Back when crypto was skyrocketing last year I could not figure out why. It did not make sense, not much had changed technically but all of a sudden prices started to skyrocket like some major leap forward had taken place and we were on the verge of mass adoption. The reality is that none of that happened, nothing really changed, most of the chains are exactly where they were technically even before the rise.

So why did it all go up. I as a technical person , a rational person could not find any fundamental reason for it. Sure some markets may have had more access due to exchanges opening but why would they buy so much higher than it was? Global currencies aren't changing that much the stock markets aren't dive bombing?

   The answer in my opinion is that these new markets blowing up were not interested in crypto and its value proposition. To them crypto was a gambling opportunity. Value was not what mattered, what mattered was making a bigger and bigger bet and winning. This transition has transformed the cryto market into more of a casino of possible bets. People buy tokens and coin like they were a spin of the roulette wheel. The more people joined the game the higher the price went and the more you want to bet since you are winning.

    Now come the whales. These guys are like the house in a casino, they know that the market is full of degenerate gamblers now and those becoming degenerate gamblers. They setup new coins , pump them and suck in as many gamblers as possible to dump into them. Their goal is to become the game of the week be it a coin or ico.

   I see crypto as a giant gambling fun house for the world right now. The technology just facilitates and enables a world of gamblers glued to their screens try to win bets. Just like themed gambling machines in casinos icos and coins are all pretty much the same except for the characters and the theme. I expect eventually a lot of people are going to get hurt by those who know whats going on and the gamblers are going to end up where all gamblers end up , more broke than they were or bankrupt.

The only thing keeping crypto going is the centralized financial system they wish to replace. If they decide they are no longer willing to facilitate the transfer of funds to exchanges or exchanges are ruled illegal, it all goes to 0. I turns out today's centralized financial systems are the ones securing today's public blockchains, not crypto, or decentralization. It really doesn't even matter how decentralized or crypto secure your blockchain is when economics are being used to secure it. The only way for a blockchain secured by economics to become impervious is to outright replace the centralized financial system, I do not see them allowing that to happen.

I've been gaming it out and I see no way for it to coexist as it is a direct adversary to the global central banking system we exist in. Crypto eventually causes a global run on the banks once we reach a tipping point where average people start demanding crypto over fiat. This triggers a derivatives explosion (1.3 quadrillion dollar market) the global financial system implodes and all fiat debts are erased. What is left is complete chaos all public services go unfunded, pensions evaporate, companies go under due to their fiat assets evaporating. A new order arises but who the fuck knows that that will look like, world war 3 style military actions begin.

  I do see government intervention before it goes that far and it will be the draconian kind. They cannot coexist since crypto cannot be centrally controlled , regulated or tracked due to cross chain interactions which are undetectable. I only see one path for them and that is waging war on crypto public chains. Long jail time for hosting or participating, extradition and global cooperation since not cooperating might as well be a declaration of war.