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1  Economy / Speculation / How far below $10k in 2021? on: March 24, 2021, 09:25:25 PM
If you're familiar with good math and science and have done the work to confirm using good sources, then you know bitcoin will be below $10k sometime in 2021 <---fact. How soon do you think it will be below $10k and by how much? Interested in your scientific opinions.
2  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin, I salute your final ATH. on: February 28, 2021, 05:41:53 PM
My original calculations were a little off and I did not expect fake news to push bitcoin's last bull run as high as ~$58k $60.4k $61.8k $63.2k $63.7k $63.8k $63.9k $64.5k $64.9k. The power of fake news is powerful. So there it is, the highest price bitcoin will ever see -- ~$58k $60.4k $61.8k $63.2k $63.7k $63.8k $63.9k $64.5k $64.9k. The next decade will be the story of the unwinding of bitcoin and all the chaos that will unfold as that process plays out. Congrats to anyone who sold at ~$58k $60.4k $61.8k $63.2k $63.7k $63.8k $63.9k $64.5k $64.9k, and good luck to the rest. I hope everyone is able to find an exit soon enough not to lose everything. Cheers, everyone. It's been a fun experiment, but this is the official, confirmed end.

3  Economy / Speculation / Where do you think Bitcoin will be by the end of [insert time here]? on: July 19, 2019, 10:00:47 PM
For example, I think the price of bitcoin will be higher than it is now by the end of 2019.

Share your thoughts here. All are welcome.
4  Economy / Speculation / This time is different on: December 22, 2017, 04:47:49 PM
I'm being serious. This drop is different. The number of people involved is enormous (e.g. cryptomoms). Bitcoin (and ultimately all cryptos) will not recover from this one. Too many people will be burned here for the market to sustain itself. We're finally (finally!) at the beginning of the end. I've confirmed this with multiple sources.
5  Economy / Collectibles / [WTB] Original Times Newspaper from 3 January 2009 on: December 08, 2017, 06:55:14 PM
Anyone want to sell me a copy?
6  Economy / Speculation / the price will recover just like it did from the mtgox debacle over 2 years ago on: August 03, 2016, 06:51:19 PM
7  Economy / Speculation / The Death of Bitcoin as Confirmed by Data on: July 08, 2016, 02:39:43 PM
I've been studying bitcoin for years now, and have fully confirmed my fear from a few years ago -- that ultimately bitcoin is doomed to failure. All the data I've seen confirms this and anyone can check it with analysis of their own by technical analysis data, as I have confirmed. Just check the Chinese and Russian sources, as have been confirmed by my TA analysis and multiple linear regression study.

The best course of action at this moment is to sell if you have bitcoin and not buy bitcoin if you don't have bitcoin. That course of action is confirmed by the available data and will prevent losses. I'm simply offering this advice to help people not lose money on a dying technology. Feel free to review the data yourself. It's very clear. These news, data, and charts should be concerning and demonstrate with confirmed facts that bitcoin is nearing the end of its life. Maybe something better will come along, I don't know. But unfortunately, bitcoin has failed and is collapsing. See below:
8  Economy / Speculation / 3 years ago...let's reminisce on: June 06, 2014, 04:19:56 PM
So, almost exactly 3 years ago a lot of us were euphorically watching as bitcoin blew through the $20 range and into the $30s.  Not long after reaching nearly $33, there was a series of relatively large sell-offs into pretty thin bids, and that ultimately bottomed out around $10.

The price "recovered" to around $17 and then we were all epically goxxed with an insane hackcrash from $17 to, basically, $0.  It was gut-wrenching.  I was on my way to the gym when it happened and casually opened the price app on my phone to see the price was under $10.  I was a little disturbed, but it's bitcoin.  At another stop light I checked again and the price was under $5.  That's when I called my wife and frantically attempted to explain to her how to log on to MtGox and put in a sell the time she logged in the price was $0.25 and I said, "well, shit, it's pretty much all gone..."

