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Quick update on my thoughts - long term, as we may be getting into a rollover in price again. On the daily chart (normal scale) you'll already recognize a trend line break. But given the volatile nature of BTC, and its remarkable resilience so far, I tend not to read too much into the chart on normal scale. For those nonetheless interested, here it is:  Instead - I am closely looking at the weekly chart on semi-log scale. Given the large percentage wise swings we're looking at. Here are your red alert levels to watch for the coming weeks. No trend broken, yet. Should the trendline be broken, however, then brace yourselves for a target of $32 - $64. [ RSI and MACD (not shown here) show either a the old negative crossing (RSI) and an about-to-happen negative crossing (MACD). ]  (sorry, but you will need to zoom with your browser to get a good look) "And hey... Let's be careful out there!"Willy |
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Here is my take on the situation...
If BTC is EVER going to be a currency (instead of a commodity that it is right now) we are in desperate need of a TRUE spreading amoung a vast amount of exchanges. I'd like to see more than 50 exchanges (at least) in order to be able to talk about some independent price formation, and stability from within the system.
YET...
For the time being, any Mt.Gox assault by either/and US/Japanese authorities WILL pose a major setback to BTC. As long as it lasts, I know, but IT WILL. There is simply NO way ordinary people are going to adopt BTC when exchanges are either unreliable, filing fraudulent bank enrollment forms, closing after some months, etc. etc.
Bitcoin deserves better than what we've seen over the past weeks.
But let's be honest: it will fail in an epic way if the problems about exchanges won't get addressed at last... And let's be honest once more: that is a problem when having such a decentralized currency... All we can hope for is enterpreneurs willing to setup competing exchanges, and to conduct their business in a moral & lawful way.
I just can HOPE for the better.
Meanwhile, I would not be surprised to pick up BTC at a WAY lower price before the dust settles... Double digits might well be on their way IMHO. And meanwhile, I am also reducing my risks/exposure and/or uplifting my profit potentials by partially positioning myself into Ripple as well (now don't laugh -yes, that IS legitimate, and it is in fact a BUSINESS well run, contrary to the fukcing-up by Mt.Gox)
To those whom it may concern,
Willy
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I'm not going to say the long term picture is looking great to me. No, it is not. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197014.0 for some thoughts. Yet - the BTC seems resilient. It actually managed to improve a bit. Short term, that is. I went long, after staying on the sidelines. Since the reward/risk trade-off is now better. (In fact, I re-entered the market at about the same price after fees as the price at which I left). What to expect then? Well, I am looking for a short leg up now that the short term downward sloping trendline has been broken. See the chart: 1. Notice how it bounced off the $123 level today. This is the 50% correction level from the last $166->$79 leg down. We've also got a level of resitance at $125. Looking for symmetry in the market, taking the 0.618 x up-leg 1 would produce $126 as a target. Pretty much near one another... So expect tough "work" at that level. 2. Going forward, if the level breaks (most likely IMHO) the next level sits at $132-133: the two fibonacci-levels from the previous decline converge there. (Meaning: the two fib-retracement levels from the leg $266->$50 and $166->$79). Interesting. Not a point of symmetry, though, so once $125 is cleared I would just expect some temporary resitance here. 3. 100% symmetry for the legs 1 / legs 2 would get us around $143. Intererting level, since it coincides with the starting point orf the recent violent downturn ($147 -> $79). 4. Coul we go higher? Yes, of course, BTC always can  but I suspect we'd be getting into parabolic events by that time. Maximum (on extension 1.382) would get us to $ 161,- and former resistance sits at $166.  So my best guess would be to see $143/$147. From a market symmetry standpoint of view. Yet, the market may decide otherwise, and at each of the levels the market will provide you more info. So let's just see what happens at each of these levels. As of writing this, I see a small pop-down towards 117.6 (after hitting the first level). Looks like a normal retracement to me. Once the targets are met (max $166) I would be looking for downward scenarios within the bigger picture I outlined. "And hey... let's be careful out there..." |
