I would like to point out to your attention recent blog by Arca: https://www.ar.ca/blog/crypto-market-recap-02-24-20.
They have raised important question about the future of Ethereum. Especially interesting place for insights is this quotation originally posted by Vision Hill:

... we are seeing that ETH is not (directly) capturing the value of all the assets launched on its platform; instead, value is getting captured in the applications. There are likely to be several reasons for this, but we think one theory summarizes it best: most applications and tokens (e.g., ERC-20, ERC-721, etc.) built and issued atop Ethereum may, in a large sense, be parasitic to Ethereum. ETH token holders, by holding ETH, are paying for the security of all these applications and tokens, via the inflation rate of ETH that is currently given to the miners. Therefore, ETH token holders are being diluted slowly, but the ERC-20, ERC-721 and other application token holders are not. Such token holders that are building and using systems launched on the Ethereum blockchain benefit from the security that comes from the dilution of ETH holders, but do not currently pay for any of it. As these token holders and smart contract developers utilize gas for transaction fees in order to interact with the base Ethereum blockchain, it does drive demand for ETH, but the problem (currently) is it drives demand for just one block, and then those transaction fees go straight to the miners (who are generally the largest sellers in proof-of-work systems).

My personal opinion is that we can capture more gains by investing in other tokens circulating in top of Ethereum (take as example LINK or SNX bullrun). So, basically, I own 20% of ETH and other 80% are dispersed betwenn other tokens circulating on top of Ethereum network.

What do you think about this? Let's discuss...

I'm thinking where we can attract referrals for good projects (not scams) bringing value not only for us but as well for them?
What services do you use? 

I have an idea to create a mobile dapp on android and ios to allow users to earn points and convert them to tickets for cultural events. Later I want to expand it in tourism industry.
The idea is simple, use dapp, discover historical objects or associated places with known historical figures, scan and earn points. Points can be exchanged in dapp to buy cheaper tickets for cultural events (city guide, concerts, exhibitions etc.).

Great thread on twitter by Mr. Brendan Bernstein inspired Fundstrat data. I will share it here as I think it is very helpful analysis.

1/ Are “alts actually back”? The crypto market moves in well defined cycles, and we just completed the 3rd major one. Inspired by @fundstrat, below is the best metric I've seen to show it: the % of alts (top 5-100 by MCAP) increasing 200% over 90 days.



2/ Howard Marks describes two ways to profit from markets: (1) buy more of what goes up and less of what goes down, and (2) cycle adjustment: building risk exposure when markets rise and reducing when they fall. Most people ignore the 2nd. Let’s dig in.
3/ Each cycle is more exaggerated than the previous. The first peaked at ~10%, the second >30%, and the last at ~70%. Absolutely crazy. 70% of alts went up 3x over 90 days. It was shooting fish in a barrel and way too overheated.

4/ Each time, the cycle peaks and sharply reverses back to near 0. The time on the way up and down is usually symmetrical. The most recent one just completed. A few questions: (1) What causes each cycle (2) are there predictive factors (3) What's next? Can we get a clue from BTC?



5/ Hopefully this doesn’t cause PTSD- let's dig into the most recent cycle w. BTC added. BTC went from $6009 on 11/11 to $19500 on 12/16. The % altcoins increasing 200% went from 3% to 71% on 1/13. BTC then fell to $5900 from the peak of $19.5k, retracing the full move



6/ BTC peaked about 34 days, or 27% into the cycle. This is also 54% of the way to the alt top on 1/13.



7/ After the BTC peak, alts took off for the next month. About 1 mo after the BTC peak, their MCAP (shown in green) fell from $187bn on 1/16 to $46bn on 4/7. Meanwhile, the % of alts increasing 200% fell and flatlined at 0%. The cycle played out: BTC —> Alts —> Overall pullback.



8/ What drives this? BTC runs the show as it’s the most liquid fiat on-ramp and most established asset. Before and during the start of each cycle, BTC price increases as more fiat comes into the space. As people are comfortable with BTC the new wealth trickles into riskier assets

9/ Going into each cycle, BTC dominance rises. As the 2nd cycle (04/17-09/17) progressed and turned into the next one, BTC rallied 240% more than an mcap weighted portfolio of the top 20 altcoins. After a large gain in BTC, you can see the peak as that money moved into alts



10/ Given most alt trading is against bitcoin and BTC is the best mechanism to bring fiat in, before alts can go on a major rally, it looks like *wealth first needs to be made* in BTC. If you look above, there is a lag between BTC and the alt cycle.First BTC gains, then alt gains

11/ Before last cycle, from 9/1 to BTC’s peak and the start of the massive altcoin gains, BTC dominance (shown in orange) rose from 45% to 65%.



