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If everyone hasn't read the breaking news, Japan has approved a massive stimulus package to "ease the burden of inflation".
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
THAT doesn't actually make sense because bringing financial stimulus is INFLATIONARY, plus I believe Japan's inflation is already sort of high?
But why the stimulus package? I believe it's probably because the BOJ/Japanese government is expecting a liquidity crisis/economic crash and has front-ran it.
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This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X. 👀  Shower thought. Is this where the paradigm shift starts from a main Store Of Value such as Gold transfer to Bitcoin? If the markets is used as a measure of this, then let the market speak. Bitcoin may never stop surging until it reaches the total market value of Gold, and continue surging over that. |
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I use an old Trezor One, and I want to ask for all of your wallet software suggestions to use for my old Trezor. I currently use Electrum, but I need a better UI/UX.
I also don't like to use the Trezor Suite. Furthermore, I use the wallet just for Bitcoin, although I won't mind if your suggestion is a multi-coin wallet if it has good UI/UX.
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Aaron van Wirdum wrote the best article about the block size debate entitled, "The Long Road To Segwit. Currently he has another article about another debate/drama that's currently happening in the Bitcoin community entitled, "Bitcoin Core or Bitcoin Knots: What The OP_RETURN Debate Is Actually About". Every pleb in BitcoinTalk should read/understand the issue, and if you need to, you should express your opinion/viewpoint. A new default setting in the upcoming Bitcoin Core release, Bitcoin Core 30.0, has caused a rift through segments of the Bitcoin community. Some users have indicated they won’t upgrade to the new release of Bitcoin’s most-used client, or switched to running Bitcoin Knots: a software fork of Bitcoin Core maintained by OCEAN CTO Luke Dashjr, a vocal critic of the change. The debate is quite technical, about a seemingly minor issue. Bitcoin Core 30.0 will start to relay transactions across the network with bigger OP_RETURN outputs: transactions that embed arbitrary data (like text or images) in a specific way. This appears to be a minor change because Bitcoin Core (and Bitcoin Knots) nodes do already accept these transactions once they’re included in a block, while they also relay transactions that store arbitrary data in other ways. But the update has caused a rift because it reflects deeper concerns. The “Bitcoin Knots perspective” Bitcoin Knots proponents generally dislike that transactions can contain arbitrary data, or as they usually call it, “spam”. But so far, most have begrudgingly accepted this as an unfortunate side effect of the Bitcoin protocol. They do believe this type of usage should be discouraged, however. When Bitcoin Core developers did this in the past by imposing a limit on the size of OP_RETURN outputs that nodes relayed, it indeed appeared to make some people decide to take these kinds of use cases to other cryptocurrencies instead of Bitcoin. (Most notably, this is commonly explained as the “origin story” of Ethereum.) The updated relay policy in Bitcoin Core 30.0 in their view symbolizes the end of such resistance. It signals to “spammers” that they are welcome on Bitcoin. One concern is that this will increasingly draw in this class of users and projects. And because Bitcoin block space is limited, using it for data storage will fill blocks up quickly, in turn driving up transaction fees, perhaps to the point where many regular (“monetary”) transactions are priced out because of it. Another concern is that, even though arbitrary data can already be embedded in different ways, OP_RETURN makes it a bit easier to parse this data compared to other methods; it takes a little less effort to turn it into (say) an image. This, Bitcoin Knots proponents worry, also increases the risk that inclusion of illicit materials like CSAM (child sexual abuse material) could result in regulatory pressure on node operators. If the problem is that Bitcoin Core developers are not resisting the spammers, Bitcoin Knots represents this resistance. Even if they can’t prevent arbitrary data from being included in the Bitcoin blockchain, or not prevent it completely, they at least won’t help open up an additional avenue for it. In effect, they’d be signaling that spam is not welcome, which they hope will have a discouraging effect. Assuming this discouraging effect succeeds in keeping the spammers at bay, Bitcoin Knots proponents say, Bitcoin can continue to be used for what it was originally intended: monetary transactions. The “Bitcoin Core perspective” People can store arbitrary data on Bitcoin’s blockchain in various ways. Indeed, in recent years many people stored images in Inscriptions, and it could even be embedded in public or private keys. Most Bitcoin Core developers do agree with Bitcoin Knots proponents that none of this is great, and it’s not what Bitcoin is intended for. But out of all these options, using OP_RETURN is the least harmful method, because it minimizes a computer’s resource consumption, thus keeping nodes as affordable and accessible as possible. As such, Bitcoin Core developers figure that rather than trying to resist the use of OP_RETURN, it’s better to just allow