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Hi all, Though some might like to be bashing the OP  here's a chart that I keep long term. NO - I do NOT know where the market will be. YES - I just look at what the market is telling me. Right now, short term, I am wary of the market (see my post at http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197014.0This is for informational purposes. A weekly chart with technical analysis. Logarithmic scale. Do with it, as you like. You're a free person  Just don't blame me for posting, should things go "really bad". (But what is bad?  ) I am watching those weekly levels (these are the values of the green upward sloping intermediate trend line). Everything I want to remark is noted in the chart, just notice how stuff converges, also with the recent $79 level !!). Based on this weekly chart, my best "guess" at this moment would be a re-test of $80. THAT will be the main level to check upon. To see whether the intermediate trend line will break, after we've already seen a negative RSI-crossing (which, beware, just by itself does not mean the sky will fall...) SHOULD the support levels break, then brace yourselves, as we may be heading all the way down to $30 per BTC. (All the way down to the yellow upward sloping long term trendline) SHOULD the support levels hold, however, then we're in for (far?) more price appreciation. Keep looking what the market is telling you at those levels. That's basically my point.  |
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Hi all, I'm anxious about current price formation. For one, MtGox is once again showing tremendous lag (about 1 minute, that's just insane). Something seems to be fucking up their systems again. Even though big orders came through just during the last minutes, those participants were not able to push the price above $123 / $124 per BTC. [edit : I see the lag is now back to normal, but clearly something was going on around the $123 level ]  NOTE: this happens at an inflection point in the chart (the downward sloping trend line). But most important of all, what I'd like to point at, are the volume characteristics of recent. These volume characteristics are definitely NOT healthy. For if a trend remains in tact, VOLUME should always support PRICE movement. After the initial crash ($266->$50) we've seen a wild rally back to $160. That was on decreasing volume compared to the volume during the preceding shake-out (but OK, it was a shake out). The 2nd part of the rise to $166 acutally showed an increase in volume, a peak, and falling volume on the price decline $166 -> $120. That would have been a positive, if only... the price would not have broken down again (all the way to $79) on an increase in volume. That latest increase in volume (on a price decline) was already a negative for any price appreciation. To make things worse, however, the recent upturn, from $79 to $124 today, is happening on considerable smaller volume. In other words, volume does not support the recent price appreciation either.  Given all of these circumstances, the most likely thing to happen is another leg down (full disclosure: for that reason I bailed out of my entire position).
If the new leg down materializes, it can easily set BTC back into the range of $50 - $80. That would hurt. Expect massive selling (and unreachable exchanges  ) if that happens. Should all this not materialize, I'll be happy to buy me my bitcoins once the markets looks healthy again. Be it at a higher price, I'm perfectly okay with that since that would greatly reduce my risk. Right now, the market simply does not look healthy. "And hey, listen... be careful out there" |
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Hi all,
There is a lot of talk about LTC coming to MtGox. I have no information, whether MtGox would do so in due time, and I am not willing to enter into the rumoring that is going on. I just want your opinion, since being able to trade LTC through MtGox may have serious impact on the price of BTC as well, as BTC holders may be pulling out money from BTC into LTC. (On the price effect on LTC : please see the other poll).
Give your best shot at your vote,
Willy
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Hi all, There is a lot of talk about LTC coming to MtGox. I have no information, whether MtGox would do so in due time, and I am not willing to enter into the rumoring that is going on. I just want your opinion, since being able to trade LTC through MtGox may have serious impact on the price of LTC (and on the price of BTC as well, see the other poll). Disclaimer: actually, there is too much of rumoring about all this, IMHO by nitwits that think they can pump the LTC price .
I am looking at it without prejudice: if LTC is "the next" thing, it will hurt my BTC holdings. On the other hand, I am perfectly fine with rising LTC prices as well, as it will only add value to my above-average LTC position.
Give your best shot at your vote, Willy |
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