12/ As risk tolerance and “house money” grows, the technologically weaker assets rise the most. B/c alts are more illiquid, each fiat purchase compounds price more. Sentiment gets out of control. The flippening is on the horizon. Its unsustainable and the *whole market* corrects

13/ How should we position ourselves now? Lets look at the previous, 4/1/2017 cycle to figure out. 1st, some similarities. During the cycle, BTC rose from $767 on 1/12 to $2910 on 6/11-a 267% increase. And prior to the cycle getting started BTC ran up from $572 to $1241 or 117%



14/ Before the cycle, BTC outperformed alts and dominance rose. The gains rebalanced into riskier altcoins that rallied even harder after. The wealth generated in BTC sows the seeds for the next alt coin rally. This looks almost identical to our recent cycle.



15/ Are alts back? Let’s look at the 2nd cycle again. As the cycle trended back towards 0, alts bottomed and even increased in USD terms. We're in a similar place now. The fall in USD terms ended then and it may have here too. But I wouldnt go chanting alt season just yet



16/ Traders need to keep in mind oppty cost. I’d argue that the big gains in alts — the super cycles where many rally 200%, can and will only happen after a large cap rally. There are still gains to be made in altcoins right now, but oppty cost may be high vs large caps.

17/ Before each of the last 2 cycles, BTC and large caps rallied 2-3x more than alts. Despite the altcoin usd rise, you would have done better by holding the larger caps. Pictures once again below.





18/ Before the next cycle, I’d look for the dominance of large caps to rise like it has before previous cycles. Prices are largely driven by liquidity. For another major super cycle to form there needs to be more fiat that comes into the system. Question is where that goes first?

19/ What to watch? The larger institutions who bring in new capital likely will do so through the more established assets. BTC dominance is up about 5% from the end of the last cycle on 3/1 from 40% to 42%. As this # changes it could be a good indicator of the market composition



20/ 1 good indicator to watch is ETH / BTC. Last cycle, ETH / BTC fell >50% as BTC rallied to highs. But on 12/11, 5 days before the BTC peak, it bottomed right before alts started to rally the most. ETH / BTC may be a good leading indicator to track the next major super cycle



21/ Disclosure: Long BTC

 

[Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).]

Very interesting article and conclusion. I tend to agree with researchers. Check this out:

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warningof market instabilities, quantifying a high crashhazardand probabilistic bracketof the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel’s back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).

Original source to download full research: https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05663

[blockchain your days are numbered]

Hello,

probably some of you know that Radix is building new technology not using blockchain. DLT is not a new thing but Radix DLT handles ~3500 transactions per second is designed to handle infinite numbers of transactions per second in the future. It is absolutely decentralized, super fast and extremely safe network. If all things will work (currently they are running most of the transactions on testnet), it will kill blockchain immediately. As the say: blockchain your days are numbered? What do you think about the future of Radix? Should we forget bockchain today?

p.s. Radix - no funding, no ICO, nothing similar to pump and dump schemes, only technology  

Website: https://www.radixdlt.com/

Hi guys,

here is a short guide how to buy the most popular cryptocurrencies with fiat:

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@arvydas/how-to-buy-xem-nem-tokens-with-fiat

 

Hi folks,

what do you think will happen if Bitcoin it will be rejected until 13th of March?

1. altcoins market booms;
2. money will flow into fiat;
3. people exit to precious metals
4. other scenerio.

Personally, my opinion is that ETF will be rejected but it will not affect BTC price seriously. It can drop to $1000-900 but I'm not sure. However I'm almost sure that some of alts can rise %100 and more.

[Overview of 25 projects being audited:]

Very interesting report was published by Chinese CERT:

In December 2016, China CERT released a 17-page security audit report of blockchain software. As per the report, the audit was conducted in October 2016 and released later as “open” document. The report examined 25 open-source blockchain projects, categorizing the vulnerabilities found into 9 classes. A total of 746 high-level attack vectors are detected. Ripple is rated the most insecure one with over 223 highly risky bugs.

China CERT,  the National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team/Coordination Center of China (known as CNCERT or CNCERT/CC) , was founded in September 2002. It is a non-governmental non-profit cybersecurity technical center and the key coordination team for China’s cybersecurity emergency response community. The CERT lab speaks highly of the global development around blockchain technology but also reiterates the importance of blockchain software security.