it; limiting probably only makes matters worse, and possibly much worse. For one, just refusing to relay these transactions technically doesn’t achieve much. These same transactions could still be relayed by some other nodes, like Libre Relay nodes, or they can be submitted to miners directly to be included in blocks. This in turn could have a centralizing effect, as direct submission would presumably be done to larger miners disproportionately, who then benefit from the extra fee revenue at the expense of smaller miners. (There are also some nuanced detriments for nodes themselves if such transactions do make it into a block anyways.) The more robust solution — and arguably the logical next step — is to render (big) OP_RETURN transactions invalid through a consensus protocol upgrade (soft fork), so they can’t get mined at all. But the problem with that, as already noted, is that people might use other, more harmful methods to store data on the blockchain. (In fact, many already prefer to use Inscriptions because this is significantly cheaper for bigger chunks of data like images.) In theory, some of these methods could be blocked as well. But most Bitcoin Core developers foresee that this will only lead to a game of whack-a-mole, with “spammers” resorting to different methods each time. It would incentivize them to “disguise” their data like regular transactions, which could lead to a situation where monetary transactions and arbitrary data become increasingly indistinguishable from each other. The only solution left in this stage might be to designate some person or group to make judgement calls about which transactions are acceptable and which are not, in effect introducing some kind of entity that has the power to impose censorship. Bitcoin Core developers (themselves a rather amorphous group of contributors) have no interest in taking on such a role — not least because they don’t wish to become a target for regulators that could force them to abuse this power — and prefer Bitcoin not to go down this path at all. Instead, they generally expect that the problem will resolve itself over time, without their interference. This is because a monetary transaction is relatively speaking a tiny bit of data. A single Bitcoin block can fit thousands of them. Other types of data tend to be much larger; just one image can fill up an entire block. This means that a single “spammer” typically has to outbid many regular users. Given enough demand for monetary transactions, using Bitcoin for data storage quickly becomes expensive. Arbitrary data should in this scenario be priced out and disappear organically. Most Bitcoin Core developers agree that Bitcoin should be a network primarily for monetary transactions— but not because they’ll actively resist other use cases, rather because this is how the incentives of the system already align. So now what? Everyone is free to use whatever software they want, whether this is Bitcoin Core 30.0 (with or without touching this default setting), an older version of Bitcoin Core, Bitcoin Knots, Libre Relay, or anything else. In this sense Bitcoin users are, in a very real way, sovereign. Judging by sentiments on social media platforms like X, it does seem that some non-trivial segment of users won’t upgrade to Bitcoin Core 30.0, or indeed switch to Bitcoin Knots. But it’s impossible to tell how big of a share of Bitcoin’s user base this really represents. It could be a large majority… or it could be a small (and loud) minority. Either way, Bitcoin does not operate like a democracy. Because every node typically relays transactions to multiple others, if even a relatively small minority of users choose to run Bitcoin Core 30.0 (or Libre Relay or something similar), larger OP_RETURNs should in fact propagate rather freely. This probably can’t be stopped completely, but assuming Bitcoin Knots proponents want to at least meaningfully stifle this, they’ll need to convince some supermajority of node operators (perhaps 95% or more) to join them in their filtering efforts. If they fail to do that, running Bitcoin Knots can be seen as a voice of dissent— but one with little practical effect. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-core-or-bitcoin-knots-what-the-op_return-debate-is-actually-about |
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Someone asked who and whose past predictions deserves praise this cycle. I believe that person did it during 2011. It's THIS, and he/she is/was ANONYMOUS, Although the actual price is currently 10x more than his prediction, THAT is definitely STILL the greatest foresight and prediction in BitcoinTalk. |
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👀 Is this actually true, or is it mere FUD? In general, perhaps if anyone has strong conviction on which side of the fork they believe truly is "the Real Bitcoin", then they should probably sell all of their coins from the fork that they say is "wrong" and HODL the coins from the side of the fork that they believe is "right". It's laughable, but during the block size debate Mike Hearn showed his conviction/sold all of his Bitcoin, and THAT truly deserves some respect. |
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We all know that the Federal Reserve is usually LATE in making major adjustments in Economic Policy. They cut rates, but unemployment still surges weeks/months after causing a recession. We all also know that Powell's basis for his decisions is "the data", WHICH has already happened a month or two/three months before it is on his desk.
