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983
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 23, 2018, 06:02:19 PM
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6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019
With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply: a) turn off the machines, or b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level. Guess which one is more likely to happen. Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better ASIC chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new ASIC chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip. I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered. However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  Kinda concerning really. Is that last bug and we're all fixed now? Whew!  Inflationary bug? First I've heard inflation was actually possible for btc. What is the likelihood it was planted there intentionally? Maybe someone just discovered a hidden pot of bear juice. Sorry, gotta ask cause that's a pretty big banana. |
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985
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 23, 2018, 02:48:02 AM
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A piece of a photo from this morning. Can you identify the subject? More to come. Derp... probably far too easy. But bitcoin isn't moving.  Crystals, almost ripe for harvest, no amber yet.. And I thought there'd be at least one guess, lol. Really just wanted to show off one of my girls  2 more weeks if weather allows.  |
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994
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 18, 2018, 09:46:23 PM
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As for volatility, I am pretty much waiting for the next bear trap to buy in again. Now is the most uncertain time for a new wave of newbie buyers and people are going to exploit that.
How the psychology of fear keeps people from buying the bottom.. I think this is a very certain time in the market. I think the price was more likely to go down at any time during the pump than now, after it is already down.. New ATHs are what scare me.. all time highsBut when people see ATHs they feel brave and greed? Totally nerve wrecking for me also (watching the price rocket waiting for the consequences.) Hopefully the next time we reach 20K it isn't on the handle of a hockey stick. |
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996
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 16, 2018, 09:07:38 PM
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A home is a capital depreciating asset. Bitcoin isn’t.
Not in my experience. My home and properties have only appreciated in value. Maybe you bought in the wrong location? Did it, or did the measurement stick devalue? Nice, toushe, it's a bit of both in my neck of the woods. My original sentiment was one of home appreciation. A solid base to work from, ground, root can be paramount to future endeavours. Personally I was way less likely to invest in anything before I owned a home. So it's appreciated not only with my money but also my time. |
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998
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 16, 2018, 03:31:58 PM
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No pain, no gain.
This doesn't feel painful what's painful is the wife making me sell for the down payment on a home and soon. I'm going to lose out big. Owning your own home is a great thing and often a decent investment for your money and relationship. Sounds like you might not have been able to make the down payment if you hadn't been in BTC for awhile. Congrats! Another success story sprung from BTC. Anyhow, you'll be rebuilding your position again soon. Make sure you negotiate for the interest rate, those things aren't in stone at the banks. |
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