Overview of 25 projects being audited:



The 9 vulnerability categories were chosen for auditing:
1. Input Validation and Representation
2. API Abuse
3. Security Features
4. Memory Management
5. Time and State
6. Error and Exception Handling Errors
7. Code Quality
8. Encapsulation and hidden defects
9. Flaws in Code Runtime Environment



Vulnerability rating:



Results: Ripple the most insecure project

It is noteworthy that among all the projected being audited this time, Ripple is likely to be the most widely used one with the most users. At the time of writing, the software company has received 100 million USD investments from Google and Accenture. Some large financial institutions have announced their joining the payment network, including Standard Chartered, Westpac, Shanghai Huarui Bank and so on. Given the fact that Ripple is directly dealing with financial assets, should these loopholes be exploited by hackers, the institutions may suffer unimaginable losses

Ethereumj comes as the second most risky project with 110 high-level vulnerabilities. Bitshares contains 4 high-risk bugs and 665 medium ones, the highest number among all projects.
Ethereum Wallet, Hlp-candidate and OmniJ are found bearing zero or only one high-level bugs and therefore considered the most secure projects among all units being audited.

It is very interesting analysis noteworthy to study accuratelly:

http://news.8btc.com/blockchain-software-security-report-by-china-cert-ripple-the-worst

Hi,

I have a question regarding your own BTC faucet. Is it profitable to run it in 2017?
I was thinking to run it via WordPress.
What initial investment is needed?

Hi,

you can hire me as your project/campaign manager.
I'm also open for any other services, escrow, for example.
I'm offering a full transparency and fairness.

If you are interested, please contact me here or pm me to discuss all the details.

Hello,

you can rent my signature and avatar to advertise your services.
I'm making 30-40 posts per week on topic.
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PM me if you are interested.

[What is .com bubble?]

There are many parallels between the famous .com bubble and cryptocurrency space. Some authors and experts point to this example trying to explain what will happen with cryptocurrencies in the future. If you take into account cryptocurrencies seriously, you'll see that bunch of altcoins are useless projects but on the other hand some are showing signs of future growth and real utility cases.

What is .com bubble?

The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom, the tech bubble, the Internet bubble, the dot-com collapse, and the information technology bubble) was a historic speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2001 during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the Internet sector and related fields. While the latter part was a boom and bust cycle, the Internet boom is sometimes meant to refer to the steady commercial growth of the Internet with the advent of the World Wide Web, as exemplified by the first release of the Mosaic web browser in 1993, and continuing through the 1990s.

The period was marked by the founding (and, in many cases, spectacular failure) of several new Internet-based companies commonly referred to as dot-coms. Companies could cause their stock prices to increase by simply adding an "e-" prefix to their name or a ".com" suffix, which one author called "prefix investing."  A combination of rapidly increasing stock prices, market confidence that the companies would turn future profits, individual speculation in stocks, and widely available venture capital created an environment in which many investors were willing to overlook traditional metrics, such as P/E ratio, in favor of basing confidence on technological advancements. By the end of the 1990s, the NASDAQ hit a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 200, a truly astonishing plateau that dwarfed Japan's peak P/E ratio of 80 a decade earlier.

The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999–2001. Some companies, such as pets.com and Webvan, failed completely. Others – such as Cisco, whose stock declined by 86% – lost a large portion of their market capitalization but remained stable and profitable. Some, such as eBay.com, later recovered and even surpassed their dot-com-bubble peaks. The stock of Amazon.com came to exceed $700 per share, for example, after having gone from $107 to $7 in the crash.

I don't not completely agree that we'll see the similar pattern in crypto space. Actually, I'm optimistic towards the survival of some altcoin projects. However, it is clear that in the future most of the projects will disappear. The prospects and future of blockchain is also obscure. There are many problems around Bitcoin as well: governance issues, centralization, power consuming and nature unfriendly mining, miners and developers debate, marketing, adoption, fees etc. If these problems remain unresolved, I'm sure that we'll see another coin to take crown from BTC. But it is just my opinion.

What do you think about .com bubble parallels with cryptocurrencies?

Today National Bank of Abu Dhabi has introduced real-time cross-border payments on a blockchain by integrating technology from industry firm Ripple. The offering will immediately benefit the Asia-Middle East remittance corridor.

It is a positive news from Ripple as their technology could benefit banking system. Bank of Abu Dhabi is:

the largest lender bank in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi with assets of $178 billion, the NBAD is also the second largest lender in the United Arab Emirates and the largest by market cap among all UAE banks. Its footprint in a number of major Asian remittance markets including China and India could see a telling impact in the wider banking industry, one that could fast-track adoption of blockchain technology for core commercial offerings like payments for users.

Read full article here:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/abu-dhabis-largest-bank-just-launched-blockchain-cross-border-payments/

Please share your opinion here about it. Does it benefit further blockchain technology adoption in finance industry? Does Ripple will benefit from this integration?
How the market will react to the news?

It seems that a second round of Bitcoin price crash just started after PBOC said that they will continue inspection of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/breaking-pboc-says-site-inspections-bitcoin-exchanges-will-continue/ 

[For only 0.001 BTC you will get steady income to your Bitcoin wallet.]

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