Therefore, the question - Is Trump right to force Powell to cut interest rates as soon as possible?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Bitcoin was designed to be trustless and secure — but what happens when the engine that powers its security starts running dry? https://budget.day/BlockChair made an educational website about Bitcoin and its Security Budget. I believe that EVERYONE should read through the whole site and LEARN, especially if a "debate" about the network's security funding "issues" presents itself. But if it doesn't become an actual issue, I believe that it's still something to learn from from the viewpoint of what's making the network stick together. Incentives. |
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The meeting today will probably be streamed through the Federal Reserve's YouTube Channel, https://www.youtube.com/@federalreserve/streamsBut if you have a better link please post it in the topic. The latest articles and opinions on the matter of what Jerome Powell might announce is that he will keep the rates the same where they are currently for the past six months. The last time he changed it was during December 2024 when he reduced it by 25 basis points. |
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👀 There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression. This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months. At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos. His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months. https://x.com/corbtt/status/1927821116057309685 |
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It's very obvious that OP's "request" in this topic is absurd, and it's also probable that OP might not actually be a "newbie". He/she probably IS trolling, no? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5543890.0But for some very strange reason, or probably not, the members of BitcoinTalk still engage in those sorts of topics - the topic also reaches ten or more pages which is actually laughable. I believe mods/admins should delete those topics without warning to discourage their creation and the engagement they receive. |
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Here's a nice website that gives the users the latest economic/political news, a "scoring system" on who's leading the "war", and some short analysis made through A.I. https://tradewars.strykr.ai/But the scoring system in site should NOT be an actual guide on who's actually "winning". It's a mere source of information to keep plebs like us updated of the facts. Plus the topic might also be a good place to discuss the, actually stupid, "Tariff Wars". |
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This is not an official forecast/release by the Atlanta Fed, but this is the latest forecast using the same data as the Atlanta Fed. 👀 If this quarter is OFFICIALLY negative, and the next will also be OFFICIALLY negative, then that would make the U.S. economy be in a "Technical Recession". It's actually what Jerome Powell is waiting for to turn the Money Printer on.  Latest estimate: -2.4 percent — March 06, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points.  https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow |
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👀 Translated to English through Google Translate,
"Zheng Zhajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, announced the establishment of a "carrier-class" national venture capital guidance fund with a total of 1 trillion yuan. Focusing on cutting-edge fields such as AI, quantum, hydrogen energy + fields mentioned in the government work report of the two sessions, such as biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, 6G, etc., patient capital, early investment, small investment, and long-term investment, to solve the initial funding difficulties of science and technology enterprises.
Before the Spring Festival, top AI expert Huang Ru was transferred to the party group of the National Development and Reform Commission, which triggered heated discussions. It is expected that his areas of responsibility include major AI investment projects"
"Patient capital", I believe, are those sort of investors who give a long-term viewpoint towards the industries that are being built. Tesla became profitable after ten years, Amazon after eleven years, and there are many other such examples. But because of "patient capital", those businesses made it and actually started new industries because of their success. |
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Because there are some trolls spreading disinformation in the forum, and also playing 3D Chess, then does everyone also believe that each user's trust-rating should be shown below our names everywhere in the forum, not merely in Marketplace, Trading, and Gambling subforums?
I believe it would better help the newbies, and everyone in general, in avoiding the false-narratives and the lies of those more sophisticated trolls.
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I believe that the name for that subforum, "Scam Accusations", makes everyone believe that every service that has a complaint in there has a higher probability to be a scam.
Would it be good if the admins of BitcoinTalk change the name to something like "Issues and Complaints"? The name "Scam Accusations" might be too aggressive, no?
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For my fellow plebs who simply can't HODL their precious Bitcoins, and for them to satiate their need to gamble on shitcoins. If you want to "trade" then you must "trade". BUT, there's no need to convert your Bitcoins to another coin for another blockchain. In Saturn, you could trustlessly swap Runes - the shitcoin protocol built by Casey Rodarmor on top of the best blockchain in the world, Bitcoin. https://www.saturnbtc.io/ |
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ROSS IS COMING HOME IN JANUARY!! We are so so grateful to @realDonaldTrump for his pledge to #FreeRoss and to all those who have supported us. Here's to this 12th Thanksgiving in prison being the last one! - The Ulbricht family https://x.com/free_ross/status/1854560687713927541 Congratulations to Ross and the Ulbricht Family! After twelve years, ROSS can finally be with his loved ones, especially his MOTHER who has always been fighting for HIS freedom. Thanks to President Trump for keeping the most important pre-election promise for a person who was losing hope. |
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 The most important move was a 20bp cut to the benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate, bringing the new rate to 1.5% from 1.7%. Given previous patterns, markets had been leaning toward expecting multiple 10bp rate cuts, so a 20bp cut represents a slightly stronger than expected move. However, the net impact will depend on whether we see further cuts ahead or whether the PBOC falls into a wait-and-see mindset after today's policy package. The second more well-signalled move was a 50bp cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR), bringing the RRR for major banks down to 9.5% from 10.0%. This move in our view is mostly to help buoy sentiment, as the current issue is not banks lacking the funds to lend, but rather a lack of high-quality borrowing demand amid downbeat sentiment. As we saw with the February RRR cut, this is unlikely to have a major impact on credit activity by itself, but in conjunction with the rate cut could help support credit activity. https://think.ing.com/snaps/pboc-unveiled-a-monetary-policy-easing-package-in-bid-to-support-growth/It's not turning on their money printer to make to go "BRRRRR", but this is definitely a stimulus package to encourage more spending and growth in China's economy. For the doubters/bears, that probably will confirm that we are indeed in a bull cycle, no? What are the best investments that's not Bitcoin?
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BITCOIN, as a back-up/fall-back if the legacy banking system is disrupted or fails, FIXES THIS.
But I believe their engineers and their software/cyber security experts will fix the issue, but what if there's a multi-month long disruption in your country's banking system, and when digital payments/debit cards/credit cards are down or are unreliable?
HODL those precious Bitcoins as a savings account, and use them only if you have no other choice.
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