Share your story.
9  Economy / Speculation / point of maximum pain on: March 31, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
I'm not convinced we are there yet.  Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times.  I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track.  I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it.  Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet.  In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain.  Sorry, and thanks.
10  Economy / Speculation / SHOTRING BITCOIN: This is a good idea right now on: January 17, 2014, 03:07:38 PM
With so much bad news, as documented here and here, and so much more to come, combined with the fact that bitcoin's utility has been exhausted and its market share is saturated, it's pretty clear that the only way from here is down, in virtually all time frames (definitely medium to long term, it might bounce up just a little, but it will only be a temporary wobble on the way down).  Many of us around here know this, and we post about it often in order to help people.

This thread is a place to discuss the best ways to SHOTR bitcoin for maximum profit.  Post you tips and best successes here.
11  Economy / Speculation / Confirmed Bad News Sources Thread - No FUD, Just Facts!!!1 on: January 12, 2014, 03:30:52 PM
Please use this thread to only post confirmed news from confirmed sources to help everyone understand what is obvious - bitcoin is in a downtrend to oblivion.  

My latest find comes, of course, from official sources in China and details how the Chinese government is planning a massive 99% attack on the blockchain.  I'll put the main points below, but anyone can check the facts from the source:

1.  Chinese offials delcare bitcoin a global financial virus
2.  Officials from other nations are in agreement with china China, including the US
3.  The Chinese government has millions of petahashes ready to deploy on the blockchain to destroy the protocol
4.  In addition to attacking the blockchian, China will sell all their mined bitcoins on MtGox

It's obvious bitcoin has gone as far as it can go, but any other thoughts about this devastating news?
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / PSA: News and new accounts on: December 18, 2013, 11:57:40 AM
My last thread demonstrated my point beautifully, but I just want to be absolutely clear here:  This forum (and r/bitcoin) is being trolled by a horde of new accounts posting essentially the same things and linking to the same obscure "sources".  Somebody or some group is taking advantage of the language barrier between the East and West.  It worked.

What's happened around here is similar to the SA mob in 2011, just applied to market manipulation instead of merely to troll.
13  Other / Off-topic / [FUD] Alert: Bad news, from sources! 嚇人的話 <---Proof on: December 18, 2013, 03:57:46 AM
We all know that some really awful news has been fully confirmed here by the Chinese Ministry of Source Confirmation at the PBOC.   Officially, the facts are as follows (I'll provide with sources where possible, google the rest for proof):

(1) Bitcoin cannot be bought and sold.  This is absolutely true in China as of 48 hours ago.  See the section titled "壞事嚇得互聯網賺錢"
(2) China plans an international committee to prevent all banks, worldwide, from interacting with the word "bitcoin".  This was also confirmed by some twitters.  Unfortunately, they were quickly deleted, but the head of Paypal confirmed this 2 hours ago here.
(3) Satoshi appears to have been captured.
(4) China has plans to shut bitcoin off, not just in China, but worldwide.  I can't find the link for this one, but it's a chinese website called "Sinai" or "Sinu" or "Sina" or something like that.  Just google it, you'll find solid proof.

It looks like this is the end of bitcoin.  If you can sell and get your money out, you probably should.  Quarkcoin is probably a safe investment for now.
14  Bitcoin / Meetups / 2013.11.18 Senate Hearing - Anyone going? on: November 15, 2013, 08:14:07 PM
I'm probably going to be off Monday, and I'm toying with the idea of taking a trip to DC for the hearing.  Anyone else going?
15  Economy / Speculation / I think it's time for me to move on on: April 30, 2013, 02:51:27 AM
Here's the thing - I really like bitcoin.  Every time I actually use the system, I'm instantly reminded of why I thought this thing was so cool in the first place.  In a way, I've become a victim of my own trolling, just as some of you have suggested.  Here's my story.

I found out about bitcoin in late February/early March 2011.  A few weeks after investigating the idea I decided to start mining.  My decision to mine instead of buy outright was motivated by the fact that I was in the market for a new gaming PC anyway, and so mining was a sort of hedge against the market working against me.  I turned my machine off a few months after the 2011 crash.  I also bought a fair number of bitcoins before May 2011.

I was enthusiastic about bitcoin and new to markets and trading.  The 2011 crash was depressing and it changed me.  This, despite that I was lucky to more than double the number of bitcoins I mined and bought before the crash.  The project began to look like the sort of thing that was being torn apart inside an out.  I became a vicious troll, because, in a perverse way, I wanted to help what seemed like the project's inevitable end.

