why Tether had not collapsed.

I concluded that there was a lot of FUD around tether.

Now the 'meme's are

[1] 15th to produce documents to NYAG' and surrounding litigation and

[2] Tether is the main on-ramp for crypto funding.

[3] Tether pumps then the market pumps.

What is your view on all this particularly the 15th?

What I want to know who exactly sending money to tether and where from to buy all these USDT? and who is their banker? I mean the are presumably putting the USD somewhere.

One senerio....suggested.
>If tether blows initial panic selling will occur
>After initial withdrawals, exchanges won't be able to supply real USD for further withdrawals, because they won't be able to convert 1 tether for 1 usd (because tether prints out of thin air)
>that's when the shit really hits the fan, exchanges go bankrupt and real funds are frozen and can never be withdrawn, you are left with useless tokens.

So is this all FUD or what?
15  Economy / Speculation / The problem with selling BTC. on: January 04, 2021, 12:21:48 PM
While you could sell, the problem is while you may make a profit, say 2x, this doesn't count for much when BTC does a 10~20 x and then drops 50% 75% x even.

You're locked out of most of the next 10 x so for a momentary cycle of 2 x you give up access to 100x over a longer time frame.

That is you have to time buying back in, which is really hard. The upside risk makes this not really a viable strategy

And even if you do sell out and buy that other asset, you still have to look at that asset, for basically ever, and live with the fact BTC has gone 100x or more in the next 2 cycles and so on.

It's not like you get to stop watching the graph if you sell out, you just enter into the what-if realm.

The only solution it seems to at most sell very small amounts that have no real effect on your overall holdings even though it did cost you a lot. Eg a BTC in 600$ sale in 2016 or whatever cost you 29K now. Or maybe 20K for buying power since the printers went brrrr.

So of your portfolio, you can sell maybe 1~5% max over time.

Long term it seems we have to wait until BTC becomes the denominator that is the reserve world currency. Then we can but in BTC, and everything will be unstable compared to it or stabilize in BTC and that is 20 years off?
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Time to class action sue the SEC. on: December 24, 2020, 01:01:57 PM
A class action could likely be made out against the SEC by XRP holders.

[1] The SEC failed to act in a timely manner with respect to XRP allowing XRP to continue for 5 years with no complaint.

[2] The SEC's failure has contributed to or caused losses it's action now has directly or indirectly caused.

The SEC's filings admit they knew or constructively knew in 2013~2014

Edit Well this happened.
17  Economy / Economics / So where are all the normie Economists, Bankers, who said it was over in 2018? on: December 18, 2020, 06:03:11 AM
So where are all the normie Economists, Bankers, who said it was over in 2018? Silence "Chirp Chirp" Crickets. 

Do you think *they* get it yet, or is it rinse repeat 100k~200K, next cycle and at $1 M a coin they will "get" it then.

18  Economy / Speculation / So contrary to the Cult of Hodl, apparently at highs, people don't hold? on: December 11, 2020, 06:24:30 AM
The coins days destroyed indicated people sell more all-time highs

What do you think of this metric? good bad etc?

19  Economy / Speculation / 3rd times the charm 20K ok I was wrong, 6ths time the charm on: December 03, 2020, 08:31:46 AM
here comes the 3rd time for 20K I think it's going to do it. Then 30K pretty quick

edit 16.12.2020
annnnnnd we are through.....20500 as I watch now

ok, i was wrong 5 dumps from 20k.

I hope they were 100:1 leveraged bears.

edit 2.01.2021
annnnnnd there went the 30k pretty quick
20  Economy / Speculation / Starting to think exchanges are running fractional BTC on: December 01, 2020, 12:33:35 PM
Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.
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