[Strategic Trading and Manipulation with Spot Market Power]

most comments i read and heard after CME announced that they will list  Bitcoin Futures in Q4 2017 ..
where the sorts of  MOON! wallstreet flood gates about to open!, etc..


for me personally that news left a  sort of bad aftertaste...



here is why

it is now very invietable that the bitcoin markets "spot" and futures will be heavily manipulated which may lead to a nosedive
(after a prolonged upmove) which we havent seen in a long time affecting average joe  , mom and pop etc.. , and the outcry for a regulation
of the bitcoin markets will be huge , which will be bad for btc in the longterm.. and may verywell be the first nail in the coffin...

just some examples which you can see and mirror easily on the bitcoin markets

Strategic Trading and Manipulation with Spot Market Power

Abstract

When a spot market monopolist holds a position in the corresponding futures market, he has an
incentive to deviate from the spot market optimum to make this position more proftable. Rational
futures market makers take this into account when setting prices. We show that the monopolist, by
randomizing his futures market position, can strategically exploit his market power at the expense of
other futures market participants. Furthermore, traders without market power can manipulate futures
prices because their trades can strategically reveal to market makers similar trades by the monopolist.
The moral hazard problem stemming from spot market power thus provides a venue for strategic trading
and manipulation that parallels the adverse selection problem stemming from inside information.

https://www.wu.ac.at/fileadmin/wu/d/i/finance/wissenschaftlMitarbeiter/M%C3%BCrmann_Alexander/Bilder-Dateien/muermannshore.pdf

Detecting price artificiality and manipulation in futures markets: An application to Amaranth

Abstract

In this article we propose a general method to test whether economic data support the claim of futures market manipulation.
We examine the question of whether or not Amaranth manipulated the market for natural gas futures using three alternative methods.
The first is our contribution to the existing body of literature on the analysis of manipulation claims.
The subsequent two have previously been discussed in the literature. All three methods yield the same result: economic data
on futures prices and Amaranth's trades do not support the claim that Amaranth manipulated the natural gas futures market in 2006.


https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/jdhf.2012.7


DETECTING MANIPULATION IN FUTURES MARKETS:
THE FERRUZZI SOYBEAN EPISODE

Abstract:

 Market manipulation--the exercise of market power in a futures market--is a
felony under US commodity law, but recent court and regulatory decisions have made
conviction of a manipulator problematic at best. Instead, regulators attempt to prevent
manipulation through various means. Deterrence is more efficient than prevention if
manipulations can be detected ex post with high probability. This article examines a
particular episode of attempted manipulation--the Ferruzzi soybean episode of 1989--to
demonstrate how to detect manipulation in a commodity market. The analysis
demonstrates that it is exceedingly unlikely that the price and quantity relations observed
in May and July 1989 were the result of competition; they are instead reflective of market
power. The ability to detect manipulation reliably suggests that existing regulation of
manipulation in futures and securities markets is inefficient because it relies on costly
preventative measures rather than ex post deterrence.


http://www.bauer.uh.edu/spirrong/ferrpap3.pdf


Silver Thursday: How Two Wealthy Traders Cornered The Market

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/silver-thursday-hunt-brothers.asp

Who is Mr. Copper?

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/mr-copper-sumitomo-hamanaka.asp

Insight From “The Flipper”: Catching up with Paul Rotter

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/696397-traderdaily/85609-insight-from-the-flipper-catching-up-with-paul-rotter

finally , it is a bitcoin forum afterall

HOW TO MANIPULATE THE BITCOIN MARKET

http://www.bsic.it/manipulate-bitcoin-market-introduction-13/
http://www.bsic.it/manipulate-bitcoin-market-23/
http://www.bsic.it/manipulate-bitcoin-market-33/

well


if you thought BTC will end up beeing the one world currency.. you might be wrong...

bitcoin started the whole new craze of digital computerized value exchance..


but the real value is the gate to new technology bitcoin opened.. and that is where most of the money is flowing..


ethereum and its tokens, iota, etc..

the technology behind all this new tech. is interresting.. and bitcoin will hold its place as a storage of secure wealth..

while other technololgies will be used as transacting value/service/goods etc..

so hodl your btc but be prepared for exchanging other tokens....

würde gerne IOTA gegen  LTC erwerben.. wer hätte interesse ?

.....

BTC
ETH
LTC
NEO
IOTA
RISE
PAY
CLOAK
MTL
OMG
TRX
QRL

fellas


what is the next 'hype" on the horizon , good or bad ?

hard fork? , BU vs. Segwit ? , another ETF ? , something else ?

lets see on march 11 

till now btc's supply and demand is purely driven by fullfilled and unfullfilled expectations... whereas expectations feed on shoeshineboys, news good /bad, alltime highs and mostly futurology  backed by complicated computer science mumbojumbo which your average joe blow (me) doesnt comprehend...


the best advice i can give (joeblow)  is buy  physical bitcoins , cassascius etc. with money  you can afford to lose and hodl!

even if the btc experiment fails you at least hold some memorabilia , which may end up beeing of great value to some collectors in the future..
or at least you got something to show to your grand kids (been there done that got the  bitcoin)

all the best

cheers

Just to valuate the forums sentiment on BTC


you are free to post your opinions why u are a Bull or a Bear...

Well , as my POV comes  from a trading / investing background


i see a bright future in BTCs value  because of...


1.) What ive read in forums etc. is that Most/all early adopters or  lil late early adopters (but still chumpchange price)
     are all willing to hold onto their bitcoins ! ie. the STRONG HANDS wont sell! at least not all of it! and its the first time that the STRONG HANDS arent
those griefe Insititutions like GOLDMAN SUX BANKSTERS etc..  its YOU and Me! average Joe 

2.) Those Strong Hands are not your average Banksters! they have ideals! and more! they dont need to sell
     they even gained buying power! ie. they can and will/did  Relief a Panicy situation! for the good! not for profit!




well.. the ones willing to sell and who sell regualry are the miners.. and for godsake keep it on! .. they are more then happy to see a raise in price
and wont DUMP the market to press price down.. for their own sake! .. keep it on Miners!


anyone else .. like late comers / BTC Rushers/ Soldiers of Fortunes/  Investors / Anti Govs.. etc... are the Herd... and for the first time its NOT the WallStreet who is the Sheperd !

cmon , there are only three scenarios wich could form ATM on BTC ..


that is ....


Strong


Weak


Neutral



wich one u choose? .. WoudaCoudaShouda... 


just follow Price...

Hi


due to recent actions , i would like to discuss or request a subforum for analysis of bitcoin market outlooks , commentaries etc..
as it seems that most of that stuff is scattered arround on the boards like : Trading/Economics/Speculation ..  i would like to keep those
forums clean as there can arise some trouble due to not knowing where what sort of analysis belongs to and therefore request a new Sub Forum ,

please discuss respectfull .. thank you !

..  tired of all the topics like .. when will the bubble burst? , where are we trading in 20XX ? will it hit 100,000 Usd ?
 etc.. bla bla..


guys/gals  ..  just focus on what is happening NOW ! .. participate or not !

Hi


i will post analysis of BTC charts along with market insights , trading ideas ,and educational material here

the most recent analysis: high res: https://i.imgur.com/j4gfnkB.png


and a video of that breakout :

in this video of todays  breakout to new highs u will have  some comments why a bet on a breakout was a good idea
and how that breakout happened (cause and effect)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zMG00-T2bq0

enjoy (more to come)