At some point my awful trollishness became too much and I issued an apology for my tone, but not my content.  I trolled on, just with less vitriol.  As the project recovered I began to fight with myself.  My trollish character had sort of developed a mind of its own, even as I began to appreciate bitcoin's innovation and value again.  I developed a sense of obligation to the community to post as Proudhon The Toll because of a community expectation and, in a way, to balance out over-zealousness with the same thing in the other direction.

When I switched gears and began posting bullishly not long after this most recent crash I was playing to the joke that I had become a sort of contrary indicator.  "Playing" the character of a more even-headed optimist made me realize that, well, that's not really a character, because I am actually optimistic about bitcoin, even if cautiously.

This is sort of a good-bye to the speculation forum, though I might stick around and respond here for a little while.  I intend to spend more time discussing bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, in political/economic/and philosophical contexts, and so you'll find me posting on and other places in areas more suitable for those sorts of discussions.  It's been extremely educational, depressing, exciting, frustrating, and fun around here.  I think I've ultimately learned what I needed to learn from the speculation forum - I'm not a bitcoin trader, I'm an investor and a user.  And yes, my paper wallets are safe and sound.
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Can bitcoin websites handle a Colbert Bump right now? on: April 18, 2013, 03:23:56 AM
Not sure how I feel about this.  It's neat that it'll be talked about in that forum, but I'm not sure most bitcoin services are prepared for the kinds of loads that things like Colbert can bring.
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / PSA to new users of bitcoin on: April 14, 2013, 04:36:04 PM
This thread and others like it worry me.  I suspect a lot of people are buying and have bought something they don't understand, and I'm concerned that thefts are going to increase as a result.  If this is you, please read this.


To access your bitcoins and transact with the network you're going to use a wallet.  This will either be a piece of software you install on your computer or an online wallet service like  The wallet jargon is just a convenient way to refer to what's going on under the hood.  Every Bitcoin address has an associated private key, and the private key is really just a string of numbers and letters.  You can only spend bitcoins at addresses for which you also have the associated private key.  If you happen to find somebody else's private key, then you can import it into other Bitcoin clients or online wallets and then you have the ability to spend any coins associated with that private key's addresses.

Most wallet clients give you the option to encrypt your private key.  Please do that.  That means you can protect it with a password.  You will be asked for this password to create transactions.  Your login password serves that purpose, for example.


Use strong and unique passwords.  That advice applies to your entire online life, really.  If you use weak passwords and/or you don't use unique passwords, then you are at risk of somebody guessing your password using a computer designed to make lots of guesses.  If your passwords are not unique that gives attackers the opportunity to compromise more than one service.  It's best to use a mix of lower case, upper case, numbers, and symbols in your passwords.  Your passwords should also be sufficiently long, around 16 characters, for services that you would really hate getting compromised.  You should still use unique passwords for services you don't consider critical, but for those services you might not feel it's necessary to use long passwords with a mix of all character types.  Of course, this is all up to you.

Passwords managers can help you organize lots of strong, unique passwords.  Lastpass is a fantastic password manager.  It works across all the major browsers and they even have mobile apps.  You create one really, really strong password that you must never forget, and then Lastpass organizes and remembers all of your other passwords for you.  Lastpass encrypts all of your data before it's sent to their servers, so they can't see your passwords.  If you forget your Lastpass password, then you lose access to passwords stored with them, unless you remember them or have them stored somewhere else.

You can make strong passwords easier to remember by increasing their length with a relatively simple pattern while still using each character type.  This is called password padding.  Security researcher Steve Gibson explains by comparing two passwords:

Which of the following two passwords is stronger, more secure, and more difficult to crack?



You probably know this is a trick question, but the answer is: Despite the fact that the first password is HUGELY easier to use and more memorable, it is also the stronger of the two! In fact, since it is one character longer and contains uppercase, lowercase, a number and special characters, that first password would take an attacker approximately 95 times longer to find by searching than the second impossible-to-remember-or-type password!

Strong, unique, but memorable passwords depend on using all character types and adding memorable length.  You really should also avoid dictionary words and common modifications of simple dictionary words (e.g. dog, d0g, etc.)  Consistent with the advice to use unique passwords, you wouldn't want to use the same padding technique for more than one critical password.

