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1  Economy / Speculation / Poll: Bear trap or Bull trap? on: May 27, 2017, 11:40:35 PM
Where are we in the this current cycle?

Is this a bear trap (correction) as "early investors" take profits before this current bull run goes truly main stream? (We might be looking at $5K-$10K if the bull run continues)

OR

Is this a bull trap before we see a complete capitulation over the next few days and weeks? (We might see a price somewhere around 2013 ATH - not that we should hold much value in that ATH given the circumstances)

OR

Something else?

Personally I liquidated about 30% of my crypto portfolio including BTC at around $2350. I'm targeting a fairly aggressive/pessimistic re-buy in at $1500 for BTC ($60 for ETC, $0.05 XRP and $15 XMR), but we could see lower IMO if we continue to go down. (I'll be happy either way - the majority of my portfolio is all based on BTC bought at $50-$70)

If we see consolidation at around this $1900-2000 level into the middle of next week I'll consider my options again. Still, this will be no guarantee that we are not going side ways for some time or haven't started a longer term bear market.

Ultimately I think BTC has some very serious problems to address at the moment before we really have the fundamentals to move beyond the recent peak and truly go mainstream. These are precarious times for BTC, especially when you have alts which, whilst far more overvalued IMO, could be said to have better fundamentals in terms of tech and developer adoption. IMO, it would be far more healthy for BTC if this correction/crash forced miners and devs to get their shit together and we saw some stability and calm return to the markets. I think everyone is exhausted both mentally and financially.

Thoughts? Smart considered analysis seems very thin on the ground the moment in all this craziness...
2  Economy / Economics / Measures/Indicators of Volatility for Bitcoin? on: May 04, 2013, 12:56:25 PM
Hi All,

I've been wondering if there is any good indicators or some kind of measurement/index that gives an indication of how volatile the price of a commodity/stock/currency is based on some period of time other than basic statistical calculations.

I came across things like Sharpe ratio and the more intuitive Modigliani–Modigliani measure which look at the reward-to-variability ratio, which I think might be interesting to look at for Bitcoin.

I'm fairly ignorant of such financial indicators and formulae - so I guess I'm interested in whether anyone out there is looking at such things and whether they are appropriate in regards to Bitcoin.

Thanks in advance for any replies.
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