Well, for what's worth i see this way: sideways into triangle with some short term bearish bias:  Triangle breakout will ignite next move ( eyes on MM20/W ). Whatever, so far trend on monthly may still play like this:  A bull run would require reaching (first place) about 12.800$, hence triggering Parabolic SAR reversal + piercing of upper BB. |
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Well, MA20/W is running at about 8270$.
It's also middle of weekly BB.
Let's see.
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Yes, we need to break through that descending channel with authority before making big plans for a new bull market.  Exactly. |
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There is a decent Buy signal ? If you look at the Chart there is a EMA10/50 Bearish Cross. This is not a good signal or not ? The last time we had an Bearish Cross was at June 2019 and the Price just moved a litte bit Up and then we fall down
Sorry mate, i do respect your opinion, but you're making quite a bit of confusion here. About the buy signal, that's referred to the first chart ( Chaikin Money flow ). You can cross-check candlestick chart to see the past outcome. About the second chart ( candlestick chart ): no EMAs nor any EMA10 are painted there. These are simple, not exponential moving averages. What you actually see in the chart are weekly MA20 (red), MA50 (blue), MA100 (green) and MA200 (brown). Both MA200 and MA50 are rising, MA100 seems about to flatten. Only MA20 is clearly falling. Speaking of what you define a "EMA10/50 Bearish Cross", that's actually a MA50/MA100 "bullish" crossover ( i hate the terms "death" or "golden", but theoretically it would be the latter ). Last time we got this kind of "bullish" weekly crossover was not on June 2019, but rather in May 2016, almost 4 years ago ( marked below with a black up arrow ). Basically it marked the inception of the latter bull run, which saw price stabilizing over MA20 (red). I think the simple chart below is pretty self explanatory:  Basically -so far- price is making sort of a rhyme with 2015/2016. The whole point is nowadays MA50/100 crossover was a bit on the weak side and MA20 is still over price, so it's now acting as resistance. This latter fact is what i thought worth reporting in my previous message. For now i can't call this scenario bearish, will wait for test of resistance in order to make further considerations. All in all i think that here VOLUME ( or LACK of ) will be the key. |
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Just stumbled on this, nice points. Personally i'm looking at Chaikin money Flow as historically it used to give a decent BUY signal on weekly TF when breaking out its dynamic resistance after painting a pocket under zero, e.g.  Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and just below weekly MA20 (red).  |
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Chart and Weekly RSI Falling wedges, even on RSI ( Look at 2014-2015 ). Monthly RSI / Stoch RSI Both within their historical support area ( 2014 / 2015 ). Should bulls be able to have them close above support in january then anything may happen ...
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 A pullback to the edge of the wedge is likely, but it's ... almost there. Volume is the key. |
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In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon. So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish. It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...  Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer? Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range? Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like: "Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... " Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon" TM. Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon. This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long. PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now. I'm not sure, actually. Volume is increased, but uninpressive so far. Cannot rule out a fakeout. To go further down on Bitstamp price should pierce through MACD /12H dynamic support  Otherwise rebound expected. On Bitfinex support did hold so far. Moreover still within BB and Keltner. Still squeezing. I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.  We'll see. At least we've got some action. |
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In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon. So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish. It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though. as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout.  AND we got a falling wedge on Bitfinex + Keltner channel squeeze.  BUT Weekly volume is close to historical low for the last 2 years. No volume = no signal. |
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Moving at a very slow pace. Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze. Global OBV:  Local OBV: ~snip~ Few days left for (A). Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant". @ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?  No, see the 3 horizontal blue dashed lines. Technically it's above resistance now on Bitstamp, but it does not look like that on Bitfinex yet.  Anyway, no volume no buy. Take a look at this as well:  We need that support to hold in order to hope for a breakout without moving lower. |
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It's worth mentioning that a new page has been published on Bitfinex website. It's titled "Fiat on Bitfinex": https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360010505034-Fiat-on-BitfinexFor sure this page didn't exist prior Oct 9, 2018. It's likely it has been published today ( "updated 7 hours ago" ). It says: All traders on Bitfinex trade with USD (fiat), not USDT. In line with this, all trading pairs on Bitfinex are placed against USD, not USDT.
USDT on Bitfinex is used as a transport layer, used if a trader wishes to deposit or withdraw in e.g. Omni USDT or Ethereum USDT. Until the trader specifically chooses to transport their fiat in Tether-denominated USD, all their fiat holdings on Bitfinex will be held in the form of fiat USD.
Traders can get both USD and USDT onto Bitfinex through means of direct deposits. Please note that in order to both deposit and withdraw USD (in fiat or USDT denomination), a user will need to be fully KYC-verified.
Two considerations: - Bitfinex has a Bank again.
- Bye bye Tether ?
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Moving at a very slow pace. Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze. Global OBV: Local OBV:  Few days left for (A). Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant". |
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We're entering an interesting week ...   Last, but not least ( at all ):  It's either capitulation or sudden reversal and it's just a few days away ( likely ). Mind the CME furures expiration on 28th. Good luck. |
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Awaiting daily close for break-up / W bottom #1 confirmation. Looking good so far.  |
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Moment of truth ahead.  From here we may expect either W bottom (#1) confirmation or a local double top. No way around. In the former case we would evaluate a long term flat bottom hypothesis ( yellow area, 5700-8500$ ). Good luck. |
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 Why not ... We'll see. |
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If the leading signal on the 4-hr MACD goes upwards through 0, I may take a gamble and buy. Slowly creeping upwards now.
 Looking good, wedge broken. Yet the problem is volume. Anyway take a close look at ETHBTC / 1D , hammer on good volume yesterday (and close to historic support). Bear in mind an altcoin rally can ignite a BTC rally, eventually. Good luck. |
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About to make its move.  Keeping an eye onto that alligator, who knows ... Anyway, it's a descending broadening wedge imho. |
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OBV / 1D
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