Multi-Factor Authentication

Many online services (e.g. gmail,, MtGox, Lastpass) offer the option to use multi-factor authentication.  If this service is offered, you should use it.  This means that you need more than your password to log into your account.  It can come in the form of a number sent as a text to your phone, a usb key that must be plugged into your computer, or an app like Google Authenticator.  When you log into a service for which multi-factor authentication has been activated you will be asked for both your password and an additional pin sent to or derived from a separate device.  This offers you some protection from key loggers which an attacker can install on your computer to see everything you type.  Even if they discover your password, they will be unable to log in without the additional pin from, say, your phone.  A previously used pin will not work, they would need one generated specifically for the most recent attempt to log in.

If the email provider that you use offers multi-factor authentication, and you use that email to register for important services (e.g. online banking, bitcoin wallets, exchanges, etc), then you should definitely enable multi-factor authentication.  If an attacker can compromise your email, then they can potentially access lots of websites your registered at, because they can ask the websites to reset your password.  Websites typically send a password reset email under the assumption that only you have control of your email.  If you don't, an attacker can change the passwords to your web services.  By enabling multi-factor authentication on your email, you can significantly decrease the odds of an attacker compromising your email.  You should likewise use multi-factor authentication with any password managers you use, if you choose to use one.

This might all seem very inconvenient.  However, the security gained far outweighs any convenience lost.

Advanced Bitcoin Wallet Security

The most secure way to safeguard your bitcoin value is to create and keep your private keys on systems that cannot be hacked into.  This can be a computer that is setup without ever touching the internet, or paper wallets.  A paper wallet is just some text based way to represent your private key.  An attacker cannot compromise an offline computer without physical access, and he would additionally need to know the passwords to log onto your offline computer.  If you have offline systems such as offline computers or paper or other physical wallets, then obviously the attack vector is basically physical burglary.

The Armory bitcoin client is a client designed to maximize security options.  Armory makes it relatively painless to setup an offline wallet.  A computer does not need to be connected to the internet to create valid bitcoin private keys with associated bitcoin addresses.  That's because their creation is determined by algorithms that can be copied and run on any computer with or without network connections.

With Armory you can setup offline bitcoin wallets.  In order to send bitcoins to that wallet you just need to copy an address created on the offline computer.  The offline wallet can create what's called a "watching only wallet".  This is a wallet you can import into an online installation of Armory on a different networked computer.  From the online watching only wallet you can see bitcoins sent to your addresses and you can create unsigned transactions.  You can try to broadcast an unsigned transaction, but it will not be confirmed in the blockchain, and is not a valid transaction.  In order to send the transaction into the blockchain and have it validated you will need to copy the unsigned transaction to a USB device, import it into the offline Armory wallet, sign the transaction, then copy and move it back to your online Armory wallet.  From there, it can be sent and received as a valid bitcoin transaction.  In this way it is made practically impossible for a network attack to steal your bitcoins.

It's a good idea to create additional offline backups of your Armory wallets.  Armory has a feature to create printable offline backups.  These can be used to restore your wallet in the event that your offline computer is destroyed or stolen.

Systems like this are more inconvenient, but offer the highest level of relatively easy to setup security.

Thanks, welcome to bitcoin, and stay safe.

18  Economy / Speculation / DDoS = the new starfish on: April 13, 2013, 06:24:43 PM
19  Bitcoin / Press / 2013-3-28 Arstechnica - Experts pour cold water on claim that Cyprus crisis caus on: March 29, 2013, 12:42:04 AM
20  Economy / Speculation / The MtGox exchange rate will not exceed $100/BTC in 2013 on: March 28, 2013, 09:33:36 PM
Sorry folks, I'm pretty sure the top is finally in, and we're probably heading into long-slow-slide round 2.  I hope everyone had fun.  If the MtGox* exchange rate does exceed $100/BTC in 2013, then I'll give 1BTC each to the first two people to post in this thread who have a post count between 20 and 300.

*I'll count CoinLab too, if that ever becomes a thing

Edit:  Congratulations to Kalinka and Crazy!  Most likely you will not get anything.
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